A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data

G. G. Anagnostopoulos, D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Christofides, A. Efstratiadis, and N. Mamassis, A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 55 (7), 1094–1110, doi:10.1080/02626667.2010.513518, 2010.



We compare the output of various climate models to temperature and precipitation observations at 55 points around the globe. We spatially aggregate model output and observations over the contiguous USA using data from 70 stations, and we perform comparison at several temporal scales, including a climatic (30-year) scale. Besides confirming the findings of a previous assessment study that model projections at point scale are poor, results show that the spatially integrated projections do not correspond to reality any better.

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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2010.513518

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Weblogs and forums that discussed this article during 2010:

  1. Very Important New Paper “A Comparison Of Local And Aggregated Climate Model Outputs With Observed Data” By Anagnostopoulos Et Al 2010 (Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr.)
  2. New peer reviewed paper shows just how bad the climate models really are (Watts Up With That?)
  3. Missing News: No skill in climate modelling (ABC News Watch)
  4. Missing News: Climate models disputed (ABC News Watch)
  5. New peer reviewed paper shows just how bad the climate models really are (repost 1) (Countdown to critical mass)
  6. New peer reviewed paper shows just how bad the climate models really are (repost2 ) (Climate Observer)
  7. New Major Peer-Reviewed Study: Climate Models' Predictions Found To Be Shitty (C3)
  8. New peer reviewed paper shows just how bad the climate models really are - A response to the Climate Change Misinformation at wattsupwiththat.com (Wott's Up With That?)
  9. Climate model abuse (Niche Modeling)
  10. Very Important New Paper on models versus reality (Greenie Watch)
  11. New paper shows that there is no means of reliably predicting climate variables (Greenie Watch 2)
  12. A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data (Fire And Ice)
  13. Peer Reviewed Study States The Obvious (US Message Board)
  14. Climate models don’t work, in hindsight (Herald Sun Andrew Bolt Blog)
  15. Climate models don’t work, in hindsight (repost) (The Daily Telegraph)
  16. No abuse hides the fact:  warmist models cannot even predict our past (Herald Sun Andrew Bolt Blog 2)
  17. No abuse hides the fact: the warmist models cannot even predict our past (PA Pundits – International)
  18. Aussie rains – IPCC models are bunkum, Energy tsunami, CCNet updates, Exit EU petition (clothcap)
  19. Aussie rains – IPCC models are bunkum, Energy tsunami, CCNet updates, Exit EU petition (repost) (My Telegraph)
  20. Science not politics (ecomyths)
  21. More evidence that Global Climate computer models are worthless (Tucano's Perch)
  22. Model skill? (Retread Resources Blog)
  23. Estudo sobre modelos climáticos (MeteoPT.com - Fórum de Meteorologia)
  24. Strategie di verifica delle prestazioni dei GCM, i risultati degli idrologi dell’università di Atene (Climate Monitor)
  25. Strategie di verifica delle prestazioni dei GCM, i risultati degli idrologi dell’università di Atene (repost) (Blog All Over The World)
  26. Klima - spådommer og målinger (ABC News)
  27. "Scam for the Ages" Makes Madoff Look Like Small Change (Al Fin)
  28. Teoria do AGA: um passado duvidoso, um presente mal contado e um futuro pior ainda. (Sou Engenheiro)

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Our works referenced by this work:

1. D. Koutsoyiannis, Climate change, the Hurst phenomenon, and hydrological statistics, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 48 (1), 3–24, doi:10.1623/hysj., 2003.
2. D. Koutsoyiannis, A toy model of climatic variability with scaling behaviour, Journal of Hydrology, 322, 25–48, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.02.030, 2006.
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5. D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, and A. Christofides, On the credibility of climate predictions, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53 (4), 671–684, doi:10.1623/hysj.53.4.671, 2008.
6. D. Koutsoyiannis, C. Makropoulos, A. Langousis, S. Baki, A. Efstratiadis, A. Christofides, G. Karavokiros, and N. Mamassis, Climate, hydrology, energy, water: recognizing uncertainty and seeking sustainability, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 13, 247–257, doi:10.5194/hess-13-247-2009, 2009.
7. D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Montanari, H. F. Lins, and T.A. Cohn, Climate, hydrology and freshwater: towards an interactive incorporation of hydrological experience into climate research—DISCUSSION of “The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management”, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 54 (2), 394–405, doi:10.1623/hysj.54.2.394, 2009.
8. D. Koutsoyiannis, A random walk on water, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14, 585–601, doi:10.5194/hess-14-585-2010, 2010.

