Assistant Professor, Civil Engineer, MSc., Dr. Engineer
A.Efstratiadis@itia.ntua.gr
+30-2107722861
Prediction of water consumption in EYDAP's areas of activity under climate change and social & economic alterations
Duration: September 2024–April 2025
Budget: €50 000
Commissioned by: EYDAP R&D
Project director: A. Efstratiadis
The project aims to predict (by means of scenarios) the water consumption in the areas of activity of EYDAP SA, by taking into account climatic, social, demographic and economic changes. In this context, historical water consumption data, at multiple scales, and the variables that affect it will be collected and analyzed, through Artificial Intelligence tools. Key component will be a simulation model of the behavior of water consumers in the areas supplied by EYDAP SA. This will be calibrated on the basis historical data and used to predict future demands, driven by various scenarios of their predictors (climatic variables, socioeconomic conditions, development plans, etc.). The time horizon of projections will be at least until the year 2045. The outcomes of the project will support the company in planning new projects and taking suitable measures to deal with potentially increased water demands, compared to the current levels.
Analysis of dam break and flood wave channeling of a pumped storage project at the "reservoir" location YHS Sfikias Bravas
Duration: September 2024–November 2024
Budget: €25 000
Commissioned by: Public Power Corporation
Project director: A. Efstratiadis
The purpose of the research project is to provide scientific consultant services to DEI AE, which relate to the analysis of dam break phenomena and flood wave routing, for the pumped storage system under study at the location "Bravas" (about 0.6 km southeast of the Sfikia hydroelectric project). The construction of a dam is planned at the location in question, in order to form the upper reservoir of the system, while the artificial lake of Sfikia will be used as the lower reservoir. The construction of a production-pumping station on the SE bank of the reservoir (next to the "Bravas" site) is also planned, as well as the construction of an underground water transport system, which will connect the upper reservoir with the production-pumping station. The research object includes the modeling of the break of the dam (it concerns the main dam but also the smaller neck dam, in the SE), the hydrodynamic simulation of the passage of the flood wave, and the investigation of the effects they will cause on the existing lower reservoir of Sfikia, the flood wave and the materials that will be carried away by the collapse of the dam. The deliverable of the project will be the technical study and the required accompanying plans.
Technical support services in the context of the establishment of the Islands' Decarbonization Fund
Duration: July 2024–September 2024
Budget: €30 000
Commissioned by: Natural Environment and Climate Change Agency
Project director: A. Efstratiadis
Principal investigator: C. Makropoulos
The program concerns the development of a specialized technical study for the technical and financial analysis and the assessment of the socio‐economic and environmental benefits of implementing multi‐purpose dams/reservoirs with hydroelectric power generation (e.g., water supply, irrigation, flood protection). The results of the study will be used to formulate the project fiche for the subcategory of projects "Multi‐purpose dams/reservoirs" of the Islands" Decarbonization Fund (IDF).
Development of computational infrastructure for the hydrodynamic simulation of the hydrosystem downstream of Asomata Dam
Duration: February 2024–May 2024
Budget: €29 500
Commissioned by: Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering
Contractor: Hydroelectric Power Plants Operation Department
Project director: A. Efstratiadis
Principal investigator: N. Mamassis
The project aims at the development of a suitable computational infrastructure for the hydrodynamic simulation of the hydrosystem downstream of Asomata Dam, in Aliakmonas River. This will be applied for various outflow scenarios through the hydroelectric plant and the dam spillway, which will be the upstream boundary of the study area, extending over about 2800 km2, of which approximately 2200 km2 are occupied by the catchment of the so-called Peripheral Trench (T66). The final product will be a computer system for one-dimensional analysis, in a HEC-RAS environment, and the associated data infrastructure, as backgrounds for the hydrodynamic simulation and, eventually, flood risk assessment across the vulnerable areas downstream of Asomata dam.
Modernization of the management of the water supply system of Athens - Update
Duration: May 2019–April 2024
Budget: €120 000
Commissioned by: Water Supply and Sewerage Company of Athens
Contractor: Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering
Project director: A. Efstratiadis
Principal investigator: I. Papakonstantis
The project aims to revise, upgrade and expand the software tools that have been developed in the context of previous research programs, and the overall support of the Water Supply Directorate of EYDAP S.A. in topics associated with the management of the water resource system of Athens. In this vein we are planning to employ advanced hydrological and water management analyses, improve the existing computational systems and associated methodologies for stochastic simulation and optimization, the elaboration of Master Plans, on annual basis or less, in case of emergency, and the theoretical investigation with respect to the development of a decision support tool for the hydraulic propagation of water flows across the hydrosystem, to be tested in part of Mornos’ channel.
Open Hydrosystem Information Network (OpenHi.net)
Duration: January 2018–December 2020
Budget: €320 000
Commissioned by: Special Secretary of ERDF & CF
Contractor: Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering
Collaborators:
Project director: N. Mamassis
Principal investigator: A. Efstratiadis
OpenHi.net is sub-project of the national research infrastructure “Hellenic Integrated Marine and Inland Water Resources Observing, Forecasting and Offshore Technology Systems” (HIMIOFoTS). Its objective is the design of an integrated e-infrastructure for collection, management and dissemination of hydrological and environmental information for the surface water resources of Greece, and the coordination of sub-projects that are involved in the development and initial operation of the system. The sub-project comprises the recording and evaluation of the existing infrastructures of the country (monitoring networks, databases), the analysis of specifications and assessment of the information system, the organization and processing of geographical data with respect to surface water bodies and hydrosystems of Greece, and their implementation within OpenHi. The system design will foresee the incorporation of all related infrastructure of the country, in a forthcoming phase, in order to provide free access to all hydrological, environmental and geographical data of surface water resources of Greece.
Project web-page: https://openhi.net/
Nonlinear methods in multicriteria water resource optimization problems
Duration: November 2002–December 2007
Budget: €33 274
Commissioned by: Ministry of National Education
Contractor: National Technical University of Athens
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: A. Efstratiadis
Programme: Ηράκλειτος
DEUCALION – Assessment of flood flows in Greece under conditions of hydroclimatic variability: Development of physically-established conceptual-probabilistic framework and computational tools
Duration: March 2011–March 2014
Budget: €145 000
Commissioned by: General Secretariat of Research and Technology
Contractors:
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: N. Mamassis
Programme: ΕΣΠΑ "Συνεργασία"
The project aims to develop a set of physically-based methodologies associated with modelling and forecasting of extreme rainfall events and the subsequent flood events, and adapted to the peculiarities of the hydroclimatic and geomorphological conditions of Greece. It includes the implementation of a set of research river basins that comprises a number of gauged basins in Greece and Cyprus with reliable measurements of adequate length, as well as three new experimental basins (with their sub-basins), which will be equipped with the necessary infrastructure. From the field data analysis (hydrological, meteorological, geographical) physically-established regional models will be devoloped for the estimation of characteristic hydrological design quantities, along with hydrological-hydraulic models, which will be integrated within an operational system for hydrometeorological forecasting. A framework of design criteria and methodologies (in a draft form for discussion) will be prepared for the elaboration of hydrological studies for flood-prevention works.
Project web-page: http://deucalionproject.itia.ntua.gr/
EU COST Action ES0901: European procedures for flood frequency estimation (FloodFreq)
Duration: February 2010–December 2013
Project director: T. Kjeldsen
The main objective is to undertake a pan-European comparison and evaluation of methods for flood frequency estimation under the various climatologic and geographic conditions found in Europe, and different levels of data availability. A scientific framework for assessing the ability of these methods to predict the impact of environmental change (climate change, land-use and river engineering works) on future flood frequency characteristics (flood occurrence and magnitude) will be developed and tested. The availability of such procedures is crucial for the formulation of robust flood risk management strategies as required by the Directive of the European Parliament on the assessment and management of floods. The outputs from FloodFreq will be disseminated to: academics, professionals involved in operational flood risk management from private and public institutions, and relevant policy makers from national and international regulatory bodies. This Action enables cooperation between researchers involved in nationally funded research projects to, thereby enabling testing of methods free from the constraints of administrative boundaries, and allowing a more efficient use of European flood research funding.
Project web-page: http://www.costfloodfreq.eu/
Maintenance, upgrading and extension of the Decision Support System for the management of the Athens water resource system
Duration: October 2008–November 2011
Budget: €72 000
Project director: N. Mamassis
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
This research project includes the maintenance, upgrading and extension of the Decision Support System that developed by NTUA for EYDAP in the framework of the research project “Updating of the supervision and management of the water resources’ system for the water supply of the Athens’ metropolitan area”. The project is consisted of the following parts: (a) Upgrading of the Data Base, (b)Upgrading and extension of hydrometeorological network, (c) upgrading of the hydrometeorological data process software, (d) upgrading and extension of the Hydronomeas software, (e) hydrological data analysis and (f) support to the preparation of the annual master plans
Development of Database and software applications in a web platform for the "National Databank for Hydrological and Meteorological Information"
Duration: December 2009–May 2011
Budget: €140 000
Commissioned by: Hydroscope Systems Consortium
Contractor: Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering
Project director: N. Mamassis
Principal investigator: N. Mamassis
The Ministry of Environment, Physical Planning & Public Works assigned to a consortium of consultancy companies the Project "Development of a new software platform for the management and operation of the National Databank for Hydrologic and Meteorological Information - 3rd Phase within a GIS environment and relevant dissemination actions". In the framework of the specific project a research team of NTUA undertakes a part as subcontractor. NTUA delivers methodologies for further development of the databases and applications of the Databank and their migration into a web platform (including the experimental node openmeteo.org for free data storage for the public). Specifically, using the knowhow that has been developed in the past by Research Teams from the Department of Water Resources of the School of Civil Engineering a database system and software applications (included hydrological models) are created fully adapted for operation over the Internet. NTUA's contribution is primarily on the design of the new system and the hydrological and geographical database the development of distibuted hydological models, the adaptation of the system to the WFD 2000/60/EC and on supporting dissemination activities. Finally NTUA will participate in the technical support and pilot operation of the project after its delivery from the consortium to the Ministry.
More information is available at http://www.hydroscope.gr/.
OpenMI Life
Duration: January 2006–December 2010
The project's rationale lies in the Water Framework Directive,which demands an integrated approach to water management. This requires an ability to predict how catchment processes will interact. In most contexts, it is not feasible to build a single predictive model that adequately represents all the processes; therefore, a means of linking models of individual processes is required.The FP5 HarmonIT project's innovative and acclaimed solution, the Open Modelling Interface and Environment (OpenMI) met this need by simplifying the linking of hydrology related models.Its establishment will support and assist the strategic planning and integrated catchment management.
Cost of raw water of the water supply of Athens
Duration: June 2010–December 2010
Budget: €110 000
Commissioned by: Fixed Assets Company EYDAP
Contractor: Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering
Project director: C. Makropoulos
Observations, Analysis and Modeling of Lightning Activity in Thunderstorms, for Use in Short Term Forecasting of Flash Floods
Duration: October 2006–September 2009
Commissioned by: DGXII / FP6-SUSTDEV-2005-3.II.1.2
Contractor: National Observatory of Athens
Project director: K. Lagouvardos
Flood risk estimation and forecast using hydrological models and probabilistic methods
Duration: February 2007–August 2008
Budget: €15 000
Commissioned by: National Technical University of Athens
Contractor: Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering
Collaborators: Hydrologic Research Center
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: S.M. Papalexiou
Programme: Πρόγραμμα Βασικής Έρευνας ΕΜΠ "Κωνσταντίνος Καραθεοδωρή"
The objective of this project is the development of an integrated framework for the estimation and forecast of flood risk using stochastic, hydrological and hydraulics methods. The study area is the Boeticos Kephisos river basin. The project includes analysis of severe storm episodes in the basin, the understanding of mechanisms of flood generation in this karstic basin and the estimation of flood risk in characteristic sites of the hydrosystem.
Support on the compilation of the national programme for water resources management and preservation
Duration: February 2007–May 2007
Budget: €45 000
Commissioned by: Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works
Contractor: Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: A. Andreadakis
This project updates and expands a previous research project (Classification of quantitative and qualitative parameters of water resources in water districts of Greece), which has been commissioned by the Ministry of Development and conducted by the same team of NTUA in co-operation with the Ministry of Development, IGME, and KEPE.
The project includes defining the methodology, analyzing the water resources in the 14 water districts, quantity and quality and the relations between them, describing the existing administrative and development frameworks for water resources management and protection presenting the national, peripheral and sectoral water-related policies, and proposing an approach to a water resource management and protection programme (conclusions, problems, solutions, and proposals for projects and measures).
Investigation of management scenarios for the Smokovo reservoir
Duration: November 2005–December 2006
Budget: €60 000
Commissioned by: Special Directorate for the Management of Corporate Programs of Thessaly
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: N. Mamassis
Programme: Επιχειρησιακά Σχέδια Διαχείρισης Δικτύων Σμοκόβου
Integrated Management of Hydrosystems in Conjunction with an Advanced Information System (ODYSSEUS)
Duration: July 2003–June 2006
Budget: €779 656
Commissioned by: General Secretariat of Research and Technology
Contractor: NAMA
Collaborators:
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: A. Andreadakis
Programme: ΕΠΑΝ, Φυσικό Περιβάλλον και Βιώσιμη Ανάπτυξη
The project aims at providing support to decision-making processes within the direction of integrated management of water resource systems at a variety of scales. Several methodologies and computing tools are developed, which are incorporated into an integrated information system. The main deliverable is an operational software package of general use, which is evaluated and tested on two pilot case studies, concerning hydrosystems in Greece with varying characteristics (Karditsa, Dodecanesus). The end-product of the project is a software system for simulation and optimisation of hydrosystem operation, as well as a series of separate software applications for solving specific problems, aiming at producing input data to the central system or post-processing of the results. The project includes eleven work packages, eight for basic research, two for industrial research and one for the pilot applications.
Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens
Duration: March 1999–December 2003
Commissioned by: Water Supply and Sewerage Company of Athens
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
Due to the dry climate of the surrounding region, Athens has suffered from frequent water shortages during its long history but now has acquired a reliable system for water supply. This extensive and complex water resource system extends over an area of around 4000 km2 and includes surface water and groundwater resources. It incorporates four reservoirs, 350 km of main aqueducts, 15 pumping stations and more than 100 boreholes. The water resource system also supplies secondary uses such as irrigation and water supply of nearby towns. The Athens Water Supply and Sewerage Company (EYDAP) that runs the system commissioned this project, which comprises: (a) development of a geographical information system for the representation and supervision of the external water supply system; (b) development of a measurement system for the water resources of Athens; (c) development of a system for the estimation and prediction of the water resource system of Athens utilising stochastic models; (d) development of a decision support system for the integrated management of water resource system of Athens using simulation-optimisation methodologies; and (e) cooperation and transfer of knowledge between NTUA and EYDAP.
Products: 17 reports; 14 publications
Investigation of scenarios for the management and protection of the quality of the Plastiras Lake
Duration: May 2001–January 2002
Commissioned by:
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: K. Hadjibiros
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
To protect the Plastiras Lake, a high quality of the natural landscape and a satisfactory water quality must be ensured, the conflicting water uses and demands must be arranged and effective water management practices must be established. To this aim, the hydrology of the catchment is investigated, the geographical, meteorological and water power data are collected and processed, the water balance is studied and a stochastic model is constructed to support the study of alternative management scenarios. In addition, an analysis of the natural landscape is performed and the negative influences (e.g. dead tries) are determined and quantified using GIS. Furthermore, the water quality parameters are evaluated, the water quality state is assessed, the quantitative targets are determined, the pollution sources are identified and measures for the reduction of pollution are studied using a hydrodynamic model with emphasis on the nutrient status. Based on the results of these analyses, scenarios of safe water release are suggested.
Evaluation of Management of the Water Resources of Sterea Hellas - Phase 3
Duration: November 1996–December 2000
Commissioned by: Directorate of Water Supply and Sewage
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
The main objectives of the research project are the evaluation and management of the water resources, both surface and subsurface, of the Sterea Hellas region, and the systematic study of all parameters related to the rational development and management of the water resources of this region. Another objective of the project, considered as an infrastructure work, is the development of software for the hydrological, hydrogeological and operational simulation of the combined catchments of the study area. The development of the software and, at the same time, the development of methodologies suitable for the Greek conditions will assist in decision-making concerning the water resources management of Sterea Hellas and of other Greek regions. The project also aims at the improving of the cooperation between the National Technical University of Athens and the Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works. This is considered as a necessary condition for the continuous updating of the project results as well as for the rational analysis of the water resource problems of the Sterea Hellas region. The specific themes of Phase 3 are: (a) the completion of the information systems of the previous phases, which concerned hydrological and hydrogeological information, by including two additional levels of information related to the water uses and the water resources development works; (b) the development of methodologies for optimising the hydrosystems operation and the construction of integrated simulation and optimisation models for the two major hydrosystems of the study area (Western and Eastern Sterea Hellas); and (c) the integration of all computer systems (databases, geographical information systems, application models) into a unified system with collaborating components.
Σχέδιο Διαχείρισης Κινδύνων Πλημμύρας των Λεκανών Απορροής Ποταμών του Υδατικού Διαμερίσματος Ανατολικής Πελοποννήσου (GR03)
Commissioned by: Specific Secreteriat of Water
Contractor: ADT-OMEGA
Consultancy Services for Conceptual Design, Preparation of Bidding Documents, Assistance during the Selection of Contractor & Monitoring/Supervision of Construction, Instalation, Operation & Maintainance for Traffic Control (CTC) for Greater Gaborone City
Contractor: Erasmos Consulting Engineering
Σχέδιο Διαχείρισης Κινδύνων Πλημμύρας των Λεκανών Απορροής Ποταμών του Υδατικού Διαμερίσματος Κρήτης (GR13)
Commissioned by: Specific Secreteriat of Water
Contractor: ADT-OMEGA
Παροχή Συμβουλευτικών Υπηρεσιών για την Κατάρτιση του 2ου Σχεδίου Διαχείρισης Λεκάνης Απορροής Ποταμού της Κύπρου για την Εφαρμογή της Οδηγίας 2000/60/ΕΚ και για την Κατάρτιση του Σχεδίου Διαχείρισης Κινδύνων Πλημμύρας για την Εφαρμογή της Οδηγίας 2007/60
Commissioned by: Depatment of Water Development of Cyprus
Contractor: LDK & ECOS
Σχέδιο Διαχείρισης Κινδύνων Πλημμύρας των Λεκανών Απορροής Ποταμών του Υδατικού Διαμερίσματος Δυτικής Πελοποννήσου (GR01)
Commissioned by: Specific Secreteriat of Water
Contractor: ADT-OMEGA
Έργα Ορεινής Υδρονομίας Ρεμάτων Ορεινών Λεκανών Απορροής Αλμωπίας
Σχέδιο Διαχείρισης Κινδύνων Πλημμύρας των Λεκανών Απορροής Ποταμών του Υδατικού Διαμερίσματος Βόρειας Πελοποννήσου (GR02)
Commissioned by: Specific Secreteriat of Water
Contractor: ADT-OMEGA
Pleriminary study of Almopaios dam
Duration: July 2014–July 2014
Commissioned by: Roikos Consulting Engeineers S.A.
Hydrological study of the ski center area of Parnassos
Duration: June 2010–July 2010
Contractor: Lazaridis and Collaborators
Water supply works from Gadouras dam - Phase B
Duration: July 2009–July 2010
Commissioned by: Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works
Contractor: Ydroexigiantiki
Specific Technical Study for the Ecological Flow from the Dam of Stratos
Duration: January 2009–June 2009
Commissioned by: Public Power Corporation
Contractor: ECOS Consultants S.A.
Μελέτες Διερεύνησης Προβλημάτων Άρδευσης και Δυνατότητας Κατασκευής Ταμιευτήρων Νομού Βοιωτίας
Duration: January 2006–December 2006
Commissioned by: Ministry of Agricultural Development and Food
Contractor: ETME- Antoniou Peppas and Co.
