AFORISM: A comprehensive forecasting system for flood risk mitigation and control


Duration: June 1991–May 1994

Budget: 17 300 000 DRS (about €83 900)

Commissioned by: DGXII / FP6-SUSTDEV-2005-3.II.1.2

Contractor: University of Bologna


  1. National Technical University of Athens
  2. Ente Regionale di Sciluppo Agricolo
  3. University College Cork
  4. University of Newcastle
  5. Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne
  6. Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Lisbon
  7. Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble

Project director: Th. Xanthopoulos

Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis

Programme: EPOCH

The aim of this project is the development of a comprehensive flood forecasting system and the study of alternative management policies intending to flood risk mitigation. The Greek research team contributes to AFORISM in the following tasks: (a) the analysis of intense rainfall events and their classification by weather type as well as the modelling of intense rainfall and the production of alternative hyetographs of temporal evolution of rainfall; (b) the comparison of the alternative rainfall-runoff models, using multiple time steps in modelling rainfall-runoff and applying it to Greek hydrological basins. The contribution of the other research teams deal with: (a) the forecasting of spatial-temporal evolution of rainfall using limited area models; (b) the development of optimisation models in order to mitigate flood risks; (c) the development of an expert system for flood management; (d) the development of a geographical information system for visualisation of the evaluation of flood and its consequences; and (e) the integration of the forecast and control system in the Reno basin (Italy).