Our works that reference this work:

1. D. Koutsoyiannis, Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics and uncertainty, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 47 (3), 481–495, doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00543.x, 2011.
2. D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Christofides, A. Efstratiadis, G. G. Anagnostopoulos, and N. Mamassis, Scientific dialogue on climate: is it giving black eyes or opening closed eyes? Reply to “A black eye for the Hydrological Sciences Journal” by D. Huard, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56 (7), 1334–1339, doi:10.1080/02626667.2011.610759, 2011.
3. D. Koutsoyiannis, Reconciling hydrology with engineering, Hydrology Research, 45 (1), 2–22, doi:10.2166/nh.2013.092, 2014.
4. S. Ceola, A. Montanari, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Toward a theoretical framework for integrated modeling of hydrological change, WIREs Water, 1 (5), 427–438, doi:10.1002/wat2.1038, 2014.
5. Y. Markonis, S. C. Batelis, Y. Dimakos, E. C. Moschou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall over Greece, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, doi:10.1007/s00704-016-1878-7, 2016.
6. D. Koutsoyiannis, and S.M. Papalexiou, Extreme rainfall: Global perspective, Handbook of Applied Hydrology, Second Edition, edited by V.P. Singh, 74.1–74.16, McGraw-Hill, New York, 2017.
7. H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, On the prediction of persistent processes using the output of deterministic models, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 62 (13), 2083–2102, doi:10.1080/02626667.2017.1361535, 2017.
8. D. Koutsoyiannis, Revisiting the global hydrological cycle: is it intensifying?, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 24, 3899–3932, doi:10.5194/hess-24-3899-2020, 2020.
9. D. Koutsoyiannis, and Z. W. Kundzewicz, Atmospheric temperature and CO₂: Hen-or-egg causality?, Sci, 2 (4), 83, doi:10.3390/sci2040083, 2020.
10. D. Koutsoyiannis, Rethinking climate, climate change, and their relationship with water, Water, 13 (6), 849, doi:10.3390/w13060849, 2021.
11. D. Koutsoyiannis, An open letter to the Editor of Frontiers, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.34248.39689/1, December 2021.
12. D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Montanari, Climate extrapolations in hydrology: The expanded Bluecat methodology, Hydrology, 9, 86, doi:10.3390/hydrology9050086, 2022.
13. D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastics of Hydroclimatic Extremes - A Cool Look at Risk, Edition 3, ISBN: 978-618-85370-0-2, 391 pages, doi:10.57713/kallipos-1, Kallipos Open Academic Editions, Athens, 2023.

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75. Connolly, R., M. Connolly, W. Soon, D. R. Legates, R. G. Cionco, and V. M. Velasco Herrera, Northern hemisphere snow-cover trends (1967–2018): A comparison between climate models and observations, Geosciences, 9(3), 135, doi:10.3390/geosciences9030135, 2019.
76. Kron, W., J. Eichner, and Z. W. Kundzewicz, Reduction of flood risk in Europe – Reflections from a reinsurance perspective, Journal of Hydrology, 576, 197-209, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.06.050, 2019.
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83. Hosseini-Moghari, S.-M., and Q. Tang, Validation of GPM IMERG-V05 and V06 precipitation products over Iran, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 21(5), 1011-1037, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-19-0269.1, 2020.
84. Stefanidis, S., S. Dafis, and D. Stathis, Evaluation of regional climate models (RCMs) performance in simulating seasonal precipitation over mountainous Central Pindus (Greece), Water, 12(10), 2750, doi:10.3390/w12102750, 2020.
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86. Turner, S. W. D., and P. J. Jeffrey, A simple drought risk analysis procedure to supplement water resources management planning in England and Wales, Water and Environment Journal, 35(1), 417-424, doi:10.1111/wej.12639, 2021.
87. Sun, B., S. Chen, Q. Liu, Y. Lu, C. Zhang, and H. Fang, Review of sewage flow measuring instruments, Ain Shams Engineering Journal, 12(2), 2089-2098, doi:10.1016/j.asej.2020.08.031, 2021.
88. Baran-Zgłobicka, B., D. Godziszewska, and W. Zgłobicki, The flash floods risk in the local spatial planning (case study: Lublin Upland, E Poland), Resources, 10(2), 14, doi:10.3390/resources10020014, 2021.
89. Neupane, S., S. Shrestha, U. Ghimire, S. Mohanasundaram, and S. Ninsawat, Evaluation of the CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) for simulating climate extremes in the Asian cities, Science of The Total Environment, 797, 149137, doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149137, 2021.
90. Manous, J., and E. Z. Stakhiv, Climate risk-informed decision analysis (CRIDA): ‘top-down’ vs ‘bottom-up’ decision making for planning water resources infrastructure, Water Policy, 23(S1), 54-76, doi:10.2166/wp.2021.243, 2021.
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Tagged under: Course bibliography: Hydrometeorology, Climate stochastics, Works discussed in weblogs, Students' works