Water resource management of the Integrated Tourist Development Area in Messenia
Duration: January 2003–December 2005
Commissioned by: TEMES - Tourist Enterprises of Messinia
Contractor: D. Argyropoulos
Hydrological and hydraulic study for the flood protection of the new railway in the region of Sperhios river
Duration: October 2002–January 2003
Budget: €90 000
Commissioned by: ERGA OSE
Contractor: D. Soteropoulos
Collaborators: D. Koutsoyiannis
Engineering consultant for the project "Water supply of Heracleio and Agios Nicolaos from the Aposelemis dam"
Duration: October 2000–December 2002
Budget: €1 782 000
Commissioned by: Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works
Contractor: Aposelemis Joint Venture
Preliminary Water Supply Study of the Thermoelectric Livadia Power Plant
Duration: January 2001–December 2001
Contractor: Ypologistiki Michaniki
Complementary study of environmental impacts from the diversion of Acheloos to Thessaly
Duration: December 2000–February 2001
Commissioned by: Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works
Contractor: Ydroexigiantiki
Collaborators: D. Koutsoyiannis
G.-K. Sakki, A. Castelletti, C. Makropoulos, and A. Efstratiadis, Unwrapping the triptych of climatic, social and energy-market uncertainties in the operation of multipurpose hydropower reservoirs, Journal of Hydrology, 628, 132416, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132416, 2025.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2485/1/documents/Unwrapping_the_triptych_of_climatic_social_and_energy-market.pdf (5612 KB)
A. Zisos, D. Chatzopoulos, and A. Efstratiadis, The concept of spatial reliability across renewable energy systems—An application to decentralized solar PV energy, Energies, 17 (23), 5900, doi:10.3390/en17235900, 2024.
Decentralized planning of renewable energy systems aims to address the substantial spatiotemporal variability, and thus uncertainty, associated with their underlying hydrometeorological processes. For instance, solar photovoltaic (PV) energy is driven by two processes, namely solar radiation, which is the main input, and ambient temperature, with the latter affecting the panel efficiency under specific weather conditions. The objective of this work is to provide a comprehensive investigation of the role of spatial scale by assessing the theoretical advantages of the distributed production of renewable energy sources over those of centralized, in probabilistic means. Acknowledging previous efforts for the optimal spatial distribution of different power units across predetermined locations, often employing the Modern Portfolio Theory framework, this work introduces the generic concept of spatial reliability and highlights its practical use as a strategic planning tool for assessing the benefits of distributed generation at a large scale. The methodology is verified by considering the case of Greece, where PV solar energy is one of the predominant renewables. Following a Monte Carlo approach, thus randomly distributing PVs across well-distributed locations, scaling laws are derived in terms of the spatial probability of capacity factors.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2506/1/documents/energies-17-05900.pdf (2013 KB)
V. Thomopoulou, T. Iliopoulou, P. Kossieris, G. Bariamis, I. Tsoukalas, A. Efstratiadis, and C. Makropoulos, A comprehensive approach to building a continuous hydrologic model with soil moisture accounting using Earth Observation data, Hydrology Research, nh2024190, doi:10.2166/nh.2024.190, 2024.
In recent years, both availability and interest in Earth Observations (EO) have increased due to their ability to provide information with extensive spatial coverage, which is valuable for data-scarce regions. This study provides a roadmap to exploit EO/satellite data (EO-based model) for continuous hydrological simulation using the Hydrologic Engineering Center–Hydrologic Modelling System model with a soil moisture accounting (SMA) component. As a case study, we consider the Boeotikos Kephisos River basin, in Greece. The SMA component is calibrated using the HiHydroSoils dataset, to map its parameters to the regionally varying soil hydraulic properties and a comparison is made to an alternative parameterization, following the standard literature approach (literature-based model). The effectiveness of satellite data in enhancing model performance is further assessed, by comparing three different satellite precipitation datasets, as model drivers, and by using satellite-based soil moisture for model initialization. The discussion extends to the potential for integration of EO/satellite data at the operational level, by simulating a significant precipitation event. Yet, the most promising result pertains to the opportunity to exploit satellite-derived estimates of soil hydraulic properties to base the calibration of the data-intensive SMA scheme, with the EO-based model significantly outperforming the literature-based model parameterization.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2489/1/documents/nh2024190_XihaHXB.pdf (1228 KB)
E. Dimitriou, A. Efstratiadis, I. Zotou, A. Papadopoulos, T. Iliopoulou, G.-K. Sakki, K. Mazi, E. Rozos, A. Koukouvinos, A. D. Koussis, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Post-analysis of Daniel extreme flood event in Thessaly, Central Greece: Practical lessons and the value of state-of-the-art water monitoring networks, Water, 16 (7), 980, doi:10.3390/w16070980, 2024.
Storm Daniel initiated on 3 September 2023, over the Northeastern Aegean Sea, causing extreme rainfall levels for the following four days, reaching an average of about 360 mm over the Peneus basin, in Thessaly, Central Greece. This event led to extensive floods, with 17 human lives lost and devastating environmental and economic impacts. The automatic water-monitoring network of the HIMIOFoTS National Research Infrastructure captured the evolution of the phenomenon and the relevant hydrometeorological (rainfall, water stage, and discharge) measurements were used to analyse the event’s characteristics. The results indicate that the average rainfall’s return period was up to 150 years, the peak flow close to the river mouth reached approximately 1950 m3/s, and the outflow volume of water to the sea was 1670 hm3. The analysis of the observed hydrographs across Peneus also provided useful lessons from the flood-engineering perspective regarding key modelling assumptions and the role of upstream retentions. Therefore, extending and supporting the operation of the HIMIOFoTS infrastructure is crucial to assist responsible authorities and local communities in reducing potential damages and increasing the socioeconomic resilience to natural disasters, as well as to improve the existing knowledge with respect to extreme flood-simulation approaches.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2451/1/documents/water-16-00980.pdf (9512 KB)
See also: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/16/7/980
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Leivadiotis, E., S. Kohnová, and A. Psilovikos, Evaluating flood events caused by Medicane "Daniel" in the Thessaly District (Central Greece) using remote sensing data and techniques, Acta Hydrologica Slovaca, 25(1), 115-126, doi:10.31577/ahs-2024-0025.01.0013, 2024. |
| 2. | Mavroulis, S., M. Mavrouli, E. Lekkas, and A. Tsakris, Impact of the September 2023 storm Daniel and subsequent flooding in Thessaly (Greece) on the natural and built environment and on infectious disease emergence, Environments, 11(8), 163, doi:10.3390/environments11080163, 2024. |
| 3. | Papadopoulou, E. E., and A. Papakonstantinou, Combining drone LiDAR and virtual reality geovisualizations towards a cartographic approach to visualize flooding scenarios, Drones, 8(8), 398, doi:10.3390/drones8080398, 2024. |
| 4. | Stamos, I., and M. Diakakis, Mapping flood impacts on mortality at European territories of the Mediterranean region within the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) framework, Water, 16(17), 2470, doi:10.3390/w16172470, 2024. |
| 5. | #Flaounas, E., S. Dafis, S. Davolio, D. Faranda, C. Ferrarin, K. Hartmuth, A. Hochman, A. Koutroulis, S. Khodayar, M. M. Miglietta, F. Pantillon, P. Patlakas, M. Sprenger, and I. Thurnherr, Dynamics, predictability, impacts, and climate change considerations of the catastrophic Mediterranean Storm Daniel (2023), EGUsphere, doi:10.5194/egusphere-2024-2809, 2024. |
| 6. | Kolios, S., and N. Papavasileiou, Daily rainfall patterns during storm “Daniel” based on different satellite data, Atmosphere, 15(11), 1277, doi:10.3390/atmos15111277, 2024. |
| 7. | Katsanos, D., A. Retalis, J. Kalogiros, B. E. Psiloglou, N. Roukounakis, and M. Anagnostou, Performance evaluation of satellite precipitation products during extreme events — The case of the Medicane Daniel in Thessaly, Greece, Remote Sensing, 16(22), 4216, doi:10.3390/rs16224216, 2024. |
| 8. | Tupas, M. E., F. Roth, B. Bauer-Marschallinger, and W. Wagner, Assessment of time-series-derived no-flood references for sar-based Bayesian flood mapping, GIScience & Remote Sensing, 61(1), 1-23, doi:10.1080/15481603.2024.2427304, 2024. |
| 9. | Antoniadis, K., I. Z. Gitas, N. Georgopoulos, D. Stavrakoudis, and D. Hadjimitsis, Investigating the potential of ICEYE-SAR data in storm damage detection in a coniferous forest with rugged terrain, International Journal of Remote Sensing, doi:10.1080/01431161.2024.2433761, 2024. |
E. Boucoyiannis, P. Kossieris, V. Bellos, A. Efstratiadis, and C. Makropoulos, A grey-box approach in the optimization of regulation structures used in urban-water conveyance systems, Urban Water Journal, 21 (4), 483–497, doi:10.1080/1573062X.2024.2312510, 2024.
This paper presents a holistic approach to address the challenges associated with deploying laboratory-derived hydraulic models in real operational conditions within Urban Water Systems (UWS). The underlying methods and tools are tested and validated using real-world data from the conveyance system serving the city of Athens, Greece. Initially, a novel data repair mechanism is developed, to rectify inconsistencies in time series. Subsequently, algorithmic techniques are applied to identify the most suitable datasets for calibration purposes. Furthermore, a grey-box procedure is developed to adjust key hydraulic modelling parameters, following a modular calibration procedure and aligning them with the specific characteristics of the UWS under study. The findings of this study provide valuable insights for effectively adapting and implementing laboratory-derived hydraulic models in real-world UWS scenarios, enabling better decision-making and management strategies for complex hydro-systems under challenging operational conditions.
A. Zisos, G.-K. Sakki, and A. Efstratiadis, Mixing renewable energy with pumped hydropower storage: Design optimization under uncertainty and other challenges, Sustainability, 15 (18), 13313, doi:10.3390/su151813313, 2023.
Hybrid renewable energy systems (HRES), complemented by pumped hydropower storage (PHS), have become increasingly popular amidst the increase of renewable energy penetration. This configuration is even more prosperous in remote regions that are typically not connected to the mainland power grid, where the energy independence challenge intensifies. This research focuses on the design of such systems, from the perspective of establishing an optimal mix of renewable sources that takes advantage of their complementarities and synergies, combined with the versatility of PHS. However, this design is subject to substantial complexities, due to the multiple objectives and constraints to fulfill, on the one hand, and the inherent uncertainties as well, that span over all underlying processes, i.e., external, and internal. In this vein, we utilize a proposed HRES layout for the Aegean Island of Sifnos, Greece, to develop and evaluate a comprehensive simulation-optimization scheme in deterministic and, eventually, stochastic setting, revealing the design problem under the umbrella of uncertainty. In particular, we account for three major uncertain elements, namely the wind velocity (natural process), the energy demand (anthropogenic process), and the wind-to-power conversion (internal process, expressed in terms of a probabilistic power curve). Emphasis is also given to the decision-making procedure, which requires a thorough interpretation of the uncertainty-aware optimization outcomes. Finally, since the proposed PHS uses the sea as the lower reservoir, additional technical challenges are addressed.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2307/1/documents/sustainability-15-13313.pdf (4191 KB)
See also: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/18/13313
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Ayed, Y., R. Al Afif, P. Fortes, and C. Pfeifer, Optimal design and techno-economic analysis of hybrid renewable energy systems: A case study of Thala city, Tunisia, Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 19(1), 2308843, doi:10.1080/15567249.2024.2308843, 2024. |
| 2. | AlQallaf, N., A. AlQallaf, and R. Ghannam, Solar energy systems design using immersive virtual reality: A multi-modal evaluation approach, Solar, 4, 329-350, doi:10.3390/solar4020015, 2024. |
| 3. | Wang, H., Υ. Li, F. Wu, S. He, and R. Ding, Capacity optimization of pumped–hydro–wind–photovoltaic hybrid system based on normal boundary intersection method, Sustainability, 16(17), 7244, doi:10.3390/su16177244, 2024. |
| 4. | Skroufouta, S., A. Mavrogiannis, and E. Baltas, A methodological framework for the development of a hybrid renewable energy system with seawater pumped storage hydropower system under uncertainty in Karystos, Greece, Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments, 71, 104002, doi:10.1016/j.seta.2024.104002, 2024. |
| 5. | Momodu, A.-A., and A. Big-Alabo, Design optimization of a hybrid solar PV panel and pumped hydro energy supply system, Journal of Computational Mechanics, Power System and Control, 7(2), 53-75, doi:10.46253/jcmps.v7i2.a5, 2024. |
| 6. | Ramos, H. M., J. Pina, O. E. Coronado-Hernández, M. Pérez-Sánchez, and A. McNabola, Conceptual hybrid energy model for different power potential scales: Technical and economic approaches, Renewable Energy, 121486, doi:10.1016/j.renene.2024.121486, 2024. |
| 7. | Gao, Y., L. Lei, M. Zhang, Z. Zhao, J. Li, Md A. Mahmud, Z. Liu, M. Li, B. Deng, and D. Chen, Boosting floating photovoltaics via cooling methods and reservoir characteristics: Crafting optimal symbiosis with off-river pumped hydro storage, Energy, 312, 133501, doi:10.1016/j.energy.2024.133501, 2024. |
A. Roxani, A. Zisos, G.-K. Sakki, and A. Efstratiadis, Multidimensional role of agrovoltaics in era of EU Green Deal: Current status and analysis of water-energy-food-land dependencies, Land, 12 (5), 1069, doi:10.3390/land12051069, 2023.
The European Green Deal has set climate and energy targets for 2030 and the goal of achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, while supporting energy independence and economic growth. Following these goals, and as expected, the transition to “green” renewable energy is growing and will be intensified, in the near future. One of the main pillars of this transition, particularly for Mediterranean countries, is solar photovoltaic (PV) power. However, this is the least land-efficient energy source, while it is also highly competitive in food production, since solar parks are often developed in former agricultural areas, thus resulting in the systematic reduction in arable lands. Therefore, in the context of PV energy planning, the protection and preservation of arable lands should be considered a key issue. The emerging technology of agrovoltaics offers a balanced solution for both agricultural and renewable energy development. The sustainable “symbiosis” of food and energy under common lands also supports the specific objective of the post-2020 Common Agricultural Policy, regarding the mitigation of and adaptation to the changing climate, as well as the highly uncertain socio-economic and geopolitical environment. The purpose of this study is twofold, i.e., (a) to identify the state of play of the technologies and energy efficiency measures of agrovoltaics, and (b) to present a comprehensive analysis of their interactions with the water–energy–food–land nexus. As a proof of concept, we consider the plain of Arta, which is a typical agricultural area of Greece, where we employ a parametric analysis to assess key features of agrovoltaic development with respect to energy vs. food production, as well as water saving, as result of reduced evapotranspiration.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2290/1/documents/land-12-01069.pdf (656 KB)
See also: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/5/1069
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Zhong, T., Q. Zuo, J. Ma, Q. Wu, and Z. Zhang, Relationship identification between water-energy resource utilization efficiency and ecological risk in the context of assessment-decoupling two-stage framework—A case study of Henan Province, China, Water, 15(19), 3377, doi:10.3390/w15193377, 2023. |
| 2. | Mohammedi, S., G. Dragonetti, N. Admane, and A. Fouial, The impact of agrivoltaic systems on tomato crop: A case study in Southern Italy, Processes, 11(12), 3370, doi:10.3390/pr11123370, 2023. |
| 3. | Floroian, L., An innovative and sustainable solution – The agrovoltaic panels, Journal of EcoAgriTourism, 19(2), 44, 2023. |
| 4. | Petrakis, T., V. Thomopoulos, A. Kavga, and A. A. Argyriou, An algorithm for calculating the shade created by greenhouse integrated photovoltaics, Energy, Ecology and the Environment, 9, 272-300, doi:10.1007/s40974-023-00306-4, 2024. |
| 5. | Zhang, X., X. Wang, D. Si, H. Zhang, M. M. Ageli, and G. Mentel, Natural resources, food, energy and water: Structural shocks, food production and clean energy for USA in the view of COP27, Land Degradation & Development, 35(7), 2602-2613, doi:10.1002/ldr.5085, 2024. |
| 6. | Vourdoubas, J., Possibility of covering all the power demand in the island of Crete, Greece with solar photovoltaics, European Journal of Applied Science, Engineering and Technology, 2(3), 69-79, doi:10.59324/ejaset.2024.2(3).07, 2024. |
| 7. | Gartsiyanova, K., and S. Genchev, Potential applications of water-energy-food nexus concept through preservation and restoration of a remarkable site from Bulgarian Black Sea coast, International Journal of Conservation Science, 15(2), 1033-1046, doi:10.36868/IJCS.2024.02.19, 2024. |
| 8. | Chang, H., B. Zhang, J. Han, Y. Zhao, Y. Cao, J. Yao, and L. Shi, Evaluation of the coupling coordination and sustainable development of water–energy–land–food system on a 40-year scale: A case study of Hebei, China, Land, 13(7), 1089, doi:10.3390/land13071089, 2024. |
| 9. | Suproń, B., and J. Myszczyszyn, Impact of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on the production of the agricultural sector in the European Union, Energies, 17(15), 3743, doi:10.3390/en17153743, 2024. |
| 10. | Vourdoubas, J., Use of solar photovoltaic systems for meeting the power demand in the island of Crete, Greece avoiding the land use conflicts, American Scientific Research Journal for Engineering, Technology, and Sciences, 98(1), 37–52, 2024. |
| 11. | Hussain, S. N., and A. Ghosh, Evaluating tracking bifacial solar PV based agrivoltaics system across the UK, Solar Energy, 284, 113102, doi:10.1016/j.solener.2024.113102, 2024. |
S. Tsattalios, I. Tsoukalas, P. Dimas, P. Kossieris, A. Efstratiadis, and C. Makropoulos, Advancing surrogate-based optimization of time-expensive environmental problems through adaptive multi-model search, Environmental Modelling and Software, 162, 105639, doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105639, 2023.
Complex environmental optimization problems often require computationally expensive simulation models to assess candidate solutions. However, the complexity of response surfaces necessitates multiple such assessments and thus renders the search procedure too laborious. Surrogate-based optimization is a powerful approach for accelerating convergence towards promising solutions. Here we introduce the Adaptive Multi-Surrogate Enhanced Evolutionary Annealing Simplex (AMSEEAS) algorithm, as an extension of SEEAS, which is another well-established surrogate-based global optimization method. AMSEEAS exploits the strengths of multiple surrogate models that are combined via a roulette-type mechanism, for selecting a specific metamodel to be activated in every iteration. AMSEEAS proves its robustness and efficiency via extensive benchmarking against SEEAS and other state-of-the-art surrogate-based global optimization methods in both theoretical mathematical problems and in a computationally demanding real-world hydraulic design application. The latter seeks for cost-effective sizing of levees along a drainage channel to minimize flood inundation, calculated by the time-expensive hydrodynamic model HEC-RAS.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2266/1/documents/AMSEEAS_paper.pdf (14432 KB)
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Zhang, D., J. Zhang, and Y. Wang, Game based pigeon-inspired optimization with repository assistance for stochastic optimizations with uncertain infeasible search regions, 2023 IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation (CEC), 1-8, Chicago, IL, USA, doi:10.1109/CEC53210.2023.10253991, 2023. |
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| 4. | Priya, G. V., and S. Ganguly, Multi-swarm surrogate model assisted PSO algorithm to minimize distribution network energy losses, Applied Soft Computing, 159, 111616, doi:10.1016/j.asoc.2024.111616, 2024. |
| 5. | Carey, C. C., R. S. D. Calder, R. J. Figueiredo, R. B. Gramacy, M. E. Lofton, M. E. Schreiber, and R. Q. Thomas, A framework for developing a real-time lake phytoplankton forecasting system to support water quality management in the face of global change, Ambio, doi:10.1007/s13280-024-02076-7, 2024. |
| 6. | Zeigler, B. P., C. Koertje, and C. Zanni, The utility of homomorphism concepts in simulation: building families of models from base-lumped model pairs, Simulation, 100(12), 1181-1196, doi:10.1177/003754972412648, 2024. |
A. Efstratiadis, and G.-K. Sakki, Revisiting the management of water–energy systems under the umbrella of resilience optimization, Environmental Sciences Proceedings, 21 (1), 72, doi:10.3390/environsciproc2022021072, 2022.
The optimal management of sociotechnical systems across the water–energy nexus is a critical issue for the overall goal of sustainable development. However, the new challenges induced by global crises and sudden changes require a paradigm shift in order to ensure tolerance against such kinds of disturbance that are beyond their “normal” operational standards. This may be achieved by incorporating the concept of resilience within the procedure for extracting optimal management policies and assessing their performance by means of well-designed stress tests. The proposed approach is investigated by using as proof of concept the complex and highly extended water resource system of Athens, Greece.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2252/1/documents/environsciproc-21-00072.pdf (2203 KB)
See also: https://www.mdpi.com/2673-4931/21/1/72
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Wang, S., P. Zhong, F. Zhu, B. Xu, C. Xu, L. Yang, and m. Ben, Multi-objective optimization operation of multiple water sources under inflow-water demand forecast dual uncertainties, Journal of Hydrology, 130679, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130679, 2024. |
G.-K. Sakki, I. Tsoukalas, P. Kossieris, C. Makropoulos, and A. Efstratiadis, Stochastic simulation-optimisation framework for the design and assessment of renewable energy systems under uncertainty, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 168, 112886, doi:10.1016/j.rser.2022.112886, 2022.
