Αξιολόγηση της μεθόδου παραμετροποίησης-προσομοίωσης-βελτιστοποίησης για τον έλεγχο συστημάτων ταμιευτήρων

D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Economou, Evaluation of the parameterization-simulation-optimization approach for the control of reservoir systems, Water Resources Research, 39 (6), 1170, doi:10.1029/2003WR002148, 2003.

[Αξιολόγηση της μεθόδου παραμετροποίησης-προσομοίωσης-βελτιστοποίησης για τον έλεγχο συστημάτων ταμιευτήρων]

[doc_id=562]

[Αγγλικά]

Οι περισσότερες από τις διαδεδομένες μεθόδους που χρησιμοποιούνται στο βέλτιστο έλεγχο συστημάτων ταμιευτήρων απαιτούν ένα μεγάλο αριθμό μεταβλητών ελέγχου, οι οποίες κατά κανόνα είναι οι ακολουθίες των απολήψεων από όλους τους ταμιευτήρες για όλα τα χρονικά βήματα της περιόδου ελέγχου. Σε αντίθεση, η λιγότερο διαδεδομένη μέθοδος με το όνομα παραμετροποίηση-προσομοίωση-βελτιστοποίηση (ΠΠΒ) είναι μια μέθοδος χαμηλής διαστατικότητας. Χρησιμοποιεί ένα πολύ μικρό αριθμό μεταβλητών ελέγχου, οι οποίες είναι παράμετροι ενός απλού κανόνα που ισχύει σε όλη τη διάρκεια της περιόδου ελέγχου και προσδιορίζει τις απολήψεις από τους επιμέρους ταμιευτήρες σε κάθε χρονικό βήμα. Η παραμετροποίηση του κανόνα ακολουθείται από την προσομοίωση του συστήματος ταμιευτήρων, η οποία επιτρέπει τον υπολογισμό ενός μέτρου επίδοσης του συστήματος για δεδομένες τιμές παραμέτρων. Η προσομοίωση συνδυάζεται με μη γραμμική βελτιστοποίηση, η οποία επιτρέπει των προσδιορισμό των βέλτιστων τιμών των παραμέτρων. Για να αξιολογηθεί η μέθοδος ΠΠΒ και ιδίως για να διερευνηθεί αν η δραστική μείωση του αριθμού των μεταβλητών ελέγχου μπορεί τυχόν να οδηγήσει σε κατώτερες λύσεις, η μέθοδος συγκρίνεται με δύο εναλλακτικές μεθόδους. Πρόκειται συγκεκριμένα για τη μέθοδο της 'τέλειας προβλεπτικότητας' και την απλουστευμένη μέθοδο του 'ισοδύναμου ταμιευτήρα', η οποία συγχωνεύει το σύστημα ταμιευτήρων σε ένα υποθετικό ταμιευτήρα. Οι εναλλακτικές μέθοδοι παρέχουν χαρακτηριστικά μέτρα επίδοσης αναφοράς (benchmarks) τα οποία χρησιμοποιούνται για σύγκριση. Η σύγκριση γίνεται τόσο σε θεωρητικό επίπεδο, όσο και με τη διερεύνηση των αποτελεσμάτων της μεθόδου ΠΠΒ σε σχέση με αυτά των μεθόδων αναφοράς σε μια μεγάλη ποικιλία δοκιμαστικών προβλημάτων. Κατασκευάζονται και επιλύονται 41 τέτοια προβλήματα για ένα υποθετικό σύστημα δύο ταμιευτήρων. Αυτά αναφέρονται σε ποικιλία στόχων (μεγιστοποίηση της αξιόπιστης απόδοσης, ελαχιστοποίηση του κόστους, μεγιστοποίηση της παραγωγής ενέργειας), χρήσεων νερού (άρδευση, ύδρευση, υδροηλεκτρική ενέργεια), χαρακτηριστικών ταμιευτήρων και υδρολογικών σεναρίων. Η διερεύνηση δείχνει ότι η μέθοδος ΠΠΒ δίνει λύσεις οι οποίες δεν είναι κατώτερες των αντίστοιχων των μεθόδων αναφοράς, ενώ ταυτόχρονα έχει πολλά θεωρητικά, υπολογιστικά και πρακτικά πλεονεκτήματα.

