D. Koutsoyiannis, A probabilistic view of Hershfield's method for estimating probable maximum precipitation, Water Resources Research, 35 (4), 1313–1322, doi:10.1029/1999WR900002, 1999.
[Πιθανοτική θεώρηση της μεθόδου Hershfield για την εκτίμηση της πιθανής μέγιστης κατακρήμνισης]
[doc_id=23]
[Αγγλικά]
Προτείνεται μια εναλλακτική διατύπωση της στατιστικής μεθόδου Hershfield για την εκτίμηση της πιθανής μέγιστης κατακρήμνισης (ΠΜΚ). Συγκεκριμένα, αποδεικνύεται ότι τα δεδομένα που έχουν δημοσιευτεί από τον Hershfield δεν επιβεβαιώνουν την υπόθεση για την ύπαρξη της ΠΜΚ ως φυσικού ανώτατου ορίου και γι' αυτό προτείνεται ως συνεπέστερη η καθαρώς πιθανοτική θεώρηση των δεδομένων. Επιπλέον, χρησιμοποιώντας το ίδιο σύνολο δεδομένων, αποδεικνύεται ότι η εκτίμηση της ΠΜΚ κατά Hershfield μπορεί να εξαχθεί εναλλακτικά χρησιμοποιώντας την κατανομή Γενική Ακραίων Τιμών (ΓΑΤ) για περίοδο επαναφοράς 60 000 ετών και για παράμετρο σχήματος που δίνεται από μια γραμμική συνάρτηση της μέσης τιμής του δείγματος των ετήσιων μέγιστων κατακρημνίσεων. Η διατύπωση αυτή υποκαθιστά πλήρως το κλασικό εμπειρικό νομογράφημα που χρησιμοποιείται για την εφαρμογή της μεθόδου. Η εφαρμογή της μεθόδου βελτιώνεται όταν είναι διαθέσιμα τοπικά δείγματα βροχοπτώσεων με μεγάλο μήκος, τα οποία μπορούν να οδηγήσουν σε ακριβή εκτίμηση της παραμέτρου σχήματος της κατανομής ΓΑΤ.
Το πλήρες κείμενο διατίθεται μόνο στο δίκτυο του ΕΜΠ λόγω νομικών περιορισμών
Συμπληρωματικό υλικό:
Βλέπε επίσης: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900002
Εργασίες μας στις οποίες αναφέρεται αυτή η εργασία:
1. | D. Koutsoyiannis, D. Kozonis, and A. Manetas, A mathematical framework for studying rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationships, Journal of Hydrology, 206 (1-2), 118–135, doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(98)00097-3, 1998. |
2. | D. Koutsoyiannis, and G. Baloutsos, Analysis of a long record of annual maximum rainfall in Athens, Greece, and design rainfall inferences, Natural Hazards, 22 (1), 29–48, doi:10.1023/A:1008001312219, 2000. |
Εργασίες μας που αναφέρονται σ' αυτή την εργασία:
1. | D. Koutsoyiannis, Statistics of extremes and estimation of extreme rainfall, 1, Theoretical investigation, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 49 (4), 575–590, doi:10.1623/hysj.49.4.575.54430, 2004. |
2. | D. Koutsoyiannis, Statistics of extremes and estimation of extreme rainfall, 2, Empirical investigation of long rainfall records, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 49 (4), 591–610, doi:10.1623/hysj.49.4.591.54424, 2004. |
3. | S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A probabilistic approach to the concept of probable maximum precipitation, Advances in Geosciences, 7, 51-54, doi:10.5194/adgeo-7-51-2006, 2006. |
4. | Δ. Κουτσογιάννης, Παλιότερες και σύγχρονες υδρολογικές θεωρήσεις στο σχεδιασμό και τη διαχείριση των ταμιευτήρων, των φραγμάτων και των υδροηλεκτρικών εγκαταστάσεων (Προσκεκλημένη ομιλία), 1ο Πανελλήνιο Συνέδριο Μεγάλων Φραγμάτων, Λάρισα, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.3213.5922, Ελληνική Επιτροπή Μεγάλων Φραγμάτων, Τεχνικό Επιμελητήριο Ελλάδας, 2008. |
5. | D. Koutsoyiannis, C. Makropoulos, A. Langousis, S. Baki, A. Efstratiadis, A. Christofides, G. Karavokiros, and N. Mamassis, Climate, hydrology, energy, water: recognizing uncertainty and seeking sustainability, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 13, 247–257, doi:10.5194/hess-13-247-2009, 2009. |
6. | D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Langousis, Precipitation, Treatise on Water Science, edited by P. Wilderer and S. Uhlenbrook, 2, 27–78, doi:10.1016/B978-0-444-53199-5.00027-0, Academic Press, Oxford, 2011. |
7. | S.M. Papalexiou, D. Koutsoyiannis, and C. Makropoulos, How extreme is extreme? An assessment of daily rainfall distribution tails, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 851–862, doi:10.5194/hess-17-851-2013, 2013. |
8. | D. Koutsoyiannis, and S.M. Papalexiou, Extreme rainfall: Global perspective, Handbook of Applied Hydrology, Second Edition, edited by V.P. Singh, 74.1–74.16, McGraw-Hill, New York, 2017. |