As the share of renewable energy resources rapidly increases in the electricity mix, the recognition, representation, quantification, and eventually interpretation of their uncertainties become important. In this vein, we propose a generic stochastic simulation-optimization framework tailored to renewable energy systems (RES), able to address multiple facets of uncertainty, external and internal. These involve the system’s drivers (hydrometeorological inputs) and states (by means of fuel-to-energy conversion model parameters and energy market price), both expressed in probabilistic terms through a novel coupling of the triptych statistics, stochastics and copulas. Since the most widespread sources (wind, solar, hydro) exhibit several common characteristics, we first introduce the formulation of the overall modelling context under uncertainty, and then offer uncertainty quantification tools to put in practice the plethora of simulated outcomes and resulting performance metrics (investment costs, energy production, revenues). The proposed framework is applied to two indicative case studies, namely the design of a small hydropower plant (particularly, the optimal mixing of its hydro-turbines), and the long-term assessment of a planned wind power plant. Both cases reveal that the ignorance or underestimation of uncertainty may hide a significant perception about the actual operation and performance of RES. In contrast, the stochastic simulation-optimization context allows for assessing their technoeconomic effectiveness against a wide range of uncertainties, and as such provides a critical tool for decision making, towards the deployment of sustainable and financially viable RES.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2229/1/documents/stochasticRES.pdf (6011 KB)
See also: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032122007687
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Woon, K. S., Z. X. Phuang, J. Taler, P. S. Varbanov, C. T. Chong, J. J. Klemeš, and C. T. Lee, Recent advances in urban green energy development towards carbon neutrality, Energy, 126502, doi:10.1016/j.energy.2022.126502, 2022. |
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| 4. | Yin, S., L. Chen, and H. Qin, Reduced space optimization-based evidence theory method for response analysis of space-coiled acoustic metamaterials with epistemic uncertainty, Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2023, 9937158, doi:10.1155/2023/9937158, 2023. |
| 5. | Qu, K., H. Zhang, X. Zhou, F. Causone, X. Huang, X. Shen, and X. Zhu, Optimal design of building integrated energy systems by combining two-phase optimization and a data-driven model, Energy and Buildings, 295, 113304, doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2023.113304, 2023. |
| 6. | Wang, Z., W. Zhang, H. Fan, C. Zhang, Y. Zhao, and Z. Huang, An uncertainty-tolerant robust distributed control strategy for building cooling water systems considering measurement uncertainties, Journal of Building Engineering, 76, 107162, doi:10.1016/j.jobe.2023.107162, 2023. |
| 7. | Caputo, A. C., A. Federici, P. M. Pelagagge, and P. Salini, Offshore wind power system economic evaluation framework under aleatory and epistemic uncertainty, Applied Energy, 350, 121585, doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121585, 2023. |
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| 9. | Wang, Q., and L. Zhao, Data-driven stochastic robust optimization of sustainable utility system, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 188, 113841, doi:10.1016/j.rser.2023.113841, 2023. |
| 10. | Ahmed, S., T. Li, P. Yi, and R. Chen, Environmental impact assessment of green ammonia-powered very large tanker ship for decarbonized future shipping operations, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 188, 113774, doi:10.1016/j.rser.2023.113774, 2023. |
| 11. | Maitra, S., V. Mishra, and S. Kundu, A novel approach with Monte-Carlo simulation and hybrid optimization approach for inventory management with stochastic demand, arXiv e-prints, 2023. |
| 12. | Al Hasibi, R. A., and A. Haris, An analysis of the implementation of a hybrid renewable-energy system in a building by considering the reduction in electricity price subsidies and the reliability of the grid, Clean Energy, 7(5), 1125-1135, doi:10.1093/ce/zkad053, 2023. |
| 13. | Caputo, A. C., A. Federici, P. M. Pelagagge, and P. Salini, Scenario analysis of offshore wind-power systems under uncertainty, Sustainability, 15(24), 16912, doi:10.3390/su152416912, 2023. |
| 14. | Li, Y., F. Wu, X. Song, L. Shi, K. Lin, and F. Hong, Data-driven chance-constrained schedule optimization of cascaded hydropower and photovoltaic complementary generation systems for shaving peak loads, Sustainability, 15(24), 16916, doi:10.3390/su152416916, 2023. |
| 15. | Kim, S., Y. Choi, J. Park, D. Adams, S. Heo, and J. H. Lee, Multi-period, multi-timescale stochastic optimization model for simultaneous capacity investment and energy management decisions for hybrid Micro-Grids with green hydrogen production under uncertainty, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 190(A), 114049, doi:10.1016/j.rser.2023.114049, 2024. |
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| 18. | Gómez-Beas, R., E. Contreras, M. J. Polo, and C. Aguilar, Stochastic flow analysis for optimization of the operationality in run-of-river hydroelectric plants in mountain areas, Energies, 17(7), 1705, doi:10.3390/en17071705, 2024. |
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| 20. | Leng, R., Z. Li, and Y. Xu, Joint planning of utility-owned distributed energy resources in an unbalanced active distribution network considering asset health degradation, IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, 15(4), 3768-3781, doi:10.1109/TSG.2024.3365974, 2024. |
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R. Ioannidis, N. Mamassis, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Reversing visibility analysis: Towards an accelerated a priori assessment of landscape impacts of renewable energy projects, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 161, 112389, doi:10.1016/j.rser.2022.112389, 2022.
Impacts to landscapes have been identified as major drivers of social opposition against renewable energy projects. We investigate how the process of mitigating landscape impacts can be improved and accelerated, through a re-conceptualization of visibility analysis. In their conventional format, visibility analyses cannot be implemented in early planning phases as they require the finalized locations of projects as input. Thus, visual impacts to landscapes cannot be assessed until late in development, when licensing procedures have already begun and projects' locations have already been finalized. In order to overcome this issue and facilitate the earlier identification of impactful projects we investigate the reversal of visibility analyses. By shifting the focus of the analyses from the infrastructure that generates visual impacts to the areas that have to be protected from these impacts, visibility analyses no longer require projects' locations as input. This methodological shift is initially investigated theoretically and then practically, in the region of Thessaly, Greece, computing Reverse - Zones of Theoretical Visibility (R-ZTVs) for important landscape elements of the region, in order to then project visual impacts to them by planned wind energy projects. It was demonstrated that reversing visibility analyses (a) enables the creation of R-ZTV-type maps that facilitate the anticipation of landscape impacts of projects from earlier planning stages and (b) discards the requirement for individual visibility analyses for each new project, thus accelerating project development. Furthermore, R-ZTV maps can be utilized in participatory planning processes or be used independently by projects' investors and by stakeholders in landscape protection.
Additional material:
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Duarte, R., Á. García-Riazuelo, L. A. Sáez, and C. Sarasa, Analysing citizens’ perceptions of renewable energies in rural areas: A case study on wind farms in Spain, Energy Reports, 8, 12822-12831, doi:10.1016/j.egyr.2022.09.173, 2022. |
| 2. | Ko, I., Rural opposition to landscape change from solar energy: Explaining the diffusion of setback restrictions on solar farms across South Korean counties, Energy Research & Social Science, 99, 103073, doi:10.1016/j.erss.2023.103073, 2023. |
| 3. | Mikita, T., L. Janošíková, J. Caha, and E. Avoiani, The potential of UAV data as refinement of outdated inputs for visibility analyses, Remote Sensing, 15(4), 1028, doi:10.3390/rs15041028, 2023. |
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A. Efstratiadis, P. Dimas, G. Pouliasis, I. Tsoukalas, P. Kossieris, V. Bellos, G.-K. Sakki, C. Makropoulos, and S. Michas, Revisiting flood hazard assessment practices under a hybrid stochastic simulation framework, Water, 14 (3), 457, doi:10.3390/w14030457, 2022.
We propose a novel probabilistic approach to flood hazard assessment, aiming to address the major shortcomings of everyday deterministic engineering practices in a computationally efficient manner. In this context, the principal sources of uncertainty are defined across the overall modelling procedure, namely, the statistical uncertainty of inferring annual rainfall maxima through distribution models that are fitted to empirical data, and the inherently stochastic nature of the underlying hydrometeorological and hydrodynamic processes. Our work focuses on three key facets, i.e., the temporal profile of storm events, the dependence of flood generation mechanisms to antecedent soil moisture conditions, and the dependence of runoff propagation over the terrain and the stream network on the intensity of the flood event. These are addressed through the implementation of a series of cascade modules, based on publicly available and open-source software. Moreover, the hydrodynamic processes are simulated by a hybrid 1D/2D modelling approach, which offers a good compromise between computational efficiency and accuracy. The proposed framework enables the estimation of the uncertainty of all flood-related quantities, by means of empirically-derived quantiles for given return periods. Finally, a set of easily applicable flood hazard metrics are introduced for the quantification of flood hazard.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2170/1/documents/water-14-00457.pdf (6083 KB)
See also: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/3/457
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Tegos, A., A. Ziogas, V. Bellos, and A. Tzimas, Forensic hydrology: a complete reconstruction of an extreme flood event in data-scarce area, Hydrology, 9(5), 93, doi:10.3390/hydrology9050093, 2022. |
| 2. | Afzal, M. A., S. Ali, A. Nazeer, M. I. Khan, M. M. Waqas, R. A. Aslam, M. J. M. Cheema, M. Nadeem, N. Saddique, M. Muzammil, and A. N. Shah, Flood inundation modeling by integrating HEC–RAS and satellite imagery: A case study of the Indus river basin, Water, 14(19), 2984, doi:10.3390/w14192984, 2022. |
| 3. | Vangelis, H., I. Zotou, I. M. Kourtis, V. Bellos, and V. A. Tsihrintzis, Relationship of rainfall and flood return periods through hydrologic and hydraulic modeling, Water, 14(22), 3618, doi:10.3390/w14223618, 2022. |
| 4. | Maranzoni, A., M. D’Oria, and C. Rizzo, Quantitative flood hazard assessment methods: A review, Journal of Flood Risk Management, 16(1), e12855, doi:10.1111/jfr3.12855, 2022. |
| 5. | Szeląg, B., P. Kowal, A. Kiczko, A. Białek, D. Majerek, P. Siwicki, F. Fatone, and G. Boczkaj, Integrated model for the fast assessment of flood volume: Modelling – management, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, Journal of Hydrology, 625(A), 129967, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129967, 2023. |
| 6. | Rozos, E., V. Bellos, J. Kalogiros, and K. Mazi, efficient flood early warning system for data-scarce, karstic, mountainous environments: A case study, Hydrology, 10(10), 203, doi:10.3390/hydrology10100203, 2023. |
| 7. | Szeląg, B., D. Majerek, A. L. Eusebi, A. Kiczko, F. de Paola, A. McGarity, G. Wałek, and F. Fatone, Tool for fast assessment of stormwater flood volumes for urban catchment: A machine learning approach, Journal of Environmental Management, 355, 120214, doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120214, 2024. |
| 8. | Lahsaini, M., F. Albano, R. Albano, A. Mazzariello, and T. Lacava, A synthetic aperture radar-based robust satellite technique (RST) for timely mapping of floods, Remote Sensing, 16(12), 2193, doi:10.3390/rs161221932024. |
K.-K. Drakaki, G.-K. Sakki, I. Tsoukalas, P. Kossieris, and A. Efstratiadis, Day-ahead energy production in small hydropower plants: uncertainty-aware forecasts through effective coupling of knowledge and data, Advances in Geosciences, 56, 155–162, doi:10.5194/adgeo-56-155-2022, 2022.
Motivated by the challenges induced by the so-called Target Model and the associated changes to the current structure of the energy market, we revisit the problem of day-ahead prediction of power production from Small Hydropower Plants (SHPPs) without storage capacity. Using as an example a typical run-of-river SHPP in Western Greece, we test alternative forecasting schemes (from regression-based to machine learning) that take advantage of different levels of information. In this respect, we investigate whether it is preferable to use as predictor the known energy production of previous days, or to predict the day-ahead inflows and next estimate the resulting energy production via simulation. Our analyses indicate that the second approach becomes clearly more advantageous when the expert’s knowledge about the hydrological regime and the technical characteristics of the SHPP is incorporated within the model training procedure. Beyond these, we also focus on the predictive uncertainty that characterize such forecasts, with overarching objective to move beyond the standard, yet risky, point forecasting methods, providing a single expected value of power production. Finally, we discuss the use of the proposed forecasting procedure under uncertainty in the real-world electricity market.
Remarks:
The simulation and forecasting models have been developed in the R environment and they are available at: https://github.com/corinadrakaki/Day-ahead-energy-production-in-small-hydropower-plants
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2165/1/documents/adgeo-56-155-2022.pdf (217 KB)
See also: https://adgeo.copernicus.org/articles/56/155/2022/
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Krechowicz, A., M. Krechowicz, and K. Poczeta, Machine learning approaches to predict electricity production from renewable energy sources, Energies, 15(23), 9146, doi:10.3390/en15239146, 2022. |
| 2. | Ghobadi, F., and D. Kang, Application of machine learning in water resources management: A systematic literature review, Water, 15(4), 620, doi:10.3390/w15040620, 2023. |
| 3. | Chen, B., Y. Long, H. Wei, B. Li, Y. Zhang, W. Deng, and C. Li, A weak-coupling flow-power forecasting method for small hydropower station group, International Journal of Energy Research, 2023, 1214269, doi:10.1155/2023/1214269, 2023. |
| 4. | Karakuş, M. O., Impact of climatic factors on the prediction of hydroelectric power generation: A deep CNN-SVR approach, Geocarto International, 38(1), doi:10.1080/10106049.2023.2253203, 2023. |
| 5. | #Chauhan, R., N. Batra, S. Goyal, and A. Kaur, Optimizing water resources with IoT and ML: A water management system, Innovations in Machine Learning and IoT for Water Management, A. Kumar, A. Lal Srivastav, A. Kumar Dubey, V. Dutt, N. Vyas (editors), Chapter 4, 94-109, doi:10.4018/979-8-3693-1194-3.ch005, 2024. |
| 6. | Sahin, M. E., and M. Ozbay Karakus, Smart hydropower management: utilizing machine learning and deep learning method to enhance dam’s energy generation efficiency, Neural Computing & Applications, doi:10.1007/s00521-024-09613-1, 2024. |
| 7. | Lincaru, C., A. Grigorescu, and H. Dincer, Parabolic modeling forecasts of space and time european hydropower production, Processes, 12, 1098, doi:10.3390/pr12061098, 2024. |
G.-K. Sakki, I. Tsoukalas, and A. Efstratiadis, A reverse engineering approach across small hydropower plants: a hidden treasure of hydrological data?, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 67 (1), 94–106, doi:10.1080/02626667.2021.2000992, 2022.
The limited availability of hydrometric data makes the design, management, and real-time operation of water systems a difficult task. Here, we propose a generic stochastic framework for the so-called inverse problem of hydroelectricity, using energy production data from small hydropower plants (SHPPs) to retrieve the upstream inflows. In this context, we investigate the alternative configurations of water-energy transformations across SHPPs of negligible storage capacity, which are subject to multiple uncertainties. We focus on two key sources, i.e. observational errors in energy production and uncertain efficiency curves of turbines. In order to extract the full hydrograph, we also extrapolate the high and low flows outside of the range of operation of turbines, by employing empirical rules for representing the rising and falling limbs of the simulated hydrographs. This framework is demonstrated to a real-world system at Evinos river basin, Greece. By taking advantage of the proposed methodology, SHPPs may act as potential hydrometric stations and improve the existing information in poorly gauged areas.
Additional material:
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Garrett, K. P., R. A. McManamay, and A. Witt, Harnessing the power of environmental flows: Sustaining river ecosystem integrity while increasing energy potential at hydropower dams, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 173(1), 113049, doi:10.1016/j.rser.2022.113049, 2023. |
| 2. | Rumbayan, M., S. R. U. Sompie, S. Tangkuman, K. Abast, and R. Rumbayan, The concept of educational park for introducing micro hydro energy in rural communities (The case study of Lalumpe Village in Indonesia), Journal of Physics: Conference Series, Vol. 2828, 7th International Energy Conference (Astechnova 2023), doi:10.1088/1742-6596/2828/1/012049, 2024. |
P. Kossieris, I. Tsoukalas, A. Efstratiadis, and C. Makropoulos, Generic framework for downscaling statistical quantities at fine time-scales and its perspectives towards cost-effective enrichment of water demand records, Water, 13 (23), 3429, doi:10.3390/w13233429, 2021.
The challenging task of generating synthetic time series at finer temporal scales than the observed data, embeds the reconstruction of a number of essential statistical quantities at the desirable (i.e., lower) scale of interest. This paper introduces a parsimonious and general framework for the downscaling of statistical quantities, based solely on available information at coarser time scales. The methodology is based on three key elements: a) the analysis of statistics’ behaviour across multiple temporal scales; b) the use of parametric functions to model this behaviour; and c) the exploitation of extrapolation capabilities of the functions to downscale the associated statistical quantities at finer scales. Herein, we demonstrate the methodology using residential water demand records, and focus on the downscaling of the following key quantities: variance, L-variation, L-skewness and probability of zero value (no demand; intermittency), which are typically used to parameterise a stochastic simulation model. Specifically, we downscale the above statistics down to 1 min scale, assuming two scenarios of initial data resolution, i.e., 5 and 10 min. The evaluation of the methodology on several cases indicates that the four statistics can be well reconstructed. Going one step further, we place the downscaling methodology in a more integrated modelling framework for a cost-effective enhancement of fine-resolution records with synthetic ones, embracing the current limited availability of fine-resolution water demand measurements.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2164/1/documents/water-13-03429.pdf (2042 KB)
N. Mamassis, K. Mazi, E. Dimitriou, D. Kalogeras, N. Malamos, S. Lykoudis, A. Koukouvinos, I. L. Tsirogiannis, I. Papageorgaki, A. Papadopoulos, Y. Panagopoulos, D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Christofides, A. Efstratiadis, G. Vitantzakis, N. Kappos, D. Katsanos, B. Psiloglou, E. Rozos, T. Kopania, I. Koletsis, and A. D. Koussis, OpenHi.net: A synergistically built, national-scale infrastructure for monitoring the surface waters of Greece, Water, 13 (19), 2779, doi:10.3390/w13192779, 2021.