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Βλέπε επίσης: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2003WR002148

Εργασίες μας στις οποίες αναφέρεται αυτή η εργασία:

1. D. Koutsoyiannis, A nonlinear disaggregation method with a reduced parameter set for simulation of hydrologic series, Water Resources Research, 28 (12), 3175–3191, doi:10.1029/92WR01299, 1992.
2. I. Nalbantis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A parametric rule for planning and management of multiple reservoir systems, Water Resources Research, 33 (9), 2165–2177, doi:10.1029/97WR01034, 1997.
3. D. Koutsoyiannis, A generalized mathematical framework for stochastic simulation and forecast of hydrologic time series, Water Resources Research, 36 (6), 1519–1533, doi:10.1029/2000WR900044, 2000.
4. D. Koutsoyiannis, Coupling stochastic models of different time scales, Water Resources Research, 37 (2), 379–391, doi:10.1029/2000WR900200, 2001.
5. D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Efstratiadis, and G. Karavokiros, A decision support tool for the management of multi-reservoir systems, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 38 (4), 945–958, doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.2002.tb05536.x, 2002.

Εργασίες μας που αναφέρονται σ' αυτή την εργασία:

1. Δ. Κουτσογιάννης, και Α. Ευστρατιάδης, Εμπειρία από την ανάπτυξη συστημάτων υποστήριξης αποφάσεων για τη διαχείριση μεγάλης κλίμακας υδροσυστημάτων της Ελλάδας, Πρακτικά της Ημερίδας " Μελέτες και Έρευνες Υδατικών Πόρων στον Κυπριακό Χώρο", επιμέλεια Ε. Σιδηρόπουλος και Ι. Ιακωβίδης, Λευκωσία, 159–180, Τμήμα Αναπτύξεως Υδάτων Κύπρου, Αριστοτέλειο Πανεπιστήμιο Θεσσαλονίκης, Θεσσαλονίκη, 2003.
2. Δ. Κουτσογιάννης, Παλιότερες και σύγχρονες υδρολογικές θεωρήσεις στο σχεδιασμό και τη διαχείριση των ταμιευτήρων, των φραγμάτων και των υδροηλεκτρικών εγκαταστάσεων (Προσκεκλημένη ομιλία), 1ο Πανελλήνιο Συνέδριο Μεγάλων Φραγμάτων, Λάρισα, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.3213.5922, Ελληνική Επιτροπή Μεγάλων Φραγμάτων, Τεχνικό Επιμελητήριο Ελλάδας, 2008.
3. D. Koutsoyiannis, Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics and uncertainty, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 47 (3), 481–495, doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00543.x, 2011.
4. Α. Ευστρατιάδης, Προσομοίωση και βελτιστοποίηση διαχείρισης υδροδοτικού συστήματος Αθήνας, 28 pages, Τομέας Υδατικών Πόρων και Περιβάλλοντος – Εθνικό Μετσόβιο Πολυτεχνείο, Αθήνα, Ιανουάριος 2012.
5. Α. Ευστρατιάδης, Δ. Μπουζιώτας, και Δ. Κουτσογιάννης, Σύστημα υποστήριξης αποφάσεων για τη διαχείριση υδροηλεκτρικών ταμιευτήρων – Εφαρμογή στο υδροσύστημα Αχελώου-Θεσσαλίας, Πρακτικά 2ου Πανελλήνιου Συνεδρίου Φραγμάτων και Ταμιευτήρων, Αθήνα, Αίγλη Ζαππείου, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.1952.0244, Ελληνική Επιτροπή Μεγάλων Φραγμάτων, 2013.
6. I. Tsoukalas, and C. Makropoulos, Multiobjective optimisation on a budget: Exploring surrogate modelling for robust multi-reservoir rules generation under hydrological uncertainty, Environmental Modelling and Software, 69, 396–413, doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.09.023, 2015.
7. I. Tsoukalas, and C. Makropoulos, A surrogate based optimization approach for the development of uncertainty-aware reservoir operational rules: the case of Nestos hydrosystem, Water Resources Management, 29 (13), 4719–4734, doi:10.1007/s11269-015-1086-8, 2015.
8. I. Tsoukalas, P. Dimas, and C. Makropoulos, Hydrosystem optimization on a budget: Investigating the potential of surrogate based optimization techniques, 14th International Conference on Environmental Science and Technology (CEST2015), Global Network on Environmental Science and Technology, University of the Aegean, 2015.
9. I. Tsoukalas, P. Kossieris, A. Efstratiadis, and C. Makropoulos, Surrogate-enhanced evolutionary annealing simplex algorithm for effective and efficient optimization of water resources problems on a budget, Environmental Modelling and Software, 77, 122–142, doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.12.008, 2016.
10. I. Tsoukalas, C. Makropoulos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Simulation of stochastic processes exhibiting any-range dependence and arbitrary marginal distributions, Water Resources Research, 54 (11), 9484–9513, doi:10.1029/2017WR022462, 2018.
11. I. Tsoukalas, A. Efstratiadis, and C. Makropoulos, Building a puzzle to solve a riddle: A multi-scale disaggregation approach for multivariate stochastic processes with any marginal distribution and correlation structure, Journal of Hydrology, 575, 354–380, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.05.017, 2019.
12. G.-F. Sargentis, R. Ioannidis, G. Karakatsanis, S. Sigourou, N. D. Lagaros, and D. Koutsoyiannis, The development of the Athens water supply system and inferences for optimizing the scale of water infrastructures, Sustainability, 11 (9), 2657, doi:10.3390/su11092657, 2019.

