A. Efstratiadis, P. Dimas, G. Pouliasis, I. Tsoukalas, P. Kossieris, V. Bellos, G.-K. Sakki, C. Makropoulos, and S. Michas, Revisiting flood hazard assessment practices under a hybrid stochastic simulation framework, *Water*, 14 (3), 457, doi:10.3390/w14030457, 2022.

[doc_id=2170]

[English]

We propose a novel probabilistic approach to flood hazard assessment, aiming to address the major shortcomings of everyday deterministic engineering practices in a computationally efficient manner. In this context, the principal sources of uncertainty are defined across the overall modelling procedure, namely, the statistical uncertainty of inferring annual rainfall maxima through distribution models that are fitted to empirical data, and the inherently stochastic nature of the underlying hydrometeorological and hydrodynamic processes. Our work focuses on three key facets, i.e., the temporal profile of storm events, the dependence of flood generation mechanisms to antecedent soil moisture conditions, and the dependence of runoff propagation over the terrain and the stream network on the intensity of the flood event. These are addressed through the implementation of a series of cascade modules, based on publicly available and open-source software. Moreover, the hydrodynamic processes are simulated by a hybrid 1D/2D modelling approach, which offers a good compromise between computational efficiency and accuracy. The proposed framework enables the estimation of the uncertainty of all flood-related quantities, by means of empirically-derived quantiles for given return periods. Finally, a set of easily applicable flood hazard metrics are introduced for the quantification of flood hazard.

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https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/3/457

**Our works referenced by this work:**

1. | H. Tyralis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and S. Kozanis, An algorithm to construct Monte Carlo confidence intervals for an arbitrary function of probability distribution parameters, Computational Statistics, 28 (4), 1501–1527, doi:10.1007/s00180-012-0364-7, 2013. |

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6. | G. Papaioannou, A. Efstratiadis, L. Vasiliades, A. Loukas, S.M. Papalexiou, A. Koukouvinos, I. Tsoukalas, and P. Kossieris, An operational method for Floods Directive implementation in ungauged urban areas, Hydrology, 5 (2), 24, doi:10.3390/hydrology5020024, 2018. |

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11. | I. Tsoukalas, The tales that the distribution tails of non-Gaussian autocorrelated processes tell: Efficient methods for the estimation of the k-length block-maxima distribution, doi:10.1080/02626667.2021.2014056, 2021, (in press). |

12. | G. Papaioannou, L. Vasiliades, A. Loukas, A. Alamanos, A. Efstratiadis, A. Koukouvinos, I. Tsoukalas, and P. Kossieris, A flood inundation modelling approach for urban and rural areas in lake and large-scale river basins, Water, 13 (9), 1264, doi:10.3390/w13091264, 2021. |

13. | P. Kossieris, I. Tsoukalas, A. Efstratiadis, and C. Makropoulos, Generic framework for downscaling statistical quantities at fine time-scales and its perspectives towards cost-effective enrichment of water demand records, Water, 13 (23), 3429, doi:10.3390/w13233429, 2021. |

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**Our works that reference this work:**

1. | G. Moraitis, I. Tsoukalas, P. Kossieris, D. Nikolopoulos, G. Karavokiros, D. Kalogeras, and C. Makropoulos, Assessing cyber-physical threats under water demand uncertainty, Environmental Sciences Proceedings, 21 (1), 18, doi:10.3390/environsciproc2022021018, October 2022. |

**Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):**

1. | Tegos, A., A. Ziogas, V. Bellos, and A. Tzimas, Forensic hydrology: a complete reconstruction of an extreme flood event in data-scarce area, Hydrology, 9(5), 93, doi:10.3390/hydrology9050093, 2022. |

2. | Afzal, M. A., S. Ali, A. Nazeer, M. I. Khan, M. M. Waqas, R. A. Aslam, M. J. M. Cheema, M. Nadeem, N. Saddique, M. Muzammil, and A. N. Shah, Flood inundation modeling by integrating HEC–RAS and satellite imagery: A case study of the Indus river basin, Water, 14(19), 2984, doi:10.3390/w14192984, 2022. |

3. | Vangelis, H., I. Zotou, I. M. Kourtis, V. Bellos, and V. A. Tsihrintzis, Relationship of rainfall and flood return periods through hydrologic and hydraulic modeling, Water, 14(22), 3618, doi:10.3390/w14223618, 2022. |

**Tagged under:**
Floods,
Hydraulic models,
Hydrological models,
Rainfall models,
Most recent works,
Uncertainty