The large-scale surface-water monitoring infrastructure for Greece Open Hydrosystem Information Network (Openhi.net) is presented in this paper. Openhi.net provides free access to water data, incorporating existing networks that manage their own databases. In its pilot phase, Openhi.net operates three telemetric networks for monitoring the quantity and the quality of surface waters, as well as meteorological and soil variables. Aspiring members must also offer their data for public access. A web-platform was developed for on-line visualization, processing and managing telemetric data. A notification system was also designed and implemented for inspecting the current values of variables. The platform is built upon the web 2.0 technology that exploits the ever-increasing capabilities of browsers to handle dynamic data as a time series. A GIS component offers web-services relevant to geo-information for water bodies. Accessing, querying and downloading geographical data for watercourses (segment length, slope, name, stream order) and for water basins (area, mean elevation, mean slope, basin order, slope, mean CN-curve number) are provided by Web Map Services and Web Feature Services. A new method for estimating the streamflow from measurements of the surface velocity has been advanced as well to reduce hardware expenditures, a low-cost ‘prototype’ hydro-telemetry system (at about half the cost of a comparable commercial system) was designed, constructed and installed at six monitoring stations of Openhi.net.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2147/1/documents/water-13-02779-v2.pdf (3567 KB)
See also: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/19/2779
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Spyrou, C., M. Loupis, N. Charizopoulos, P. Arvanitis, A. Mentzafou, E. Dimitriou, S. E. Debele, J. Sahani, and P. Kumar, Evaluating nature-based solution for flood reduction in Spercheios river basin Part 2: Early experimental evidence, Sustainability, 14(6), 10345, doi:10.3390/su141610345, 2022. |
| 2. | #Chrysanthopoulos, E., C. Pouliaris, I. Tsiroggianis, K. Markantonis, P. Kofakis, and A. Kallioras, Evaluating the efficiency of numerical and data driven modeling in forecasting soil water content, Proceedings of the 3rd IAHR Young Professionals Congress, 64-65, 2022. |
| 3. | #Samih, I., and D. Loudyi, Short-term urban water demand forecasting using Theta Models in Casablanca city, Morocco, Proceedings of the 3rd IAHR Young Professionals Congress, International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research, 2022. |
| 4. | Mazi, K., A. D. Koussis, S. Lykoudis, B. E. Psiloglou, G. Vitantzakis, N. Kappos, D. Katsanos, E. Rozos, I. Koletsis, and T. Kopania, Establishing and operating (pilot phase) a telemetric streamflow monitoring network in Greece, Hydrology, 10(1), 19, doi:10.3390/hydrology10010019, 2023. |
| 5. | Koltsida, E., N. Mamassis, and A. Kallioras, Hydrological modeling using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool in urban and peri-urban environments: the case of Kifisos experimental subbasin (Athens, Greece), Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 27, 917-931, doi:10.5194/hess-27-917-2023, 2023. |
| 6. | Tsirogiannis, I. L., N. Malamos, and P. Baltzoi, Application of a generic participatory decision support system for irrigation management for the case of a wine grapevine at Epirus, Northwest Greece, Horticulturae, 9(2), 267, doi:10.3390/horticulturae9020267, 2023. |
| 7. | Yeşilköy, S., Ö. Baydaroğlu, N. Singh, Y. Sermet, and I. Demir, A contemporary systematic review of cyberinfrastructure systems and applications for flood and drought data analytics and communication, EarthArXiv, doi:10.31223/X5937W, 2023. |
| 8. | Fotia, K., and I. Tsirogiannis, Water footprint score: A practical method for wider communication and assessment of water footprint performance, Environmental Sciences Proceedings, 25(1), 71, doi:10.3390/ECWS-7-14311, 2023. |
| 9. | Bloutsos, A. A., V. I. Syngouna, I. D. Manariotis, and P. C. Yannopoulos, Seasonal and long-term water quality of Alfeios River Basin in Greece, Water, Air and Soil Pollution, 235, 215, doi:10.1007/s11270-024-06981-1, 2024. |
| 10. | Kalantzopoulos, G., P. Paraskevopoulos, G. Domalis, A. Liopa-Tsakalidi, D. E. Tsesmelis, and P. E. Barouchas, The Western Greece Soil Information System (WΕSIS)—A soil health design supported by the internet of things, soil databases, and artificial intelligence technologies in Western Greece, Sustainability, 16(8), 3478, doi:10.3390/su16083478, 2024. |
| 11. | Pappa, D., A. Kallioras, and D. Kaliampakos, Water mismanagement in agriculture: a case study of Greece. Starting with “how” and "why", Al-Qadisiyah Journal For Agriculture Sciences, 14(1), 90-106, doi:10.33794/qjas.2024.149833.1175, 2024. |
| 12. | #Chrysanthopoulos, E., C. Pouliaris, I. Tsirogiannis, P. Kofakis, and A. Kallioras, Development of soil moisture model based on deep learning, In: Ksibi, M., et al. Recent Advances in Environmental Science from the Euro-Mediterranean and Surrounding Regions (4th Edition), EMCEI 2022. Advances in Science, Technology & Innovation. Springer, Cham, doi:10.1007/978-3-031-51904-8_105, 2024. |
G.-F. Sargentis, P. Siamparina, G.-K. Sakki, A. Efstratiadis, M. Chiotinis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Agricultural land or photovoltaic parks? The water–energy–food nexus and land development perspectives in the Thessaly plain, Greece, Sustainability, 13 (16), 8935, doi:10.3390/su13168935, 2021.
Water, energy, land, and food are vital elements with multiple interactions. In this context, the concept of a water–energy–food (WEF) nexus was manifested as a natural resource management approach, aiming at promoting sustainable development at the international, national, or local level and eliminating the negative effects that result from the use of each of the four resources against the other three. At the same time, the transition to green energy through the application of renewable energy technologies is changing and perplexing the relationships between the constituent elements of the nexus, introducing new conflicts, particularly related to land use for energy production vs. food. Specifically, one of the most widespread “green” technologies is photovoltaic (PV) solar energy, now being the third foremost renewable energy source in terms of global installed capacity. However, the growing development of PV systems results in ever expanding occupation of agricultural lands, which are most advantageous for siting PV parks. Using as study area the Thessaly Plain, the largest agricultural area in Greece, we investigate the relationship between photovoltaic power plant development and food production in an attempt to reveal both their conflicts and their synergies.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2136/1/documents/sustainability-13-08935.pdf (2709 KB)
See also: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/16/8935
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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| 7. | Goldberg, G. A., Solar energy development on farmland: Three prevalent perspectives of conflict, synergy and compromise in the United States, Energy Research & Social Science, 101, 103145, doi:10.1016/j.erss.2023.103145, 2023. |
| 8. | Lucca, E., J. El Jeitany, G. Castelli, T. Pacetti, E. Bresci, F. Nardi, and E. Caporali, A review of water-energy-food-ecosystems nexus research in the Mediterranean: Evolution, gaps and applications, Environmental Research Letters, 18, 083001, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ace375, 2023. |
| 9. | Zavahir, S., T. Elmakki, M. Gulied, H. K. Shon, H. Park, K. K. Kakosimos, and D. S. Han, Integrated photoelectrochemical (PEC)-forward osmosis (FO) system for hydrogen production and fertigation application, Journal of Environmental Chemical Engineering, 11(5), 110525, doi:10.1016/j.jece.2023.110525, 2023. |
| 10. | Karasmanaki, E., S. Galatsidas, K. Ioannou, and G. Tsantopoulos, Investigating willingness to invest in renewable energy to achieve energy targets and lower carbon emissions, Atmosphere, 14(10), 1471, doi:10.3390/atmos14101471, 2023. |
| 11. | Zhou, Z., H. Liao, H. Li, X. Gu, and M. M. Ageli, The trilemma of food production, clean energy, and water: COP27 perspective of global economy, Land Degradation and Development, 35(4), 1425-1436, doi:10.1002/ldr.4996, 2024. |
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| 15. | Rosley, M. S. F., N. Z. Harun, J. N. Yusof, and S. R. Abdul Rahman, Empowering public participation in assessing the indicators of aesthetic value for historical landscape: a case study on Melaka, Malaysia, Cogent Arts & Humanities, 11(1), doi:10.1080/23311983.2024.2380114, 2024. |
| 16. | Wang, J., X. Cui, M. Zhao, T. Zheng, C. Tu, and Y. Zhang, Research on the synergy of the water–energy–food composite system in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, Water Policy, 26(9), 875-894, doi:10.2166/wp.2024.065, 2024. |
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| 18. | Dias, I. Y. P., L. L. B. Lazaro, M. P. B. de Castro, R. N. Dagios, and V. G. Barros, Watersheds governance optimizing water-energy-food nexus approach across water users and watershed scales, Water Resources Management, doi:10.1007/s11269-024-03984-9, 2024. |
| 19. | Neto, A. B., A. G. Rocha, and B. G. de Oliveira, Reconciling photovoltaic energy production and agribusiness: Challenges for sustainable energy growth and land use for agricultural production, Estudios Rurales, 14(30), doi:10.48160/22504001er30.540, 2024. |
G. Papaioannou, L. Vasiliades, A. Loukas, A. Alamanos, A. Efstratiadis, A. Koukouvinos, I. Tsoukalas, and P. Kossieris, A flood inundation modelling approach for urban and rural areas in lake and large-scale river basins, Water, 13 (9), 1264, doi:10.3390/w13091264, 2021.
Fluvial floods are one of the primary natural hazards to our society, and the associated flood risk should always be evaluated for present and future conditions. The European Union’s Floods Directive highlights the importance of flood mapping as a key-stage for detecting vulnerable areas, assessing floods’ impacts, and identifying damages and compensation plans. The implementation of the E.U. Flood Directive in Greece is challenging, because of its geophysical and climatic variability and diverse hydrologic and hydraulic conditions. This study addresses this challenge by modelling of design rainfall at sub-watershed level and subsequent estimation of flood design hydrographs using the NRCS Unit Hydrograph Procedure. HEC-RAS 2D model is used for flood routing, estimation of flood attributes (i.e., water depths and flow velocities) and mapping of inundated areas. The modelling approach has been applied at two complex and ungauged representative basins: Lake Pamvotida basin located in the Epirus Region of the wet western Greece and Pinios River basin located in Thessaly Region of the drier central Greece, a basin with a complex dendritic hydrographic system, expanding to more than 1188 river-km. The proposed modelling approach aims to better estimation and mapping of flood inundation areas including relative uncertainties and providing guidance to professionals and academics.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2121/1/documents/water-13-01264-v2.pdf (45029 KB)
See also: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/9/1264
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Varlas, G., A. Papadopoulos, G. Papaioannou, and E. Dimitriou, Evaluating the forecast skill of a hydrometeorological modelling system in Greece, Atmosphere, 12(7), 902, doi:10.3390/atmos12070902, 2021. |
| 2. | Karamvasis, K., and V. Karathanassi, FLOMPY: An open-source toolbox for floodwater mapping using Sentinel-1 intensity time series, Water, 13(21), 2943, doi:10.3390/w13212943, 2021. |
| 3. | Alamanos, A., P. Koundouri, L. Papadaki, and T. Pliakou, A system innovation approach for science-stakeholder interface: theory and application to water-land-food-energy nexus, Frontiers in Water, 3, 744773, doi:10.3389/frwa.2021.744773, 2022. |
| 4. | Papaioannou, G., V. Markogianni, A. Loukas, and E. Dimitriou, Remote sensing methodology for roughness estimation in ungauged streams for different hydraulic/hydrodynamic modeling approaches, Water, 14(7), 1076, doi:10.3390/w14071076, 2022. |
| 5. | Borowska-Stefańska, M., L. Balážovičová, K. Goniewicz, M. Kowalski, P. Kurzyk, M. Masný, S. Wiśniewski, M. Žoncová, and A. Khorram-Manesh, Emergency management of self-evacuation from flood hazard areas in Poland, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 107, 103307, doi:10.1016/j.trd.2022.103307, 2022. |
| 6. | #Alamanos, A., and P. Koundouri, Emerging challenges and the future of water resources management, DEOS Working Papers, 2221, Athens University of Economics and Business, 2022. |
| 7. | Ciurte, D. L., A. Mihu-Pintilie, A. Urzică, and A. Grozavu, Integrating LIDAR data, 2d HEC-RAS modeling and remote sensing to develop flood hazard maps downstream of a large reservoir in the inner Eastern Carpathians, Carpathian Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, 18(1), 149-169, doi:10.26471/cjees/2023/018/248, 2023. |
| 8. | Vasiliades, L., G. Papaioannou, and A. Loukas, A unified hydrologic framework for flood design estimation in ungauged basins, Environmental Sciences Proceedings, 25(1), 40, doi:10.3390/ECWS-7-14194, 2023. |
| 9. | Iliadis, C., P. Galiatsatou, V. Glenis, P. Prinos, and C. Kilsby, Urban flood modelling under extreme rainfall conditions for building-level flood exposure analysis, Hydrology, 10(8), 172, doi:10.3390/hydrology10080172, 2023. |
| 10. | Iliadis, C., V. Glenis, and C. Kilsby, Cloud modelling of property-level flood exposure in megacities, Water, 15(19), 3395, doi:10.3390/w15193395, 2023. |
| 11. | Alamanos, A., G. Papaioannou, G. Varlas, V. Markogianni, A. Papadopoulos, and E. Dimitriou, Representation of a post-fire flash-flood event combining meteorological simulations, remote sensing, and hydraulic modeling, Land, 13(1), 47, doi:10.3390/land13010047, 2024. |
| 12. | Semiem A. G., G. T. Diro, T. Demissie, Y. M. Yigezu, and B. Hailu, Towards improved flash flood forecasting over Dire Dawa, Ethiopia using WRF-Hydro, Water, 15(18), 3262, doi:10.3390/w15183262, 2023. |
| 13. | #Alamanos, A., and P. Kountouri, Integrated and sustainable water resources management: Modeling, Elgar Encyclopedia of Water Policy, Economics and Management, edited by P. Kountouri and A. Alamanos, Chapter 32, 137-141, Edward Elgar Publishing, doi:10.4337/9781802202946.00039, 2024. |
| 14. | #Alamanos, A., and P. Kountouri, Future challenges of water resources management, Elgar Encyclopedia of Water Policy, Economics and Management, edited by P. Kountouri and A. Alamanos, Chapter 21, 87-93, Edward Elgar Publishing, doi:10.4337/9781802202946.00028, 2024. |
| 15. | Varlas, G., A. Papadopoulos, G. Papaioannou, V. Markogianni, A. Alamanos, and E. Dimitriou, Integrating ensemble weather predictions in a hydrologic-hydraulic modelling system for fine-resolution flood forecasting: The Case of Skala bridge at Evrotas River, Greece, Atmosphere, 15(1), 120, doi:10.3390/atmos15010120, 2024. |
| 16. | Alamanos, A., G. Papaioannou, G. Varlas, V. Markogianni, A. Plataniotis, A. Papadopoulos, E. Dimitriou, and P. Koundouri, Article designing post-fire flood protection techniques for a real event in Central Greece, Prevention and Treatment of Natural Disasters, 3(2), doi:10.54963/ptnd.v3i2.303, 2024. |
| 17. | Dulawan, J. M. T., Y. Imamura, and H. Amaguchi, Integrating social vulnerability to flood risk assessment in Metro Manila, River, doi:10.1002/rvr2.108, 2024. |
| 18. | Gholami F., Y. Li, J. Zhang, and A. Nemati, Quantitative assessment of future environmental changes in hydrological risk components: Integration of remote sensing, machine learning, and hydraulic modeling, Water, 16(23), 3354, doi:10.3390/w16233354, 2024. |
A. Efstratiadis, I. Tsoukalas, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Generalized storage-reliability-yield framework for hydroelectric reservoirs, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 66 (4), 580–599, doi:10.1080/02626667.2021.1886299, 2021.
Although storage-reliability-yield (SRY) relationships have been widely used in the design and planning of water supply reservoirs, their application in hydroelectricity is practically nil. Here, we revisit the SRY analysis and seek its generic configuration for hydroelectric reservoirs, following a stochastic simulation approach. After defining key concepts and tools of conventional SRY studies, we adapt them for hydropower systems, which are subject to several peculiarities. We illustrate that under some reasonable assumptions, the problem can be substantially simplified. Major innovations are the storage-head-energy conversion via the use of a sole parameter, representing the reservoir geometry, and the development of an empirical statistical metric expressing the reservoir performance on the basis of the simulated energy-probability curve. The proposed framework is applied to numerous hypothetical reservoirs at three river sites in Greece, using monthly synthetic inflow data, to provide empirical expressions of reliable energy as a function of reservoir storage and geometry.
Additional material:
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Spanoudaki, K., P. Dimitriadis, E. A. Varouchakis, and G. A. C. Perez, Estimation of hydropower potential using Bayesian and stochastic approaches for streamflow simulation and accounting for the intermediate storage retention, Energies, 15(4), 1413, doi:10.3390/en15041413, 2022. |
| 2. | Levitin, G., L. Xing, and Y. Dai, Unrepairable system with single production unit and n failure-prone identical parallel storage units, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 222, 108437, doi:10.1016/j.ress.2022.108437, 2022. |
| 3. | Levitin, G., L. Xing, and Y. Dai, Minimizing mission cost for production system with unreliable storage, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 227, 108724, doi:10.1016/j.ress.2022.108724, 2022. |
| 4. | Levitin, G., L. Xing, and Y. Dai, Optimizing the maximum filling level of perfect storage in system with imperfect production unit, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 225, 108629, doi:10.1016/j.ress.2022.108629, 2022. |
| 5. | Levitin, G., L. Xing, and Y. Dai, Unrepairable system with consecutively used imperfect storage units, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 225, 108574, doi:10.1016/j.ress.2022.108574, 2022. |
| 6. | Ren, P., M. Stewardson, and M. Peel, A simple analytical method to assess multiple-priority water rights in carryover systems, Water Resources Research, 58(12), e2022WR032530, doi:10.1029/2022WR032530, 2022. |
| 7. | Santos Araújo, J. E., and A. B. Celeste, Explicit stochastic procedure for developing reservoir storage-yield-reliability-vulnerability relationships, Water Resources Management, doi:10.1007/s11269-024-03970-1, 2024. |
| 8. | Hidalgo, R., B. Chanalata, C. Ricardo, R. Chango, and C. Sarango, Impact of electricity generation by hydropower: Literature review and case study, Revista Ingeniería e Innovación del Futuro, 3(2), 36–51, doi:10.62465/riif.v3n2.2024.80, 2024. |
| 9. | Mylonas, N., C. Tzimopoulos, B. Papadopoulos, and N. Samarinas, Estimation of reservoir storage capacity using the Gould-Dincer formula with the aid of possibility theory, Hydrology, 11(10), 172, doi:10.3390/hydrology11100172, 2024. |
I. Tsoukalas, A. Efstratiadis, and C. Makropoulos, Building a puzzle to solve a riddle: A multi-scale disaggregation approach for multivariate stochastic processes with any marginal distribution and correlation structure, Journal of Hydrology, 575, 354–380, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.05.017, 2019.
The generation of hydrometeorological time series that exhibit a given probabilistic and stochastic behavior across multiple temporal levels, traditionally expressed in terms of specific statistical characteristics of the observed data, is a crucial task for risk-based water resources studies, and simultaneously a puzzle for the community of stochastics. The main challenge stems from the fact that the reproduction of a specific behavior at a certain temporal level does not imply the reproduction of the desirable behavior at any other level of aggregation. In this respect, we first introduce a pairwise coupling of Nataf-based stochastic models within a disaggregation scheme, and next we propose their puzzle-type configuration to provide a generic stochastic simulation framework for multivariate processes exhibiting any distribution and any correlation structure. Within case studies we demonstrate two characteristic configurations, i.e., a three-level one, operating at daily, monthly and annual basis, and a two-level one to disaggregate daily to hourly data. The first configuration is applied to generate correlated daily rainfall and runoff data at the river basin of Achelous, Western Greece, which preserves the stochastic behavior of the two processes at the three temporal levels. The second configuration disaggregates daily rainfall, obtained from a meteorological station at Germany, to hourly. The two studies reveal the ability of the proposed framework to represent the peculiar behavior of hydrometeorological processes at multiple temporal resolutions, as well as its flexibility on formulating generic simulation schemes.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1914/1/documents/A038_Building_a_puzzle_to_solve_a_riddle.pdf (16518 KB)
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Macian-Sorribes, H., J.-L. Molina, S. Zazo, and M. Pulido-Velázquez, Analysis of spatio-temporal dependence of inflow time series through Bayesian causal modelling, Journal of Hydrology, 597, 125722, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125722, 2021. |
| 2. | Wang, Q., J. Zhou, K. Huang, L. Dai, B. Jia, L. Chen, and H. Qin, A procedure for combining improved correlated sampling methods and a resampling strategy to generate a multi-site conditioned streamflow process, Water Resources Management, 35, 1011-1027, doi:10.1007/s11269-021-02769-8, 2021. |
| 3. | Brereton, R. G., P values and multivariate distributions: Non-orthogonal terms in regression models, Chemometrics and Intelligent Laboratory Systems, 210, 104264, doi:10.1016/j.chemolab.2021.104264, 2021. |
| 4. | Pouliasis, G., G. A. Torres-Alves, and O. Morales-Napoles, Stochastic modeling of hydroclimatic processes using vine copulas, Water, 13(16), 2156, doi:10.3390/w13162156, 2021. |
| 5. | Biondi, D., E. Todini, and A. Corina, A parsimonious post-processor for uncertainty evaluation of ensemble precipitation forecasts: An application to quantitative precipitation forecasts for civil protection purposes, Hydrology Research, 52(6), 1405-1422, doi:10.2166/nh.2021.045, 2021. |
| 6. | Jahangir, M. S., and J. Quilty, Temporal hierarchical reconciliation for consistent water resources forecasting across multiple timescales: An application to precipitation forecasting, Water Resources Research, 58(6), e2021WR031862, doi:10.1029/2021WR031862, 2022. |
| 7. | Wan Mazlan, W. A. S., and N. N. A. Tukimat, Comparative analyses on disaggregation methods for the rainfall projection, Water Resources Management, 37, 4195-4209, doi:10.1007/s11269-023-03546-5, 2023. |
| 8. | Zeng, J., B. Yu, X. Fu, and h. Hu, Multi-century flow reconstruction of the Lhasa River, China, Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 53, 101795, doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101795, 2024. |
A. Tegos, W. Schlüter, N. Gibbons, Y. Katselis, and A. Efstratiadis, Assessment of environmental flows from complexity to parsimony - Lessons from Lesotho, Water, 10 (10), 1293, doi:10.3390/w10101293, 2018.