Άλλες εργασίες που αναφέρονται σ' αυτή την εργασία: Δείτε τις στο Google Scholar ή στο ResearchGate

Άλλες εργασίες που αναφέρονται σ' αυτή την εργασία (αυτός ο κατάλογος μπορεί να μην είναι ενημερωμένος):

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12. Ilich, N., Shortcomings of linear programming in optimizing river basin allocation, Water Resources Research, 44, W02426, doi:10.1029/2007WR006192, 2008.
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15. Jothiprakash, V., and G. Shanthi, Comparison of Policies Derived from Stochastic Dynamic Programming and Genetic Algorithm Models, Water Resources Management, 23(8), 1563-1580, 2009.
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17. Sankarasubramanian, A., U. Lall, F. A. Souza Filho, and A. Sharma, Improved water allocation utilizing probabilistic climate forecasts: Short-term water contracts in a risk management framework, Water Resour. Res., 45, W11409, doi:10.1029/2009WR007821, 2009.
18. Rani, D., and M. M. Moreira, Simulation–optimization modeling: A survey and potential application in reservoir systems operation, Water Resources Management, 24 (6), 1107-1138, 2010.
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20. Liu, X., S. Guo, P. Liu, L. Chen and X. Li, Deriving Optimal Refill Rules for Multi-Purpose Reservoir Operation, Water Resources Management, 25 (2), 431-448, 2011.
21. Liu, P., S. Guo, X. Xu and J. Chen, Derivation of aggregation-based joint operating rule curves for cascade hydropower reservoirs, Water Resources Management, 25 (13), 3177-3200, 2011.
22. Liu, P., X. Cai, and S. Guo, Deriving multiple near-optimal solutions to deterministic reservoir operation problems, Water Resour. Res., 47, W08506, doi: 10.1029/2011WR010998, 2011.
23. Ostadrahimi, L., M. A. Mariño and A. Afshar, Multi-reservoir operation rules: Multi-swarm PSO-based optimization approach, Water Resources Management, 26 (2), 407-427, 2012.
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25. #Schumann, A., Gumbel Distribution, ARMA, Copulas – The importance of stochastic tools for water management, 3rd STAHY International Workshop on Statistical Methods for Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Tunis, Tunisia, 2012.
26. Joshi, M. L. P., and K. R. Reddy, System approach to the optimal operation of Srisailam reservoir, International Journal of Civil Engineering Applications Research, 03 (03), 129-136, 2012.
27. Guo, X., T. Hu, X. Zeng and X. Li, Extension of parametric rule with the Hedging Rule for managing multi‐reservoir system during droughts, J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 139 (2), 139-148, 2013.
28. Guo, X., T. Hu, C. Wu, T. Zhang and Y. Lv, Multi-objective optimization of the proposed multi-reservoir operating policy using improved NSPSO, Water Resources Management, 2137-2153, 2013.
29. Portoghese, I., E. Bruno, P. Dumas, N. Guyennon, S. Hallegatte, J.-C. Hourcade, H. Nassopoulos, G. Pisacane, M. V. Struglia and M. Vurro, Impacts of climate change on freshwater bodies: Quantitative aspects, Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean, Advances in Global Change Research (eds. A. Navarra and L. Tubiana), 50, 241-306, 10.1007/978-94-007-5781-3_9, 2013.
30. Lerma, N., J. Paredes-Arquiola, J. Andreu, and A. Solera, Development of operating rules for a complex multi-reservoir system by coupling genetic algorithms and network optimization, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 797-812, 2013.
31. Zeng, X., T.-S. Hu, X.-N. Guo and X.-J. Li, Triggering mechanism for inter-basin water transfer-supply in multi-reservoir system, Shuili Xuebao/Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 44 (3), 253-261, 2013.
32. Giuliani, M., and A. Castelletti, Assessing the value of cooperation and information exchange in large water resources systems by agent-based optimization, Water Resources Research, 10.1002/wrcr.20287, 2013.
33. Castelletti, A., F. Pianosi and M. Restelli, A multiobjective reinforcement learning approach to water resources systems operation: Pareto frontier approximation in a single run, Water Resources Research, 10.1002/wrcr.20295, 2013.
