P. Mavritsakis, A stochastic simulation framework for representing water, energy and financial fluxes across a non-connected island, Diploma thesis, 150 pages, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, July 2019.
Integrated modeling of hybrid water-energy systems, comprising multiple energy sources, conventional and renewable, pumped-storage facilities and other hydraulic infrastructures, which aim to serve combined water and energy uses, is a highly challenging problem. On the one hand, such systems are subject to significant uncertainties that span over all associated inputs, physical and anthropogenic, i.e., hydrometeorological processes and water-energy demands, respectively. On the other hand, their everyday operation is subject to multiple complexities, due to the conflicting uses, constraints and economic interests. Taking as example a future configuration of the electric system of Ikaria Island, Greece, we demonstrate a stochastic simulation framework, comprising: (a) a synthetic time series generator that reproduces the statistical and stochastic properties of key input processes (i.e., reservoir inflows and wind speed) at multiple temporal scales; and (b) a simulation module employing the hourly operation of the system, to estimate the associated water, energy and financial fluxes. In this context, several problems are examined, under alternative policies and assumptions. Generally, these can be classified into two categories, i.e. the optimal design of key system components, and the real-time operation of a hypothetical energy market, involving three energy providers and associated electricity sources, i.e. hydroelectric, wind power, and thermoelectric.