Over the last decade, Environmental Flow Assessment (EFA) has focused scientific attention around heavily-modified hydrosystems, such as flow regulated releases downstream of dams. In this light, numerous approaches of varying complexity have been developed, the most holistic of which incorporate hydrological, hydraulic, biological and water quality inputs, as well as socioeconomic issues. Finding the optimal flow releases, informing policy and determining an operational framework are often the main focus. This work exhibits a simplification of the DRIFT framework, and is regarded as the first holistic EFA approach, consisting of three modules, namely hydrological, hydraulic and fish quality. A novel conceptual classification for fish quality is proposed, associating fish fauna requirements with hydraulic characteristics, exported by fish survey analyses. The new methodology was applied and validated successfully at three stream sites in Lesotho, where DRIFT was formerly employed.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1878/1/documents/water-10-01293.pdf (2633 KB)
See also: http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/10/10/1293/htm
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Yang, Z., K. Yang, L. Su, and H. Hu, The multi-objective operation for cascade reservoirs using MMOSFLA with emphasis on power generation and ecological benefit, Journal of Hydroinformatics, 21(2), 257-278, doi:10.2166/hydro.2019.064, 2019. |
| 2. | Langat, P. K., L. Kumar, and R. Koech, Identification of the most suitable probability distribution models for maximum, minimum, and mean streamflow, Water, 11, 734, doi:10.3390/w11040734, 2019. |
| 3. | Sahoo, B. B., R. Jha, A. Singh, A. and D. Kumar, Long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network for low-flow hydrological time series forecasting, Acta Geophysica, 67, 1471-1481, doi:10.1007/s11600-019-00330-1, 2019. |
| 4. | Ding, L., Q. Li, J. Tang, J. Wang, and X. Chen, Linking land use metrics measured in aquatic-terrestrial interfaces to water quality of reservoir-based water sources in Eastern China, Sustainability, 11(18), 4860, doi:10.3390/su11184860, 2019. |
| 5. | Koskinas, A., Stochastics and ecohydrology: A study in optimal reservoir design, Dams and Reservoirs, 30(2), 53-59, doi:10.1680/jdare.20.00009, 2020. |
| 6. | Jo, Y.-J., J.-H. Song, Y. Her, G. Provolo, J. Beom, M. Jeung, Y.-J. Kim, S.-H. Yoo, and K.-S. Yoon, Assessing the potential of agricultural reservoirs as the source of environmental flow, Water; 13(4), 508, doi:10.3390/w13040508, 2021. |
| 7. | Wu, M., H. Wu, A. T. Warner, H. Li, and Z. Liu, Informing environmental flow planning through landscape evolution modeling in heavily modified urban rivers in China, Water, 13(22), 3244, doi:10.3390/w13223244, 2021. |
| 8. | Hoque, M. M., A. Islam, and S. Ghosh, Environmental flow in the context of dams and development with special reference to the Damodar Valley Project, India: a review, Sustainable Water Resources Management, 8, 62, doi:10.1007/s40899-022-00646-9, 2022. |
| 9. | Owusu, A., M. Mul, M. Strauch, P. van der Zaag, M. Volk, and J. Slinger, The clam and the dam: A Bayesian belief network approach to environmental flow assessment in a data scarce region, Science of The Total Environment, 810, 151315, doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151315, 2022. |
| 10. | Liu, S., Q. Zhang, Y. Xie, P. Xu, and H. Du, Evaluation of minimum and suitable ecological flows of an inland basin in China considering hydrological variation, Water, 15(4), 649, doi:10.3390/w15040649, 2023. |
| 11. | Nasiri Khiavi, A., R. Mostafazadeh, and F. Ghanbari Talouki, Using game theory algorithm to identify critical watersheds based on environmental flow components and hydrological indicators, Environment, Development and Sustainability, doi:10.1007/s10668-023-04390-8, 2024. |
| 12. | Bănăduc, D., A. Curtean-Bănăduc, S. Barinova, V. L. Lozano, S. Afanasyev, T. Leite, P. Branco, D. F. Gomez Isaza, J. Geist, A. Tegos, H. Olosutean, and K. Cianfanglione, Multi-interacting natural and anthropogenic stressors on freshwater ecosystems: Their current status and future prospects for 21st century, Water, 16(11), 1483, doi:10.3390/w16111483, 2024. |
| 13. | Tegos, A., A Monte Carlo model for WWTP effluent flow treatment through enhanced willow evapotranspiration, Hydrology, 11(9), 134, doi:10.3390/hydrology11090134, 2024. |
| 14. | Kumre, S. K., S. Swain, K. Amrit, S. K. Mishra, and A. Pandey, Linking curve number with environmental flows: a novel approach, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, doi:10.1007/s11356-024-35303-5, 2024. |
E. Klousakou, M. Chalakatevaki, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, R. Ioannidis, G. Karakatsanis, A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, R. Tomani, E. Chardavellas, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A preliminary stochastic analysis of the uncertainty of natural processes related to renewable energy resources, Advances in Geosciences, 45, 193–199, doi:10.5194/adgeo-45-193-2018, 2018.
The ever-increasing energy demand has led to overexploitation of fossil fuels deposits, while renewables offer a viable alternative. Since renewable energy resources derive from phenomena related to either atmospheric or geophysical processes, unpredictability is inherent to renewable energy systems. An innovative and simple stochastic tool, the climacogram, was chosen to explore the degree of unpredictability. By applying the climacogram across the related timeseries and spatial-series it was feasible to identify the degree of unpredictability in each process through the Hurst parameter, an index that quantifies the level of uncertainty. All examined processes display a Hurst parameter larger than 0.5, indicating increased uncertainty on the long term. This implies that only through stochastic analysis may renewable energy resources be reliably manageable and cost efficient. In this context, a pilot application of a hybrid renewable energy system in the Greek island of Astypalaia is discussed, for which we show how the uncertainty (in terms of variability) of the input hydrometeorological processes alters the uncertainty of the output energy values.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1864/1/documents/adgeo-45-193-2018.pdf (559 KB)
See also: https://www.adv-geosci.net/45/193/2018/
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Kaps, C., S. Marinesi, and S. Netessine, When should the off-grid sun shine at night? Optimum renewable generation and energy storage investment, Management Science, 69(12), 7633-7650, doi:10.1287/mnsc.2021.04129, 2023. |
| 2. | Adewumi, A., C. E. Okoli, F. O. Usman, K. A. Olu-lawal, and O. T. Soyombo, Reviewing the impact of AI on renewable energy efficiency and management, International Journal of Science and Research Archive, 11(01), 1518–1527, doi:10.30574/ijsra.2024.11.1.0245, 2024. |
| 3. | #Awudu, S., A. K. Yeliawati, and M. Sari, Unveiling the green tapestry: Exploring the influence of green budget tagging on the nexus of fiscal policy sustainability and green budgeting practices in metropolitan municipal and district assemblies in Ghana, Proceedings of the 8th Global Conference on Business, Management, and Entrepreneurship (GCBME 2023), 186-192, Atlantic Press, 2024. |
K. Risva, D. Nikolopoulos, A. Efstratiadis, and I. Nalbantis, A framework for dry period low flow forecasting in Mediterranean streams, Water Resources Management, 32 (15), 4911–1432, doi:10.1007/s11269-018-2060-z, 2018.
The objective of this article is to provide a simple and effective tool for low flow forecasting up to six months ahead, with minimal data requirements, i.e. flow observations retrieved at the end of wet period (first half of April, for the Mediterranean region). The core of the methodological framework is the exponential decay function, while the typical split-sample approach for model calibration, which is known to suffer from the dependence on the selection of the calibration data set, is enhanced by introducing the so-called Randomly Selected Multiple Subsets (RSMS) calibration procedure. Moreover, we introduce and employ a modified efficiency metric, since in this modelling context the classical Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency yields unrealistically high performance. The proposed framework is evaluated at 25 Mediterranean rivers of different scales and flow dynamics, including streams with intermittent regime. Initially, signal processing and data smoothing techniques are applied to the raw hydrograph, in order to cut-off high flows that are due to flood events occurring in dry periods, and allow for keeping the decaying form of the baseflow component. We then employ the linear reservoir model to extract the annually varying recession coefficient, and, then, attempt to explain its median value (over a number of years) on the basis of typical hydrological indices and the catchment area. Next, we run the model in forecasting mode, by considering that the recession coefficient of each dry period ahead is a linear function of the observed flow at the end of the wet period. In most of the examined catchments, the model exhibits very satisfactory predictive capacity and is also robust, as indicated by the limited variability of the optimized model parameters across randomly selected calibration sets.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1861/2/documents/Risva2018_Article_AFrameworkForDryPeriodLowFlowF.pdf (2268 KB)
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Tsihrintzis, V. A., and H. Vangelis, Water resources and environment, Water Resources Management, 32(15), 4813-4817, doi:10.1007/s11269-018-2164-5, 2018. |
| 2. | Kapetas, L., N. Kazakis, K. Voudouris, and D. McNicholl, Water allocation and governance in multi-stakeholder environments: Insight from Axios Delta, Greece, Science of The Total Environment, 695, 133831, doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133831, 2019. |
| 3. | Azarnivand, A., M. Camporese, S. Alaghmand, and E. Dal, Simulated response of an intermittent stream to rainfall frequency patterns, Hydrological Processes, 34(3), 615-632, doi:10.1002/hyp.13610, 2020. |
| 4. | Lee, D., H. Kim, I. Jung, and J. Yoon, Monthly reservoir inflow forecasting for dry period using teleconnection indices: A statistical ensemble approach, Applied Sciences, 10(10), 3470, doi:10.3390/app10103470, 2020. |
| 5. | Nicolle, P., F. Besson, O. Delaigue, P. Etchevers, D. François, M. Le Lay, C. Perrin, F. Rousset, D. Thiéry, F. Tilmant, C. Magand, T. Leurent, and É. Jacob, PREMHYCE: An operational tool for low-flow forecasting, Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 383, 381-389, doi:10.5194/piahs-383-381-2020, 2020. |
| 6. | Tilmant, F., P. Nicolle, F. Bourgin, F. Besson, O. Delaigue, P. Etchevers, D. François, M. Le Lay, C. Perrin, F. Rousset, D. Thiéry, C. Magand, T. Leurent, et É. Jacob, PREMHYCE : un outil opérationnel pour la prévision des étiages, La Houille Blanche, 5, 37-44, doi:10.1051/lhb/2020043, 2020. |
| 7. | Singh, S. K., and G. A. Griffiths, Prediction of streamflow recession curves in gauged and ungauged basins, Water Resources Research, 57(11), e2021WR030618, doi:10.1029/2021WR030618, 2021. |
| 8. | Orta, S., and H. Aksoy, Development of low flow duration-frequency curves by hybrid frequency analysis, Water Resources Management, 36, 1521-1534, doi:10.1007/s11269-022-03095-3, 2022. |
| 9. | Kadu, A., and B. Biswal, A model combination approach for improving streamflow prediction, Water Resources Management, 36, 5945-5959, doi:10.1007/s11269-022-03336-5, 2022. |
| 10. | Wang, F., R. Men, S. Yan, Z. Wang, H. Lai, K. Feng, S. Gao, Y. Li, W. Guo, and Q. Tian, Identification of the runoff evolutions and driving forces during the dry season in the Xijiang river basin, Water, 16(16), 2317, doi:10.3390/w16162317, 2024. |
| 11. | Bertels, D., L. Breugelmans, and P. Willems, Real-time integrated water availability – Salt intrusion modelling and management during droughts, Journal of Hydrology, 642, 131894, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131894, 2024. |
I. Tsoukalas, S.M. Papalexiou, A. Efstratiadis, and C. Makropoulos, A cautionary note on the reproduction of dependencies through linear stochastic models with non-Gaussian white noise, Water, 10 (6), 771, doi:10.3390/w10060771, 2018.
Since the prime days of stochastic hydrology back in 1960s, autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) models (as well as their extensions) have been widely used to simulate hydrometeorological processes. Initially, AR(1) or Markovian models with Gaussian noise prevailed due to their conceptual and mathematical simplicity. However, the ubiquitous skewed behavior of most hydrometeorological processes, particularly at fine time scales, necessitated the generation of synthetic time series to also reproduce higher-order moments. In this respect, the former schemes were enhanced to preserve skewness through the use of non-Gaussian white noise— a modification attributed to Thomas and Fiering (TF). Although preserving higher-order moments to approximate a distribution is a limited and potentially risky solution, the TF approach has become a common choice in operational practice. In this study, almost half a century after its introduction, we reveal an important flaw that spans over all popular linear stochastic models that employ non-Gaussian white noise. Focusing on the Markovian case, we prove mathematically that this generating scheme provides bounded dependence patterns, which are both unrealistic and inconsistent with the observed data. This so-called “envelope behavior” is amplified as the skewness and correlation increases, as demonstrated on the basis of real-world and hypothetical simulation examples.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1848/1/documents/water-10-00771.pdf (14101 KB)
See also: http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/10/6/771
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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| 5. | Wang, Q., J. Zhou, K. Huang, L. Dai, B. Jia, L. Chen, and H. Qin, A procedure for combining improved correlated sampling methods and a resampling strategy to generate a multi-site conditioned streamflow process, Water Resources Management, 35, 1011-1027, doi:10.1007/s11269-021-02769-8, 2021. |
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| 7. | Pouliasis, G., G. A. Torres-Alves, and O. Morales-Napoles, Stochastic modeling of hydroclimatic processes using vine copulas, Water, 13(16), 2156, doi:10.3390/w13162156, 2021. |
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G. Papaioannou, A. Efstratiadis, L. Vasiliades, A. Loukas, S.M. Papalexiou, A. Koukouvinos, I. Tsoukalas, and P. Kossieris, An operational method for Floods Directive implementation in ungauged urban areas, Hydrology, 5 (2), 24, doi:10.3390/hydrology5020024, 2018.
An operational framework for flood risk assessment in ungauged urban areas is developed within the implementation of the EU Floods Directive in Greece, and demonstrated for Volos metropolitan area, central Greece, which is frequently affected by intense storms causing fluvial flash floods. A scenario-based approach is applied, accounting for uncertainties of key modeling aspects. This comprises extreme rainfall analysis, resulting to spatially-distributed Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) relationships and their confidence intervals, and flood simulations, through the SCS-CN method and the unit hydrograph theory, producing design hydrographs at the sub-watershed scale, for several soil moisture conditions. The propagation of flood hydrographs and the mapping of inundated areas are employed by the HEC-RAS 2D model, with flexible mesh size, by representing the resistance caused by buildings through the local elevation rise method. For all hydrographs, upper and lower estimates on water depths, flow velocities and inundation areas are estimated, for varying roughness coefficient values. The methodology is validated against the flood event of the 9th October 2006, using observed flood inundation data. Our analyses indicate that although typical engineering practices for ungauged basins are subject to major uncertainties, the hydrological experience may counterbalance the missing information, thus ensuring quite realistic outcomes.
Remarks:
This article won the Hydrology Best Paper Award for 2020 (https://www.mdpi.com/journal/hydrology/awards/850)
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1829/1/documents/hydrology-05-00024_Idnk8fW.pdf (5243 KB)
Additional material:
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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E. Michailidi, S. Antoniadi, A. Koukouvinos, B. Bacchi, and A. Efstratiadis, Timing the time of concentration: shedding light on a paradox, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 63 (5), 721–740, doi:10.1080/02626667.2018.1450985, 2018.
From the origins of hydrology, the time of concentration, tc, has been conventionally tackled as constant quantity. However, theoretical proof and empirical evidence imply that tc exhibits significant variability against rainfall, making its definition and estimation a hydrological paradox. Adopting the assumptions of the Rational method and the kinematic approach, an effective procedure in a GIS environment for estimating the travel time across a catchment’s longest flow path is provided. By applying it in 30 Mediterranean basins, it is illustrated that tc is a negative power function of excess rainfall intensity. Regional formulas are established to infer its multiplier (unit time of concentration) and exponent from abstract geomorphological information, which are validated against observed data and theoretical literature outcomes. Besides offering a fast and easy solution to the paradox, we highlight the necessity for implementing the varying tc concept within hydrological modelling, signalling a major shift from current engineering practices.
Remarks:
2020 Tison Award, by International Association of Hydrological Sciences, awared to young hydrologists Eleni Maria Michailidi and Sylvia Antoniadi (https://iahs.info/About-IAHS/Competition--Events/Tison-Award/Tison-Award-winners/EMichailidi-SAntoniadi/)
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1777/2/documents/Timing_the_time_of_concentration_shedding_light_on_a_paradox_nNWG5Fq.pdf (2538 KB)
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In this paper, a new methodology for delineating Hydrological Response Units (HRUs), based on the Curve Number (CN) concept, is presented. Initially, a semi-automatic procedure in a GIS environment is used to produce basin maps of distributed CN values as the product of the three classified layers, soil permeability, land use/land cover characteristics and drainage capacity. The map of CN values is used in the context of model parameterization, in order to identify the essential number and spatial extent of HRUs and, consequently, the number of control variables of the calibration problem. The new approach aims at reducing the subjectivity introduced by the definition of HRUs and providing parsimonious modelling schemes. In particular, the CN-based parameterization (1) allows the user to assign as many parameters as can be supported by the available hydrological information, (2) associates the model parameters with anticipated basin responses, as quantified in terms of CN classes across HRUs, and (3) reduces the effort for model calibration, simultaneously ensuring good predictive capacity. The advantages of the proposed approach are demonstrated in the hydrological simulation of the Nedontas River Basin, Greece, where parameterizations of different complexities are employed in a recently improved version of the HYDROGEIOS model. A modelling experiment with a varying number of HRUs, where the parameter estimation problem was handled through automatic optimization, showed that the parameterization with three HRUs, i.e., equal to the number of flow records, ensured the optimal performance. Similarly, tests with alternative HRU configurations confirmed that the optimal scores, both in calibration and validation, were achieved by the CN-based approach, also resulting in parameters values across the HRUs that were in agreement with their physical interpretation.
Full text:
See also: http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/10/2/194
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I. Tsoukalas, A. Efstratiadis, and C. Makropoulos, Stochastic periodic autoregressive to anything (SPARTA): Modelling and simulation of cyclostationary processes with arbitrary marginal distributions, Water Resources Research, 54 (1), 161–185, WRCR23047, doi:10.1002/2017WR021394, 2018.
Stochastic models in hydrology traditionally aim at reproducing the empirically derived statistical characteristics of the observed data rather than any specific distribution model that attempts to describe the usually non-Gaussian statistical behavior of the associated processes. SPARTA (Stochastic Periodic AutoRegressive To Anything) offers an alternative and novel approach which allows the explicit representation of each process of interest with any distribution model, while simultaneously establishes dependence patterns that cannot be fully captured by the typical linear stochastic schemes. Cornerstone of the proposed approach is the Nataf joint-distribution model, which is related with the Gaussian copula, combined with Gaussian periodic autoregressive processes. In order to obtain the target stochastic structure, we have also developed a computationally simple and efficient algorithm, based on a hybrid Monte-Carlo procedure that is used to approximate the required equivalent correlation coefficients. Theoretical and practical benefits of the proposed method, contrasted to outcomes from widely used stochastic models, are demonstrated by means of real-world as well as hypothetical monthly simulation examples involving both univariate and multivariate time series.
Additional material:
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Papalexiou, S. M., Unified theory for stochastic modelling of hydroclimatic processes: Preserving marginal distributions, correlation structures, and intermittency, Advances in Water Resources, 115, 234-252, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2018.02.013, 2018. |
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| 3. | Marković, D., S. Ilić, D. Pavlović, J. Plavšić, and N. Ilich, Multivariate and multi-scale generator based on non-parametric stochastic algorithms, Journal of Hydroinformatics, 21(6), 1102-1117, doi:10.2166/hydro.2019.071, 2019. |
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| 8. | Demetriou, E., G. Mallouppas, and C.Hadjistassou, Embracing carbon neutral electricity and transportation sectors in Cyprus, Energy, 229, 120625, doi:10.1016/j.energy.2021.120625, 2021. |
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N. Malamos, I. L. Tsirogiannis, A. Tegos, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Spatial interpolation of potential evapotranspiration for precision irrigation purposes, European Water, 59, 303–309, 2017.
