Development of a hydrometeorological forecasting model for the ephemeral basin of Sarantapotamos

A. Zarkadoulas, Development of a hydrometeorological forecasting model for the ephemeral basin of Sarantapotamos, Diploma thesis, 210 pages, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, July 2014.



The research on flood forecasting in Greece is very limited. Μost flood studies use relationships and methodologies developed in basins abroad. This paper attempts to approximate a methodology to flood forecasting in Sarantapotamos ephemeral basin, based on regional relations for the greek meteorological and climatological conditions. Specifically, it is firstly developed by the hydrological simulation model HYROGEIOS, which is developed by the research group ITIA especially for Greek basins, an optimal set of physical-based parameters for the Sarantapotamos basin, using an appropriate shaping of surface and groundwater system of the basin. This set is obtained by calibrating the basin Sarantapotamos on rainfall and runoff data from installed meteorological and hydrometric stations for a period of 2.5 years, and simulates efficiently the observed runoff time series and especially their maximum values. Then, eight forecasting rainfall scenarios are obtained by the National Observatory of Athens, for a selected rain episode in the basin of Sarantapotamos, which are analyzed and compared with the observed values of rainfall for the same period. The scenarios create forecasts for the rainfall in the installed meteorological stations through optimization of the participation of the nearest to the stations grid points and also rainfall forecasts for sub-basins, using the average forecast of all grid points within their area. In addition, 7 further scenarios of rainfall forecasts are produced for each methodology, through successive averages of previous forecasts. Finally, the created forecasting scenarios are introduced as rainfall data to hydrological model HYDROGEIOS, to produce the runoff time series based forecasts, which are compared with the observed values in order to indicate the most appropriate methodology for runoff and consequently for flood forecasting.

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