34. Wang, D., J. Y. Deng, Y. T. Li and J. J. Fang, Study on the impounding process optimization of cascade reservoirs in Upper Changjiang River, Applied Mechanics and Materials, 353, 2520-2526, 2013.
35. Xu, W., Y. Peng and B. Wang, Evaluation of optimization operation models for cascaded hydropower reservoirs to utilize medium range forecasting inflow, Science China Technological Sciences, 10.1007/s11431-013-5346-7, 2013.
36. Liu, P., J. Zhao, L. Li and Y. Shen, Equivalence of reservoir optimal operation, Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources, 33 (2), pp. 5-8+82, 2013.
37. Börner, J., S. I. Higgins, S. Scheiter and J. Kantelhardt, Approximating optimal numerical solutions to Bio-economic systems: How useful is Simulation-optimization?, Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, 52 (3), 179-198, 2013.
38. Liu, P., W. Zhang and T Li, Derivations of risk-based reservoir operation rule curves, Shuili Fadian Xuebao/Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 32 (4), 252-259, 2013.
39. Zeng, Y., X. Wu, C. Cheng and Y. Wang, Chance constrained optimal hedging rules for cascaded hydropower reservoirs, J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000427, 2014.
40. Castelletti, A., H. Yajima, M. Giuliani, R. Soncini-Sessa and E. Weber, Planning the optimal operation of a multi-outlet water reservoir with water quality and quantity targets, J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 140 (4), 496-510, 2014.
41. Asadzadeh, M., S. Razavi, B. A. Tolson, and D. Fay, Pre-emption strategies for efficient multi-objective optimization: Application to the development of Lake Superior regulation plan, Environmental Modelling and Software, 54, 128-141, 2014.
42. Latorre, J., S. Cerisola, A. Ramos, A. Perea, and R. Bellido, Coordinated hydropower plant simulation for multireservoir systems, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 140(2), 216–227, 2014.
43. Arena, C., M. Cannarozzo and M. R. Mazzola, Screening investments to reduce the risk of hydrologic failures in the headwork system supplying Apulia (Italy) – Role of economic evaluation and operation hydrology, Water Resources Management, 10.1007/s11269-014-0539-9, 2014.
44. Zeng, X., T. Hu, X. Guo and X. Li, Water transfer triggering mechanism for multi-reservoir operation in inter-basin water transfer-supply project, Water Resources Management, 10.1007/s11269-014-0541-2, 2014.
45. Li, L., P. Liu, D. E. Rheinheimer, C. Deng and Y. Zhou, Identifying explicit formulation of operating rules for multi-reservoir systems using genetic programming, Water Resources Management, 10.1007/s11269-014-0563-9, 2014.
46. Giuliani, M., S. Galelli, R. Soncini-Sessa, A dimensionality reduction approach for many-objective Markov Decision Processes: Application to a water reservoir operation problem, Environmental Modelling & Software, 10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.02.011, 2014.
47. Giuliani, M., J. D. Herman, A. Castelletti and P. Reed, Many-objective reservoir policy identification and refinement to reduce policy inertia and myopia in water management, Water Resources Research, 10.1002/2013WR014700, 2014.
48. Liu, P., L. Li, G. Chen and D. E. Rheinheimer, Parameter uncertainty analysis of reservoir operating rules based on implicit stochastic optimization, Journal of Hydrology, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.04.012, 2014.
49. #Biglarbeigi, P., M. Giuliani and A. Castelletti, Many-objective direct policy search in the Dez and Karoun multireservoir system, Iran, ASCE World Water and Environmental Resources Congress, Portland, OR., USA, 2014.
50. #Giuliani, M., E. Mason, A. Castelletti, F. Pianosi and R. Soncini-Sessa, Universal approximators for direct policy search in multi-purpose water reservoir management: A comparative analysis, 19th World Congress, The International Federation of Automatic Control, Cape Town, South Africa, 2014.
