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A generalized mathematical framework for stochastic simulation and forecast of hydrologic time series

Koutsoyiannis, D., A generalized mathematical framework for stochastic simulation and forecast of hydrologic time series, Water Resources Research, 36 (6), 1519–1533, 2000.

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[English]

A generalized framework for single-variate and multivariate simulation and forecasting problems in stochastic hydrology is proposed. It is appropriate for short-term or long-term memory processes and preserves the Hurst coefficient even in multivariate processes with a different Hurst coefficient in each location. Simultaneously, it explicitly preserves the coefficients of skewness of the processes. The proposed framework incorporates short memory (autoregressive - moving average) and long memory (fractional Gaussian noise) models, considering them as special instances of a parametrically defined generalized autocovariance function, more comprehensive than those used in these classes of models. The generalized autocovariance function is then implemented in a generalized moving average generating scheme that yields a new time symmetric (backward-forward) representation, whose advantages are studied. Fast algorithms for computation of internal parameters of the generating scheme are developed, appropriate for problems including even thousands of such parameters. The proposed generating scheme is also adapted through a generalized methodology to perform in forecast mode, in addition to simulation mode. Finally, a specific form of the model for problems where the autocorrelation function can be defined only for a certain finite number of lags is also studied. Several illustrations are included to clarify the features and the performance of the components of the proposed framework.

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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2000WR900044

Our works referenced by this work:

1. Koutsoyiannis, D., and E. Foufoula-Georgiou, A scaling model of storm hyetograph, Water Resources Research, 29 (7), 2345–2361, 1993.
2. Koutsoyiannis, D., and A. Manetas, Simple disaggregation by accurate adjusting procedures, Water Resources Research, 32 (7), 2105–2117, 1996.
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4. Koutsoyiannis, D., An advanced method for preserving skewness in single-variate, multivariate and disaggregation models in stochastic hydrology, 24th General Assembly of the European Geophysical Society, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 1, The Hague, 346, European Geophysical Society, 1999.

Our works that reference this work:

1. Koutsoyiannis, D., Coupling stochastic models of different time scales, Water Resources Research, 37 (2), 379–392, 2001.
2. Koutsoyiannis, D., The Hurst phenomenon and fractional Gaussian noise made easy, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 47 (4), 573–595, 2002.
3. Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Efstratiadis, and G. Karavokiros, A decision support tool for the management of multi-reservoir systems, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 38 (4), 945–958, 2002.
4. Nalbantis, I., E. Rozos, G. M. T. Tentes, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Integrating groundwater models within a decision support system, Proceedings of the 5th International Conference of European Water Resources Association: "Water Resources Management in the Era of Transition", edited by G. Tsakiris, Athens, 279–286, European Water Resources Association, 2002.
5. Koutsoyiannis, D., Climate change, the Hurst phenomenon, and hydrological statistics, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 48 (1), 3–24, 2003.
6. Koutsoyiannis, D., and A. Economou, Evaluation of the parameterization-simulation-optimization approach for the control of reservoir systems, Water Resources Research, 39 (6), 1170, doi:10.1029/2003WR002148, 2003.
7. Koutsoyiannis, D., G. Karavokiros, A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, A. Koukouvinos, and A. Christofides, A decision support system for the management of the water resource system of Athens, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 28 (14-15), 599–609, 2003.
8. Koutsoyiannis, D., and A. Efstratiadis, Experience from the development of decision support systems for the management of large-scale hydrosystems of Greece, Proceedings of the Workshop "Water Resources Studies in Cyprus", edited by E. Sidiropoulos and I. Iakovidis, Nikosia, 159–180, Water Development Department of Cyprus, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, 2003.
9. Efstratiadis, A., D. Koutsoyiannis, and D. Xenos, Minimising water cost in the water resource management of Athens, Urban Water Journal, 1 (1), 3–15, 2004.
10. Koutsoyiannis, D., Uncertainty, entropy, scaling and hydrological stochastics, 2, Time dependence of hydrological processes and time scaling, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 50 (3), 405–426, 2005.
11. Christofides, A., A. Efstratiadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, G.-F. Sargentis, and K. Hadjibiros, Resolving conflicting objectives in the management of the Plastiras Lake: can we quantify beauty?, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 9 (5), 507–515, 2005.
12. Langousis, A., and D. Koutsoyiannis, A stochastic methodology for generation of seasonal time series reproducing overyear scaling behaviour, Journal of Hydrology, 322, 138–154, 2006.
13. Koutsoyiannis, D., Nonstationarity versus scaling in hydrology, Journal of Hydrology, 324, 239–254, 2006.
14. Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Efstratiadis, and K. Georgakakos, Uncertainty assessment of future hydroclimatic predictions: A comparison of probabilistic and scenario-based approaches, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 8 (3), 261–281, 2007.
15. Koutsoyiannis, D., H. Yao, and A. Georgakakos, Medium-range flow prediction for the Nile: a comparison of stochastic and deterministic methods, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53 (1), 142–164, 2008.

Other works that reference this work:

1. Clifford, N.J., Hydrology: the changing paradigm, Progress in Physical Geography, 26(2), 290-301, 2002.
2. Ochoa-Rivera, J.C., R. Garcia-Bartual and J. Andreu, Multivariate synthetic streamflow generation using a hybrid model based on artificial neural networks, Hydrology & Earth System Siences, 6 (4), 641-654, 2002.
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7. Muniandy, S.V., and R. Uning, Characterization of exchange rate regimes based on scaling and correlation properties of volatility for ASEAN-5 countries, Physica A - Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 371(2), 585-598, 2006.
8. Wong, H., W.-c. Ip, R. Zhang and J. Xia, Non-parametric time series models for hydrological forecasting, Journal of Hydrology, 332(3-4), 337-347, 2007.
9. Ochoa-Rivera, J.C., J. Andreu and R. Garcia-Bartual, Influence of inflows modeling on management simulation of water resources system, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 133(2), 106-116, 2007.
10. Mackey, R., Rhodes Fairbridge and the idea that the solar system regulates the Earth's climate, Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue 50, Proceedings ICS2007, 955-968, 2007.
11. #Chen, Y.Q., R, Sun and A. Zhou, An overview of fractional order signal processing (FOSP) techniques, Proc. ASME 2007 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences & Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, 1205-1222, 2007.
12. Hamed, K.H., Trend detection in hydrologic data: The Mann-Kendall trend test under the scaling hypothesis, Journal of Hydrology, 349(3-4), 350-363, 2008.
13. Yang, Z.P., W.X. Lu, Y.Q. Long and P. Li, Application and comparison of two prediction models for groundwater levels: A case study in Western Jilin Province, China, Journal of Arid Environments, 73 (4-5), 487-492, 2009.
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Tagged under: Course bibliography: Stochastic methods, Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics, Stochastics, Uncertainty