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On the credibility of climate predictions

Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, and A. Christofides, On the credibility of climate predictions, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53 (4), 671–684, 2008.

[doc_id=864]

[English]

Geographically distributed predictions of future climate, obtained through climate models, are widely used in hydrology and many other disciplines, typically without assessing their reliability. Here we compare the output of various models to temperature and precipitation observations from eight stations with long (over 100 years) records from around the globe. The results show that models perform poorly, even at a climatic (30-year) scale. Thus local model projections cannot be credible, whereas a common argument that models can perform better at larger spatial scales is unsupported.

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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1623/hysj.53.4.671

Related works:

  • [doc_id=850] Assessment of the reliability of climate predictions based on comparisons with historical time series (predecessor presentation)
  • [doc_id=900] Credibility of climate predictions revisited (follow up study)

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The paper has been widely discussed in weblogs and forums.

Weblogs and forums that discussed this article during 2008:

  1. Koutsoyiannis et al 2008: On the credibility of climate predictions (Climate Audit by Steve McIntyre) Reaction by first author * * * Additional reactions: 2 * 3 * 4 * 5 * 6 * more
  2. On the credibility of climate predictions by Koutsoyiannis et al. 2008 (Climate Science by Roger Pielke Sr. 1)
  3. Comments on a New Report on Climate Change in Colorado… (Climate Science by Roger Pielke Sr. 2)
  4. New Paper On Dynamic Downscaling Of Climate Models By Rockel Et. Al. Published (Climate Science by Roger Pielke Sr. 3)
  5. Hypothesis testing and long range memory (Real Climate by Gavin A. Schmidt) Reaction by 1st author; * * * Additional reaction
  6. Koutsoyiannis vs RealClimate.ORG (The Reference Frame by Luboš Motl) Reaction by 1rst author
  7. Modellen en vroegere werkelijkheid: een test (Klimaat by Marcel Severijnen 1)
  8. Nog eens: Modellen en vroegere werkelijkheid (Klimaat by Marcel Severijnen 2)
  9. Far from model predictions. As for the CSIRO’s… (Andrew Bolt Blog 1)
  10. Dud studies behind Rudd’s freakish claims (Andrew Bolt Blog 2)
  11. Rudd’s dud study (Andrew Bolt Blog 3)
  12. November snows all over the CSIRO (Andrew Bolt Blog 4)
  13. New paper demonstrates lack of credibility for climate model predictions (Jennifer Marohasy Blog 1)
  14. Ten of the Best Climate Research Papers (Nine Peer-Reviewed): A Note from Cohenite (Jennifer Marohasy Blog 2)
  15. Ten Worst Man-Made Disasters (Jennifer Marohasy Blog 3)
  16. Climate models struggling for credibility (Al Fin)
  17. Climate models fuzz (European Tribune)
  18. If it wasn't so serious then it'd be funny (Kerplunk - Common sense from Down Under)
  19. Laying the boot into climate models (The Tizona Group)
  20. More model mania (Planet Gore)
  21. New research on the credibility of climate predictions (SciForums)
  22. New paper demonstrates lack of credibility for climate model predictions 2 (Blogotariat)
  23. New study: climate models fail again (MSNBC Boards 1)
  24. Global Climate Models Fail (Again) (MSNBC Boards 2)
  25. On the credibility of climate predictions (Chronos)
  26. Sane skepticism, part 2 (Helicity)
  27. Science. On the credibility of climate predictions (Greenhouse Bullcrap)
  28. Testing global warming models (Assorted Meanderings)
  29. Climate cuttings 21 (Bishop Hill blog)
  30. Models, Climate Change and Credibility... (21st Century Schizoid Man)
  31. Two valuable perspectives on global warming (Fabius Maximus)
  32. Unreliability of climate models? (Climate Change)
  33. Crumbling Consensus: Global Climate Models Fail (Stubborn Facts)
  34. The Australian government's climate castle is built on sand (Greenie Watch)
  35. Koutsoyiannis et al 2008 (Detached Ideas)
  36. Credibility of Climate Predictions Paper (TWO community)
  37. "Climate consensus" continues to unravel (Solomonia)
  38. Climate models have no predictive value (Acadie 1755)
  39. Global Warming Summary series, Part 5: The Earth’s Greenhouse Gas – CO2 and IPCC Climate Modeling (Global Warming Science)
  40. Reducing Vulnerability to Climate-Sensitive Risks is the Best Insurance Policy (Cato Unbound)
  41. Global Warming News of the Week (No Oil for Pacifists)
  42. A few more cooling blasts at hot air balloons (Clothcap2 : My Telegraph)
  43. IPCC-Klimamodell unbrauchbar (jetzt Sueddeutsche)
  44. Uups II: IPCC-Klimamodelle fantasieren (Die Achse des Guten)
  45. Griechische Unsicherheiten (Climate Review)
  46. El fracaso de los modelos (Valdeperrillos)
  47. Klimamodeller er usikre (Debattcentralen - Aftenposten.no)
  48. Studie: Klimatmodellernas trovärdighet låg (Klimatsvammel)
  49. Credibilidad de las predicciones climáticas (FAEC Mitos y Fraudes)

