Probabilistic analysis of wind speed and investigation of wind power production in Greece

I. Pappa, Probabilistic analysis of wind speed and investigation of wind power production in Greece, Diploma thesis, 181 pages, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, May 2014.



The scope of the herewith thesis is to investigate locations across Greece, that feature high wind potential. In respect to this scope, wind speed data from 56 meteorological stations, have been acquired and analysed. Specifically, the temporal and spatial variation of the statistical characteristics of the annual wind speed is being researched. Furthermore, what is also being studied is the capability of Weibull distribution to describe adequately the distribution of the recorded wind speed data. The parameters of the theoretical distributions have been estimated by implementing methods of L-moments and Maximum Likelihood Estimation, and have been assessed using the Kolmogorov – Smirnov statistic, the mean square error and the root mean square error. Subsequently, the theoretical maximum wind potential of the considered wind station is calculated using the samples’ distribution and it is compared to the maximum wind potential raised from the parameters of the theoretical distributions. Then, the real power generation of a wind farm located in Kefalonia Island, is compared to the one that could be produced according to the recorded wind speed data of the island’s meteorological station, as long as the theoretical one acquired from the Weibull method. In the direction of evaluating the embodiment of the wind power generation in the high-voltage power transmission system, actual data of the hourly wind power production of the last five years (2009-2013) is analysed. Temporal variations of the capacity factors of the monthly, annual and seasonal wind power production and other critical characteristics are being depicted in accordance to the progress of the wind load connection. The basic characteristics that affect the balance of the transmission system are also examined. Finally this thesis investigates the contribution of wind power production in the coverage of the national’s power transmission network demand load for the year 2009 and analyses the contribution of the wind power production in the formation of peak load and in the coverage of the daily loads on periods of peak demand.

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