Navigation

Hydrology and Change

D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrology and Change, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (6), 1177–1197, doi:10.1080/02626667.2013.804626, 2013.

[doc_id=1351]

[English]

Since “panta rhei” was pronounced by Heraclitus, hydrology and the objects it studies, such as rivers and lakes, offer grounds to observe and understand change and flux. Change occurs on all time scales, from minute to geological, but our limited senses and life span, as well as the short time window of instrumental observations, restrict our perception to the most apparent daily to yearly variations. As a result, our typical modelling practices assume that natural changes are just a short-term “noise” superimposed to the daily and annual cycles in a scene that is static and invariant in the long run. According to this perception, only an exceptional and extraordinary forcing can produce a long-term change. The hydrologist H. E. Hurst, studying the long flow records of the Nile and other geophysical time series, was the first to observe a natural behaviour, named after him, related to multi-scale change, as well as its implications in engineering designs. Essentially, this behaviour manifests that long-term changes are much more frequent and intense than commonly perceived and, simultaneously, that the future states are much more uncertain and unpredictable on long time horizons than implied by standard approaches. Surprisingly, however, the implications of multi-scale change have not been assimilated in geophysical sciences. A change of perspective is thus needed, in which change and uncertainty are essential parts.

PDF Full text (1977 KB)

PDF Additional material:

See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.804626

Related works:

Our works referenced by this work:

1. D. Koutsoyiannis, The Hurst phenomenon and fractional Gaussian noise made easy, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 47 (4), 573–595, doi:10.1080/02626660209492961, 2002.
2. D. Koutsoyiannis, Climate change, the Hurst phenomenon, and hydrological statistics, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 48 (1), 3–24, doi:10.1623/hysj.48.1.3.43481, 2003.
3. D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Georgakakos, Lessons from the long flow records of the Nile: determinism vs indeterminism and maximum entropy, 20 Years of Nonlinear Dynamics in Geosciences, Rhodes, Greece, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.10996.14727, 2006.
4. D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Montanari, Statistical analysis of hydroclimatic time series: Uncertainty and insights, Water Resources Research, 43 (5), W05429, doi:10.1029/2006WR005592, 2007.
5. D. Koutsoyiannis, H. Yao, and A. Georgakakos, Medium-range flow prediction for the Nile: a comparison of stochastic and deterministic methods, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53 (1), 142–164, doi:10.1623/hysj.53.1.142, 2008.
6. D. Koutsoyiannis, C. Makropoulos, A. Langousis, S. Baki, A. Efstratiadis, A. Christofides, G. Karavokiros, and N. Mamassis, Climate, hydrology, energy, water: recognizing uncertainty and seeking sustainability, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 13, 247–257, doi:10.5194/hess-13-247-2009, 2009.
7. D. Koutsoyiannis, A random walk on water, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14, 585–601, doi:10.5194/hess-14-585-2010, 2010.
8. D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Langousis, Precipitation, Treatise on Water Science, edited by P. Wilderer and S. Uhlenbrook, 2, 27–78, Academic Press, Oxford, 2011.
9. D. Koutsoyiannis, Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics and uncertainty, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 47 (3), 481–495, doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00543.x, 2011.
10. D. Koutsoyiannis, Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics as a result of extremal entropy production, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 390 (8), 1424–1432, doi:10.1016/j.physa.2010.12.035, 2011.
11. A. Christofides, and D. Koutsoyiannis, God and the arrogant species: Contrasting nature's intrinsic uncertainty with our climate simulating supercomputers, 104th Annual Conference & Exhibition, Orlando, Florida, Air & Waste Management Association, 2011.
12. D. Koutsoyiannis, Reconciling hydrology with engineering (Openning lecture), IDRA 2012 – XXXIII Conference of Hydraulics and Hydraulic Engineering, Brescia, Italy, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.2279.7046, 2012.
13. A. Montanari, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A blueprint for process-based modeling of uncertain hydrological systems, Water Resources Research, 48, W09555, doi:10.1029/2011WR011412, 2012.
14. Y. Markonis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Climatic variability over time scales spanning nine orders of magnitude: Connecting Milankovitch cycles with Hurst–Kolmogorov dynamics, Surveys in Geophysics, 34 (2), 181–207, doi:10.1007/s10712-012-9208-9, 2013.
15. D. Koutsoyiannis, Encolpion of stochastics: Fundamentals of stochastic processes, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.10956.82564, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 2013.
16. A. Montanari, G. Young, H. H. G. Savenije, D. Hughes, T. Wagener, L. L. Ren, D. Koutsoyiannis, C. Cudennec, E. Toth, S. Grimaldi, G. Blöschl, M. Sivapalan, K. Beven, H. Gupta, M. Hipsey, B. Schaefli, B. Arheimer, E. Boegh, S. J. Schymanski, G. Di Baldassarre, B. Yu, P. Hubert, Y. Huang, A. Schumann, D. Post, V. Srinivasan, C. Harman, S. Thompson, M. Rogger, A. Viglione, H. McMillan, G. Characklis, Z. Pang, and V. Belyaev, “Panta Rhei – Everything Flows”, Change in Hydrology and Society – The IAHS Scientific Decade 2013-2022, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (6), 1256–1275, doi:10.1080/02626667.2013.809088, 2013.

