Professor Emeritus, Civil Engineer, Dr. Engineer
D.Koutsoyiannis@itia.ntua.gr
+30-2107722831
http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/dk/
Production of maps with updated parameters of the ombrian curves at country level (implementation of the EU Directive 2007/60/EC in Greece)
Duration: February 2023–July 2023
Budget: €37 200
Commissioned by: Ministry of Ennvironment and Energy
Contractor: Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering
Project directors: T. Iliopoulou, D. Koutsoyiannis
The objective of the research project is the regionalization of the parameters of the rainfall curves in the whole of the Greek Territory, based on the point estimates at the Water Division level that are obtained in the context of the contracts assigned for the 1st Revision of the Flood Risk Management Plans in application of the 2007 Directive /60/EC. The regionalization aims to achieve a reliable model of rainfall curves with spatially varying parameters, which are available on a grid, with the finest possible spatial resolution, extending over the entire country. For this purpose, spatial interpolation methods with smoothing are utilized as well as newer, more reliable methodologies for spatial parameter estimation.
Upgrade of the hydraulics laboratory for the modeling of water supply networks & design and operation optimization study
Duration: September 2012–August 2015
Budget: €34 422
Commissioned by: Research Promotion Foundation of Cyprys
Contractors:
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: P. Papanicolaou
The main components of the project are: (a) Upgrading of the existing technological equipment of the Cyprus University of Technology, for supporting the research needs; (b) Development of a digital imprint of a selected water supply network (Paphos Municipality), with combined use of state-of-the-art technologies, such as GPS, GIS and SRS; (c) Development of a generalized modelling framework and related computational/mathematical tools (in terms of hydraulic simulation models and multiobjective evolutionary algorithms), which will be tested in the optimization of the design and operation of the pilot water supply network; (d) Development of an experimental representation aimed at improving the design and operation of the network and its systems, (e) Experimental verification of the computational results and development of know-how in matters relating to systems of supervision and self-regulation of pumps and valves. NTUA mainly contributes in water supply network modelling issues, focusing on the development of the optimization framework and their integration within a computational system. Moreover, NTUA provides support in the formulation of the specifications for the upgrading of the laboratory equipment and the implementation of the experiments.
Combined REnewable Systems for Sustainable ENergy DevelOpment (CRESSENDO)
Duration: February 2014–July 2015
Budget: €315 000
Commissioned by: General Secretariat of Research and Technology
Contractor: Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: N. Mamassis
Programme: Αριστεία ΙΙ
The project's objective is to develop a holistic framework for optimal planning and management of large-scale hybrid renewable energy systems, in which hydropower plays the dominant role. The scale refers to both the size of energy units and their spatial extent, and is of major importance, as efficiency increases with scale, while uncertainty decreases. Outcomes of the research include a coherent stochastic-entropic theory for uncertainty assessment of the processes that are related to energy production (wind velocity, solar radiation, streamflow), and a parameterization-simulation-optimization scheme inspired from established system-based approaches for supporting optimal decision-making in complex water management problems. The whole framework is integrated within a decision support system (DSS), in which several software tools are integrated . The methodology and the DSS are tested at a large region that covers 12% of Greece, characterized by substantial hydropower potential. The study area is viewed as a closed and energy-autonomous system, in order to investigate the perspectives of sustainable development at a regional scale, using exclusively renewable energy sources. Following the principle of openness, we provide free accessibility to data, methods and tools, through a broad range of dissemination activities.
DEUCALION – Assessment of flood flows in Greece under conditions of hydroclimatic variability: Development of physically-established conceptual-probabilistic framework and computational tools
Duration: March 2011–March 2014
Budget: €145 000
Commissioned by: General Secretariat of Research and Technology
Contractors:
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: N. Mamassis
Programme: ΕΣΠΑ "Συνεργασία"
The project aims to develop a set of physically-based methodologies associated with modelling and forecasting of extreme rainfall events and the subsequent flood events, and adapted to the peculiarities of the hydroclimatic and geomorphological conditions of Greece. It includes the implementation of a set of research river basins that comprises a number of gauged basins in Greece and Cyprus with reliable measurements of adequate length, as well as three new experimental basins (with their sub-basins), which will be equipped with the necessary infrastructure. From the field data analysis (hydrological, meteorological, geographical) physically-established regional models will be devoloped for the estimation of characteristic hydrological design quantities, along with hydrological-hydraulic models, which will be integrated within an operational system for hydrometeorological forecasting. A framework of design criteria and methodologies (in a draft form for discussion) will be prepared for the elaboration of hydrological studies for flood-prevention works.
Project web-page: http://deucalionproject.itia.ntua.gr/
Integrated study for the investigation of the quantity, quality and recovery of the underwater springs of the Stoupa region in Municipality of Lefktros, Messinia
Duration: January 2009–December 2010
Budget: €220 000
Commissioned by:
Contractors:
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: P. Papanicolaou
The main objective of the project is to investigate the possibility of exploitation of the underwater springs of Stoupa, in the Municipality of Lefktra. The contribution of NTUA is the evaluation of the possible freshwater capture works from the underwater spring. The project comprises two stages: (a) the investigation of the problem and the development of a methodology for the capture, transport and temporary storage of the freshwater, which includes field work in a pilot study, and the construction and testing of the temporary pilot facility, and (b) the outline of the works required for the transport and storage of potable water.
Flood risk estimation and forecast using hydrological models and probabilistic methods
Duration: February 2007–August 2008
Budget: €15 000
Commissioned by: National Technical University of Athens
Contractor: Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering
Collaborators: Hydrologic Research Center
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: S.M. Papalexiou
Programme: Πρόγραμμα Βασικής Έρευνας ΕΜΠ "Κωνσταντίνος Καραθεοδωρή"
The objective of this project is the development of an integrated framework for the estimation and forecast of flood risk using stochastic, hydrological and hydraulics methods. The study area is the Boeticos Kephisos river basin. The project includes analysis of severe storm episodes in the basin, the understanding of mechanisms of flood generation in this karstic basin and the estimation of flood risk in characteristic sites of the hydrosystem.
Nonlinear methods in multicriteria water resource optimization problems
Duration: November 2002–December 2007
Budget: €33 274
Commissioned by: Ministry of National Education
Contractor: National Technical University of Athens
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: A. Efstratiadis
Programme: Ηράκλειτος
Support on the compilation of the national programme for water resources management and preservation
Duration: February 2007–May 2007
Budget: €45 000
Commissioned by: Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works
Contractor: Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: A. Andreadakis
This project updates and expands a previous research project (Classification of quantitative and qualitative parameters of water resources in water districts of Greece), which has been commissioned by the Ministry of Development and conducted by the same team of NTUA in co-operation with the Ministry of Development, IGME, and KEPE.
The project includes defining the methodology, analyzing the water resources in the 14 water districts, quantity and quality and the relations between them, describing the existing administrative and development frameworks for water resources management and protection presenting the national, peripheral and sectoral water-related policies, and proposing an approach to a water resource management and protection programme (conclusions, problems, solutions, and proposals for projects and measures).
Investigation of management scenarios for the Smokovo reservoir
Duration: November 2005–December 2006
Budget: €60 000
Commissioned by: Special Directorate for the Management of Corporate Programs of Thessaly
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: N. Mamassis
Programme: Επιχειρησιακά Σχέδια Διαχείρισης Δικτύων Σμοκόβου
Integrated Management of Hydrosystems in Conjunction with an Advanced Information System (ODYSSEUS)
Duration: July 2003–June 2006
Budget: €779 656
Commissioned by: General Secretariat of Research and Technology
Contractor: NAMA
Collaborators:
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: A. Andreadakis
Programme: ΕΠΑΝ, Φυσικό Περιβάλλον και Βιώσιμη Ανάπτυξη
The project aims at providing support to decision-making processes within the direction of integrated management of water resource systems at a variety of scales. Several methodologies and computing tools are developed, which are incorporated into an integrated information system. The main deliverable is an operational software package of general use, which is evaluated and tested on two pilot case studies, concerning hydrosystems in Greece with varying characteristics (Karditsa, Dodecanesus). The end-product of the project is a software system for simulation and optimisation of hydrosystem operation, as well as a series of separate software applications for solving specific problems, aiming at producing input data to the central system or post-processing of the results. The project includes eleven work packages, eight for basic research, two for industrial research and one for the pilot applications.
