Στατιστική ακραίων τιμών και εκτίμηση των ακραίων βροχοπτώσεων, 1, Θεωρητική διερεύνηση

D. Koutsoyiannis, Statistics of extremes and estimation of extreme rainfall, 1, Theoretical investigation, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 49 (4), 575–590, doi:10.1623/hysj.49.4.575.54430, 2004.

[Στατιστική ακραίων τιμών και εκτίμηση των ακραίων βροχοπτώσεων, 1, Θεωρητική διερεύνηση]

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[Αγγλικά]

Η κατανομή Gumbel είναι το επικρατέστερο μοντέλο για την ποσοτικοποίηση του κινδύνου που συνδέεται με τις ακραίες βροχοπτώσεις. Διάφορα επιχειρήματα, που συμπεριλαμβάνουν θεωρητικούς συλλογισμούς και εμπειρικά στοιχεία υποτίθεται ότι υποστηρίξουν την καταλληλότητα της κατανομής Gumbel. Αυτά τα επιχειρήματα εξετάζονται λεπτομερώς σε αυτήν την εργασία και τίθενται σε αμφισβήτηση. Συγκεκριμένα, οι θεωρητικές αναλύσεις δείχνουν ότι η κατανομή Gumbel είναι αρκετά απίθανο να ισχύει για ακραία υδρολογικά γεγονότα και η χρήση της μπορεί να εκτιμήσει εσφαλμένα τον κίνδυνο δεδομένου ότι υποτιμά σοβαρά τις πιο ακραίες βροχοπτώσεις. Εκτός αυτού, αποδεικνύεται ότι τα τυπικά υδρολογικά δείγματα μήκους μερικών δεκαετιών μπορούν να εμφανίσουν μια διαστρεβλωμένη εικόνα της πραγματικής κατανομής και να οδηγήσουν στο συμπέρασμα ότι η κατανομή Gumbel είναι ένα κατάλληλο μοντέλο για τις ακραίες βροχοπτώσεις ενώ δεν είναι. Επιπλέον, συμπεραίνεται ότι η κατανομή ακραίων τιμών τύπου ΙΙ (ΑΤ2) είναι μια συνεπέστερη εναλλακτική λύση. Με βάση τη θεωρητική ανάλυση, στο δεύτερο μέρος αυτής της μελέτης γίνεται εκτενής εμπειρική διερεύνηση χρησιμοποιώντας μια συλλογή από 169 δείγματα βροχοπτώσεων, από τα πιο μακροχρόνια διαθέσιμα παγκοσμίως, που καθένα έχει μέγεθος 100-154 ετών. Η διερεύνηση αυτή επικυρώνει τη μη καταλληλότητα της κατανομής Gumbel και την καταλληλότητα της κατανομής ΑΤ2 για τις ακραίες βροχοπτώσεις.

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Εργασίες μας στις οποίες αναφέρεται αυτή η εργασία:

1. D. Koutsoyiannis, A probabilistic view of Hershfield's method for estimating probable maximum precipitation, Water Resources Research, 35 (4), 1313–1322, doi:10.1029/1999WR900002, 1999.
2. D. Koutsoyiannis, and G. Baloutsos, Analysis of a long record of annual maximum rainfall in Athens, Greece, and design rainfall inferences, Natural Hazards, 22 (1), 29–48, doi:10.1023/A:1008001312219, 2000.
3. D. Koutsoyiannis, The Hurst phenomenon and fractional Gaussian noise made easy, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 47 (4), 573–595, doi:10.1080/02626660209492961, 2002.
4. D. Koutsoyiannis, Statistics of extremes and estimation of extreme rainfall, 2, Empirical investigation of long rainfall records, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 49 (4), 591–610, doi:10.1623/hysj.49.4.591.54424, 2004.

