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A random walk on water

Koutsoyiannis, D., A random walk on water, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 6, 6611–6658, 2009.

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[English]

According to the traditional notion of randomness and uncertainty, natural phenomena are separated into two mutually exclusive components, random (or stochastic) and deterministic. Within this dichotomous logic, the deterministic part supposedly represents cause-effect relationships and, thus, is physics and science (the “good”), whereas randomness has little relationship with science and no relationship with understanding (the “evil”). We argue that such views should be reconsidered by admitting that uncertainty is an intrinsic property of nature, that causality implies dependence of natural processes in time, thus suggesting predictability, but even the tiniest uncertainty (e.g., in initial conditions) may result in unpredictability after a certain time horizon. On these premises it is possible to shape a consistent stochastic representation of natural processes, in which predictability (suggested by deterministic laws) and unpredictability (randomness) coexist and are not separable or additive components. Deciding which of the two dominates is simply a matter of specifying the time horizon of the prediction. Long horizons of prediction are inevitably associated with high uncertainty, whose quantification relies on understanding the long-term stochastic properties of the processes.

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See also: http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/6/6611/2009/

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Blog posts and discussions can be seen in Outside the Cube, William M. Briggs, Niche Modeling 1, Niche Modeling 2, The Blackboard 1 (Comment#23633), The Blackboard 2 (Comment#33419), Climate Audit.

Our works referenced by this work:

1. Koutsoyiannis, D., On the quest for chaotic attractors in hydrological processes, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 51 (6), 1065–1091, 2006.
2. Koutsoyiannis, D., and A. Montanari, Statistical analysis of hydroclimatic time series: Uncertainty and insights, Water Resources Research, 43 (5), W05429, doi:10.1029/2006WR005592, 2007.
3. Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Montanari, H. F. Lins, and T.A. Cohn, Climate, hydrology and freshwater: towards an interactive incorporation of hydrological experience into climate research—DISCUSSION of “The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management”, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 54 (2), 394–405, 2009.

Other works that reference this work:

1. Blöschl, G., and A. Montanari, Climate change impacts - throwing the dice?, Hydrological Processes, DOI:10.1002/hyp.7574, 24(3), 374-381, 2010.

Tagged under: Course bibliography: Hydrometeorology, Course bibliography: Stochastic methods, Climate stochastics, Determinism vs. stochasticity, Entropy, Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics, Scaling, Stochastics, Uncertainty