Stochastic rainfall forecasting by conditional simulation using a scaling storm model

N. Mamassis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and E. Foufoula-Georgiou, Stochastic rainfall forecasting by conditional simulation using a scaling storm model, 19th General Assembly of the European Geophysical Society, Annales Geophysicae, Vol. 12, Supplement II, Part II, Grenoble, 324, 408, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.1241.3682, European Geophysical Society, 1994.



Based on the recently developed scaling model of storm hyetograph, a conditional simulation scheme is presented, which can be used for stochastic forecasting of the temporal evolution of rainfall. The scaling model is fitted to hourly rainfall data of Greece and Italy. In addition, the model is tested for capturing statistical properties that are not explicitly used for the fitting. The scheme is formulated so as to use any information known for the rainfall event, as a condition for the simulation. The conditional simulation scheme is applied in two steps: first we generate the duration and total depth of the event and then we disaggregate the total depth into sequential hourly depths. Two different types of conditions are examined. The first one concerns the incorporation of preceding hourly rainfall depths. The second is related to information given by meteorological forecasts from which we can approximately estimate the duration and total depth of the event.

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Our works that reference this work:

1. D. Koutsoyiannis, and D. Pachakis, Deterministic chaos versus stochasticity in analysis and modeling of point rainfall series, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 101 (D21), 26441–26451, doi:10.1029/96JD01389, 1996.
2. D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, On the representation of hyetograph characteristics by stochastic rainfall models, Journal of Hydrology, 251, 65–87, 2001.

Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):

1. Nalbantis, I., Real-time flood forecasting with the use of inadequate data, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 45(2), 269-284, 2000.

Tagged under: Rainfall models, Scaling