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Statistical analysis of hydroclimatic time series: Uncertainty and insights
Koutsoyiannis, D., and A. Montanari, Statistical analysis of hydroclimatic time series: Uncertainty and insights, Water Resources Research, 43 (5), W05429, doi:10.1029/2006WR005592, 2007.
[doc_id=781]
[English]
Today, hydrologic research and modeling depends largely on climatological inputs, whose physical and statistical behavior are the subject of many debates in the scientific community. A relevant ongoing discussion is focused on long-term persistence (LTP), a natural behavior identified in several studies of instrumental and proxy hydroclimatic time series, which, nevertheless, is neglected in some climatological studies. LTP may reflect a long-term variability of several factors and thus can support a more complete physical understanding and uncertainty characterization of climate. The implications of LTP in hydroclimatic research, especially in statistical questions and problems, may be substantial but appear to be not fully understood or recognized. To offer insights on these implications, we demonstrate by using analytical methods that the characteristics of temperature series, which appear to be compatible with the LTP hypothesis, imply a dramatic increase of uncertainty in statistical estimation and reduction of significance in statistical testing, in comparison with classical statistics. Therefore we maintain that statistical analysis in hydroclimatic research should be revisited in order not to derive misleading results and simultaneously that merely statistical arguments do not suffice to verify or falsify the LTP (or another) climatic hypothesis.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006WR005592
Our works referenced by this work:
| 1. |
Koutsoyiannis, D., The Hurst phenomenon and fractional Gaussian noise made easy, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 47 (4), 573–595, 2002. |
| 2. |
Koutsoyiannis, D., Climate change, the Hurst phenomenon, and hydrological statistics, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 48 (1), 3–24, 2003. |
| 3. |
Koutsoyiannis, D., Uncertainty, entropy, scaling and hydrological stochastics, 1, Marginal distributional properties of hydrological processes and state scaling, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 50 (3), 381–404, 2005. |
| 4. |
Koutsoyiannis, D., Uncertainty, entropy, scaling and hydrological stochastics, 2, Time dependence of hydrological processes and time scaling, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 50 (3), 405–426, 2005. |
| 5. |
Koutsoyiannis, D., A toy model of climatic variability with scaling behaviour, Journal of Hydrology, 322, 25–48, 2006. |
| 6. |
Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Efstratiadis, and K. Georgakakos, Uncertainty assessment of future hydroclimatic predictions: A comparison of probabilistic and scenario-based approaches, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 8 (3), 261–281, 2007. |
Our works that reference this work:
| 1. |
Cudennec, C., C. Leduc, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Dryland hydrology in Mediterranean regions -- a review, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 52 (6), 1077–1087, 2007. |
| 2. |
Koutsoyiannis, D., H. Yao, and A. Georgakakos, Medium-range flow prediction for the Nile: a comparison of stochastic and deterministic methods, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53 (1), 142–164, 2008. |
| 3. |
Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, and A. Christofides, On the credibility of climate predictions, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53 (4), 671–684, 2008. |
| 4. |
Koutsoyiannis, D., C. Makropoulos, A. Langousis, S. Baki, A. Efstratiadis, A. Christofides, G. Karavokiros, and N. Mamassis, Climate, hydrology, energy, water: recognizing uncertainty and seeking sustainability, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 13, 247–257, 2009. |
| 5. |
Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Montanari, H. F. Lins, and T.A. Cohn, Climate, hydrology and freshwater: towards an interactive incorporation of hydrological experience into climate research—DISCUSSION of “The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management”, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 54 (2), 394–405, 2009. |
| 6. |
Koutsoyiannis, D., A random walk on water, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 6, 6611–6658, 2009. |
Other works that reference this work:
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Hamed, K.H., Trend detection in hydrologic data: The Mann-Kendall trend test under the scaling hypothesis, Journal of Hydrology, 349(3-4), 350-363, 2008. |
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Barnett, T.P., and D.W. Pierce, When will Lake Mead go dry?, Water Resources Research, 44, W03201, 2008. |
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3.
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Khaliq, M.N., T.B.M.J. Ouarda, P. Gachon and L. Sushama, Temporal evolution of low-flow regimes in Canadian rivers, Water Resources Research, 44 (8), W08436, 2008. |
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4.
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Komnitsas, K., and K. Modis, Geostatistical risk estimation at waste disposal sites in the presence of hot spots, J. Hazard. Mater., 164 (2-3), 1185-1190, 2009. |
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5.
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Halley, J. M., Using models with long-term persistence to interpret the rapid increase of earth’s temperature, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 388(12), 2492-2502, 2009. |
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Khaliq, M., T. Ouarda, P. Gachon, L. Sushama and A. St-Hilaire, Identification of hydrological trends in the presence of serial and cross correlations: A review of selected methods and their application to annual flow regimes of Canadian rivers, Journal of Hydrology, 368(1-4), 117-130, 2009. |
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7.
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Khaliq, M., T. Ouarda, and P. Gachon, Identification of temporal trends in annual and seasonal low flows occurring in Canadian rivers: The effect of short- and long-term persistence, Journal of Hydrology, 369(1-2), 183-197, 2009. |
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8.
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Déry, S. J., K. Stahl, R. D. Moore, P. H. Whitfield, B. Menounos, and J. E. Burford, Detection of runoff timing changes in pluvial, nival, and glacial rivers of western Canada, Water Resour. Res., 45, W04426, doi:10.1029/2008WR006975, 2009. |
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9.
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Kumar, S., V. Merwade, J. Kam, and K. Thurner, Streamflow trends in Indiana: Effects of long term persistence, precipitation and subsurface drains, Journal of Hydrology, 374(1-2), 171-183, 2009. |
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Hamed, K. H., Effect of persistence on the significance of Kendall’s tau as a measure of correlation between natural time series, The European Physical Journal, 174 (1), 65-79, 2009. |
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11.
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Villarini, G., F. Serinaldi, J. A. Smith, and W. F. Krajewski, On the stationarity of annual flood peaks in the continental United States during the 20th century, Water Resour. Res., 45, W08417, doi:10.1029/2008WR007645, 2009. |
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12.
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Fatichi, S., S. M. Barbosa, E. Caporali and M. E. Silva, Deterministic versus stochastic trends: Detection and challenges, Journal Of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 114, D18121, doi:10.1029/2009JD011960, 2009. |
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13.
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Zhang, Z., A. D. Dehoff, R. D. Pody and J. W. Balay, Detection of Streamflow Change in the Susquehanna River Basin, Water Resources Management, DOI: 10.1007/s11269-009-9532-0, 2009. |
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14.
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Ehsanzadeh, E., and K. Adamowski, Trends in timing of low stream flows in Canada: impact of autocorrelation and long-term persistence, Hydrological Processes, DOI: 10.1002/hyp.7533, 2009. |
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15.
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Allamano, P., P. Claps and F. Laio, Global warming increases flood risk in mountainous areas, Geophysical Research Letters, 36, Art. No. L24404, DOI: 10.1029/2009GL041395, 2009. |
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16.
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Modis, K., K. Vatalis, G. Papantonopoulos, and C. Sachanidis Uncertainty management of a hydrogeological data set in a greek lignite basin, using BME, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 24 (1), 47-56, 2010. |
Tagged under:
Course bibliography: Hydrometeorology,
Climate stochastics,
Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics,
Papers initially rejected,
Scaling,
Stochastics,
Uncertainty
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