Testing of the new measuring system of the aqueduct of Mornos
Duration: January 2001–December 2003
Commissioned by: Water Supply and Sewerage Company of Athens
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: J. Gavriilidis
In an earlier research project, the development of an automatic measuring system of water level meters and flow meters was proposed for the aqueduct network of the water supply of Athens. After the realisation of the measuring system, its devices should be checked for proper operation. The current project aims at scheduling and implementing a flow measurement programme at the sites where discharge meters are installed by the Water Supply and Sewerage Company of Athens (EYDAP) in the Mornos aqueduct, in order to check their accuracy based on the methodology proposed in the earlier project. Specifically, measurements are done using flow meter according to the ISO standard ISO 748 (1979, 1997; Measurement of liquid flow in open channels - Velocity-area methods). At each site 5 flow measurements (one daily measurement per month on the average) for different values of the discharge are done in steady state flow conditions. The measurements are processed appropriately, whereas for any problems of instrument inaccuracies that emerge, the appropriate solutions are studied and suggested.
Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens
Duration: March 1999–December 2003
Commissioned by: Water Supply and Sewerage Company of Athens
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
Due to the dry climate of the surrounding region, Athens has suffered from frequent water shortages during its long history but now has acquired a reliable system for water supply. This extensive and complex water resource system extends over an area of around 4000 km2 and includes surface water and groundwater resources. It incorporates four reservoirs, 350 km of main aqueducts, 15 pumping stations and more than 100 boreholes. The water resource system also supplies secondary uses such as irrigation and water supply of nearby towns. The Athens Water Supply and Sewerage Company (EYDAP) that runs the system commissioned this project, which comprises: (a) development of a geographical information system for the representation and supervision of the external water supply system; (b) development of a measurement system for the water resources of Athens; (c) development of a system for the estimation and prediction of the water resource system of Athens utilising stochastic models; (d) development of a decision support system for the integrated management of water resource system of Athens using simulation-optimisation methodologies; and (e) cooperation and transfer of knowledge between NTUA and EYDAP.
Products: 17 reports; 14 publications
Completion of the classification of quantitative and qualitative parameters of water resources in water districts of Greece
Duration: November 2001–April 2003
Commissioned by: Directorate of Water and Natural Resources
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Collaborators: Directorate of Water and Natural Resources
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: D. Mamais
The project continues an earlier study elaborated by the Ministry of Development, the Department of Water Resources of the National Technical University of Athens, the Institute of Geology & Mineral Exploration, and the Centre of Planning and Research.The project objective is the classification of the existing information related to water quantity and quality in characteristic areas (water districts) of Greece, using geographical information systems. The specific objective of this phase is the analysis of water supply and demand balance, and the qualitative characterisation of water resources in four water districts of Greece.
Appraisal of river sediment deposits in reservoirs of hydropower dams
Duration: February 1998–October 2001
Commissioned by:
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
The objective of this research project is the estimation of the sediment deposits in reservoirs of hydropower dams. Specifically, an estimation of the volume of deposits in one of the reservoirs of the Public Power Corporation (the Kremasta Reservoir) is done using hydrographic methods. The estimation is used as a basis to calibrate a mathematical model of sediment discharge, which accounts for the processes involved such as soil erosion, sediment transport and deposition.
Evaluation of Management of the Water Resources of Sterea Hellas - Phase 3
Duration: November 1996–December 2000
Commissioned by: Directorate of Water Supply and Sewage
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
The main objectives of the research project are the evaluation and management of the water resources, both surface and subsurface, of the Sterea Hellas region, and the systematic study of all parameters related to the rational development and management of the water resources of this region. Another objective of the project, considered as an infrastructure work, is the development of software for the hydrological, hydrogeological and operational simulation of the combined catchments of the study area. The development of the software and, at the same time, the development of methodologies suitable for the Greek conditions will assist in decision-making concerning the water resources management of Sterea Hellas and of other Greek regions. The project also aims at the improving of the cooperation between the National Technical University of Athens and the Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works. This is considered as a necessary condition for the continuous updating of the project results as well as for the rational analysis of the water resource problems of the Sterea Hellas region. The specific themes of Phase 3 are: (a) the completion of the information systems of the previous phases, which concerned hydrological and hydrogeological information, by including two additional levels of information related to the water uses and the water resources development works; (b) the development of methodologies for optimising the hydrosystems operation and the construction of integrated simulation and optimisation models for the two major hydrosystems of the study area (Western and Eastern Sterea Hellas); and (c) the integration of all computer systems (databases, geographical information systems, application models) into a unified system with collaborating components.
Systematisation of the raw data archive of surface and subsurface waters of the Ministry of Agriculture in Thessalia
Duration: February 1997–January 1999
Commissioned by: Department of Hydrogeology, Boreholes and Mathematical Models
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: I. Nalbantis
The project aims at the modernisation of the archive of surface and subsurface water related data of the Ministry of Agriculture in the Thessalia region (mainly data on quantities of the drafts from both surface waters and groundwater pumped from public or private boreholes). It also includes the data organisation into a geographical information system and the data evaluation and processing, from which the evapotranspiration of the area is estimated using semi-empirical methods.
Upgrading and updating of hydrological information of Thessalia
Duration: May 1996–March 1997
Commissioned by: Directorate for Acheloos Diversion Works
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: I. Nalbantis
The project includes the updating of existing archives of hydrometeorological data with the new measurements, and the upgrading of the databases using the new computational environment of the Hydroscope project. It also includes data processing and analysis in order to obtain a reliable and consistent hydrometeorological data set. The databases are linked to a geographical information system that is used for the processing and the visualisation of information. Based on this processing, the basic parameters of the water potential of the area are estimated and their geographical distribution is studied with emphasis on the recent persistent drought.
Classification of quantitative and qualitative parameters of the water resources of Greece using geographical information systems
Duration: February 1996–September 1996
Commissioned by: Directorate of Water and Natural Resources
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Collaborators:
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: A. Andreadakis
The project part related to water quantity aims at the development of a methodology for establishing a water balance between supply and demand and extracting the most important summary characteristics that are then entered into a geographical information system. The methodology is applied to characteristic areas (water districts) of Greece with adequacy of information (based on existing studies). The project part related to water quality aims at the characterisation of the rivers, lakes and aquifers based on the water quality characteristics, and the water uses and requirements. The characterisation is based on the classification of critical quantity parameters that have been measured and includes the use of a geographical information system.
Hydroscope II - Creation of a National Databank for Hydrological and Meteorological Information
Duration: April 1993–September 1995
Commissioned by:
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
This project is complementary to the major Hydroscope project. Its objectives are the purchase of computational infrastructure and the pilot data entry into the databank that is developed in the framework of the major project. The data entered provides a means for testing of the operation of the distributed database and the wide area network, and the operational use of the related infrastructure.
Hydroscope: Creation of a National Databank for Hydrological and Meteorological Information
Duration: January 1992–December 1993
Budget: 394 238 400 DRS (about €1 600 000)
Commissioned by:
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Collaborators:
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigators: M. Aftias, D. Koutsoyiannis
Programme: STRIDE
The main objective of HYDROSCOPE is the creation of a modern information infrastructure for the hydrological cycle in Greece. Specifically, it aims at organising and systematising the hydrological, hydrogeological and meteorological information using the capacities that are provided by the modern methods and techniques of computer science and telecommunications. The database, which will be built, will contribute to the reliable programming, planning and management of the water resources of the country, the mitigation of phenomena like flood and drought, the evaluation of hydroclimatic parameters and their effects to the natural and biological environment, the diagnosis of climatic changes as well as the prediction and the control of the air pollution and the groundwater and surface water pollution. The development of a unified synergistic network, the information exchange and the co-ordination of the activities of the participating organisations, which are involved with the components of the hydrological cycle (Universities, Research Centres, Ministries and Services) as well as the reorganisation and standardisation of the hydrometeorological networks' function are considered as indirect but essential benefits. The programme includes: (a) hardware equipment, to install a network with 13 major nodes (RISC Workstations with Unix operation system) in Athens and Thessaloniki, local networks of PCs in each node, private high speed wide area network using routers and leased telephone lines, (b) infrastructure software, and specifically, distributed relational data base and graphic environment for applications' development, and (c) application software, and specifically, a distributed database system and applications concerning the input, the supervision and the processing of data in a graphic environment. This distributed database system provides firstly, the autonomy of each participant in managing data and secondly, a transparent, relatively to the data position, access. In addition, the project includes the locating of the available hydrological, hydrogeological and meteorological data that is maintained by the participants and the determination of the volume, the form and the reliability of measurements. Finally, a significant part of HYDROSCOPE deals with the development and the standardisation of methodologies regarding the processing as well as the pilot data entry of a part of the hydrological, hydrogeological and meteorological information aiming at the testing of the methodologies and systems.
