Πιθανοτική θεώρηση της μεθόδου Hershfield για την εκτίμηση της πιθανής μέγιστης κατακρήμνισης

D. Koutsoyiannis, A probabilistic view of Hershfield's method for estimating probable maximum precipitation, Water Resources Research, 35 (4), 1313–1322, doi:10.1029/1999WR900002, 1999.

[Πιθανοτική θεώρηση της μεθόδου Hershfield για την εκτίμηση της πιθανής μέγιστης κατακρήμνισης]

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[Αγγλικά]

Προτείνεται μια εναλλακτική διατύπωση της στατιστικής μεθόδου Hershfield για την εκτίμηση της πιθανής μέγιστης κατακρήμνισης (ΠΜΚ). Συγκεκριμένα, αποδεικνύεται ότι τα δεδομένα που έχουν δημοσιευτεί από τον Hershfield δεν επιβεβαιώνουν την υπόθεση για την ύπαρξη της ΠΜΚ ως φυσικού ανώτατου ορίου και γι' αυτό προτείνεται ως συνεπέστερη η καθαρώς πιθανοτική θεώρηση των δεδομένων. Επιπλέον, χρησιμοποιώντας το ίδιο σύνολο δεδομένων, αποδεικνύεται ότι η εκτίμηση της ΠΜΚ κατά Hershfield μπορεί να εξαχθεί εναλλακτικά χρησιμοποιώντας την κατανομή Γενική Ακραίων Τιμών (ΓΑΤ) για περίοδο επαναφοράς 60 000 ετών και για παράμετρο σχήματος που δίνεται από μια γραμμική συνάρτηση της μέσης τιμής του δείγματος των ετήσιων μέγιστων κατακρημνίσεων. Η διατύπωση αυτή υποκαθιστά πλήρως το κλασικό εμπειρικό νομογράφημα που χρησιμοποιείται για την εφαρμογή της μεθόδου. Η εφαρμογή της μεθόδου βελτιώνεται όταν είναι διαθέσιμα τοπικά δείγματα βροχοπτώσεων με μεγάλο μήκος, τα οποία μπορούν να οδηγήσουν σε ακριβή εκτίμηση της παραμέτρου σχήματος της κατανομής ΓΑΤ.

Το πλήρες κείμενο διατίθεται μόνο στο δίκτυο του ΕΜΠ λόγω νομικών περιορισμών

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Βλέπε επίσης: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900002

Εργασίες μας στις οποίες αναφέρεται αυτή η εργασία:

1. D. Koutsoyiannis, D. Kozonis, and A. Manetas, A mathematical framework for studying rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationships, Journal of Hydrology, 206 (1-2), 118–135, doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(98)00097-3, 1998.
2. D. Koutsoyiannis, and G. Baloutsos, Analysis of a long record of annual maximum rainfall in Athens, Greece, and design rainfall inferences, Natural Hazards, 22 (1), 29–48, doi:10.1023/A:1008001312219, 2000.

Εργασίες μας που αναφέρονται σ' αυτή την εργασία:

1. D. Koutsoyiannis, Statistics of extremes and estimation of extreme rainfall, 1, Theoretical investigation, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 49 (4), 575–590, doi:10.1623/hysj.49.4.575.54430, 2004.
2. D. Koutsoyiannis, Statistics of extremes and estimation of extreme rainfall, 2, Empirical investigation of long rainfall records, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 49 (4), 591–610, doi:10.1623/hysj.49.4.591.54424, 2004.
3. S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A probabilistic approach to the concept of probable maximum precipitation, Advances in Geosciences, 7, 51-54, doi:10.5194/adgeo-7-51-2006, 2006.
4. Δ. Κουτσογιάννης, Παλιότερες και σύγχρονες υδρολογικές θεωρήσεις στο σχεδιασμό και τη διαχείριση των ταμιευτήρων, των φραγμάτων και των υδροηλεκτρικών εγκαταστάσεων (Προσκεκλημένη ομιλία), 1ο Πανελλήνιο Συνέδριο Μεγάλων Φραγμάτων, Λάρισα, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.3213.5922, Ελληνική Επιτροπή Μεγάλων Φραγμάτων, Τεχνικό Επιμελητήριο Ελλάδας, 2008.
5. D. Koutsoyiannis, C. Makropoulos, A. Langousis, S. Baki, A. Efstratiadis, A. Christofides, G. Karavokiros, and N. Mamassis, Climate, hydrology, energy, water: recognizing uncertainty and seeking sustainability, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 13, 247–257, doi:10.5194/hess-13-247-2009, 2009.
6. D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Langousis, Precipitation, Treatise on Water Science, edited by P. Wilderer and S. Uhlenbrook, 2, 27–78, doi:10.1016/B978-0-444-53199-5.00027-0, Academic Press, Oxford, 2011.
7. S.M. Papalexiou, D. Koutsoyiannis, and C. Makropoulos, How extreme is extreme? An assessment of daily rainfall distribution tails, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 851–862, doi:10.5194/hess-17-851-2013, 2013.
8. D. Koutsoyiannis, and S.M. Papalexiou, Extreme rainfall: Global perspective, Handbook of Applied Hydrology, Second Edition, edited by V.P. Singh, 74.1–74.16, McGraw-Hill, New York, 2017.
9. A. Koskinas, A. Tegos, P. Tsira, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, P. Papanicolaou, D. Koutsoyiannis, and Τ. Williamson, Insights into the Oroville Dam 2017 spillway incident, Geosciences, 9 (37), doi:10.3390/geosciences9010037, 2019.
10. D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastics of Hydroclimatic Extremes - A Cool Look at Risk, Εκδοση 3, ISBN: 978-618-85370-0-2, 391 pages, doi:10.57713/kallipos-1, Kallipos Open Academic Editions, Athens, 2023.

Άλλες εργασίες που αναφέρονται σ' αυτή την εργασία: Δείτε τις στο Google Scholar ή στο ResearchGate

Άλλες εργασίες που αναφέρονται σ' αυτή την εργασία (αυτός ο κατάλογος μπορεί να μην είναι ενημερωμένος):

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Κατηγορίες: Βιβλιογραφία μαθήματος: Υδρομετεωρολογία, Ντετερμινισμός και στοχαστικότητα, Ακραία φαινόμενα, Μοντέλα βροχής