Precision irrigation constitutes a breakthrough for agricultural water management since it provides means to optimal water use. In recent years several applications of precision irrigation are implemented based on spatial data from different origins, i.e. meteorological stations networks, remote sensing data and in situ measurements. One of the factors affecting optimal irrigation system design and management is the daily potential evapotranspiration (PET). A commonly used approach is to estimate the daily PET for the representative day of each month during the irrigation period. In the present study, the implementation of the recently introduced non-parametric bilinear surface smoothing (BSS) methodology for spatial interpolation of daily PET is presented. The study area was the plain of Arta which is located at the Region of Epirus at the North West Greece. Daily PET was estimated according to the FAO Penman-Monteith methodology with data collected from a network of six agrometeorological stations, installed in early 2015 in selected locations throughout the study area. For exploration purposes, we produced PET maps for the Julian dates: 105, 135, 162, 199, 229 and 259, thus covering the entire irrigation period of 2015. Also, comparison and cross validation against the calculated FAO Penman-Monteith PET for each station, were performed between BSS and a commonly used interpolation method, i.e. inverse distance weighted (IDW). During the leave-one-out cross validation procedure, BSS yielded very good results, outperforming IDW. Given the simplicity of the BSS, its overall performance is satisfactory, providing maps that represent the spatial and temporal variation of daily PET.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1776/1/documents/EW_2017_59_41_2HOxTxv.pdf (4259 KB)
See also: http://ewra.net/ew/pdf/EW_2017_59_41.pdf
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| 1. | Ndiaye, P. M., A. Bodian, L. Diop, A. Deme, A. Dezetter, K. Djaman, and A. Ogilvie, Trend and sensitivity analysis of reference evapotranspiration in the Senegal river basin using NASA meteorological data, Water, 12(7), 1957, doi:10.3390/w12071957, 2020. |
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| 7. | Fotia, K., G. Nanos, N. Malamos, M. Giannelos, P. Mpeza, and I. Tsirogiannis, Water footprint and performance assessment of a table olive cultivar (Olea europaea L. “Konservolea”) under various irrigation strategies, Acta Horticulturae, 1373, 57-64, doi:10.17660/ActaHortic.2023.1373.9, 2023. |
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K. Risva, D. Nikolopoulos, A. Efstratiadis, and I. Nalbantis, A simple model for low flow forecasting in Mediterranean streams, European Water, 57, 337–343, 2017.
Low flows commonly occur in rivers during dry seasons within each year. They often concur with increased water demand which creates numerous water resources management problems. This paper seeks for simple yet efficient tools for low-flow forecasting, which are easy to implement, based on the adoption of an exponential decay model for the flow recession curve. A statistical attribute of flows preceding the start of the dry period is used as the starting flow. On the other hand, the decay rate (recession parameter) is assumed as a linear function of the starting flow. The two parameters of that function are time-invariant, and they are optimized over a reference time series representing the low flow component of the observed hydrographs. The methodology is tested in the basins of Achelous, Greece, Xeros and Peristerona, Cyprus, and Salso, Italy. Raw data are filtered by signal processing techniques which remove the effect of flood events occurring in dry periods, thus allow-ing the preservation of the decaying form of the flow recession curve. Results indicate that satisfac-tory low flow forecasts are possible for Mediterranean basins of different hydrological behaviour.
Remarks:
Conference paper published in Special Issue of European Water: "10th Word Congress on Water Resources and Environment".
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1753/1/documents/EW_2017_57_47.pdf (859 KB)
A. Tegos, N. Malamos, A. Efstratiadis, I. Tsoukalas, A. Karanasios, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Parametric modelling of potential evapotranspiration: a global survey, Water, 9 (10), 795, doi:10.3390/w9100795, 2017.
We present and validate a global parametric model of potential evapotranspiration (PET) with two parameters which are estimated through calibration, using as explanatory variables temperature and extraterrestrial radiation. The model and the parameters estimation approach were tested over the globe, using the FAO CLIMWAT database that provides monthly averaged values of meteorological inputs at 4300 locations worldwide. A preliminary analysis of these data allowed explaining the major drivers of PET over the globe and across seasons. Next, we developed an automatic optimization software tool to calibrate the model and provide point PET estimations against the given Penman-Monteith values. We also employed extended analysis of model inputs and outputs, including the production of global maps of optimized model parameters and associated performance metrics. Also, we employed interpolated values of the optimized parameters to validate the predictive capacity of our model against monthly meteorological time series, at several stations worldwide. The results were very encouraging, since even with the use of abstract climatic information for model calibration and the use of interpolated parameters as local predictors, the model generally ensures reliable PET estimations. In few cases the model performs poorly in estimating the reference PET, due to irregular interactions between temperature and extraterrestrial radiation, as well as because the associated processes are influenced by additional drivers, e.g. relative humidity and wind speed. However, the analysis of the residuals showed that the model is consistent in terms of parameters estimation and model validation. The provided parameters maps allow the direct use of the parametric model wherever in the world, providing PET estimates in case of missing data, that can be further improved even with a short term acquisition of meteorological data.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1738/2/documents/water-09-00795.pdf (6428 KB)
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See also: http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/9/10/795
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Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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K. Papoulakos, G. Pollakis, Y. Moustakis, A. Markopoulos, T. Iliopoulou, P. Dimitriadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Efstratiadis, Simulation of water-energy fluxes through small-scale reservoir systems under limited data availability, Energy Procedia, 125, 405–414, doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2017.08.078, 2017.
We present a stochastic approach accounting for input uncertainties within water-energy simulations. The stochastic paradigm, which allows for quantifying the inherent uncertainty of hydrometeorological processes, becomes even more crucial in case of missing or inadequate information. Our scheme uses simplified conceptual models which are subject to significant uncertainties, to generate the inputs of the overall simulation problem. The methodology is tested in a hypothetical hybrid renewable energy system across the small Aegean island of Astypalaia, comprising a pumped-storage reservoir serving multiple water uses, where both inflows and demands are regarded as random variables as result of stochastic inputs and parameters.
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Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1732/1/documents/energy_proc_paper.pdf (2324 KB)
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P. Dimitriadis, A. Tegos, A. Oikonomou, V. Pagana, A. Koukouvinos, N. Mamassis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Efstratiadis, Comparative evaluation of 1D and quasi-2D hydraulic models based on benchmark and real-world applications for uncertainty assessment in flood mapping, Journal of Hydrology, 534, 478–492, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.01.020, 2016.
One-dimensional and quasi-two-dimensional hydraulic freeware models (HEC-RAS, LISFLOOD-FP and FLO-2d) are widely used for flood inundation mapping. These models are tested on a benchmark test with a mixed rectangular-triangular channel cross section. Using a Monte-Carlo approach, we employ extended sensitivity analysis by simultaneously varying the input discharge, longitudinal and lateral gradients and roughness coefficients, as well as the grid cell size. Based on statistical analysis of three output variables of interest, i.e. water depths at the inflow and outflow locations and total flood volume, we investigate the uncertainty enclosed in different model configurations and flow conditions, without the influence of errors and other assumptions on topography, channel geometry and boundary conditions. Moreover, we estimate the uncertainty associated to each input variable and we compare it to the overall one. The outcomes of the benchmark analysis are further highlighted by applying the three models to real-world flood propagation problems, in the context of two challenging case studies in Greece.
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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| 185. | #Abbaszadeh, P., K. Gavahi, and H. Moradkhani, Towards a robust hydrologic data assimilation system for hurricane-induced river flow forecasting, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, doi:10.5194/hess-2024-209, 2024. |
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I. Tsoukalas, P. Kossieris, A. Efstratiadis, and C. Makropoulos, Surrogate-enhanced evolutionary annealing simplex algorithm for effective and efficient optimization of water resources problems on a budget, Environmental Modelling and Software, 77, 122–142, doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.12.008, 2016.
In water resources optimization problems, the objective function usually presumes to first run a simulation model and then evaluate its outputs. However, long simulation times may pose significant barriers to the procedure. Often, to obtain a solution within a reasonable time, the user has to substantially restrict the allowable number of function evaluations, thus terminating the search much earlier than required. A promising strategy to address these shortcomings is the use of surrogate modeling techniques. Here we introduce the Surrogate-Enhanced Evolutionary Annealing-Simplex (SEEAS) algorithm that couples the strengths of surrogate modeling with the effectiveness and efficiency of the evolutionary annealing-simplex method. SEEAS combines three different optimization approaches (evolutionary search, simulated annealing, downhill simplex). Its performance is benchmarked against other surrogate-assisted algorithms in several test functions and two water resources applications (model calibration, reservoir management). Results reveal the significant potential of using SEEAS in challenging optimization problems on a budget.
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1587/2/documents/SEEAS_paper.pdf (4310 KB)
Additional material:
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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| 5. | Salazar, J. Z., P. M. Reed, J. D. Quinn, M. Giuliani, and A. Castelletti, Balancing exploration, uncertainty and computational demands in many objective reservoir optimization, Advances in Water Resources, 109, 196-210, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2017.09.014, 2017. |
| 6. | Christelis, V., and A. Mantoglou, Physics-based and data-driven surrogate models for pumping optimization of coastal aquifers, European Water, 57, 481–488, 2017. |
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| 8. | Christelis, V., R. G. Regis, and A. Mantoglou, Surrogate-based pumping optimization of coastal aquifers under limited computational budgets, Journal of Hydroinformatics, 20(1), 164-176, doi:10.2166/hydro.2017.063, 2018. |
| 9. | Christelis, V., and A. G. Hughes, Metamodel-assisted analysis of an integrated model composition: an example using linked surface water – groundwater models, Environmental Modelling and Software, 107, 298-306, doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.05.004, 2018. |
| 10. | Zischg, A. P., G. Felder, M. Mosimann, V. Röthlisberger, and R. Weingartner, Extending coupled hydrological-hydraulic model chains with a surrogate model for the estimation of flood losses, Environmental Modelling and Software, 108, 174-185, doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.08.009, 2018. |
| 11. | Christelis, V., and A. Mantoglou, Pumping optimization of coastal aquifers using seawater intrusion models of variable-fidelity and evolutionary algorithms, Water Resources Management, 33(2), 555-558, doi:10.1007/s11269-018-2116-0, 2019. |
| 12. | Thandayutham, K., L. K. Mishra, and A. Samad, Optimal design of a marine current turbine using CFD and FEA, Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference in Ocean Engineering (ICOE2018), K. Murali, V. Sriram, A. Samad, N. Saha (editors), Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering, 23, 675-690, doi:10.1007/978-981-13-3134-3, 2019. |
| 13. | Christelis, V., G. Kopsiaftis, and A. Mantoglou, Performance comparison of multiple and single surrogate models for pumping optimization of coastal aquifers, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 64(3), 336-349, doi:10.1080/02626667.2019.1584400, 2019. |
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| 15. | Huot, P.-L., A. Poulin, C. Audet, and S. Alarie, A hybrid optimization approach for efficient calibration of computationally intensive hydrological models, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 64(9), 1204-1222, doi:10.1080/02626667.2019.1624922, 2019. |
| 16. | Jahandideh-Tehrani, M., O. Bozorg-Haddad, and H. A. Loáiciga, Application of non-animal–inspired evolutionary algorithms to reservoir operation: an overview, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 191:439, doi:10.1007/s10661-019-7581-2, 2019. |
| 17. | Sandoval, S., and J.-L. Bertrand-Krajewski, From marginal to conditional probability functions of parameters in a conceptual rainfall-runoff model: an event-based approach, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 64(11), 1340-1350, doi:10.1080/02626667.2019.1635696, 2019. |
| 18. | Zhao, C. S., T. L. Pan, J. Xi, S. T. Yang, J. Zhao, X. J. Gan, L. P. Hou, and S. Y. Ding, Streamflow calculation for medium-to-small rivers in data scarce inland areas, Science of The Total Environment, 693, 133571, doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.377, 2019. |
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| 28. | Kopsiaftis, G., M. Kaselimi, E. Protopapadakis, A. Voulodimos, A. Doulamis, N. Doulamis, and A. Mantoglou, Performance comparison of physics-based and machine learning assisted multi-fidelity methods for the management of coastal aquifer systems, Frontiers in Water, 5, 1195029, doi:10.3389/frwa.2023.1195029, 2023. |
| 29. | Christelis, V., G. Kopsiaftis. R. G. Regis, and A. Mantoglou, An adaptive multi-fidelity optimization framework based on co-Kriging surrogate models and stochastic sampling with application to coastal aquifer management, Advances in Water Resources, 180, 104537, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2023.104537, 2023. |
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A. Tegos, A. Efstratiadis, N. Malamos, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Evaluation of a parametric approach for estimating potential evapotranspiration across different climates, Agriculture and Agricultural Science Procedia, 4, 2–9, doi:10.1016/j.aaspro.2015.03.002, 2015.
Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is key input in water resources, agricultural and environmental modelling. For many decades, numerous approaches have been proposed for the consistent estimation of PET at several time scales of interest. The most recognized is the Penman-Monteith formula, which is yet difficult to apply in data-scarce areas, since it requires simultaneous observations of four meteorological variables (temperature, sunshine duration, humidity, wind velocity). For this reason, parsimonious models with minimum input data requirements are strongly preferred. Typically, these have been developed and tested for specific hydroclimatic conditions, but when they are applied in different regimes they provide much less reliable (and in some cases misleading) estimates. Therefore, it is essential to develop generic methods that remain parsimonious, in terms of input data and parameterization, yet they also allow for some kind of local adjustment of their parameters, through calibration. In this study we present a recent parametric formula, based on a simplified formulation of the original Penman-Monteith expression, which only requires mean daily or monthly temperature data. The method is evaluated using meteorological records from different areas worldwide, at both the daily and monthly time scales. The outcomes of this extended analysis are very encouraging, as indicated by the substantially high validation scores of the proposed approach across all examined data sets. In general, the parametric model outperforms well-established methods of the everyday practice, since it ensures optimal approximation of potential evapotranspiration.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1549/1/documents/IRLA_paper.pdf (560 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aaspro.2015.03.002
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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| 5. | Nadyozhina, E. D., I. M. Shkolnik, A. V. Sternzat, B. N. Egorov, and A. A. Pikaleva, Evaporation from irrigated lands in arid regions as inferred from the regional climate model and atmospheric boundary layer model simulations, Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 43(6), 404-411, doi:10.3103/S1068373918060080, 2018. |
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A. Efstratiadis, I. Nalbantis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrological modelling of temporally-varying catchments: Facets of change and the value of information, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 60 (7-8), 1438–1461, doi:10.1080/02626667.2014.982123, 2015.
River basins are by definition temporally varying systems: changes are apparent at every temporal scale, in terms of changing meteorological inputs and catchment characteristics, respectively due to inherently uncertain natural processes and anthropogenic interventions. In an operational context, the ultimate goal of hydrological modelling is predicting responses of the basin under conditions that are similar or different from those observed in the past. Since water management studies require that anthropogenic effects are considered known and a long hypothetical period is simulated, the combined use of stochastic models, for generating the inputs, and deterministic models that also represent the human interventions in modified basins, is found to be a powerful approach for providing realistic and statistically consistent simulations (in terms of product moments and correlations, at multiple time scales, and long-term persistence). The proposed framework is investigated on the Ferson Creek basin (USA) that exhibits significantly growing urbanization during the last 30 years. Alternative deterministic modelling options include a lumped water balance model with one time-varying parameter and a semi-distributed scheme based on the concept of hydrological response units. Model inputs and errors are respectively represented through linear and non-linear stochastic models. The resulting nonlinear stochastic framework maximizes the exploitation of the existing information, by taking advantage of the calibration protocol used in this issue.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.982123
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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| 11. | #Christelis, V., V. Bellos, and G. Tsakiris, Employing surrogate modelling for the calibration of a 2D flood simulation model, Sustainable Hydraulics in the Era of Global Change: Proceedings of the 4th IAHR Europe Congress (Liege, Belgium, 27-29 July 2016), A. S. Erpicum, M. Pirotton, B. Dewals, P. Archambeau (editors), CRC Press, 2016. |
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A. Efstratiadis, Y. Dialynas, S. Kozanis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A multivariate stochastic model for the generation of synthetic time series at multiple time scales reproducing long-term persistence, Environmental Modelling and Software, 62, 139–152, doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.08.017, 2014.
A time series generator is presented, employing a robust three-level multivariate scheme for stochastic simulation of correlated processes. It preserves the essential statistical characteristics of historical data at three time scales (annual, monthly, daily), using a disaggregation approach. It also reproduces key properties of hydrometeorological and geophysical processes, namely the long-term persistence (Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour), the periodicity and intermittency. Its efficiency is illustrated through two case studies in Greece. The first aims to generate monthly runoff and rainfall data at three reservoirs of the hydrosystem of Athens. The second involves the generation of daily rainfall for flood simulation at five rain gauges. In the first emphasis is given to long-term persistence – a dominant characteristic in the management of large-scale hydrosystems, comprising reservoirs with carry-over storage capacity. In the second we highlight to the consistent representation of intermittency and asymmetry of daily rainfall, and the distribution of annual daily maxima.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.08.017
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
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A. Efstratiadis, A. D. Koussis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, Flood design recipes vs. reality: can predictions for ungauged basins be trusted?, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 14, 1417–1428, doi:10.5194/nhess-14-1417-2014, 2014.
Despite the great scientific and technological advances in flood hydrology, everyday engineering practices still follow simplistic approaches that are easy to formally implement in ungauged areas. In general, these "recipes" have been developed many decades ago, based on field data from typically few experimental catchments. However, many of them have been neither updated nor validated across all hydroclimatic and geomorphological conditions. This has an obvious impact on the quality and reliability of hydrological studies, and, consequently, on the safety and cost of the related flood protection works. Preliminary results, based on historical flood data from Cyprus and Greece, indicate that a substantial revision of many aspects of flood engineering procedures is required, including the regionalization formulas as well as the modelling concepts themselves. In order to provide a consistent design framework and to ensure realistic predictions of the flood risk (a key issue of the 2007/60/EU Directive) in ungauged basins, it is necessary to rethink the current engineering practices. In this vein, the collection of reliable hydrological data would be essential for re-evaluating the existing "recipes", taking into account local peculiarities, and for updating the modelling methodologies as needed.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1413/7/documents/nhess-14-1417-2014.pdf (207 KB)
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A. Efstratiadis, A. Tegos, A. Varveris, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Assessment of environmental flows under limited data availability – Case study of the Acheloos River, Greece, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3-4), 731–750, doi:10.1080/02626667.2013.804625, 2014.
The lower course of Acheloos River is an important hydrosystem of Greece, heavily modified by a cascade of four hydropower dams, which is now being extended by two more dams in the upper course. The design of the dams and hydropower facilities that are in operation has not considered any environmental criteria. However, in the last fifty years, numerous methodologies have been proposed to assess the negative impacts of such projects to both the abiotic and biotic environment, and to provide decision support towards establishing appropriate constraints on their operation, typically in terms of minimum flow requirements. In this study, seeking for a more environmental-friendly operation of the hydrosystem, we investigate the outflow policy from the most downstream dam, examining alternative environmental flow approaches. Accounting for data limitations, we recommend the Basic Flow Method, which is parsimonious and suitable for Mediterranean rivers, whose flows exhibit strong variability across seasons. We also show that the wetted perimeter – discharge method, which is an elementary hydraulic approach, provides consistent results, even without using any flow data. Finally, we examine the adaptation of the proposed flow policy (including artificial flooding) to the real-time hydropower generation schedule, and the management of the resulting conflicts.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.804625
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
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M. Rianna, A. Efstratiadis, F. Russo, F. Napolitano, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A stochastic index method for calculating annual flow duration curves in intermittent rivers, Irrigation and Drainage, 62 (S2), 41–49, doi:10.1002/ird.1803, 2013.
Flow duration curves are useful tools to estimate available surface water resources, at the basin scale. These represent the percentage of time during which discharge values are exceeded, irrespective of their temporal sequence. Annual flow duration curves are useful tools for evaluating all flow quantiles of a river and their confidence intervals, by removing the effects of variability from year to year. However, these tools fail to represent the hydrological regime of ephemeral rivers, since they cannot account for zero flows. In this work we propose a technique for calculating annual flow duration curves and their standard deviation in the case of intermittent rivers. In particular, we propose a generalization of the stochastic index method, in which we use the concept of total probability and order statistics. The method is proposed to determine the conditional distribution of positive flows, for given probability dry, and is implemented on three catchments in Italy and Greece, with low (<5%) and high (>40%) frequency of zero flows, respectively.