9. | A. Koskinas, A. Tegos, P. Tsira, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, P. Papanicolaou, D. Koutsoyiannis, and Τ. Williamson, Insights into the Oroville Dam 2017 spillway incident, Geosciences, 9 (37), doi:10.3390/geosciences9010037, 2019. |
10. | D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastics of Hydroclimatic Extremes - A Cool Look at Risk, Εκδοση 3, ISBN: 978-618-85370-0-2, 391 pages, doi:10.57713/kallipos-1, Kallipos Open Academic Editions, Athens, 2023. |
Άλλες εργασίες που αναφέρονται σ' αυτή την εργασία: Δείτε τις στο Google Scholar ή στο ResearchGate
Άλλες εργασίες που αναφέρονται σ' αυτή την εργασία (αυτός ο κατάλογος μπορεί να μην είναι ενημερωμένος):
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3. | Douglas, E.M., and A.P. Barros, Probable maximum precipitation estimation using multifractals: Application in the eastern United States, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 4 (6), 1012-1024, 2003. |
4. | Lazaridou, P.L., E.I. Daniil, S.N. Michas, P.N. Papanicolaou and L.S. Lazarides, Integrated environmental and hydraulic design of Xerias river, Corinthos, Greece, Training Works, Water, Air and Soil Pollution: Focus, 4, 319-330,2004. |
5. | #Daniil, E.I., S. Michas, G. Bouklis, P.L. Lazaridou and L.S. Lazarides L.S., Flood management and control in an urban environment: Diakoniaris case study, River Flow 2004, Vol. 2, 1411-1420, ed. by M. Greco et al., Balkema (ISBN 9058096882), 2004. |
6. | Arnaud, P., J. Lavabre, B. Sol and C. Desouches, Rainfall risk of France, Houille Blanche, (5) 102-111, 2006. |
7. | #Daniil, E.I., G.D. Bouclis, S.N. Michas, P.L. Lazaridou & L.S. Lazarides, Hydrologic issues in flood management and control in an urban environment in Greece, Proceedings of Protection & Restoration of the Environment VIII, Mykonos, Greece, 2006. |
8. | Deshpande, N.R., B.D. Kulkarni, A.K. Verma and B.N. Mandal, Extreme rainfall analysis and estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) by statistical methods over the Indus river basin in India, Journal of Spatial Hydrology, 8(1), 22-36, 2008 |
9. | Casas, M.C., R. Rodríguez, R. Nieto and A. Redaño, The estimation of probable maximum precipitation: The case of Catalonia, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1146, 291-302, 2008. |
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11. | Xu Y.-P., and Y.-K. Tung, Constrained scaling approach for design rainfall estimation, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 23(6), 697-705, 2009. |
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15. | Poon, H. C., and H. H. Hwee, Probable maximum precipitation derivation in Malaysia: Review and comparison, International Journal of HydroClimatic Engineering, 1 (1), 37-72, 2010. |
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18. | Casas, M. C., R. Rodríguez, M. Prohom, A. Gázquez and A. Redaño, Estimation of the probable maximum precipitation in Barcelona (Spain), International Journal of Climatology, 31 (9), 1322-1327, 2011. |
19. | Gheidari, M. H. N., A. Telvari, H. Babazadeh and M. Manshouri, Estimating design probable maximum precipitation using multifractal methods and comparison with statistical and synoptically methods - Case study: Basin of Bakhtiari Dam, Water Resources, 38 (4), 484-493, 2011. |
20. | #Lee, P. S., and G. J.-Y. You, The risk analysis of long term impact to reservoir under extreme hydrologic events - Shihmen reservoir, a case study, Proceedings of the 2011 World Environmental and Water Resources Congress: Bearing Knowledge for Sustainability, 1237-1246, 2011. |
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23. | Alias, N. E., and K. Takara, Estimating the probable maximum precipitation of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia and Yodo River basin, Japan using statistical methods, Journal of Disaster Research, 8 (1), 197-198, 2013. |
24. | Bossé, B., B. Bussière, R. Hakkou, A. Maqsoud and M. Benzaazoua, Assessment of phosphate limestone wastes as a component of a store-and-release cover in a semiarid climate, Mine Water and the Environment, 10.1007/s10230-013-0225-9, 2013. |
25. | Lee, B.-S., and G. J.-Y. You, An assessment of long-term overtopping risk and optimal termination time of dam under climate change, Journal of Environmental Management, 121, 57-71, 2013. |
