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Climatic variability over time scales spanning nine orders of magnitude: Connecting Milankovitch cycles with Hurst–Kolmogorov dynamics

Markonis, Y., and D. Koutsoyiannis, Climatic variability over time scales spanning nine orders of magnitude: Connecting Milankovitch cycles with Hurst–Kolmogorov dynamics, Surveys in Geophysics, 34 (2), 181–207, 2013.

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[English]

We overview studies of the natural variability of past climate, as seen from available proxy information, and its attribution to deterministic or stochastic controls. Furthermore, we characterize this variability over the widest possible range of scales that the available information allows, and we try to connect the deterministic Milankovitch cycles with the Hurst–Kolmogorov (HK) stochastic dynamics. To this aim, we analyse two instrumental series of global temperature and eight proxy series with varying lengths from 2 thousand to 500 million years. In our analysis, we use a simple tool, the climacogram, which is the logarithmic plot of standard deviation versus time scale, and its slope can be used to identify the presence of HK dynamics. By superimposing the climacograms of the different series, we obtain an impressive overview of the variability for time scales spanning almost nine orders of magnitude—from 1 month to 50 million years. An overall climacogram slope of −0.08 supports the presence of HK dynamics with Hurst coefficient of at least 0.92. The orbital forcing (Milankovitch cycles) is also evident in the combined climacogram at time scales between 10 and 100 thousand years. While orbital forcing favours predictability at the scales it acts, the overview of climate variability at all scales suggests a big picture of irregular change and uncertainty of Earth’s climate.

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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10712-012-9208-9

Remarks:

Blog posts and discussions can be seen in Watts Up With That? (reproduced in I4U News), Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr., Bishop Hill blog (reproduced in I4U News-2), The Resilient Earth (reproduced in The Global Warming Policy Foundation), Climate ExChange, Science Alerts, Science & Environmental Policy Project: Newsletter (reproduced in the Third Millennium Times), Archaeopteryx.

Errata: See some minor corrections in the related pdf file linked above. URL of the Corrigendum: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10712-014-9278-y

Our works referenced by this work:

1. Koutsoyiannis, D., The Hurst phenomenon and fractional Gaussian noise made easy, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 47 (4), 573–595, 2002.
2. Koutsoyiannis, D., Climate change, the Hurst phenomenon, and hydrological statistics, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 48 (1), 3–24, 2003.
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Our works that reference this work:

1. Koutsoyiannis, D., Hydrology and Change, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (6), 1177–1197, 2013.
2. Lombardo, F., E. Volpi, D. Koutsoyiannis, and S.M. Papalexiou, Just two moments! A cautionary note against use of high-order moments in multifractal models in hydrology, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 243–255, 2014.
3. Tyralis, H., and D. Koutsoyiannis, A Bayesian statistical model for deriving the predictive distribution of hydroclimatic variables, Climate Dynamics, 42 (11-12), 2867–2883, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1804-y, 2014.
4. Tsekouras, G., and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic analysis and simulation of hydrometeorological processes associated with wind and solar energy, Renewable Energy, 63, 624–633, 2014.
5. Pappas, C., S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A quick gap-filling of missing hydrometeorological data, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 119 (15), 9290–9300, doi:10.1002/2014JD021633, 2014.
6. Ceola, S., A. Montanari, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Toward a theoretical framework for integrated modeling of hydrological change, WIREs Water, doi:10.1002/wat2.1038, 2014.

Other works that reference this work:

1. Varotsos, C. A., M. N. Efstathiou and A. P. Cracknell, On the scaling effect in global surface air temperature anomalies, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5243-5253, 2013.
2. Thompson, S. E., M. Sivapalan, C. J. Harman, V. Srinivasan, M. R. Hipsey, P. Reed, A. Montanari and G. and Blöschl, Developing predictive insight into changing water systems: use-inspired hydrologic science for the Anthropocene, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 5013-5039, 2013.
3. Fleming, S. W., A non-uniqueness problem in the identification of power-law spectral scaling for hydroclimatic time series, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 73–84, 2014.
4. Glatzle, A., Questioning key conclusions of FAO publications ‘Livestock’s Long Shadow’ (2006) appearing again in ‘Tackling Climate Change Through Livestock’ (2013), Pastoralism: Research, Policy and Practice, 10.1186/2041-7136-4-1, 2014.
5. Hall, J., B. Arheimer, M. Borga, R. Brázdil, P. Claps, A. Kiss, T. R. Kjeldsen, J. Kriaučiūnienė, Z.W. Kundzewicz, M. Lang, M. C. Llasat, N. Macdonald, N. McIntyre, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, C. Neuhold, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, L. Plavcová, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, C. Schär, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione and G. Blöschl, Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: a state-of-the-art assessment, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2735-2772, 10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, 2014.
6. Soon, W., V. M. Velasco Herrera, K. Selvaraj, R. Traversi, I. Usoskin, C.-T. A. Chen, J.-Y. Lou, S.-J. Kao, R. M. Carter, V. Pipin, M. Severi, S. Becagli, A review of Holocene solar-linked climatic variation on centennial to millennial timescales: Physical processes, interpretative frameworks and a new multiple cross-wavelet transform algorithm, Earth-Science Reviews, 10.1016/j.earscirev.2014.03.003, 2014.
7. Varotsos, C. A., C. L. E. Franzke, M. N. Efstathiou and A. G. Degermendzhi, Evidence for two abrupt warming events of SST in the last century, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 116 (1-2), 51-60, 2014.
8. Østvand, L., K. Rypdal and M. Rypdal, Statistical significance of rising and oscillatory trends in global ocean and land temperature in the past 160 years, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 5, 327-362, 10.5194/esdd-5-327-2014, 2014.
9. Glatzle, A., Severe methodological deficiencies associated with claims of domestic livestock driving climate change, Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering, B 2, 586-601, 2014.
10. Arheimer, B., and G. Lindström, Climate impact on floods – changes of high-flows in Sweden for the past and future (1911–2100), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 11, 7551-7584, 10.5194/hessd-11-7551-2014, 2014.
11. Lovejoy, S., A voyage through scales, a missing quadrillion and why the climate is not what you expect, Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-014-2324-0, 2014.

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