Stochastic analysis of the hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean and its recent climatic variations

The Mediterranean region is regarded as highly vulnerable to climatic changes, affecting its hydrological cycle. This study examines key hydrological processes, such as precipitation, temperature, humidity and evaporation, using Reanalysis datasets to analyze recent climatic variations. Given the stochastic nature of the hydrological cycle, we employ the Hurst-Kolmogorov (HK) stochastic framework to evaluate the persistence properties of the involved processes given the observed climatic variations and compare the results with white noise and Markovian simulations. Additionally, synthetic scenarios are generated to simulate processes with similar persistence properties. The findings offer valuable insights into the dynamics of the Mediterranean hydrological cycle and the impact of climate variability.