Maintenance, upgrading and extension of the Decision Support System for the management of the Athens water resource system
Duration: October 2008–November 2011
Budget: €72 000
Project director: N. Mamassis
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
This research project includes the maintenance, upgrading and extension of the Decision Support System that developed by NTUA for EYDAP in the framework of the research project “Updating of the supervision and management of the water resources’ system for the water supply of the Athens’ metropolitan area”. The project is consisted of the following parts: (a) Upgrading of the Data Base, (b)Upgrading and extension of hydrometeorological network, (c) upgrading of the hydrometeorological data process software, (d) upgrading and extension of the Hydronomeas software, (e) hydrological data analysis and (f) support to the preparation of the annual master plans
Building the Future of Transnational Cooperation in Water Resources in South East Europe (EDUCATE!)
Duration: May 2006–August 2008
Budget: €200 000
Commissioned by: European Union
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Collaborators:
Project director: A. Katsiri
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
Programme: Interreg IIIB CADSES (Neighborhood Programme)
Educate! assists in shaping current and future policy and practice in Water Resources Management in SE Europe, through professional capacity building and provision of a common understanding of IWRM for young graduates within a cooperative, transnational environment. Specifically, Educate! is: 1. Setting up and operate a network of Higher Education Organisations in SE Europe with an expertise in Environmental Protection and Water Resources Management; 2. Developping a transnational postgraduate course on Integrated Water Resources Management; 3. Developping a flexible structure for delivering the course across geographic areas and across different audiences (from students to professionals) through e-learning and a modular format and 4. Running a pilot transnational postgraduate course and professional educational and training courses for governmental officials and industry.
Investigation of scenarios for the management and protection of the quality of the Plastiras Lake
Duration: May 2001–January 2002
Commissioned by:
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: K. Hadjibiros
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
To protect the Plastiras Lake, a high quality of the natural landscape and a satisfactory water quality must be ensured, the conflicting water uses and demands must be arranged and effective water management practices must be established. To this aim, the hydrology of the catchment is investigated, the geographical, meteorological and water power data are collected and processed, the water balance is studied and a stochastic model is constructed to support the study of alternative management scenarios. In addition, an analysis of the natural landscape is performed and the negative influences (e.g. dead tries) are determined and quantified using GIS. Furthermore, the water quality parameters are evaluated, the water quality state is assessed, the quantitative targets are determined, the pollution sources are identified and measures for the reduction of pollution are studied using a hydrodynamic model with emphasis on the nutrient status. Based on the results of these analyses, scenarios of safe water release are suggested.
National databank for hydrological and meteorological information - Hydroscope 2000
Duration: January 1997–December 2000
Commissioned by: Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: M. Mimikou
Principal investigators: D. Koutsoyiannis, M. Mimikou
Evaluation of Management of the Water Resources of Sterea Hellas - Phase 2
Duration: November 1993–October 1995
Commissioned by: Directorate of Water Supply and Sewage
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: Th. Xanthopoulos
Principal investigators: D. Koutsoyiannis, P. Marinos
The main objectives of the research project are the evaluation and management of the water resources, both surface and subsurface, of the Sterea Hellas region, and the systematic study of all parameters related to the rational development and management of the water resources of this region. Another objective of the project, considered as an infrastructure work, is the development of software for the hydrological, hydrogeological and operational simulation of the combined catchments of the study area. The development of the software and, at the same time, the development of methodologies suitable for the Greek conditions will assist in decision-making concerning the water resources management of Sterea Hellas and of other Greek regions. The project also aims at the improving of the cooperation between the National Technical University of Athens and the Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works. This is considered as a necessary condition for the continuous updating of the project results as well as for the rational analysis of the water resource problems of the Sterea Hellas region. The specific themes of Phase 2 are: (a) the conversion of the databases of the previous phase into the new computer environment based on Unix and Windows workstations; (b) the conversion of the computer programs for statistical processing of hydrologic data into the new computer environment; (c) the development of software for hydrologic data processing and the processing of the Sterea Hellas data; (d) the development of a geographical information system for hydrological and hydrogeological information; (e) the review of existing studies regarding water uses; (f) the collection, evaluation and organising of hydrogeological data; and (g) the hydrogeological study of selected watersheds.
AFORISM: A comprehensive forecasting system for flood risk mitigation and control
Duration: June 1991–May 1994
Budget: 17 300 000 DRS (about €83 900)
Commissioned by: DGXII / FP6-SUSTDEV-2005-3.II.1.2
Contractor: University of Bologna
Collaborators:
Project director: Th. Xanthopoulos
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
Programme: EPOCH
The aim of this project is the development of a comprehensive flood forecasting system and the study of alternative management policies intending to flood risk mitigation. The Greek research team contributes to AFORISM in the following tasks: (a) the analysis of intense rainfall events and their classification by weather type as well as the modelling of intense rainfall and the production of alternative hyetographs of temporal evolution of rainfall; (b) the comparison of the alternative rainfall-runoff models, using multiple time steps in modelling rainfall-runoff and applying it to Greek hydrological basins. The contribution of the other research teams deal with: (a) the forecasting of spatial-temporal evolution of rainfall using limited area models; (b) the development of optimisation models in order to mitigate flood risks; (c) the development of an expert system for flood management; (d) the development of a geographical information system for visualisation of the evaluation of flood and its consequences; and (e) the integration of the forecast and control system in the Reno basin (Italy).
Development of a relational data base for management and processing of hydrometric information
Duration: September 1991–May 1993
Commissioned by: General Secretariat of Research and Technology
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: Th. Xanthopoulos
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
Programme: ΠΕΝΕΔ/1989
This project aims in utilising modern computer techniques, namely relational databases, for the management of hydrological data, and, to some extent, river flow data. It also aims in the development of software for data entry, testing, presentation, and processing of the data. Specifically, it includes: (1) development of specifications, and selection, purchase and installation of a relational database system; (2) database design on conceptual and physical level; (3) development of software for data entry and preliminary testing of data, and for conversion of data already available in other systems; (4) development of software for data processing (e.g. generation of hourly discharge time series from stage recorder tapes and discharge measurements); and (5) development of software for viewing and printing the raw hydrological data and their statistical characteristics, as well as standardisation of the most important database queries (e.g. mean discharge, maximum discharge, discharge correlation between different positions or basins, etc.)
Evaluation of Management of the Water Resources of Sterea Hellas - Phase 1
Duration: December 1990–November 1992
Commissioned by: Directorate of Water Supply and Sewage
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: Th. Xanthopoulos
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
The main objectives of the research project are the evaluation and management of the water resources, both surface and subsurface, of the Sterea Hellas region, and the systematic study of all parameters related to the rational development and management of the water resources of this region. Another objective of the project, considered as an infrastructure work, is the development of software for the hydrological, hydrogeological and operational simulation of the combined catchments of the study area. The development of the software and, at the same time, the development of methodologies suitable for the Greek conditions will assist in decision-making concerning the water resources management of Sterea Hellas and of other Greek regions. The project also aims at the improving of the cooperation between the National Technical University of Athens and the Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works. This is considered as a necessary condition for the continuous updating of the project results as well as for the rational analysis of the water resource problems of the Sterea Hellas region. The specific objective of Phase 1 is the collection and the organising of the surface water data and the development of hydrological simulation programs.
A pilot study for the management of the Louros and Arachthos watersheds
Duration: June 1989–April 1991
Commissioned by: Directorate of Water and Natural Resources
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Collaborators:
Project director: Th. Xanthopoulos
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
The objective of the pilot study is the combined management of the surface and subsurface water resources of the Louros and Arachthos watersheds. The main target is to obtain an insight of the interrelation of the relevant quantities, to draw conclusions regarding the management of water resources of the two catchments, and to locate the issues that will require further research. An additional objective is the development of a methodology for water resources planning and management, which can be applied to other watersheds or water districts in Greece.
