E. Klousakou, Stochastic investigation of short-term predictability of basic renewable energy resources with application on the non-connected island of Astypalea, Diploma thesis, 91 pages, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 2020.
Energy demand worldwide is predicted to increase in the coming decades due to various economic and social reasons. Consequently, since fossil fuels deposits decrease dramatically due to overexploitation, renewable energy resources initiate to gradually substitute them. However, natural processes, from which renewable energy derives from, are characterized by an inherent degree of uncertainty that is introduced to the energy system. A recent study suggests that unpredictability and determinism may coexist in nature, defeating the prevailing theory that randomness is a component to predictability. The current thesis investigates the predictability time-window of wind speed and solar radiation processes by applying sensitivity analysis that compares a stochastic algorithm to a naïve one. A pilot application of a hybrid renewable energy system in the Greek non-connected island of Astypalea is also discussed, for which the significance of uncertainty is examined by exploring the uncertainty of the input of natural processes and by defining the predictability window in specific processes, as well.
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