Other reactions in weblogs, forums and Internet resources during 2008:

Climate Audit 2 * Climate Audit 3 * Real Climate 2 * Junk Science * Wikipedia * Wikipedia Talk 1 * Wikipedia Talk 2 * Wikipedia Talk 3 * Global Warming Clearinghouse 1 * Global Warming Clearinghouse 2 * Global Warming Clearinghouse 3 * ICECAP * Climate Feedback (Nature) * Google Groups - alt.global-warming 1 * Google Groups - alt.global-warming 2 * Google Groups - alt.politics.usa * Google Groups - sci.environment * Google Groups - sci.physics * Yahoo Tech Groups * Yahoo Message Boards * Andrew Bolt Blog 5 * Andrew Bolt Blog 6 * Andrew Bolt Blog 7 * Andrew Bolt Blog 8 * Andrew Bolt Blog 9 * Andrew Bolt Blog 10 * Andrew Bolt Blog 11 * Andrew Bolt Blog 12 * Andrew Bolt Blog 13 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 4 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 5 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 6 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 7 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 8 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 9 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 10 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 11 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 12 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 13 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 14 * The Blackboard 1 * The Blackboard 2 * The Motley Fool Discussion Boards 1 * The Motley Fool Discussion Boards 2 * The Daily Bayonet * FinanMart * JREF Forum 1 * JREF Forum 2 * JREF Forum 3 * AccuWeather * Climate Change Fraud 1 * Climate Change Fraud 2 * Climate Change Fraud 4 * Climate Change Fraud 5 * Watts Up With That? 1 * Watts Up With That? 2 * Watts Up With That? 3 * Watts Up With That? 4 * Watts Up With That? 5 * City-Data Forum * Climate Brains * Dvorak Uncensored * Newspoll * The Australian 1 * The Australian 2 * ABC Unleashed 1 * ABC Unleashed 2 * ABC Unleashed 3 * ABC Unleashed 4 * ABC Science Online Forum * Global Warming Skeptics * Niche Modeling * Dot Earth - The New York Times 1 * Dot Earth - The New York Times 2 * Dot Earth - The New York Times 3 * Dot Earth - The New York Times 4 * Dot Earth - The New York Times 5 * Dot Earth - The New York Times 6 * Bart Verheggen * WE Blog * Globe and Mail 1 * Globe and Mail 2 * Small Dead Animals * forums.ski.com.au * ABC Message Board * Sydney Morning Herald 1 (also published in the print version of the newspaper) * Sydney Morning Herald 2 * Sydney Morning Herald 3 * PistonHeads * Clipmarks * British Blogs * The Devil's Kitchen * Peak Oil Journal * The Volokh Conspiracy * Weather Underground * Capitol Grilling * Science & Environmental Policy Project * SookNET Technology * Climate Review 2 * Social Science News Central * Urban75 Forums * Wolf Howling * Launch Magazine Online * Popular Technology * The Environment Site Forums * CNC zone * Solar Cycle 24 Forums * Wired Science * Climate 411 * Daimnation * The Forum * Global Warming Information * Christian Forums 1 * Christian Forums 2 * CommonDreams.org 1 * CommonDreams.org 2 * Greenhouse Bullcrap 2 * Derkeiler Newsgroup * YouTube * Fresh Video * Topix * WeerOnline * The Air Vent * Greenfyre’s * Crikey * ChangeBringer * Scotsman.com News * Climate Change Controversies - David Pratt * Skeptical Science * Block’s Indicator of Sustainable Growth * Digg * Millard Fillmore’s Bathtub * News Busters * AgoraVox * Notre Planete * France 5 * Wissen - Sueddeutsche * Telepolis-Blogforen 1 * Telepolis-Blogforen 2 * Telepolis-Blogforen 3 * WirtschaftsWoche * Antizyklisches Forum * Oekologismus.de * Público.es * Uppsalainitiativet * Tiede.fi 1 * Tiede.fi 2 * Tiede.fi 3 * kolumbus.fi/ * De Rerum Natura * Ilmastonmuutos - totta vai tarua * Politics.be * Keisarin uudet vaatteet * Keskustelut * Que Treta * Svensson * Punditokraterne * StumbleUpon * Scribd

Our works referenced by this work:

