Investigation of the global temperature change using econometric methods

A. Georgiadi, Investigation of the global temperature change using econometric methods, Postgraduate Thesis, 64 pages, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, 2018.



The current time period, mankind experiencing the transition of the climate system of the present state to a new equilibrium position. However, it is particularly complex to investigate the causes of destabilization and to estimate the spatial distribution of impacts due to the high degree of freedom of the system. This thesis is attempted, using statistical methods of time series analysis, to reflect the correlation between the global temperature change (independent variable), and the variables: (a) Total Solar Irradiation (TSI), (b) Multidimensional Southern Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI); (c) Aerosols Optical Depth (AOD); and (d) Carbon Dioxide concentration (CO2). The results of estimating the econometric model chosen demonstrate that the change of the temperature anomalies can not be interpreted only based on the variable related to the concentration of CO2 (anthropogenic variable) but also requires that account be taken of the variables associated with physical parameters, such as the MDI index, the solar radiation and the optical depth of the aerosol.

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