Assessing cyber-physical threats under water demand uncertainty

G. Moraitis, I. Tsoukalas, P. Kossieris, D. Nikolopoulos, G. Karavokiros, D. Kalogeras, and C. Makropoulos, Assessing cyber-physical threats under water demand uncertainty, Environmental Sciences Proceedings, 21 (1), 18, doi:10.3390/environsciproc2022021018, October 2022.



This study presents an approach for the assessment of cyber-physical threats to water distribution networks under the prism of the uncertainty which stems from the variability and stochastic nature of nodal water demands. The proposed framework investigates a single threat scenario under a spectrum of synthetic, yet realistic, system states which are driven by an ensemble of stochastically generated nodal demands. This Monte Carlo-type experiment enables the probabilistic inference about model outputs, and hence the derivation of probabilistic estimates over consequences. The approach is showcased for a cyber-physical attack scenario against the monitoring and control system of a benchmark network.

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Our works referenced by this work:

1. I. Tsoukalas, S.M. Papalexiou, A. Efstratiadis, and C. Makropoulos, A cautionary note on the reproduction of dependencies through linear stochastic models with non-Gaussian white noise, Water, 10 (6), 771, doi:10.3390/w10060771, 2018.
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3. P. Kossieris, and C. Makropoulos, Exploring the statistical and distributional properties of residential water demand at fine time scales, Water, 10 (10), 1481, doi:10.3390/w10101481, 2018.
4. I. Tsoukalas, A. Efstratiadis, and C. Makropoulos, Building a puzzle to solve a riddle: A multi-scale disaggregation approach for multivariate stochastic processes with any marginal distribution and correlation structure, Journal of Hydrology, 575, 354–380, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.05.017, 2019.
5. P. Kossieris, I. Tsoukalas, C. Makropoulos, and D. Savic, Simulating marginal and dependence behaviour of water demand processes at any fine time scale, Water, 11 (5), 885, doi:10.3390/w11050885, 2019.
6. C. Makropoulos, and D. Savic, Urban hydroinformatics: past, present and future, Water, 11 (10), 1959, doi:10.3390/w11101959, 2019.
7. P. Kossieris, Multi-scale stochastic analysis and modelling of residential water demand processes, PhD thesis, 350 pages, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, February 2020.
8. D. Nikolopoulos, G. Moraitis, D. Bouziotas, A. Lykou, G. Karavokiros, and C. Makropoulos, Cyber-physical stress-testing platform for water distribution networks, Journal of Environmental Engineering, 146 (7), 04020061, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)EE.1943-7870.0001722, 2020.
9. G. Moraitis, D. Nikolopoulos, D. Bouziotas, A. Lykou, G. Karavokiros, and C. Makropoulos, Quantifying failure for critical water Infrastructures under cyber-physical threats, Journal of Environmental Engineering, 146 (9), doi:10.1061/(ASCE)EE.1943-7870.0001765, 2020.
10. G. Moraitis, D. Nikolopoulos, I. Koutiva, I. Tsoukalas, G. Karavokiros, and C. Makropoulos, The PROCRUSTES testbed: tackling cyber-physical risk for water systems, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, EGU21-14903, doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14903, European Geosciences Union, 2021.
11. A. Efstratiadis, P. Dimas, G. Pouliasis, I. Tsoukalas, P. Kossieris, V. Bellos, G.-K. Sakki, C. Makropoulos, and S. Michas, Revisiting flood hazard assessment practices under a hybrid stochastic simulation framework, Water, 14 (3), 457, doi:10.3390/w14030457, 2022.

Our works that reference this work:

1. G. Moraitis, G.-K. Sakki, G. Karavokiros, D. Nikolopoulos, P. Kossieris, I. Tsoukalas, and C. Makropoulos, Exploring the cyber-physical threat landscape of water systems: A socio-technical modelling approach, Water, 15 (9), 1687, doi:10.3390/w15091687, 2023.