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ird.1803
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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J. A. P. Pollacco, B. P. Mohanty, and A. Efstratiadis, Weighted objective function selector algorithm for parameter estimation of SVAT models with remote sensing data, Water Resources Research, 49 (10), 6959–6978, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20554, 2013.
The objective function of the inverse problem in Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) models can be expressed as the aggregation of two criteria, accounting for the uncertainties of surface soil moisture (θ) and evapotranspiration (ET), retrieved from remote sensing (RS). In this context, we formulate a Weighted Objective Function (WOF) with respect to model effective soil hydraulic parameters, comprising of two components for θ and ET, respectively, and a dimensionless coefficient w. Given that the sensitivity of θ is increased by omitting the periods when soil moisture decoupling occurs, we also introduce within the WOF a threshold, θd, which outlines the decoupling of the surface and root-zone moisture. The optimal values of w and θd are determined by using a novel framework, Weighted Objective Function Selector Algorithm (WOFSA). This performs numerical experiments, assuming known reference conditions. In particular, it solves the inverse problem for different sets of θ and ET, considering the uncertainties of retrieving them from RS, and then runs the hydrological model to obtain the simulated water fluxes and their residuals, ΔWF, against the reference responses. It estimates the two unknown variables, w and θd, by maximizing the linear correlation between the WOF and maximum ΔWF. The framework is tested using a modified Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant (SWAP) model, under 22 contrasting hydroclimatic scenarios. It is shown that for each texture class, w can be expressed as function of the average θ and ET-fraction, while that for all scenarios θd can be modeled as function of the average θ, average ET and standard deviation of ET. Based on the outcomes of this study, we also provide recommendations on the most suitable time period for soil moisture measurements for capturing its dynamics and thresholds. Finally, we propose the implementation of WOFSA within multiobjective calibration, as a generalized tool for recognizing robust solutions from the Pareto front.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1383/2/documents/WRR_paper.pdf (2717 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20554
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| 4. | Gong, W., Q. Duan, J. Li, C. Wang, Z. Di, Y. Dai, A. Ye, and C. Miao, Multi-objective parameter optimization of common land model using adaptive surrogate modelling, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2409–2425, doi:10.5194/hess-19-2409-2015, 2015. |
| 5. | Garg, N. K., and M. Gupta, Assessment of improved soil hydraulic parameters for soil water content simulation and irrigation scheduling, Irrigation Science, 33(4), 247-264, doi:10.1007/s00271-015-0463-7, 2015. |
| 6. | Larsen, M. A. D., J. C. Refsgaard, K. H. Jensen, M. B. Butts, S. Stisen, and M. Mollerup, Calibration of a distributed hydrology and land surface model using energy flux measurements, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 217, 74–88, doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.11.012, 2016. |
| 7. | #Gupta, M., P. K Srivastava, and T. Islam, Integrative use of near-surface satellite soil moisture and precipitation for estimation of improved irrigation scheduling parameters, Satellite Soil Moisture Retrieval: Techniques and Applications , P. K. Srivastava, G. Petropoulos, and Y. H. Kerr (editors), 271-288, doi:10.1016/B978-0-12-803388-3.00014-0, 2016. |
| 8. | Maurya, S., P. K. Srivastava, M. Gupta, T. Islam, and D. Han, Integrating soil hydraulic parameter and microwave precipitation with morphometric analysis for watershed prioritization, Water Resources Management, 30(14), 5385–5405, doi:10.1007/s11269-016-1494-4, 2016. |
| 9. | Fernández-Gálvez, J., J. A. P. Pollacco, L. Lilburne, S. McNeill, S. Carrick, L. Lassabatere, and R. Angulo-Jaramillo, Deriving physical and unique bimodal soil Kosugi hydraulic parameters from inverse modelling, Advances in Water Resources, 153, 103933, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2021.103933, 2021. |
| 10. | Bonneau, J., G. L. Kouyi, L. Lassabatere, and T. D. Fletcher, Field validation of a physically-based model for bioretention systems, Journal of Cleaner Production, 312, 127636, doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.127636, 2021. |
| 11. | Pollacco, J. A. P., J. Fernández-Gálvez, P. Ackerer, B. Belfort, L. Lassabatere, R. Angulo-Jaramillo, C. Rajanayaka, L. Lilburne, S. Carrick, and D. A. Peltzer, HyPix: 1D physically based hydrological model with novel adaptive time-stepping management and smoothing dynamic criterion for controlling Newton-Raphson step, Environmental Modelling & Software, 153, 105386, doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105386, 2022. |
| 12. | Pollacco, J. A. P., J. Fernández-Gálvez, C. Rajanayaka, S. C. Zammit, P. Ackerer, B. Belfort, L. Lassabatere, R. Angulo-Jaramillo, L. Lilburne, S. Carrick, and D. A. Peltzer, Multistep optimization of HyPix model for flexible vertical scaling of soil hydraulic parameters, Environmental Modelling & Software, 156, 105472, doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105472, 2022. |
| 13. | #Xu, C., G. Zhu, Y. Zhang, and K. Zhang, Comparing the impacts of single- and multi-objective optimization on the parameter estimation and performance of a land surface model, Hydrology and Earth System Science Discussions, doi:10.5194/hess-2024-121, 2024. |
N. Mamassis, A. Efstratiadis, and E. Apostolidou, Topography-adjusted solar radiation indices and their importance in hydrology, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (4), 756–775, doi:10.1080/02626667.2012.670703, 2012.
Solar radiation, direct and diffuse, is affected by surface characteristics, such as slope, aspect, altitude and shading. The paper examines the effects of topography on radiation, at multiple spatiotemporal scales, using suitable geometrical methods for the direct and diffuse components. Two indices are introduced for comparing the direct radiation received by areas at the same and different latitudes, respectively. To investigate the profile of direct radiation through the Greek territory, these are evaluated from hourly to annual basis, via GIS techniques. Moreover, different approaches are examined for estimating the actual global radiation at operational spatial scales (sub-basin and terrain), according to the available meteorological data. The study indicates that the errors of typical hydrometeorological modelling formulas, ignoring the topographic effects and the seasonal allocation of direct and diffuse radiation, depend on the spatial scale and they are non-uniformly distributed in time. In all cases, the estimations are improved by applying the proposed adjusting approaches. In particular, the adjustment of the measured global radiation ensures up to 10% increase of efficiency, while the modified Angström formula achieves slight (i.e. 2-4%) increase of efficiency and notable reduction of bias.
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2012.670703
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Kunkel, V., T. Wells, and G. R. Hancock, Soil temperature dynamics at the catchment scale, Geoderma, 273, 32–44, doi:10.1016/j.geoderma.2016.03.011, 2016. |
| 2. | Felicísimo Pérez, Á. M., and M.Á. Martín-Tardío, A method of downscaling temperature maps based on analytical hillshading for use in species distribution modelling, Cartography and Geographic Information Science, 45(4), 329-338, doi:10.1080/15230406.2017.1338620, 2018. |
| 3. | Frey, J., K. Kovach, S. Stemmler, and B. Koch, UAV photogrammetry of forests as a vulnerable process. A sensitivity analysis for a structure from motion RGB-image pipeline, Remote Sensing, 16(2), 912, doi:10.3390/rs10060912, 2018. |
| 4. | Aguilar, C., R. Pimentel, and M. J. Polo, Two decades of distributed global radiation time series across a mountainous semiarid area (Sierra Nevada, Spain), Earth System Science Data, 13, 1335-1359, doi:10.5194/essd-13-1335-2021, 2021. |
| 5. | Nepali, B. R., J. Skartveit, and C. B. Baniya, Impacts of slope aspects on altitudinal species richness and species composition of Narapani-Masina landscape, Arghakhanchi, West Nepal, Journal of Asia-Pacific Biodiversity, 14(3), 415-424, doi:10.1016/j.japb.2021.04.005, 2021. |
| 6. | Pisinaras V., F. Herrmann, A. Panagopoulos, E. Tziritis, I. McNamara, and F. Wendland, Fully distributed water balance modelling in large agricultural areas—The Pinios river basin (Greece) case study, Sustainability, 15(5), 4343, doi:10.3390/su15054343, 2023. |
| 7. | Masoodian, S. A., Estimation of surface solar energy budget over Iran, Journal of the Earth and Space Physics, 49(2), 503-516, doi:10.22059/jesphys.2023.348599.1007457, 2023. |
| 8. | Dani, R. S., and C. B. Baniya, Seedling potential of trees species along the elevational gradient in temperate hill forest of central Nepal, Journal of Forest Sciences, 21(4), 1329-1344, doi:10.1007/s11629-023-8323-z, 2024. |
| 9. | Akbar, G., P. Prajitno, Ariffudin, and N. Ananda, Multivariate imputation chained equation on solar radiation in automatic weather station, Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan IPA, 10(7), 3633–3639, doi:10.29303/jppipa.v10i7.7679, 2024. |
A. Efstratiadis, and K. Hadjibiros, Can an environment-friendly management policy improve the overall performance of an artificial lake? Analysis of a multipurpose dam in Greece, Environmental Science and Policy, 14 (8), 1151–1162, doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2011.06.001, 2011.
Taking as example a multipurpose dam in Greece, we wish to show that by following a rational operation policy, where the improvement of the broader environmental system becomes a high-priority target, it is possible to achieve a much more efficient allocation of its “traditional” water uses. In this context, we review the 50-year history of the Plastiras reservoir in central Greece, to highlight the multiple negative impacts from a non-systematic, abstraction-oriented, operation policy. This kind of management is contrasted to a hypothetical one, obtained through a multidisciplinary methodological framework that has been developed ten years ago, which aimed to compromise a number of conflicting water uses. This required establishing a minimum allowable level for agricultural abstractions and stabilising the annual releases for irrigation and drinking water supply. The criteria under study are, directly or indirectly, related to the water storage in the lake. Therefore, the key idea is to investigate the performance of each criterion with regard to the variability of the level, by examining alternative level vs. abstraction control rules. Thus, the quantity of water that would be yearly available is a function of the minimum level allowed and the desirable reliability. In fact, objective analysis indicates that the maintenance of the reservoir level as high as possible is necessary for the conservation of the quality of the lake’s landscape, for the development of tourist activity and also for providing drinking water of good quality. The advantages of the proposed framework are then exhibited through a back-analysis that focuses to the recent period. The implementation of this management policy not only would improve the water and landscape quality as well as the tourist perspectives, but also allow for a much more efficient planning of the agricultural and, under some premises, hydroelectric energy needs. Thus, the adoption of a constant annual release, irrespective of the recent sequence of inflows, may be beneficial for the long-term interests of all social groups and, therefore, conflicts among drinking water supply, tourism, landscape quality, irrigation and hydroelectric production would become less intense. Yet, the practice showed that a consensus between scientists, authorities and stakeholders for establishing the suggested policy is a considerably difficult task.
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2011.06.001
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Tajziehchi, S., S. M. Monavari, and A. Karbassi, An effective participatory-based method for dam social impact assessment, Polish Journal of Environmental Studies, 21(6), 1841-1848, 2012. |
| 2. | #Makrogianni, S., and K. Hadjibiros, Interdisciplinarity in environmental research: an analysis based on scientific publications, Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Environmental Science and Technology, CEST2013_0681, Athens, 2013. |
| 3. | #Shukla, P., Performance Evaluation of Conservation Programmes for Lakes of the Nainital Region, Research paper, 14 p., GRIN Verlag GmbH, 2014.#Shukla, P., Performance Evaluation of Conservation Programmes for Lakes of the Nainital Region, Research paper, 14 p., GRIN Verlag GmbH, 2014. |
| 4. | #Patsialis, T., I. Kougias, J. Ganoulis, and N. Theodossiou, Irrigation dams for renewable energy production, Economics of Water Management in Agriculture, Bournaris, T., J. Berbel, B. Manos, and D. Viaggi (editors), CRC Press, 2014. |
| 5. | Dias-Sardinha, I., and D. Ross, Perceived impact of the Alqueva dam on regional tourism development, Tourism Planning and Development, 12(3), 362-375, doi:10.1080/21568316.2014.988880, 2015. |
| 6. | Martin-Utrillas, M., F. Juan-Garcia, J. Canto-Perello, and Jorge Curiel-Esparza, Optimal infrastructure selection to boost regional sustainable economy, International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, 22(1), 30-38, doi:10.1080/13504509.2014.954023, 2015. |
| 7. | Khorasani, H., R. Kerachian, and S. Malakpour-Estalaki, Developing a comprehensive framework for eutrophication management in off-stream artificial lakes, Journal of Hydrology, 562, 103-124, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.04.052, 2018. |
| 8. | Rodrigues, C., and T. Fidélis, The integration of land use in public water reservoirs plans – A critical analysis of the regulatory approaches used for the protection of banks, Land Use Policy, 81, 762-775, doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.10.047, 2019. |
| 9. | Dash, S. S., D. R. Sena, U. Mandal, A. Kumar, G. Kumar, P. K. Mishra, and M. Rawat, A hydrological modelling-based approach for vulnerable area identification under changing climate scenarios, Journal of Water and Climate Change,12(2), 433-452, doi:10.2166/wcc.2020.202, 2021. |
| 10. | Tegos, A., A. Ziogas, V. Bellos, and A. Tzimas, Forensic hydrology: a complete reconstruction of an extreme flood event in data-scarce area, Hydrology, 9(5), 93, doi:10.3390/hydrology9050093, 2022. |
| 11. | Wang, M., Y. Wang, L. Duan, X. Liu, H. Jia, and B. Zheng, Estimating the pollutant loss rate based on the concentration process and landscape unit interactions: a case study of the Dianchi Lake Basin, Yunnan Province, China, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29, 77927-77944, doi:10.1007/s11356-022-19696-9, 2022. |
| 12. | Goufa, M., E. Makeroufas, M. Gerakari, E. Sarri, A. Ragkos, P. J. Bebeli, A. Balestrazzi, and E. Tani, Understanding the potential to increase adoption of orphan crops: The Case of Lathyrus spp. cultivation in Greece, Agronomy, 14(1), 108, doi:10.3390/agronomy14010108, 2024. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Christofides, A. Efstratiadis, G. G. Anagnostopoulos, and N. Mamassis, Scientific dialogue on climate: is it giving black eyes or opening closed eyes? Reply to “A black eye for the Hydrological Sciences Journal” by D. Huard, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56 (7), 1334–1339, doi:10.1080/02626667.2011.610759, 2011.
Remarks:
The full text is available at the journal's web site: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2011.610759
Huard's Discussion can be accessed again from the journal's web site: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2011.610758
Weblog discussions can be seen in Climate Science, ABC News Watch, Fabius Maximus, Itia.
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1140/1/documents/2011HSJ_OpeningClosedEyes.pdf (88 KB)
Additional material:
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Jiang, P., M. R. Gautam, J. Zhu and Z. Yu, How well do the GCMs/RCMs capture the multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation in the Southwestern United States?, Journal of Hydrology, 479, 75-85, 2013. |
| 2. | Chun, K. P., H. S. Wheater, and C. Onof, Comparison of drought projections using two UK weather generators, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58(2), 1–15, 2013. |
| 3. | #Ranzi, R., Influence of climate and anthropogenic feedbacks on the hydrological cycle, water management and engineering, Proceedings of 2013 IAHR World Congress, 2013. |
| 4. | Kundzewicz, Z.W., S. Kanae, S. I. Seneviratne, J. Handmer, N. Nicholls, P. Peduzzi, R. Mechler, L. M. Bouweri, N. Arnell, K. Mach, R. Muir-Wood, G. R. Brakenridge, W. Kron, G. Benito, Y. Honda, K. Takahashi, and B. Sherstyukov, Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59(1), 1-28, doi:10.1080/02626667.2013.857411, 2014. |
| 5. | #Jiménez Cisneros, B.E., T. Oki, N.W. Arnell, G. Benito, J.G. Cogley, P. Döll, T. Jiang, and S.S. Mwakalila, Freshwater resources. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 229-269, 2014. |
| 6. | Hesse, C., V. Krysanova, A. Stefanova, M. Bielecka, and D. A. Domnin, Assessment of climate change impacts on water quantity and quality of the multi-river Vistula Lagoon catchment, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 60(5), 890-911, doi:10.1080/02626667.2014.967247, 2015. |
| 7. | Nayak, P. C., R. Wardlaw, and A. K. Kharya, Water balance approach to study the effect of climate change on groundwater storage for Sirhind command area in India, International Journal of River Basin Management, 13(2), 243-261, doi:10.1080/15715124.2015.1012206, 2015. |
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| 9. | Kara, F., I. Yucel, and Z. Akyurek, Climate change impacts on extreme precipitation of water supply area in Istanbul: Use of ensemble climate modelling and geo-statistical downscaling, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61(14), 2481-2495, doi:10.1080/02626667.2015.1133911, 2016. |
| 10. | Refsgaard, J. C., T. O. Sonnenborg, M. B. Butts, J. H. Christensen, S. Christensen, M. Drews, K. H. Jensen, F. Jørgensen, L. F. Jørgensen, M. A. D. Larsen, S. H. Rasmussen, L. P. Seaby, D. Seifert, and T. N. Vilhelmsen, Climate change impacts on groundwater hydrology – where are the main uncertainties and can they be reduced?, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61(13), 2312-2324, doi:10.1080/02626667.2015.1131899, 2016. |
| 11. | Kundzewicz, Z. W., V. Krysanova, R. Dankers, Y. Hirabayashi, S. Kanae, F. F. Hattermann, S. Huang, P. C. D. Milly, M. Stoffel, P. P. J. Driessen, P. Matczak, P. Quevauviller, and H.-J. Schellnhuber, Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe – their causes and consequences for decision making, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 62(1), 1-14, doi:10.1080/02626667.2016.1241398, 2017. |
| 12. | Connolly, R., M. Connolly, W. Soon, D. R. Legates, R. G. Cionco, and V. M. Velasco Herrera, Northern hemisphere snow-cover trends (1967–2018): A comparison between climate models and observations, Geosciences, 9(3), 135, doi:10.3390/geosciences9030135, 2019. |
| 13. | Kron, W., J. Eichner, and Z. W. Kundzewicz, Reduction of flood risk in Europe – Reflections from a reinsurance perspective, Journal of Hydrology, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.06.050, 2019. |
I. Nalbantis, A. Efstratiadis, E. Rozos, M. Kopsiafti, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Holistic versus monomeric strategies for hydrological modelling of human-modified hydrosystems, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 743–758, doi:10.5194/hess-15-743-2011, 2011.