Appraisal of existing potential for improving the water supply of greater Athens - Phase 2
Duration: May 1989–June 1990
Commissioned by: Directorate of Water Supply and Sewage
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: Th. Xanthopoulos
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
The project includes the following main components: (1) Processing and analysis of the available hydrometeorological data and estimation of the water potential of the Mornos, Evinos and Yliki watersheds. (2) Hydrologic design study of alternative reservoirs in the Evinos River basin combined with the operation of the Mornos reservoir. (3) Study for improving of the hydrometeorological measuring system at Mornos and Evinos watersheds. (4) Evaluation of the exploitable water potential of the Yliki Lake and the alternative rational ways of its management, both under the current conditions and future conditions, without or with the Evinos reservoir. (5) Development of methodologies and computer programs for the support of the rational scheduling of the water release from Yliki.
Appraisal of existing potential for improving the water supply of greater Athens - Phase 1
Duration: November 1987–February 1989
Commissioned by: Directorate of Water Supply and Sewage
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: Th. Xanthopoulos
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
This project aims at organising the hydrological information in the Mornos and Evinos watersheds, and more specifically, the collection, the evaluation, the archiving and the processing of hydrometeorological data of these basins. The project also deals with the estimation of the actual release capacity of the Mornos reservoir and the appraisal of the alternatives for improving it by diverting water from the Evinos River.
Hydrological investigation of the Thessalia water basin
Duration: July 1986–October 1988
Commissioned by: Division of Acheloos Diversion Works
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: Th. Xanthopoulos
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
The project aims at organising the hydrological information in the Thessalia water district, and more specifically, the collection, the evaluation, the archiving and the processing of hydrometeorological data of the district. The project also deals with the development of an appropriate hydrological infrastructure (criteria and hydrologic design parameters) to support the studies of the works for the development of the Thessalia Plain (irrigation projects, flood protection works and dams) also considering the planned diversion of the Acheloos River.
Development of Database and software applications in a web platform for the "National Databank for Hydrological and Meteorological Information"
Duration: December 2009–May 2011
Budget: €140 000
Commissioned by: Hydroscope Systems Consortium
Contractor: Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering
Project director: N. Mamassis
Principal investigator: N. Mamassis
The Ministry of Environment, Physical Planning & Public Works assigned to a consortium of consultancy companies the Project "Development of a new software platform for the management and operation of the National Databank for Hydrologic and Meteorological Information - 3rd Phase within a GIS environment and relevant dissemination actions". In the framework of the specific project a research team of NTUA undertakes a part as subcontractor. NTUA delivers methodologies for further development of the databases and applications of the Databank and their migration into a web platform (including the experimental node openmeteo.org for free data storage for the public). Specifically, using the knowhow that has been developed in the past by Research Teams from the Department of Water Resources of the School of Civil Engineering a database system and software applications (included hydrological models) are created fully adapted for operation over the Internet. NTUA's contribution is primarily on the design of the new system and the hydrological and geographical database the development of distibuted hydological models, the adaptation of the system to the WFD 2000/60/EC and on supporting dissemination activities. Finally NTUA will participate in the technical support and pilot operation of the project after its delivery from the consortium to the Ministry.
More information is available at http://www.hydroscope.gr/.
Observations, Analysis and Modeling of Lightning Activity in Thunderstorms, for Use in Short Term Forecasting of Flash Floods
Duration: October 2006–September 2009
Commissioned by: DGXII / FP6-SUSTDEV-2005-3.II.1.2
Contractor: National Observatory of Athens
Project director: K. Lagouvardos
Development of a Geographical Information System and an Internet application for the supervision of Kephisos protected areas
Duration: April 2008–March 2009
Budget: €30 000
Contractor: Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering
Project director: N. Mamassis
Principal investigator: N. Mamassis
The main purpose of the system is the supervision of the protected areas in Kephisos river basin. Using the applications that will be developed, the staff of Kephisos Institution will achieve the real time recording of various activities that are built up inside the limits of protection belts. Specifically, three main applications will be developed: (a) A Geographical Information System (GIS) (b) An General Positioning System Application (GPS) (c) An Internet application
EU COST Action C22: Urban Flood Management
Duration: June 2005–December 2007
Project director: C. Zevenbergen
The primary objective is to increase knowledge required for prevention and mitigation of potential flood impacts to urban areas by exchanging experiences, developing integrated approaches, and by promoting the diffusion of best practices in Urban Flood Management. Secondary objectives are to develop holistic approaches in Urban Flood Management, to initiate R&D projects for the EU 7th Framework programme, to stimulate national R&D activities and to increase awareness of the importance of flood management. The action includes three phases: (1) inventory (state-of-the-art relevant aspects of UFM), (2) analysis and integration (best practices and knowledge gaps), and (3) dissimination and consolidation. The action involves four working groups: (1) models and tools to assess flood probability and measures to reduce probability, (2) models and tools to assess impact of flooding to decrease vulnerability, (3) flood recovery methods and methods of damage compensation, and (4) non-technical measures and techniques to decrease vulnerability.
Investigation and remedy of the stability problems of the banks and bed of the Philothei Creek using mathematical models and modern environmental methods
Duration: March 2004–September 2004
Budget: €74 500
Commissioned by: Municipality of Philothei
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: A. Stamou
The effect of a series of alternative environmental-friendly works in the Philothei Creek, aiming at the ensuring of bed and banks stability, is investigated. The project includes (1) identification of the geometrical characteristics of the creek, (2) assessment of a series of alternative environmental-friendly works at specific sites, (3) examination of these works from the hydraulic point of view (hydrological and hydraulic modelling) and (4) formulation of final scheme of works and estimation of their cost.
Study and research network with applications in Greece and Cyprus
Duration: November 2000–November 2002
Commissioned by: General Secretariat of Research and Technology
Contractor: Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
Collaborators:
Project director: E. Sidiropoulos
Programme: ΕΠΑΝ
A Network for the Research of the Water Resources of Greece and Cyprus is created, whose objective is the theoretical and practical study of water resource problems that are met mostly in Cyprus, but also are relevant with Greek areas with similar hydroclimatic conditions.
Generation of spatially consistent rainfall data - Refinement and testing of simplified models
Duration: January 2001–December 2001
Commissioned by: UK Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food
Contractor: Imperial College, London
Collaborators: University College London
Project directors: V. S. Isham, H. S. Wheater
Assessment of sediment generation in Thriasio
Duration: January 2001–December 2001
Contractor: School of Civil Engineering
Project director: P. Marinos
Development of legislation framework for the drinking water of Athens
Duration: June 1999–May 2000
Commissioned by: Water Supply and Sewerage Company of Athens
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: M. Bonazountas
Generation of spatially consistent rainfall data
Duration: January 1999–January 2000
Commissioned by: UK Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food
Contractor: Imperial College, London
Collaborators: University College London
Project directors: V. S. Isham, H. S. Wheater
Integrated management of the riparian ecosystem of the Sperhios river
Duration: January 1995–May 1995
Commissioned by: European Union
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: M. Bonazountas
Programme: LIFE
A pilot study for the water resources management of the Epirus water district
Duration: September 1991–September 1993
Commissioned by: Directorate of Water and Natural Resources
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Collaborators:
Project director: Th. Xanthopoulos
Principal investigator: I. Nalbantis
The main objective is to obtain an insight of the interrelation of the water balance components of the Epirus water district. The methodology is based on an earlier project regarding the water resources of the Louros and Arachthos watersheds. The role of the research team of the National Technical University of Athens is to supervise the project and evaluate its results at each stage of the project.
Study of the measuring system of the aqueduct network of Athens - Phase 1
Duration: June 1990–December 1990
Commissioned by: Water Supply and Sewerage Company of Athens
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: Th. Xanthopoulos
Principal investigator: J. Gavriilidis
The objective of Phase 1 of the project is the testing of the reliability of the existing measuring system of the aqueduct network of Athens and the initial approximate estimation of the discharge capacities of the aqueducts.
Investigation of use of stormwater for irrigation - Application to the area of Archanes municipality
Duration: January 1988–December 1988
Commissioned by: Municipality of Archanes
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: G. Tsakiris
Environmental impacts of the irrigation project in the lake Mikri Prespa, Florina, Phase A
Duration: January 1987–December 1987
Commissioned by: Ministry of the National Economy
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: M. Bonazountas
Estimation and integrated management of the water resources and environment of the Aliakmon watershed
Duration: January 1982–January 1986
Commissioned by: General Secretariat of Research and Technology
Project director: Th. Xanthopoulos
Water quality and assimilative capacity investigations of Kalamas river and lake Pamvotis (Ioannina)
Duration: February 1984–December 1984
Commissioned by: Ministry of Planning, Housing and Environment
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Collaborators: Laboratory of Analytical Chemistry
Project director: Th. Xanthopoulos
The project components are the following: (1) Hydrological and hydraulic characteristics of the Kalamas River and the Lapsista ditch. (2) Water budget of the Pambotis Lake. (3) Sampling and water quality analyses. (4) Inventory of pollution sources. (5) Assessment of the potential of the development of the Ioannina area. (6) Inventory of water uses. (7) Formulation of pollution scenarios. (8) Fitting of a mathematical model for the pollution of the Kalamas River. (9) Conclusions regarding the water uses and the acceptable pollution loads.