26. | Beauchamp, J., R. Leconte, M. Trudel and F. Brissette, Estimation of the summer-fall PMP and PMF of a northern watershed under a changed climate, Water Resources Research, 10.1002/wrcr.20336, 2013. |
27. | #Sidek, L. M., M. D. Mohd Nor, P. R. Rakhecha, H. Basri, W. Jayothisa, R. S. Muda, M. N. Ahmad and A. Z. Abdul Razad, Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) over mountainous region of Cameron Highlands- Batang Padang Catchment of Malaysia, 4th International Conference on Energy and Environment 2013 (ICEE 2013), IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 16, 10.1088/1755-1315/16/1/012049, 2013. |
28. | #Tomlinson, E., B. Kappel, G. Muhlestein, D. Hultstrand and T. Parzybok, Probable Maximum Precipitation Study for Arizona, Arizona Department of Water Resources, Arizona, USA, 2013. |
29. | #Kappel, B., G. Muhlestein, E. Tomlinson, D. Hultstrand and M. Johnson, Calculating Arizona basin-specific PMP using the PMP evaluation tool, Association of State Dam Safety Officials Annual Conference 2013, Dam Safety 2013, 2, 904-969, 2013. |
30. | #Lorente Castelló, J., M.C. Casas Castillo, R.Rodríguez Solà and A. Redaño Xipell, Extreme rainfall rates and probable maximum precipitation, Adverse Weather in Spain, 135-148, 2013. |
31. | Lagos, M. A. Z., and X. M. Vargas, PMP and PMF estimations in sparsely-gauged Andean basins and climate change projections, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 10.1080/02626667.2013.877588, 2014. |
32. | De Paola, F., M. Giugni, M. E. Topa and E. Bucchignani, Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) rainfall curves, for data series and climate projection in African cities, SpringerPlus, 10.1186/2193-1801-3-133, 2014. |
33. | Costa, V., W. Fernandes and M. Naghettini, A Bayesian model for stochastic generation of daily precipitation using an upper-bounded distribution function, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 10.1007/s00477-014-0880-9, 2014. |
34. | Soltani, M., F. Khoshakhlagh, P. Zawar-Reza, S. T. K. Miller, M. Molanejad and A. R. SaadatAbadi, Probable maximum precipitation estimation using statistical and physical methods over Esfahan Province of Iran, Research Journal of Forest and Environmental Protection, 1 (1), 38-55, 2014. |
35. | Ishida, K., M. Kavvas, S. Jang, Z. Chen, N. Ohara and M. Anderson, Physically based estimation of maximum precipitation over three watersheds in Northern California: Atmospheric boundary condition shifting, J. Hydrol. Eng., 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001026, 2014. |
36. | #Salas, J. D., G. Gavilán, F. R. Salas, P. Y. Julien and J. Abdullah, Uncertainty of the PMP and PMF, Handbook of Engineering Hydrology - Modeling, Climate Change and Variability (ed. by S. Eslamian), Taylor & Francis, Boca Raton, FL, USA, 575-603, 2014. |
37. | Griffiths, G.A., A. I. McKerchar and C. P. Pearson, Towards prediction of extreme rainfalls in New Zealand, Journal of Hydrology (New Zealand), 53 (1), 41-52, 2014. |
38. | Walega, A., and B. Michalec, Characteristics of extreme heavy precipitation events occurring in the area of Cracow (Poland), Soil and Water Research, 9 (4), 182-191, 2014. |
39. | Micovic, Z., M.G. Schaefer and G.H. Taylor, Uncertainty analysis for Probable Maximum Precipitation estimates, Journal of Hydrology, 521, 360-373, 2015. |
40. | Pérez-Zanón, N., M.C. Casas-Castillo, R. Rodríguez-Solà, J.C. Peña, A. Rius, J.G. Solé and A. Redaño, Analysis of extreme rainfall in the Ebre Observatory (Spain), Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-015-1476-0, 2015. |
41. | Chavan, S.R., and V.V. Srinivas, Probable maximum precipitation estimation for catchments in Mahanadi river basin, Aquatic Procedia, 4, 892-899, 2015. |
42. | #Donnelly, C.R., ICOLD 2015 - Question 97, Spillways [Évacuateurs de Crues], DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4513.9041, 2015. |
43. | #Haddad, K., and A. Rahman, Estimation of large to extreme floods using a regionalization model, Landscape Dynamics, Soils and Hydrological Processes in Varied Climates (ed. by A.M. Melesse and W. Abtew, 279-292, 10.1007/978-3-319-18787-7_14, 2016. |
Κατηγορίες: Βιβλιογραφία μαθήματος: Υδρομετεωρολογία, Ντετερμινισμός και στοχαστικότητα, Ακραία φαινόμενα, Μοντέλα βροχής