Stochastic analysis and simulation of hydrometeorological processes associated with wind and solar energy

G. Tsekouras, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic analysis and simulation of hydrometeorological processes associated with wind and solar energy, Renewable Energy, 63, 624–633, doi:10.1016/j.renene.2013.10.018, 2014.

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[English]

The current model for energy production, based on the intense use of fossil fuels, is both unsustainable and environmentally harmful and consequently, a shift is needed in the direction of integrating the renewable energy sources into the energy balance. However, these energy sources are unpredictable and uncontrollable as they strongly depend on time varying and uncertain hydrometeorological variables such as wind speed, sunshine duration and solar radiation. To study the design and management of renewable energy systems we investigate both the properties of marginal distributions and the dependence properties of these natural processes, including possible long-term persistence by estimating and analyzing the Hurst coefficient. To this aim we use time series of wind speed and sunshine duration retrieved from European databases of daily records. We also study a stochastic simulation framework for both wind and solar systems using the software system Castalia, which performs multivariate and multi-time-scale stochastic simulation, in order to conduct simultaneous generation of synthetic time series of wind speed and sunshine duration, on yearly, monthly and daily scale.

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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2013.10.018

Our works referenced by this work:

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13. H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Simultaneous estimation of the parameters of the Hurst-Kolmogorov stochastic process, Stochastic Environmental Research & Risk Assessment, 25 (1), 21–33, 2011.
14. D. Koutsoyiannis, Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics and uncertainty, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 47 (3), 481–495, doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00543.x, 2011.
15. Y. Markonis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Climatic variability over time scales spanning nine orders of magnitude: Connecting Milankovitch cycles with Hurst–Kolmogorov dynamics, Surveys in Geophysics, 34 (2), 181–207, doi:10.1007/s10712-012-9208-9, 2013.
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Our works that reference this work:

1. A. Efstratiadis, Y. Dialynas, S. Kozanis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A multivariate stochastic model for the generation of synthetic time series at multiple time scales reproducing long-term persistence, Environmental Modelling and Software, 62, 139–152, doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.08.017, 2014.
2. Y. Markonis, S. C. Batelis, Y. Dimakos, E. C. Moschou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall over Greece, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, doi:10.1007/s00704-016-1878-7, 2016.
3. P. Kossieris, C. Makropoulos, C. Onof, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A rainfall disaggregation scheme for sub-hourly time scales: Coupling a Bartlett-Lewis based model with adjusting procedures, Journal of Hydrology, 556, 980–992, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.07.015, 2018.
4. P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic synthesis approximating any process dependence and distribution, Stochastic Environmental Research & Risk Assessment, 32 (6), 1493–1515, doi:10.1007/s00477-018-1540-2, 2018.
5. G. Koudouris, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A stochastic model for the hourly solar radiation process for application in renewable resources management, Advances in Geosciences, 45, 139–145, doi:10.5194/adgeo-45-139-2018, 2018.
6. P. Dimitriadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, T. Iliopoulou, and P. Papanicolaou, A global-scale investigation of stochastic similarities in marginal distribution and dependence structure of key hydrological-cycle processes, Hydrology, 8 (2), 59, doi:10.3390/hydrology8020059, 2021.
7. G.-K. Sakki, I. Tsoukalas, P. Kossieris, C. Makropoulos, and A. Efstratiadis, Stochastic simulation-optimisation framework for the design and assessment of renewable energy systems under uncertainty, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 168, 112886, doi:10.1016/j.rser.2022.112886, 2022.
8. D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastics of Hydroclimatic Extremes - A Cool Look at Risk, Edition 3, ISBN: 978-618-85370-0-2, 391 pages, doi:10.57713/kallipos-1, Kallipos Open Academic Editions, Athens, 2023.
9. A. Zisos, G.-K. Sakki, and A. Efstratiadis, Mixing renewable energy with pumped hydropower storage: Design optimization under uncertainty and other challenges, Sustainability, 15 (18), 13313, doi:10.3390/su151813313, 2023.

Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate

Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):

1. Varotsos, C. A., and M. N. Efstathiou, Symmetric scaling properties in global surface air temperature anomalies, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-014-1274-0, 2014.
2. Abdelaziz, A. Y., Y. G. Hegazy, W. El-Khattam and M.M. Othman, Optimal allocation of stochastically dependent renewable energy based distributed generators in unbalanced distribution networks, Electric Power Systems Research, 119, 34-44, 2015.
3. #Fortuna, L., S. Nunnari and A. Gallo, A typical day based approach to detrend solar radiation time series, MAED '14 Proceedings of the 3rd ACM International Workshop on Multimedia Analysis for Ecological Data, 25-30, ACM New York, NY, USA, 2014.
4. Othman, M.M., A.Y. Abdelaziz, Y. G. Hegazi and W. El-Khattam, Approach for modelling stochastically dependent renewable energy-based generators using diagonal band copula, IET Renewable Power Generation, 9 (7), 809-820, 10.1049/iet-rpg.2014.0205, 2015.
5. Bardsley, E., A finite mixture approach to univariate data simulation with moment matching, Environmental Modelling & Software, 90, 27-33, doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.11.019, 2017.

Tagged under: Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics, Hydrosystems, Stochastics, Students' works, Water and energy