Additional and supplementary hydraulic and flood protection works in the Kalamata region - Investigation of issues concerning the amendment of No. 122004/13-07-2004 AEPO of the project: "Tripoli - Kalamata Motorway, Tsakona - Kalamata section"
Duration: September 2022–October 2022
Budget: €20 000
Commissioned by: Regional Government of Peloponnesos
Contractor: IRMASYS
Pleriminary study of Almopaios dam
Duration: July 2014–July 2014
Commissioned by: Roikos Consulting Engeineers S.A.
Investigation of the hydrographic network development in Mavro Vouno, Grammatiko, Attica, Greece
Duration: May 2012–June 2012
Budget: €15 000
Commissioned by: Perifereiako Tameio Anaptyxis Attikis
Contractors:
Study of the management of Kephisos
Duration: June 2009–April 2010
Commissioned by: General Secretariat of Public Works
Contractors:
Delineation of the Arachthos River bed in the town of Arta
Duration: January 2009–February 2010
Commissioned by: Municipality of Arta
Contractors:
Specific Technical Study for the Ecological Flow from the Dam of Stratos
Duration: January 2009–June 2009
Commissioned by: Public Power Corporation
Contractor: ECOS Consultants S.A.
Development of tools for the water resource management of the hydrological district of Aegean islands
Duration: January 2003–December 2008
Commissioned by: Ministry of Development
Contractors:
Water resource management of the Integrated Tourist Development Area in Messenia
Duration: January 2003–December 2005
Commissioned by: TEMES - Tourist Enterprises of Messinia
Contractor: D. Argyropoulos
Technical consulting for the floods of Lower Acheloos and Edesseos
Duration: September 2004–June 2005
Budget: €21 000
Commissioned by: Public Power Corporation
Contractors:
Expertise for the quality control of engineering studies for the project "Water supply of Patra from Peiros and Parapeiros rivers"
Duration: October 2004–December 2004
Budget: €13 800
Commissioned by: Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works
Contractors:
Characterization of the size of Zaravina lake in Delvinaki area of the prefecture of Ioannina
Duration: September 2003–December 2004
Commissioned by: P. Mentzos
Contractor: D. Koutsoyiannis
Diversion of the Soulou Stream for the Development of Lignite Exploitations of the Public Power Corporation in the Mine of Southern Field of Region Kozani-Ptolemais
Duration: September 2004–October 2004
Budget: €3 000
Commissioned by: Public Power Corporation
Contractors:
Analysis of the effects of the water transfer through the tunnel Fatnicko Polje - Bileca reservoir on the hydrologic regime of Bregava River in Bosnia and Herzegovina
Duration: April 2004–June 2004
Commissioned by: Energy Financing Team, Switzerland
Contractors:
Study of sewerage and wastewater treatment of the Municipality of Ellomeno in Leukas
Duration: January 2004–February 2004
Hydraulic study for drainage of the Kanavari-Dombrena-Prodromos road
Duration: January 2004–January 2004
Commissioned by: Prefectural Government of Boeotia
Contractor: D. Argyropoulos
Hydrological and hydraulic study for the flood protection of the new railway in the region of Sperhios river
Duration: October 2002–January 2003
Budget: €90 000
Commissioned by: ERGA OSE
Contractor: D. Soteropoulos
Collaborators: D. Koutsoyiannis
Study of the enhancement of water flow in Lethaeos and Ayiaminiotis rivers
Duration: May 2002–December 2002
Commissioned by: Municipality of Trikala
Contractor: I. Tzeranis
Engineering consultant for the project "Water supply of Heracleio and Agios Nicolaos from the Aposelemis dam"
Duration: October 2000–December 2002
Budget: €1 782 000
Commissioned by: Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works
Contractor: Aposelemis Joint Venture
Flood Protection Works of Diakoniaris Stream, Preliminary Study
Duration: June 2002–July 2002
Budget: €5 000
Commissioned by: Directorate of Water Supply and Sewage
Contractors:
Collaborators:
Preliminary Water Supply Study of the Thermoelectric Livadia Power Plant
Duration: January 2001–December 2001
Contractor: Ypologistiki Michaniki
Study of the Segment Antirrio-Kefalovriso of the Western Road Axis
Duration: January 2001–December 2001
Commissioned by: General Secretariat of Public Works
Contractors:
Consultative service for the spring "Kephalovriso" in Kaloskope
Duration: May 2000–December 2001
Commissioned by: Association of Kaloskopi Parnassidas
Engineering study for the licence of positioning of the Valorema Small Hydroelectric Project
Duration: September 2001–September 2001
Commissioned by: YDROSAR
Contractor: D. Argyropoulos
Study of the Potamos River, Corfu
Duration: January 2001–June 2001
Commissioned by: Anaptyxiaki Demou Kerkyreon
Contractor: M. Papakosta
Complementary study of environmental impacts from the diversion of Acheloos to Thessaly
Duration: December 2000–February 2001
Commissioned by: Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works
Contractor: Ydroexigiantiki
Collaborators: D. Koutsoyiannis
Management study of the river Boeoticos Kephisos and the lakes Hylike and Paralimne
Duration: January 1998–December 2000
Commissioned by: Division of Land Reclamation Works
Contractor: ETME- Antoniou Peppas and Co.
Compilation of specifications and requirements for the elaboration of environmental impact studies for various works
Duration: November 1999–December 1999
Contractor: ECOS Meletitiki
Estimation of losses from DXX canal in the irrigation network of Lower Acheloos
Duration: January 1999–December 1999
Commissioned by: Division of Land Reclamation Works
Contractor: NAMA
Concerted actions for the sector of environment in Santorine and Therasia islands
Duration: November 1998–December 1998
Commissioned by: Cohesion Fund EU
Contractors:
Study of the water supply of the wider Rhodes from Gadouras dam: Aqueduct and water treatment plant
Duration: January 1998–December 1998
Commissioned by: Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works
Contractors:
Engineering report of the Korinthos sewer system, Study of the Xerias creek, Introductory part
Duration: January 1998–December 1998
Commissioned by: Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works
Contractor: Ydroexigiantiki
Engineering study of the hydraulic project of old and new river bed of Peneios in Larisa
Duration: January 1997–December 1997
Commissioned by: Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works
Contractors:
General outline of the Acheloos River diversion project
Duration: January 1996–December 1996
Contractor: Directorate for Acheloos Diversion Works
Collaborators:
Water resources management of the Evinos river basin and hydrogeological study of the Evinos karstic system
Duration: January 1996–December 1996
Commissioned by: Directorate of Water Supply and Sewage
Contractors:
Assessment of the influence of forest fire of 1995 in the increase of sediment yield of the Megalo Rema in Raphena
Duration: June 1996–November 1996
Commissioned by: Prefectural Government of Eastern Attica
Integrated study of the environmental impacts from Acheloos diversion
Duration: September 1995–December 1995
Contractor: Directorate for Acheloos Diversion Works
Collaborators: Ydroexigiantiki
Study of environmental impacts from the small hydroelectric work in Metsovitikos river
Duration: January 1995–December 1995
Contractor: Epsilon
Arachthos River, Aghios Nicolaos hydroelectric project, Engineering Report
Duration: November 1983–August 1994
Commissioned by: Public Power Corporation
Contractor: Arachthos Swiss-Anglo-German Consulting Group (ASAG)
Engineering study for improving the water supply of Athens with the construction of a dam at the Evinos River
Duration: January 1991–December 1991
Commissioned by: Directorate of Water Supply and Sewage
Contractors:
Master plan of the land reclamation works of the Arta plain
Duration: January 1990–December 1990
Commissioned by: Ministry of Agriculture
Contractors:
Study of the Faneromeni dam in Mesara, Crete - Engineering report
Duration: January 1988–December 1988
Commissioned by: Ministry of Agriculture
Contractors:
Engineering study of the regulation of the Kallithea Stream in Mytilene
Duration: January 1988–December 1988
Commissioned by: Ministry of National Education
Contractor: TENET
Study of the Plakiotissa dam in Mesara, Crete - Engineering report
Duration: January 1986–December 1986
Commissioned by: Ministry of Agriculture
Contractors:
Study of the wastewater treatment plant of Aghios Nicolaos, Crete
Duration: January 1984–December 1986
Commissioned by: Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works
Contractor: Joint Venture Akvantan-Tapeions-Talios
Engineering study of the flood protection works in the Boeoticos Kephisos river basin
Duration: January 1985–December 1985
Commissioned by: Ministry of Public Works
Contractor: D. Constantinidis
Engineering study of the flood protection and drainage works and the dam in the Artzan-Amatovo region