The modelling of human-modified basins that are inadequately measured constitutes a challenge for hydrological science. Often, models for such systems are detailed and hydraulics-based for only one part of the system while for other parts oversimplified models or rough assumptions are used. This is typically a bottom-up approach, which seeks to exploit knowledge of hydrological processes at the micro-scale at some components of the system. Also, it is a monomeric approach in two ways: first, essential interactions among system components may be poorly represented or even omitted; second, differences in the level of detail of process representation can lead to uncontrolled errors. Additionally, the calibration procedure merely accounts for the reproduction of the observed responses using typical fitting criteria. The paper aims to raise some critical issues, regarding the entire modelling approach for such hydrosystems. For this, two alternative modelling strategies are examined that reflect two modelling approaches or philosophies: a dominant bottom-up approach, which is also monomeric and, very often, based on output information, and a top-down and holistic approach based on generalized information. Critical options are examined, which codify the differences between the two strategies: the representation of surface, groundwater and water management processes, the schematization and parameterization concepts and the parameter estimation methodology. The first strategy is based on stand-alone models for surface and groundwater processes and for water management, which are employed sequentially. For each model, a different (detailed or coarse) parameterization is used, which is dictated by the hydrosystem schematization. The second strategy involves model integration for all processes, parsimonious parameterization and hybrid manual-automatic parameter optimization based on multiple objectives. A test case is examined in a hydrosystem in Greece with high complexities, such as extended surface-groundwater interactions, ill-defined boundaries, sinks to the sea and anthropogenic intervention with unmeasured abstractions both from surface water and aquifers. Criteria for comparison are the physical consistency of parameters, the reproduction of runoff hydrographs at multiple sites within the studied basin, the likelihood of uncontrolled model outputs, the required amount of computational effort and the performance within a stochastic simulation setting. Our work allows for investigating the deterioration of model performance in cases where no balanced attention is paid to all components of human-modified hydrosystems and the related information. Also, sources of errors are identified and their combined effect are evaluated.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1055/11/documents/hess-15-743-2011.pdf (1733 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-743-2011
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Gharari, S., M. Hrachowitz, F. Fenicia, and H. H. G. Savenije, Hydrological landscape classification: investigating the performance of HAND based landscape classifications in a central European meso-scale catchment, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 3275-3291, doi:10.5194/hess-15-3275-2011, doi:10.5194/hess-15-3275-2011, 2011. |
| 2. | #Gharari, S., M. Hrachowitz, F. Fenicia, and H. H. G Savenije, Moving beyond traditional model calibration or how to better identify realistic model parameters: sub-period calibration, Hydrology and Earth System Science Discussions,, 9, 1885-1918, doi:10.5194/hessd-9-1885-2012, 2012. |
| 3. | Flipo, N., C. Monteil, M. Poulin, C. de Fouquet, and M. Krimissa, Hybrid fitting of a hydrosystem model: Long term insight into the Beauce aquifer functioning (France), Water Recourses Research, 48, W05509, doi:10.1029/2011WR011092, 2012. |
| 4. | Wang, X., T. Liu and W. Yang, Development of a robust runoff-prediction model by fusing the rational equation and a modified SCS-CN method, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57(6), 1118-1140, doi:10.1080/02626667.2012.701305, 2012. |
| 5. | Maneta, M. P., and W. W. Wallender, Pilot-point based multi-objective calibration in a surface–subsurface distributed hydrological model, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58(2), 390-407, doi:10.1080/02626667.2012.754987, 2013. |
| 6. | Hrachowitz, M., H.H.G. Savenije, G. Blöschl, J.J. McDonnell, M. Sivapalan, J.W. Pomeroy, B. Arheimer, T. Blume, M.P. Clark, U. Ehret, F. Fenicia, J.E. Freer, A. Gelfan, H.V. Gupta, D.A. Hughes, R.W. Hut, A. Montanari, S. Pande, D. Tetzlaff, P.A. Troch, S. Uhlenbrook, T. Wagener, H.C. Winsemius, R.A. Woods, E. Zehe, and C. Cudennec, A decade of Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) — a review, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58(6), 1198-1255, 2013. |
| 7. | #Loukas, A., and L. Vasiliades, Review of applied methods for flood-frequency analysis in a changing environment in Greece, In: A review of applied methods in Europe for flood-frequency analysis in a changing environment, Floodfreq COST action ES0901: European procedures for flood frequency estimation (ed. by H. Madsen et al.), Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, UK, 2013. |
| 8. | Flipo, N., A. Mouhri, B. Labarthe, S. Biancamaria, A. Rivière and P. Weill, Continental hydrosystem modelling: the concept of nested stream–aquifer interfaces, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 3121-3149, doi:10.5194/hess-18-3121-2014, 2014. |
| 9. | Ivkovic, K. M., B. F. W. Croke and R. A.Kelly, Overcoming the challenges of using a rainfall-runoff model to estimate the impacts of groundwater extraction on low flows in an ephemeral stream, Hydrology Research, 45(1), 58-72, doi:10.2166/nh.2013.204, 2014. |
| 10. | Mateo, C. M., N. Hanasaki, D. Komori, K. Tanaka, M. Kiguchi, A. Champathong, T. Sukhapunnaphan, D.Yamazaki, and T. Oki, Assessing the impacts of reservoir operation to floodplain inundation by combining hydrological, reservoir management, and hydrodynamic models, Water Resources Research, 50(9), 7245–7266, doi:10.1002/2013WR014845, 2014. |
| 11. | Gharari, S., M. Hrachowitz, F. Fenicia, H. Gao, and H. H. G. Savenije, Using expert knowledge to increase realism in environmental system models can dramatically reduce the need for calibration, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 4839-4859, doi:10.5194/hess-18-4839-2014, 2015. |
| 12. | Thirel, G., V. Andréassian, C. Perrin, J.-N. Audouy, L. Berthet, P. Edwards, N. Folton, C. Furusho, A. Kuentz, J. Lerat, G. Lindström, E. Martin, T. Mathevet, R. Merz, J. Parajka, D. Ruelland, and J. Vaze, Hydrology under change: an evaluation protocol to investigate how hydrological models deal with changing catchments, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 60(7-8), 1184-1199, doi:10.1080/02626667.2014.9672482014, 2015. |
| 13. | Pryet, A., B. Labarthe, F. Saleh, M. Akopian and N. Flipo, Reporting of stream-aquifer flow distribution at the regional scale with a distributed process-based model, Water Resources Management, 10.1007/s11269-014-0832-7, 29(1), 139-159, 2015. |
| 14. | Donnelly, C., J. C. M. Andersson, and B. Arheimer, Using flow signatures and catchment similarities to evaluate the E-HYPE multi-basin model across Europe, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61(2), 255-273, doi:10.1080/02626667.2015.1027710, 2016. |
| 15. | Bellin, A., B. Majone, O. Cainelli, D. Alberici, and F. Villa, A continuous coupled hydrological and water resources management model, Environmental Modelling and Software, 75, 176–192, doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.10.013, 2016. |
| 16. | Ajmal, M., J.-H. Ahn, and , T.-W. Kim, Excess stormwater quantification in ungauged watersheds using an event-based modified NRCS model, Water Resources Management, 30(4), 1433-1448, doi:10.1007/s11269-016-1231-z, 2016. |
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G. G. Anagnostopoulos, D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Christofides, A. Efstratiadis, and N. Mamassis, A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 55 (7), 1094–1110, doi:10.1080/02626667.2010.513518, 2010.
We compare the output of various climate models to temperature and precipitation observations at 55 points around the globe. We spatially aggregate model output and observations over the contiguous USA using data from 70 stations, and we perform comparison at several temporal scales, including a climatic (30-year) scale. Besides confirming the findings of a previous assessment study that model projections at point scale are poor, results show that the spatially integrated projections do not correspond to reality any better.
Remarks:
The paper has been discussed in weblogs and forums.
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- Very Important New Paper “A Comparison Of Local And Aggregated Climate Model Outputs With Observed Data” By Anagnostopoulos Et Al 2010 (Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr.)
- New peer reviewed paper shows just how bad the climate models really are (Watts Up With That?)
- Missing News: No skill in climate modelling (ABC News Watch)
- Missing News: Climate models disputed (ABC News Watch)
- New peer reviewed paper shows just how bad the climate models really are (repost 1) (Countdown to critical mass)
- New peer reviewed paper shows just how bad the climate models really are (repost2 ) (Climate Observer)
- New Major Peer-Reviewed Study: Climate Models' Predictions Found To Be Shitty (C3)
- New peer reviewed paper shows just how bad the climate models really are - A response to the Climate Change Misinformation at wattsupwiththat.com (Wott's Up With That?)
- Climate model abuse (Niche Modeling)
- Very Important New Paper on models versus reality (Greenie Watch)
- New paper shows that there is no means of reliably predicting climate variables (Greenie Watch 2)
- A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data (Fire And Ice)
- Peer Reviewed Study States The Obvious (US Message Board)
- Climate models don’t work, in hindsight (Herald Sun Andrew Bolt Blog)
- Climate models don’t work, in hindsight (repost) (The Daily Telegraph)
- No abuse hides the fact: warmist models cannot even predict our past (Herald Sun Andrew Bolt Blog 2)
- No abuse hides the fact: the warmist models cannot even predict our past (PA Pundits – International)
- Aussie rains – IPCC models are bunkum, Energy tsunami, CCNet updates, Exit EU petition (clothcap)
- Aussie rains – IPCC models are bunkum, Energy tsunami, CCNet updates, Exit EU petition (repost) (My Telegraph)
- Science not politics (ecomyths)
- More evidence that Global Climate computer models are worthless (Tucano's Perch)
- Model skill? (Retread Resources Blog)
- Estudo sobre modelos climáticos (MeteoPT.com - Fórum de Meteorologia)
- Strategie di verifica delle prestazioni dei GCM, i risultati degli idrologi dell’università di Atene (Climate Monitor)
- Strategie di verifica delle prestazioni dei GCM, i risultati degli idrologi dell’università di Atene (repost) (Blog All Over The World)
- Klima - spådommer og målinger (ABC News)
- "Scam for the Ages" Makes Madoff Look Like Small Change (Al Fin)
- Teoria do AGA: um passado duvidoso, um presente mal contado e um futuro pior ainda. (Sou Engenheiro)
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Climate Etc. * Climate Etc. (2) * Climate Etc. (3) * YouTube * Science Forum * Google Groups * Google Groups 2 * Errors in IPCC climate science * Errors in IPCC climate science (2) * Just Grounds Community * A Few Things Ill Considered * Popular Technology.net * The Climate Scam * JunkScience * The Chronicle of Higher Education * The Little Skeptic * Jennifer Marohasy * Dot Earth Blog - NYTimes.com * ICECAP * Watching the Deniers * DVD Talk * Pure Poison * Peak Oil News and Message Boards * Bishop Hill * San Diego News * Sheffield Forum * Herald Sun Andrew Bolt Blog 3 * BBC - Richard Black's Earth Watch * Liberation * Pistonheads * ABC.net.au * Climate Conversation Group * Sydsvenskan - Nyheter dygnet runt * Telepolis * Keskisuomalainen * Keskisuomalainen 2
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/978/1/documents/928051726__.pdf (1309 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2010.513518
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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One decade after the first publications on multiobjective hydrological calibration, we summarize the experience gained so far, by underlining the key perspectives offered by such approaches to improve parameter identifiability. After reviewing the fundamentals of vector optimization theory and the algorithmic issues, we link the multicriteria calibration approach with the concepts of uncertainty and equifinality. Specifically, the multicriteria framework enables recognizing and handling errors and uncertainties, and detecting prominent behavioural solutions with acceptable trade-offs. Particularly in models of complex parameterization, a multiobjective approach becomes essential for improving the identifiability of parameters and augmenting the information contained in calibration, by means of both multiresponse measurements and empirical metrics (“soft” data), which account for the hydrological expertise. Based on the literature review, we also provide alternative techniques to treat with conflicting and non-commeasurable criteria, and hybrid strategies to utilize the information gained towards identifying promising compromise solutions that ensure consistent and reliable calibrations.
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Since 1990 extensive funds have been spent on research in climate change. Although Earth Sciences, including climatology and hydrology, have benefited significantly, progress has proved incommensurate with the effort and funds, perhaps because these disciplines were perceived as “tools” subservient to the needs of the climate change enterprise rather than autonomous sciences. At the same time, research was misleadingly focused more on the “symptom”, i.e. the emission of greenhouse gases, than on the “illness”, i.e. the unsustainability of fossil fuel-based energy production. Unless energy saving and use of renewable resources become the norm, there is a real risk of severe socioeconomic crisis in the not-too-distant future. A framework for drastic paradigm change is needed, in which water plays a central role, due to its unique link to all forms of renewable energy, from production (hydro and wave power) to storage (for time-varying wind and solar sources), to biofuel production (irrigation). The extended role of water should be considered in parallel to its other uses, domestic, agricultural and industrial. Hydrology, the science of water on Earth, must move towards this new paradigm by radically rethinking its fundamentals, which are unjustifiably trapped in the 19th-century myths of deterministic theories and the zeal to eliminate uncertainty. Guidance is offered by modern statistical and quantum physics, which reveal the intrinsic character of uncertainty/entropy in nature, thus advancing towards a new understanding and modelling of physical processes, which is central to the effective use of renewable energy and water resources.
Remarks:
Blogs and forums that have discussed this article: Climate science; Vertical news; Outside the cube.
Update 2011-09-26: The removed video of the panel discussion of Nobelists entitled “Climate Changes and Energy Challenges” (held in the framework of the 2008 Meeting of Nobel Laureates at Lindau on Physics) which is referenced in footnote 1 of the paper, still cannot be located online. However, Larry Gould has an audio file of the discussion here.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/878/17/documents/hess-13-247-2009.pdf (1476 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-13-247-2009
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
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D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, and A. Christofides, On the credibility of climate predictions, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53 (4), 671–684, doi:10.1623/hysj.53.4.671, 2008.
Geographically distributed predictions of future climate, obtained through climate models, are widely used in hydrology and many other disciplines, typically without assessing their reliability. Here we compare the output of various models to temperature and precipitation observations from eight stations with long (over 100 years) records from around the globe. The results show that models perform poorly, even at a climatic (30-year) scale. Thus local model projections cannot be credible, whereas a common argument that models can perform better at larger spatial scales is unsupported.
Remarks:
The paper has been widely discussed in weblogs and forums.
Weblogs and forums that discussed this article during 2008:
- Koutsoyiannis et al 2008: On the credibility of climate predictions (Climate Audit by Steve McIntyre) Reaction by first author * * * Additional reactions: 2 * 3 * 4 * 5 * 6 * more
- On the credibility of climate predictions by Koutsoyiannis et al. 2008 (Climate Science by Roger Pielke Sr. 1)
- Comments on a New Report on Climate Change in Colorado… (Climate Science by Roger Pielke Sr. 2)
- New Paper On Dynamic Downscaling Of Climate Models By Rockel Et. Al. Published (Climate Science by Roger Pielke Sr. 3)
- Hypothesis testing and long range memory (Real Climate by Gavin A. Schmidt) Reaction by 1st author; * * * Additional reaction
- Koutsoyiannis vs RealClimate.ORG (The Reference Frame by Luboš Motl) Reaction by 1rst author
- Modellen en vroegere werkelijkheid: een test (Klimaat by Marcel Severijnen 1)
- Nog eens: Modellen en vroegere werkelijkheid (Klimaat by Marcel Severijnen 2)
- Far from model predictions. As for the CSIRO’s… (Andrew Bolt Blog 1)
- Dud studies behind Rudd’s freakish claims (Andrew Bolt Blog 2)
- Rudd’s dud study (Andrew Bolt Blog 3)
- November snows all over the CSIRO (Andrew Bolt Blog 4)
- New paper demonstrates lack of credibility for climate model predictions (Jennifer Marohasy Blog 1)
- Ten of the Best Climate Research Papers (Nine Peer-Reviewed): A Note from Cohenite (Jennifer Marohasy Blog 2)
- Ten Worst Man-Made Disasters (Jennifer Marohasy Blog 3)
- Climate models struggling for credibility (Al Fin)
- Climate models fuzz (European Tribune)
- If it wasn't so serious then it'd be funny (Kerplunk - Common sense from Down Under)
- Laying the boot into climate models (The Tizona Group)
- More model mania (Planet Gore)
- New research on the credibility of climate predictions (SciForums)
- New paper demonstrates lack of credibility for climate model predictions 2 (Blogotariat)
- New study: climate models fail again (MSNBC Boards 1)
- Global Climate Models Fail (Again) (MSNBC Boards 2)
- On the credibility of climate predictions (Chronos)
- Sane skepticism, part 2 (Helicity)
- Science. On the credibility of climate predictions (Greenhouse Bullcrap)
- Testing global warming models (Assorted Meanderings)
- Climate cuttings 21 (Bishop Hill blog)
- Models, Climate Change and Credibility... (21st Century Schizoid Man)
- Two valuable perspectives on global warming (Fabius Maximus)
- Unreliability of climate models? (Climate Change)
- Crumbling Consensus: Global Climate Models Fail (Stubborn Facts)
- The Australian government's climate castle is built on sand (Greenie Watch)
- Koutsoyiannis et al 2008 (Detached Ideas)
- Credibility of Climate Predictions Paper (TWO community)
- "Climate consensus" continues to unravel (Solomonia)
- Climate models have no predictive value (Acadie 1755)
- Global Warming Summary series, Part 5: The Earth’s Greenhouse Gas – CO2 and IPCC Climate Modeling (Global Warming Science)
- Reducing Vulnerability to Climate-Sensitive Risks is the Best Insurance Policy (Cato Unbound)
- Global Warming News of the Week (No Oil for Pacifists)
- A few more cooling blasts at hot air balloons (Clothcap2 : My Telegraph)
- IPCC-Klimamodell unbrauchbar (jetzt Sueddeutsche)
- Uups II: IPCC-Klimamodelle fantasieren (Die Achse des Guten)
- Griechische Unsicherheiten (Climate Review)
- El fracaso de los modelos (Valdeperrillos)
- Klimamodeller er usikre (Debattcentralen - Aftenposten.no)
- Studie: Klimatmodellernas trovärdighet låg (Klimatsvammel)
- Credibilidad de las predicciones climáticas (FAEC Mitos y Fraudes)
Other reactions in weblogs, forums and Internet resources during 2008:
Climate Audit 2 * Climate Audit 3 * Real Climate 2 * Junk Science * Wikipedia * Wikipedia Talk 1 * Wikipedia Talk 2 * Wikipedia Talk 3 * Global Warming Clearinghouse 1 * Global Warming Clearinghouse 2 * Global Warming Clearinghouse 3 * ICECAP * Climate Feedback (Nature) * Google Groups - alt.global-warming 1 * Google Groups - alt.global-warming 2 * Google Groups - alt.politics.usa * Google Groups - sci.environment * Google Groups - sci.physics * Yahoo Tech Groups * Yahoo Message Boards * Andrew Bolt Blog 5 * Andrew Bolt Blog 6 * Andrew Bolt Blog 7 * Andrew Bolt Blog 8 * Andrew Bolt Blog 9 * Andrew Bolt Blog 10 * Andrew Bolt Blog 11 * Andrew Bolt Blog 12 * Andrew Bolt Blog 13 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 4 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 5 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 6 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 7 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 8 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 9 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 10 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 11 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 12 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 13 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 14 * The Blackboard 1 * The Blackboard 2 * The Motley Fool Discussion Boards 1 * The Motley Fool Discussion Boards 2 * The Daily Bayonet * FinanMart * JREF Forum 1 * JREF Forum 2 * JREF Forum 3 * AccuWeather * Climate Change Fraud 1 * Climate Change Fraud 2 * Climate Change Fraud 4 * Climate Change Fraud 5 * Watts Up With That? 1 * Watts Up With That? 2 * Watts Up With That? 3 * Watts Up With That? 4 * Watts Up With That? 5 * City-Data Forum * Climate Brains * Dvorak Uncensored * Newspoll * The Australian 1 * The Australian 2 * ABC Unleashed 1 * ABC Unleashed 2 * ABC Unleashed 3 * ABC Unleashed 4 * ABC Science Online Forum * Global Warming Skeptics * Niche Modeling * Dot Earth - The New York Times 1 * Dot Earth - The New York Times 2 * Dot Earth - The New York Times 3 * Dot Earth - The New York Times 4 * Dot Earth - The New York Times 5 * Dot Earth - The New York Times 6 * Bart Verheggen * WE Blog * Globe and Mail 1 * Globe and Mail 2 * Small Dead Animals * forums.ski.com.au * ABC Message Board * Sydney Morning Herald 1 (also published in the print version of the newspaper) * Sydney Morning Herald 2 * Sydney Morning Herald 3 * PistonHeads * Clipmarks * British Blogs * The Devil's Kitchen * Peak Oil Journal * The Volokh Conspiracy * Weather Underground * Capitol Grilling * Science & Environmental Policy Project * SookNET Technology * Climate Review 2 * Social Science News Central * Urban75 Forums * Wolf Howling * Launch Magazine Online * Popular Technology * The Environment Site Forums * CNC zone * Solar Cycle 24 Forums * Wired Science * Climate 411 * Daimnation * The Forum * Global Warming Information * Christian Forums 1 * Christian Forums 2 * CommonDreams.org 1 * CommonDreams.org 2 * Greenhouse Bullcrap 2 * Derkeiler Newsgroup * YouTube * Fresh Video * Topix * WeerOnline * The Air Vent * Greenfyre’s * Crikey * ChangeBringer * Scotsman.com News * Climate Change Controversies - David Pratt * Skeptical Science * Block’s Indicator of Sustainable Growth * Digg * Millard Fillmore’s Bathtub * News Busters * AgoraVox * Notre Planete * France 5 * Wissen - Sueddeutsche * Telepolis-Blogforen 1 * Telepolis-Blogforen 2 * Telepolis-Blogforen 3 * WirtschaftsWoche * Antizyklisches Forum * Oekologismus.de * Público.es * Uppsalainitiativet * Tiede.fi 1 * Tiede.fi 2 * Tiede.fi 3 * kolumbus.fi/ * De Rerum Natura * Ilmastonmuutos - totta vai tarua *