Simple disaggregation by accurate adjusting procedures

D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Manetas, Simple disaggregation by accurate adjusting procedures, Water Resources Research, 32 (7), 2105–2117, doi:10.1029/96WR00488, 1996.



A multivariate disaggregation method is developed for stochastic simulation of hydrologic series. The method is based on three simple ideas that have been proven effective. First, it starts using directly a typical PAR(1) model and keeps its formalism and parameter set, which is the most parsimonious among linear stochastic models. This model is run for the lower-level variables without any reference to the known higher-level variables. Second, it uses accurate adjusting procedures to allocate the error in the additive property, i.e., the departure of the sum of lower-level variables within a period from the corresponding higher-level variable. They are accurate in the sense that they preserve explicitly certain statistics or even the complete distribution of lower-level variables. Three such procedures have been developed and studied in this paper, both theoretically and empirically. Third, it uses repetitive sampling in order to improve the approximations of statistics that are not explicitly preserved by the adjusting procedures. The model, owing to the wide range of probability distributions it can handle (from bell-shaped to J-shaped) and to its multivariate framework, is useful for a plethora of hydrologic applications such as disaggregation of annual rainfall or runoff into monthly or weekly amounts, and disaggregation of event rainfall depths into partial amounts of hourly or even less duration. Such real world hydrologic applications have been explored in this study to test the model performance, which has proven very satisfactory.

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See also:

Our works referenced by this work:

1. D. Koutsoyiannis, A disaggregation model of point rainfall, PhD thesis, 310 pages, doi:10.12681/eadd/0910, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 1988.
2. D. Koutsoyiannis, and Th. Xanthopoulos, A dynamic model for short-scale rainfall disaggregation, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 35 (3), 303–322, doi:10.1080/02626669009492431, 1990.
3. D. Koutsoyiannis, A nonlinear disaggregation method with a reduced parameter set for simulation of hydrologic series, Water Resources Research, 28 (12), 3175–3191, doi:10.1029/92WR01299, 1992.
4. D. Koutsoyiannis, A stochastic disaggregation method for design storm and flood synthesis, Journal of Hydrology, 156, 193–225, doi:10.1016/0022-1694(94)90078-7, 1994.

Our works that reference this work:

1. D. Koutsoyiannis, Optimal decomposition of covariance matrices for multivariate stochastic models in hydrology, Water Resources Research, 35 (4), 1219–1229, doi:10.1029/1998WR900093, 1999.
2. D. Koutsoyiannis, A generalized mathematical framework for stochastic simulation and forecast of hydrologic time series, Water Resources Research, 36 (6), 1519–1533, 2000.
3. D. Koutsoyiannis, Coupling stochastic models of different time scales, Water Resources Research, 37 (2), 379–391, doi:10.1029/2000WR900200, 2001.
4. D. Koutsoyiannis, and C. Onof, Rainfall disaggregation using adjusting procedures on a Poisson cluster model, Journal of Hydrology, 246, 109–122, 2001.
5. D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Efstratiadis, and G. Karavokiros, A decision support tool for the management of multi-reservoir systems, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 38 (4), 945–958, doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.2002.tb05536.x, 2002.
6. D. Koutsoyiannis, C. Onof, and H. S. Wheater, Multivariate rainfall disaggregation at a fine timescale, Water Resources Research, 39 (7), 1173, doi:10.1029/2002WR001600, 2003.
7. D. Koutsoyiannis, G. Karavokiros, A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, A. Koukouvinos, and A. Christofides, A decision support system for the management of the water resource system of Athens, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 28 (14-15), 599–609, doi:10.1016/S1474-7065(03)00106-2, 2003.
8. D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Efstratiadis, Experience from the development of decision support systems for the management of large-scale hydrosystems of Greece, Proceedings of the Workshop "Water Resources Studies in Cyprus", edited by E. Sidiropoulos and I. Iakovidis, Nikosia, 159–180, Water Development Department of Cyprus, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, 2003.
9. A. Efstratiadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and D. Xenos, Minimising water cost in the water resource management of Athens, Urban Water Journal, 1 (1), 3–15, 2004.
10. A. Langousis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A stochastic methodology for generation of seasonal time series reproducing overyear scaling behaviour, Journal of Hydrology, 322, 138–154, 2006.
11. A. Efstratiadis, Y. Dialynas, S. Kozanis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A multivariate stochastic model for the generation of synthetic time series at multiple time scales reproducing long-term persistence, Environmental Modelling and Software, 62, 139–152, doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.08.017, 2014.
12. Y. Markonis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Scale-dependence of persistence in precipitation records, Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2894, 2015.
13. P. Kossieris, C. Makropoulos, C. Onof, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A rainfall disaggregation scheme for sub-hourly time scales: Coupling a Bartlett-Lewis based model with adjusting procedures, Journal of Hydrology, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.07.015, 2016.
14. F. Lombardo, E. Volpi, D. Koutsoyiannis, and F. Serinaldi , A theoretically consistent stochastic cascade for temporal disaggregation of intermittent rainfall, Water Resources Research, doi:10.1002/2017WR020529, 2017.

Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate

Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):

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Tagged under: Stochastic disaggregation, Stochastics