Duration: January 1982–December 1985
Commissioned by: Ministry of Public Works
Contractors:
Arachthos River, Steno - Kalaritikos hydroelectric project, Engineering Report
Duration: January 1984–August 1984
Commissioned by: Public Power Corporation
Contractor: Arachthos Swiss-Anglo-German Consulting Group (ASAG)
Study of the sewer system of Aghia Marina in Mesagros municipality, Aegina, Engineering report
Duration: January 1982–June 1984
Commissioned by: Prefectural Fund of Peiraias
Contractor: E. Vassilopoulos
Preliminary study of the water supply of Karystos and Kallianos municipalities from the Demosari springs
Duration: October 1982–May 1984
Commissioned by: Prefectural Fund of Euboea
Contractor: E. Vassilopoulos
Preliminary study of the reconstruction of the state-run saltern of Mesi, Komotene
Duration: January 1983–December 1983
Commissioned by: Ministry of the Industry
Contractors:
Engineering study of sewer system and the wastewater treatment plant of Farsala
Duration: January 1983–December 1983
Commissioned by: Ministry of Public Works
Contractor: METER
Master plan of Dereio dam
Duration: January 1983–December 1983
Commissioned by: Ministry of Public Works
Contractors:
Arachthos River, Middle Course hydroelectric projects, Master Plan
Duration: January 1983–October 1983
Commissioned by: Public Power Corporation
Contractor: Arachthos Swiss-Anglo-German Consulting Group (ASAG)
Study for the restoration, fixing, protection and prominence of the archaeological monument of Knossos
Duration: January 1983–January 1983
Commissioned by: Ministry of Culture and Sciences
Contractor: I. Skandalis
Collaborators:
Study of the sewer system of Neapolis, Lasithi, Engineering report
Duration: April 1982–January 1983
Commissioned by: Prefectural Fund of Lasithi
Contractor: G. Koukourakis and Colleagues
Alternative studies for the irrigation of the Lasithi plateau
Duration: January 1982–December 1982
Commissioned by: Prefectural Fund of Lasithi
Contractors:
Master plan of the foul sewer system of Kanallaki, Preveza
Duration: June 1982–December 1982
Commissioned by: Prefectural Fund of Preveza
Contractor: E. Vassilopoulos
Preliminary study of the sewer system of Kanallaki, Preveza
Duration: April 1981–June 1982
Commissioned by: Prefectural Fund of Preveza
Contractor: E. Vassilopoulos
Arachthos River, Middle Course hydroelectric projects, Alternative studies
Duration: October 1981–March 1982
Commissioned by: Public Power Corporation
Contractor: Arachthos Swiss-Anglo-German Consulting Group (ASAG)
Study of the sewer system of Aghia Marina in Mesagros municipality, Aegina, Preliminary study
Duration: September 1981–December 1981
Commissioned by: Prefectural Fund of Peiraias
Contractor: E. Vassilopoulos
Study of the sewer system of Neapolis, Lasithi, Master plan
Duration: August 1980–July 1981
Commissioned by: Prefectural Fund of Lasithi
Contractor: G. Koukourakis and Colleagues
Study of the sewer system of Neapolis, Lasithi, Alternative studies
Duration: January 1980–April 1980
Commissioned by: Prefectural Fund of Lasithi
Contractor: G. Koukourakis and Colleagues
Engineering study of restoration of the water supply of Karpenesi
Duration: January 1979–December 1979
Commissioned by: Prefectural Fund of Evritania
Contractor: A. Psilopoulos
Engineering study of the sewer system of the Karpenesi municipality
Duration: January 1979–December 1979
Commissioned by: Prefectural Fund of Evritania
Contractor: A. Psilopoulos
Engineering study of the sewer system of the Karpenesi municipality
Duration: January 1978–December 1978
Commissioned by: Prefectural Fund of Eleia
Contractor: A. Psilopoulos
D. Koutsoyiannis, Definite change since the formation of the Earth [Reply to Kleber, A. Comment on “Koutsoyiannis, D. Net isotopic signature of atmospheric CO2 sources and sinks: No change since the Little Ice Age. Sci 2024, 6, 17”], Sci, 6 (4), 63, doi:10.3390/sci6040063, 2024.
Careful inspection of the title and graphical abstract of the original paper would have eased the concerns expressed by Kleber in his Comment. The title of the original paper clarifies that it examines the period since the Little Ice Age, and during this period no change was found in the net isotopic signature of atmospheric CO2 sources and sinks. Obviously, this result should not and cannot be extended to longer periods such as the last glacial cycle, brought up by the Commentator, or to even longer periods. Definitely, there has been change ever since the formation of the Earth, and there always will be in the future. And even the last glacial cycle alone helps us to see this change.
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2498/1/documents/sci-06-00063.pdf (1209 KB)
N. Tepetidis, D. Koutsoyiannis, T. Iliopoulou, and P. Dimitriadis, Investigating the performance of the Informer model for streamflow forecasting, Water, 16 (20), 2882, doi:10.3390/w16202882, 2024.
Recent studies have shown the potential of transformer-based neural networks in increasing prediction capacity. However, classical transformers present several problems such as computational time complexity and high memory requirements, which make Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting (LSTF) challenging. The contribution to the prediction of time series of flood events using deep learning techniques is examined, with a particular focus on evaluating the performance of the Informer model (a particular implementation of transformer architecture), which attempts to address the previous issues. The predictive capabilities of the Informer model are explored and compared to statistical methods, stochastic models and traditional deep neural networks. The accuracy, efficiency as well as the limits of the approaches are demonstrated via numerical benchmarks relating to real river streamflow applications. Using daily flow data from the River Test in England as the main case study, we conduct a rigorous evaluation of the Informer efficacy in capturing the complex temporal dependencies inherent in streamflow time series. The analysis is extended to encompass diverse time series datasets from various locations (>100) in the United Kingdom, providing insights into the generalizability of the Informer. The results highlight the superiority of the Informer model over established forecasting methods, especially regarding the LSTF problem. For a forecast horizon of 168 days, the Informer model achieves an NSE of 0.8 and maintains a MAPE below 10%, while the second-best model (LSTM) only achieves −0.63 and 25%, respectively. Furthermore, it is observed that the dependence structure of time series, as expressed by the climacogram, affects the performance of the Informer network.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2497/1/documents/water-16-02882-v2.pdf (6067 KB)
A. Pizarro, P Acuña, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Past, present, and future of the Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics in Stochastics: A bibliometric analysis of the last 50 years in water resources, Journal of Hydrology, 643, 132008, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132008, 2024.
Hurst’s paper on the Nile’s flow variability marked a pivotal moment in hydrology and beyond by introducing what was called the Hurst phenomenon. Independently, Kolmogorov developed a mathematical model describing this behaviour a decade earlier. The Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics (HKd) is used to express this phenomenon physically and mathematically, which is characterised by high uncertainty and persistence (across spatial and temporal scales) and challenges traditional analytical frameworks, particularly in water resources-related topics and implications in engineering designs. Given the importance of HKd, a bibliometric analysis of it in water resources is helpful to trace its historical development, current state, and (possible) future trajectories. The latter intends to offer a comprehensive perspective on HKd, serving as a guide for new readers seeking an entry point into this field. Using the Web of Science database, 617 publications from 1974 to 2023 are analysed, revealing a consistent growth trend in research outputs up to 2018. Collaborative efforts among researchers worldwide have been prominent, with the USA and China leading in international collaborations. High-impact journals on topics related to water resources and geosciences are primary outlets for research related to the HKd. Interestingly, only two journals published the 20 most cited papers on this topic. A clear pattern from “groundwater” to “streamflow” to “soil moisture” to “precipitation” was observed from the past to the present. Overall, this analysis provides a comprehensive overview of the past, present, and future trends in HKd research, and highlights its contribution to the scientific literature of water resources.