1. Koutsoyiannis, D., The Hurst phenomenon and fractional Gaussian noise made easy, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 47 (4), 573–595, 2002.
2. Koutsoyiannis, D., Climate change, the Hurst phenomenon, and hydrological statistics, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 48 (1), 3–24, 2003.
3. Koutsoyiannis, D., Uncertainty, entropy, scaling and hydrological stochastics, 2, Time dependence of hydrological processes and time scaling, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 50 (3), 405–426, 2005.
4. Koutsoyiannis, D., A toy model of climatic variability with scaling behaviour, Journal of Hydrology, 322, 25–48, 2006.
5. Koutsoyiannis, D., Nonstationarity versus scaling in hydrology, Journal of Hydrology, 324, 239–254, 2006.
6. Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Efstratiadis, and K. Georgakakos, Uncertainty assessment of future hydroclimatic predictions: A comparison of probabilistic and scenario-based approaches, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 8 (3), 261–281, 2007.
7. Koutsoyiannis, D., and A. Montanari, Statistical analysis of hydroclimatic time series: Uncertainty and insights, Water Resources Research, 43 (5), W05429, doi:10.1029/2006WR005592, 2007.
8. Koutsoyiannis, D., and T.A. Cohn, The Hurst phenomenon and climate (solicited), European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2008, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 10, Vienna, 11804, European Geosciences Union, 2008.
9. Koutsoyiannis, D., N. Mamassis, A. Christofides, A. Efstratiadis, and S.M. Papalexiou, Assessment of the reliability of climate predictions based on comparisons with historical time series, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2008, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 10, Vienna, 09074, European Geosciences Union, 2008.

Our works that reference this work:

1. Koutsoyiannis, D., C. Makropoulos, A. Langousis, S. Baki, A. Efstratiadis, A. Christofides, G. Karavokiros, and N. Mamassis, Climate, hydrology, energy, water: recognizing uncertainty and seeking sustainability, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 13, 247–257, 2009.
2. Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Montanari, H. F. Lins, and T.A. Cohn, Climate, hydrology and freshwater: towards an interactive incorporation of hydrological experience into climate research—DISCUSSION of “The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management”, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 54 (2), 394–405, 2009.

Other works that reference this work:

1. Carter, R. M., Knock, knock: Where is the evidence for dangerous human-caused global warming?, Economic Analysis & Policy, 38(2), 177-202, 2008.
2. #Crockford, S., Some things we know — and don’t know —about polar bears, Report, Science and Public Policy Institute, 2008.
3. #Green, K. C., J. S. Armstrong and W. Soon, Benchmark forecasts for climate change, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 2008.
4. #Drinkwater, K., M. Skogen, S. Hjøllo, C. Schrum, I. Alekseeva, M. Huret and F. Léger, The effects of future climate change on the physical oceanography and comparisons of the mean and variability of the future physical properties with present day conditions, Report, RECLAIM EU/FP6 project (REsolving CLimAtic IMpacts on fish stocks), WP4 Future oceanographic changes, 28 pp., 2008.
5. Halley, J. M., Using models with long-term persistence to interpret the rapid increase of earth’s temperature, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 388(12), 2492-2502, 2009.
6. Kundzewicz, Z. W., L. J. Mata, N. W. Arnell, P. Döll, B. Jimenez, K. Miller, T. Oki and Z. Şen, Water and climate projections—Reply to discussion “Climate, hydrology and freshwater: towards an interactive incorporation of hydrological experience into climate research”, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 54(2), 406-415, 2009.
7. Hollowed, A. B., N. A. Bond, T. K. Wilderbuer, W. T. Stockhausen, Z. T. Amar, R. J. Beamish, J. E. Overland, and M. J. Schirripa, A framework for modelling fish and shellfish responses to future climate change, ICES Journal Of Marine Science, 66(7), 1584-1594, 2009.
8. MacDonald, A. M., R. C. Calow, D. M. J. MacDonald, W. G. Darling, and B. É. Ó. Dochartaigh, What impact will climate change have on rural groundwater supplies in Africa?, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 54(4), 690-703, 2009.
9. #Pilkey, O. H., and R. Young, The Rising Sea, 203 p., Island Press, Washington, DC, 2009.
10. Chiew, F.H.S., J. Tenga, J. Vazea, and D.G.C. Kirono, Influence of global climate model selection on runoff impact assessment, Journal of Hydrology, 379(1-2), 172-180, 2009.
11. McIntyre, D.R., James Hansen's 1988 predictions compared to observations, Energy and Environment, 20(4), 587-594, 2009.
12. Matthews, J., and A. J. Wickel, Embracing uncertainty in freshwater climate change adaptation: A natural history approach, Climate and Development, 1 (3), 269-279, 2009.
13. Blöschl, G., and A. Montanari, Climate change impacts - throwing the dice?, Hydrological Processes, 24(3), 374-381, 2010.
14. Kundzewicz, Z. W., Y. Hirabayashi and S. Kanae, River floods in the changing climate—Observations and projections, Water Resources Management, DOI: 10.1007/s11269-009-9571-6, 2010.
15. Romanowicz, R. J., A. Kiczko and J. J. Napiórkowski, Stochastic transfer function model applied to combined reservoir management and flow routing, Hydrol. Sci. J., 55(1), 27–40, 2010.

Tagged under: Course bibliography: Hydrometeorology, Climate stochastics