51. Stagge, J. H., and G. E. Moglen, Evolutionary algorithm optimization of a multireservoir system with long lag times, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19 (3), 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000972, 2014.
52. Wang, J., T. Hu, X. Zeng and H. Fang, Simulation and optimization model for hedging rule based on target storage, Huazhong Keji Daxue Xuebao (Ziran Kexue Ban)/Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology (Natural Science Edition), 42 (9), 107-111, 2014.
53. Wang, Y., S. Guo, G. Yang, X. Hong and T. Hu, Optimal early refill rules for Danjiangkou Reservoir, Water Science and Engineering, 7(4), 403-419, 2014.
54. #Sharma P.J., P.L. Patel and V. Jothiprakash, Performance evaluation of a multi-purpose reservoir using simulation models for different scenarios, ISH - Hydro 2014 International, 2014.
55. Pan, L., M. Housh, P. Liu, X. Cai and X. Chen, Robust stochastic optimization for reservoir operation, Water Resources Research, 51 (1), 409-429, 2015.
56. Ho, V.H., I. Kougias, and J.H. Kim, Reservoir operation using hybrid optimization algorithms, Global Nest Journal, 17 (1), 103-117, 2015.
57. Zeng, Y., X. Wu, C. Cheng and Y. Wang, Chance-constrained optimal hedging rules for cascaded hydropower reservoirs, () Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 140 (7), art. no. 04014010, 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000427, 2014.
58. Afshar, A., M.J. Emami Skardi and F. Masoumi, Optimizing water supply and hydropower reservoir operation rule curves: An imperialist competitive algorithm approach, Engineering Optimization, 47 (9), 1208-1225, 2014.
59. Liu, P., L. Li, S. Guo, L. Xiong, W. Zhang, J. Zhang and C.-Y. Xu, Optimal design of seasonal flood limited water levels and its application for the Three Gorges Reservoir, Journal of Hydrology, 527, 1045-1053, 2015.
60. Zhang, J., P. Liu, H. Wang, X. Lei and Y. Zhou, A Bayesian model averaging method for the derivation of reservoir operating rules, Journal of Hydrology, 528, 276-285, 2015.
61. Dariane A.B., and A.M. Moradi, A comparative analysis of evolving artificial neural network and reinforcement learning in stochastic optimization of multireservoir systems, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 10.1080/02626667.2014.986485, 2015.
62. Giuliani, M., A. Castelletti, F. Pianosi, E. Mason and P. Reed, curses, tradeoffs, and scalable management: advancing evolutionary multiobjective direct policy search to improve water reservoir operations, J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000570, 04015050, 2015.
63. Chu, J., C. Zhang, G. Fu, Y. Li and H. Zhou, Improving multi-objective reservoir operation optimization with sensitivity-informed dimension reduction, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19 (8), 3557-3570, 2015.
64. Ward, V.L., R. Singh, P.M. Reed and K. Keller, Confronting tipping points: Can multi-objective evolutionary algorithms discover pollution control tradeoffs given environmental thresholds?, Environmental Modelling and Software, 73, 27-43, 2015.
65. Salazar, J. Z., P. M. Reed, J. D. Herman, M. Giuliani, and A. Castelletti, A diagnostic assessment of evolutionary algorithms for multi-objective surface water reservoir control, Advances in Water Resources, 92, 172-185, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2016.04.006, 2016.
66. Müller, R., and N. Schütze, Multi-objective optimization of multi-purpose multi-reservoir systems under high reliability constraints, Environmental Earth Sciences, 75:1278, doi:10.1007/s12665-016-6076-5, 2016.
67. Lei, X., Q. Tan, X. Wang, H. Wang, X. Wen, C. Wang, and Z.-W. Zhang, Stochastic optimal operation of reservoirs based on copula functions, Journal of Hydrology, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.12.038, 2017.
68. Stamou, A. T., and P. Rutschmann, Pareto optimization of water resources using the nexus approach, Water Resources Management, doi:10.1007/s11269-018-2127-x, 2018.

Κατηγορίες: Υδροσυστήματα, Βελτιστοποίηση, Εργασίες φοιτητών σε συνέδρια