BLUECAT: Un metodo innovativo per stimare l’incertezza di previsioni di deflussi fluviali [BLUECAT: An innovative approach to assess uncertainty of river flow simulations]

We present a new method for simulating and predicting hydrologic variables and in particular river flows, which is rooted in the probability theory and conceived in order to provide a reliable quantification of its uncertainty for operational applications. Our approach, which we term with the acronym "Bluecat", results from a theoretical and numerical development, and is conceived to make a transparent and intuitive use of the observations. Therefore, Bluecat makes use of a rigorous theory while at the same time proofing the concept that environmental resources should be managed by making the best use of empirical evidence and experience. We provide an open and user friendly software to apply the method to the simulation and prediction of river flows and test Bluecat's reliability for operational applications.