Remarks:
Free access at: https://authors.elsevier.com/c/1joUc52cufAhT
Additional material:
K. Papoulakos, T. Iliopoulou, P. Dimitriadis, D. Tsaknias, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Spatiotemporal clustering of streamflow extremes and relevance to flood insurance claims: a stochastic investigation for the contiguous USA, Natural Hazards, doi:10.1007/s11069-024-06766-z, 2024.
Recent research highlights the importance of Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics (else known as long-range dependence), characterized by strong correlation and high uncertainty in large scales, in flood risk assessment, particularly in the dynamics of flood occurrence and duration. While several catastrophe modeling professionals nowadays incorporate scenarios that account for previous historical extreme events, traditional flood risk estimation assumes temporal independence of such events, overlooking the role of long-range dependence that has been observed in hydrometeorological processes. This study delves into the validity implications of these assumptions, investigating both the empirical properties of streamflow extremes from the US-CAMELS dataset and the ones of flood insurance claims from the recently published FEMA National Flood Insurance Program database. Analyzing the US-CAMELS dataset, we explore the impact of streamflow’s clustering dynamics on return periods, event duration, and severity of the over-threshold events and corroborate empirical findings with stochastic simulations reproducing the observed dynamics. Results show that for all clustering indices, the divergence between the properties of the observed and the shuffled (randomized, considered as independent) time series is pronounced in many gauges. The latter suggests a deviation from the independence assumption and a clear indication for the existence of clustering in streamflow extremes which is further quantified through a stochastic investigation based on the HK dynamics, indicating a persistent behavior. Furthermore, the apparent existence of clustering mechanisms in streamflow extremes is shown to be associated with spatiotemporal clustering in related insurance claims in the USA, yet with spatially variable patterns reflecting different flood generating mechanisms.
D. Koutsoyiannis, Refined reservoir routing (RRR) and its application to atmospheric carbon dioxide balance, Water, 16 (17), 2402, doi:10.3390/w16172402, 2024.
Reservoir routing has been a routine procedure in hydrology, hydraulics and water management. It is typically based on the mass balance (continuity equation) and a conceptual equation relating storage and outflow. If the latter is linear, then there exists an analytical solution of the resulting differential equation, which can directly be utilized to find the outflow from known inflow and to obtain macroscopic characteristics of the process, such as response and residence times, and their distribution functions. Here we refine the reservoir routing framework and extend it to find approximate solutions for nonlinear cases. The proposed framework can also be useful for climatic tasks, such as describing the mass balance of atmospheric carbon dioxide and determining characteristic residence times, which have been an issue of controversy. Application of the theoretical framework results in excellent agreement with real-world data. In this manner, we easily quantify the atmospheric carbon exchanges and obtain reliable and intuitive results, without the need to resort to complex climate models. The mean residence time of atmospheric carbon dioxide turns out to be about four years, and the response time is smaller than that, thus opposing the much longer mainstream estimates.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2474/1/documents/water-16-02402-v2.pdf (10283 KB)
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic assessment of temperature – CO₂ causal relationship in climate from the Phanerozoic through modern times, Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 21 (7), 6560–6602, doi:10.3934/mbe.2024287, 2024.
As a result of recent research, a new stochastic methodology of assessing causality was developed. Its application to instrumental measurements of temperature (T) and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO₂]) over the last seven decades provided evidence for a unidirectional, potentially causal link between T as the cause and [CO₂] as the effect. Here, I refine and extend this methodology and apply it to both paleoclimatic proxy data and instrumental data of T and [CO₂]. Several proxy series, extending over the Phanerozoic or parts of it, gradually improving in accuracy and temporal resolution up to the modern period of accurate records, are compiled, paired, and analyzed. The extensive analyses made converge to the single inference that change in temperature leads, and that in carbon dioxide concentration lags. This conclusion is valid for both proxy and instrumental data in all time scales and time spans. The time scales examined begin from annual and decadal for the modern period (instrumental data) and the last two millennia (proxy data), and reach one million years for the most sparse time series for the Phanerozoic. The type of causality appears to be unidirectional, T→[CO₂], as in earlier studies. The time lags found depend on the time span and time scale and are of the same order of magnitude as the latter. These results contradict the conventional wisdom, according to which the temperature rise is caused by [CO₂] increase.
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2467/1/documents/10.3934_mbe.2024287.pdf (1526 KB)
Additional material:
M.J. Alexopoulos, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, N. Bezak, M. Kobold, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Effects of Digital Elevation Model resolution on Rain-on-Grid simulations: a case study in a Slovenian watershed, Hydrological Sciences Journal, doi:10.1080/02626667.2024.2378487, 2024.
The study evaluates the Rain on Grid (RoG) hydraulic model’s sensitivity to Digital Elevation Model (DEM) resolution when simulating an extreme flood in Slovenia. The RoG model is validated against a high-resolution benchmark, showing strong agreement with a Kling-Gupta Efficiency of 0.913 and Pearson correlation of 0.964 for a 1 m DEM. Differences are observed in peak shapes and concentration times, attributed to rainfall propagation in RoG grids. DEM resolution significantly impacts performance, with the largest decrease between 1 m and 5 m resolutions. Coarser DEMs yielded higher depths, indicating slope decreases and terrain smoothing. The study concludes that high-resolution DEMs (<1m) are needed for adequate RoG performance, while commercially available coarser DEMs (30m) degraded accuracy and should be avoided using this method. Differences from semi-empirical concentration time models are also discussed, and an emphasis is given also on the impacts on water velocity and numerical stability.
K. Moraiti, S. Sigourou, P. Dimitriadis, R. Ioannidis, I. Benekos, T. Iliopoulou, O. Kitsou, N. Mamassis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and G.-F. Sargentis, Documenting the changing floodplain of Nileas Basin in North Euboea (Greece) before and after Storms Daniel and Elias, Rural and Regional Development, 2 (3), 10013, doi:10.35534/rrd.2024.10013, 2024.
The area of north Euboea is characterized by its intense relief, dense hydrographic network, and rich flora and fauna. In the mid-2010s, the region was struck by a plane tree disease that withered the large population of plane trees in the area, while in 2021, a large wildfire completely burned the forest. These unfortunate events depleted the landscape’s natural ability to manage and mitigate flood phenomena. Observing the landscape’s vulnerability to floods, in April 2023, we conduct on-site field inspections in the rivers of the area. In September 2023, a major flood hit the area, causing in dramatic changes to the landscape. Therefore, in November 2023, we conducted follow-up on-site field inspections in the area, in order to trace the differences, present the damages the phenomenon left behind. These inspections allowed to document the landscape changes from the combination of all previous events and identify any associated pathologies. Site visits and comparisons before and after the Daniel/Elias storm revealed dramatic changes in the riverbed width at lower altitudes, significant sediment accumulation in the Voudouros River delta, alterations in the natural landscape along the river and its floodplain, destruction of the arable land, and road collapses in several locations.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2465/1/documents/df859480db58f57a93db8ae1fd1e29cf.pdf (1896 KB)
Additional material:
T. Iliopoulou, D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Malamos, A. Koukouvinos, P. Dimitriadis, N. Mamassis, N. Tepetidis, and D. Markantonis, A stochastic framework for rainfall intensity–time scale–return period relationships. Part ΙΙ: point modelling and regionalization over Greece, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 69 (8), 1092–1112, doi:10.1080/02626667.2024.2345814, 2024.
In this work, we formulate a regionalization framework for rainfall intensity–time scale–return period relationships which is applied over the Greek territory. The methodology for single-site estimation is based on a stochastic framework for multi-scale modelling of rainfall intensity which is outlined in the companion paper. Five parameters are first fitted independently for each site and the resulting parameter variability is assessed. Following a systematic investigation of uncertainty and variability patterns, two parameters, i.e. the tail-index and a time scale parameter, are identified as constant in space and estimated using data pooling techniques. The other three parameters are regionalized over Greece by means of spatial interpolation and smoothing techniques that are assessed through cross-validation in a multi-model framework. The regionalization scheme is implemented in a sequential order that allows exploiting rainfall information both from rainfall stations with sub-daily resolution and from the more reliable network of daily raingauges.
