A trendy analysis for the identification of extremal changes and trends in hydroclimatic processes; application to global precipitation

V. Skoura, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, M. Crok, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A trendy analysis for the identification of extremal changes and trends in hydroclimatic processes; application to global precipitation, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-17889-1, European Geosciences Union, 2018.

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[English]

During the last decades it has been trendy to identify trends in extreme phenomena and attribute them to anthropogenic climate change. Although the majority of analyses tend to identify increasing (and sometimes decreasing) trends in hydrometeorological extremes, there are a few works that show no significant change in the distribution tail of the processes. A few analyses have shown that changes in the extremes can be adequately explained by the Hurst-Kolmogorov (HK) behaviour. In this work, we test the tail behaviour of several well-known distributions when combined to an HK model. Finally, we provide illustrative examples on whether or not the observed variability in precipitation extremes could be explained by the HK behaviour.

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