T. Iliopoulou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Have Rainfall Patterns Changed? A Global Analysis of Long-Term Rainfall Records and Re-Analysis Data, 47 pages, SR 306, The Heritage Foundation, Washington, DC, USA, 2025.
[doc_id=2521]
[English]
Amid concerns of intensified water cycle during global warming, the scientific attention on rainfall dynamics and its extremes is increasing. Global trends in rainfall totals and extremes are investigated using long-term rainfall station data—spanning more than 150 years for rainfall maxima and more than 200 years for total annual totals, as well as rainfall re-analysis products—covering the entire globe. Rainfall exhibits significant interannual and multi-decadal variability, greater than that of a purely random process, yet with no systematic pattern. Regional differences are pronounced, with some regions showing increased rainfall variability and notable changes, while other regions are characterized by stability. The findings suggest that global rainfall trends and extremes do not align with a global systematic change that could be attributed to a single driver, such as rising carbon-dioxide emissions. This emphasizes the need for stochastic models rather than deterministic projections for future hydroclimatic predictions.
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Tagged under: Climate stochastics, Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics, Rainfall models, Stochastics