Εργασίες μας που αναφέρονται σ' αυτή την εργασία:

1. D. Koutsoyiannis, Statistics of extremes and estimation of extreme rainfall, 2, Empirical investigation of long rainfall records, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 49 (4), 591–610, doi:10.1623/hysj.49.4.591.54424, 2004.
2. D. Koutsoyiannis, Uncertainty, entropy, scaling and hydrological stochastics, 1, Marginal distributional properties of hydrological processes and state scaling, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 50 (3), 381–404, doi:10.1623/hysj.50.3.381.65031, 2005.
3. D. Koutsoyiannis, An entropic-stochastic representation of rainfall intermittency: The origin of clustering and persistence, Water Resources Research, 42 (1), W01401, doi:10.1029/2005WR004175, 2006.
4. D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Montanari, H. F. Lins, and T.A. Cohn, Climate, hydrology and freshwater: towards an interactive incorporation of hydrological experience into climate research—DISCUSSION of “The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management”, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 54 (2), 394–405, doi:10.1623/hysj.54.2.394, 2009.
5. D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Langousis, Precipitation, Treatise on Water Science, edited by P. Wilderer and S. Uhlenbrook, 2, 27–78, doi:10.1016/B978-0-444-53199-5.00027-0, Academic Press, Oxford, 2011.
6. D. Koutsoyiannis, Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics and uncertainty, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 47 (3), 481–495, doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00543.x, 2011.
7. S.M. Papalexiou, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Montanari, Can a simple stochastic model generate rich patterns of rainfall events?, Journal of Hydrology, 411 (3-4), 279–289, 2011.
8. S.M. Papalexiou, D. Koutsoyiannis, and C. Makropoulos, How extreme is extreme? An assessment of daily rainfall distribution tails, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 851–862, doi:10.5194/hess-17-851-2013, 2013.
9. S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Battle of extreme value distributions: A global survey on extreme daily rainfall, Water Resources Research, 49 (1), 187–201, doi:10.1029/2012WR012557, 2013.
10. A. Efstratiadis, A. D. Koussis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, Flood design recipes vs. reality: can predictions for ungauged basins be trusted?, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 14, 1417–1428, doi:10.5194/nhess-14-1417-2014, 2014.
11. D. Koutsoyiannis, and S.M. Papalexiou, Extreme rainfall: Global perspective, Handbook of Applied Hydrology, Second Edition, edited by V.P. Singh, 74.1–74.16, McGraw-Hill, New York, 2017.
12. P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic synthesis approximating any process dependence and distribution, Stochastic Environmental Research & Risk Assessment, 32 (6), 1493–1515, doi:10.1007/s00477-018-1540-2, 2018.
13. T. Iliopoulou, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Montanari, Characterizing and modeling seasonality in extreme rainfall, Water Resources Research, 54 (9), 6242–6258, doi:10.1029/2018WR023360, 2018.
14. E. Volpi, A. Fiori, S. Grimaldi, F. Lombardo, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Save hydrological observations! Return period estimation without data decimation, Journal of Hydrology, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.02.017, 2019.
15. F. Lombardo, F. Napolitano, F. Russo, and D. Koutsoyiannis, On the exact distribution of correlated extremes in hydrology, Water Resources Research, 55 (12), 10405–10423, doi:10.1029/2019WR025547, 2019.
16. P. Dimitriadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, T. Iliopoulou, and P. Papanicolaou, A global-scale investigation of stochastic similarities in marginal distribution and dependence structure of key hydrological-cycle processes, Hydrology, 8 (2), 59, doi:10.3390/hydrology8020059, 2021.
17. D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastics of Hydroclimatic Extremes - A Cool Look at Risk, Εκδοση 3, ISBN: 978-618-85370-0-2, 391 pages, doi:10.57713/kallipos-1, Kallipos Open Academic Editions, Athens, 2023.

Άλλες εργασίες που αναφέρονται σ' αυτή την εργασία: Δείτε τις στο Google Scholar ή στο ResearchGate

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Κατηγορίες: Ακραία φαινόμενα, Μοντέλα βροχής