A new stochastic hydrological framework inspired by the Athens water resource system

Athens, the capital of Greece, lies in a dry region and has suffered from frequent water shortages during its long history. During the recent development of a decision support tool for the management of its modern, huge water supply system, several problems were faced. Among them was hydrologic modelling, which was interesting due to peculiar hydrologic behaviours such as long lasting droughts and multi-year fluctuations of water resources. The natural behaviours encountered could not be explained by the classical statistical hydrological approach, according to which they were extraordinarily unexpected. Therefore, a new framework has been developed, which includes diagnosis of natural behaviours, explanation, description, and synthesis into an operational modelling tool.