Our works that reference this work:

1. A. Montanari, G. Young, H. H. G. Savenije, D. Hughes, T. Wagener, L. L. Ren, D. Koutsoyiannis, C. Cudennec, E. Toth, S. Grimaldi, G. Blöschl, M. Sivapalan, K. Beven, H. Gupta, M. Hipsey, B. Schaefli, B. Arheimer, E. Boegh, S. J. Schymanski, G. Di Baldassarre, B. Yu, P. Hubert, Y. Huang, A. Schumann, D. Post, V. Srinivasan, C. Harman, S. Thompson, M. Rogger, A. Viglione, H. McMillan, G. Characklis, Z. Pang, and V. Belyaev, “Panta Rhei – Everything Flows”, Change in Hydrology and Society – The IAHS Scientific Decade 2013-2022, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (6), 1256–1275, doi:10.1080/02626667.2013.809088, 2013.
2. D. Koutsoyiannis, Reconciling hydrology with engineering, Hydrology Research, 45 (1), 2–22, doi:10.2166/nh.2013.092, 2014.
3. D. Koutsoyiannis, Social vs. scientific perception of change in hydrology and climate — Reply to the Discussion by Arie Ben-Zvi on the Opinion Paper “Hydrology and Change”, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (8), 1625–1626, doi:10.1080/02626667.2014.935382, 2014.
4. C. Pappas, S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A quick gap-filling of missing hydrometeorological data, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 119 (15), 9290–9300, doi:10.1002/2014JD021633, 2014.
5. S. Ceola, A. Montanari, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Toward a theoretical framework for integrated modeling of hydrological change, WIREs Water, 1 (5), 427–438, doi:10.1002/wat2.1038, 2014.
6. A. Montanari, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Modeling and mitigating natural hazards: Stationarity is immortal!, Water Resources Research, 50 (12), 9748–9756, doi:10.1002/2014WR016092, 2014.
7. A. Sikorska, A. Montanari, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Estimating the uncertainty of hydrological predictions through data-driven resampling techniques, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering (ASCE), 20 (1), doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000926, 2015.
8. A. Efstratiadis, I. Nalbantis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrological modelling of temporally-varying catchments: Facets of change and the value of information, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 60 (7-8), 1438–1461, doi:10.1080/02626667.2014.982123, 2015.
9. D. Koutsoyiannis, Generic and parsimonious stochastic modelling for hydrology and beyond, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61 (2), 225–244, doi:10.1080/02626667.2015.1016950, 2016.
10. P. Dimitriadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and P. Papanicolaou, Stochastic similarities between the microscale of turbulence and hydrometeorological processes, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61 (9), 1623–1640, doi:10.1080/02626667.2015.1085988, 2016.
11. P.E. O’Connell, D. Koutsoyiannis, H. F. Lins, Y. Markonis, A. Montanari, and T.A. Cohn, The scientific legacy of Harold Edwin Hurst (1880 – 1978), Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61 (9), 1571–1590, doi:10.1080/02626667.2015.1125998, 2016.

Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate

Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):

1. Kundzewicz, Z.W., S. Kanae, S. I. Seneviratne, J. Handmer, N. Nicholls, P. Peduzzi, R. Mechler, L. M. Bouweri, N. Arnell, K. Mach, R. Muir-Wood, G. R. Brakenridge, W. Kron, G. Benito, Y. Honda, K. Takahashi, and B. Sherstyukov, Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2014.
2. Graf, R., Reference statistics for the structure of measurement series of groundwater levels (Wielkopolska Lowland - western Poland), Hydrological Sciences Journal, 10.1080/02626667.2014.905689, 2014.
3. Ben-Zvi, A., Discussion of the Opinion Paper “Hydrology and change” by Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 10.1080/02626667.2014.935381, 2014.
4. #Montanari, A., S. Ceola and E. Baratti, Panta Rhei: An evolving scientific decade with a focus on water systems, IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports, 364, 279-284, 2014.
5. #Detzel, D. H. M., and M. R. M. Mine, Trends in hydrological series: methods and application, 11th International Conference on Hydroscience & Engineering, Hamburg, Germany, 2014.
6. Thirel, G., V. Andréassian, and C. Perrin, On the need to test hydrological models under changing conditions, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 60(7-8), 1165-1173, doi:10.1080/02626667.2015.1050027, 2015.
7. Thirel, G., V. Andréassian, C. Perrin, J.-N. Audouy, L. Berthet, P. Edwards, N. Folton, C. Furusho, A. Kuentz, J. Lerat, G. Lindström, E. Martin, T. Mathevet, R. Merz, J. Parajka, D. Ruelland, and J. Vaze, Hydrology under change: an evaluation protocol to investigate how hydrological models deal with changing catchments, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 60(7-8), 1184-1199, doi:10.1080/02626667.2014.9672482014, 2015.
8. Cudennec, C., and A. De Lavenne, Editorial: Hydrogeomorphology - A long-term scientific interface, Hydrology Research, 46 (2), 175-179, 2015.
9. Kundzewicz, Z.W. Farewell, HSJ!—address from the retiring editor, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 10.1080/02626667.2015.1058627, 2015.
10. Bayazit, M., Nonstationarity of hydrological records and recent trends in trend analysis: a state-of-the-art review, Environmental Processes, 2 (3), 527-542, 10.1007/s40710-015-0081-7, 2015.
11. Di Baldassarre, G., L. Brandimarte, and K. Beven, The seventh facet of uncertainty: wrong assumptions, unknowns and surprises in the dynamics of human-water systems, Hydrological Sciences Journal, doi:10.1080/02626667.2015.1091460, 2015.
12. McMillan, H., A. Montanari, C. Cudennec, H. Savenjie, H. Kreibich, T. Krüger, J. Liu, A. Meija, A. van Loon, H. Aksoy, G. Di Baldassarre, Y. Huang, D. Mazvimavi, M. Rogger, S. Bellie, T. Bibikova, A. Castellarin, Y. Chen, D. Finger, A. Gelfan, D. Hannah, A. Hoekstra, H. Li, S. Maskey, T. Mathevet, A. Mijic, A. Pedrozo Acuña, M. J. Polo, V. Rosales, P. Smith, A. Viglione, V. Srinivasan, E. Toth, R. van Nooyen, and J. Xia, Panta Rhei 2013-2015: Global perspectives on hydrology, society and change, Hydrological Sciences Journal, doi:10.1080/02626667.2016.1159308, 2016.
13. Biao, I. E., A. E. Alamou, and A. Afouda, Improving rainfall–runoff modelling through the control of uncertainties under increasing climate variability in the Ouémé River basin (Benin, West Africa), Hydrological Sciences Journal, doi:10.1080/02626667.2016.1164315, 2016.

Tagged under: Climate stochastics, Determinism vs. stochasticity, Entropy, Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics, Most recent works, Uncertainty