Additional material:
See also: https://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/4TB9ZKAU4ARWKADERNXD/full?target=10.1080/02626667.2024.2345814
D. Koutsoyiannis, T. Iliopoulou, A. Koukouvinos, and N. Malamos, A stochastic framework for rainfall intensity–time scale–return period relationships. Part I: theory and estimation strategies, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 69 (8), 1082–1091, doi:10.1080/02626667.2024.2345813, 2024.
This work presents a stochastic framework for the construction of rainfall intensity–time scale–return period relationships, which was applied in the recent regionalization of design rainfall curves over the Greek territory, described in a companion paper. The methodology outlined herein builds upon a widely-used mathematical framework, which has been recently revisited and upgraded, and incorporates two different versions: (a) a theoretically consistent stochastic model applicable for rainfall intensity over any scale of interest; and (b) a simplified version valid over small scales, which makes parameter estimation easier. Special attention is given to the presentation of the simplified version, which suffices for most engineering tasks. Parameter estimation approaches are presented in detail, including the K-moments framework that allows for reliable high-order moment estimation and handling of bias due to spatiotemporal dependence.
Additional material:
See also: https://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/7GZTUDAI6IGZZANREA6T/full?target=10.1080/02626667.2024.2345813
E. Dimitriou, A. Efstratiadis, I. Zotou, A. Papadopoulos, T. Iliopoulou, G.-K. Sakki, K. Mazi, E. Rozos, A. Koukouvinos, A. D. Koussis, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Post-analysis of Daniel extreme flood event in Thessaly, Central Greece: Practical lessons and the value of state-of-the-art water monitoring networks, Water, 16 (7), 980, doi:10.3390/w16070980, 2024.
Storm Daniel initiated on 3 September 2023, over the Northeastern Aegean Sea, causing extreme rainfall levels for the following four days, reaching an average of about 360 mm over the Peneus basin, in Thessaly, Central Greece. This event led to extensive floods, with 17 human lives lost and devastating environmental and economic impacts. The automatic water-monitoring network of the HIMIOFoTS National Research Infrastructure captured the evolution of the phenomenon and the relevant hydrometeorological (rainfall, water stage, and discharge) measurements were used to analyse the event’s characteristics. The results indicate that the average rainfall’s return period was up to 150 years, the peak flow close to the river mouth reached approximately 1950 m3/s, and the outflow volume of water to the sea was 1670 hm3. The analysis of the observed hydrographs across Peneus also provided useful lessons from the flood-engineering perspective regarding key modelling assumptions and the role of upstream retentions. Therefore, extending and supporting the operation of the HIMIOFoTS infrastructure is crucial to assist responsible authorities and local communities in reducing potential damages and increasing the socioeconomic resilience to natural disasters, as well as to improve the existing knowledge with respect to extreme flood-simulation approaches.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2451/1/documents/water-16-00980.pdf (9512 KB)
See also: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/16/7/980
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
1. | Leivadiotis, E., S. Kohnová, and A. Psilovikos, Evaluating flood events caused by Medicane "Daniel" in the Thessaly District (Central Greece) using remote sensing data and techniques, Acta Hydrologica Slovaca, 25(1), 115-126, doi:10.31577/ahs-2024-0025.01.0013, 2024. |
2. | Mavroulis, S., M. Mavrouli, E. Lekkas, and A. Tsakris, Impact of the September 2023 storm Daniel and subsequent flooding in Thessaly (Greece) on the natural and built environment and on infectious disease emergence, Environments, 11(8), 163, doi:10.3390/environments11080163, 2024. |
3. | Papadopoulou, E. E., and A. Papakonstantinou, Combining drone LiDAR and virtual reality geovisualizations towards a cartographic approach to visualize flooding scenarios, Drones, 8(8), 398, doi:10.3390/drones8080398, 2024. |
4. | Stamos, I., and M. Diakakis, Mapping flood impacts on mortality at European territories of the Mediterranean region within the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) framework, Water, 16(17), 2470, doi:10.3390/w16172470, 2024. |
5. | #Flaounas, E., S. Dafis, S. Davolio, D. Faranda, C. Ferrarin, K. Hartmuth, A. Hochman, A. Koutroulis, S. Khodayar, M. M. Miglietta, F. Pantillon, P. Patlakas, M. Sprenger, and I. Thurnherr, Dynamics, predictability, impacts, and climate change considerations of the catastrophic Mediterranean Storm Daniel (2023), EGUsphere, doi:10.5194/egusphere-2024-2809, 2024. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, Net isotopic signature of atmospheric CO₂ sources and sinks: No change since the Little Ice Age, Sci, 6 (1), 17, doi:10.3390/sci6010017, 2024.
Recent studies have provided evidence, based on analyses of instrumental measurements of the last seven decades, for a unidirectional, potentially causal link between temperature as the cause and carbon dioxide concentration ([CO₂]) as the effect. In the most recent study, this finding was supported by analysing the carbon cycle and showing that the natural [CO₂] changes due to temperature rise are far larger (by a factor > 3) than human emissions, while the latter are no larger than 4% of the total. Here, we provide additional support for these findings by examining the signatures of the stable carbon isotopes, 12 and 13. Examining isotopic data in four important observation sites, we show that the standard metric δ¹³C is consistent with an input isotopic signature that is stable over the entire period of observations (>40 years), i.e., not affected by increases in human CO₂ emissions. In addition, proxy data covering the period after 1500 AD also show stable behaviour. These findings confirm the major role of the biosphere in the carbon cycle and a non-discernible signature of humans.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2444/1/documents/sci-06-00017-v4.pdf (8291 KB)
Additional material:
E. Rozos, J. Leandro, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic analysis and modeling of velocity observations in turbulent flows, Journal of Environmental & Earth Sciences, 6 (1), 45–56, doi:10.30564/jees.v6i1.6109, 2024.
Highly turbulent water flows, often encountered near human constructions like bridge piers, spillways, and weirs, display intricate dynamics characterized by the formation of eddies and vortices. These formations, varying in sizes and lifespans, significantly influence the distribution of fluid velocities within the flow. Subsequently, the rapid velocity fluctuations in highly turbulent flows lead to elevated shear and normal stress levels. For this reason, to meticulously study these dynamics, more often than not, physical modeling is employed for studying the impact of turbulent flows on the stability and longevity of nearby structures. Despite the effectiveness of physical modeling, various monitoring challenges arise, including flow disruption, the necessity for concurrent gauging at multiple locations, and the duration of measurements. Addressing these challenges, image velocimetry emerges as an ideal method in fluid mechanics, particularly for studying turbulent flows. To account for measurement duration, a probabilistic approach utilizing a probability density function (PDF) is suggested to mitigate uncertainty in estimated average and maximum values. However, it becomes evident that deriving the PDF is not straightforward for all turbulence-induced stresses. In response, this study proposes a novel approach by combining image velocimetry with a stochastic model to provide a generic yet accurate description of flow dynamics in such applications. This integration enables an approach based on the probability of failure, facilitating a more comprehensive analysis of turbulent flows. Such an approach is essential for estimating both short- and long-term stresses on hydraulic constructions under assessment.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2443/1/documents/JournalofEnvironmentalEarthSciences-6109.pdf (1035 KB)
G.-F. Sargentis, N. Mamassis, O. Kitsou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, The role of technology in the water–energy–food nexus. A case study: Kerinthos, North Euboea, Greece, Frontiers in Water, 6, 1343344, doi:10.3389/frwa.2024.1343344, 2024.
The water–energy–food (WEF) nexus is a basic element of prosperity, yet it is not equally distributed on the land. Human progress has optimized the function of the WEF nexus to bridge the inequality gap. In order to understand this progress, this study compares the preindustrial and modern agricultural practices in an area in Greece. Interviews were conducted with an elderly man who lived in the 1950s, and the process was quantified in units of WEF. The same procedure was also carried out with modern farmers for modern agricultural practices. In comparing the past and present agricultural processes, it is observed that today, a farmer can feed approximately 100 times more people. This feat has been achieved as modern practices push the land with energy sources in multiple ways (fuels and fertilizers). However, energy indices such as energy ratio, net energy gain, specific energy, and energy productivity do not seem to be improved. Furthermore, farmers prefer to pump underground water for irrigation, instead of utilizing the nearby river, as was done in the past when the river provided both energy to the watermill and an abundance of water for irrigation. In addition, as the price of wheat is dependent on the stock market, even in 2023, there are risks to food security, the cultivation of wheat was not economically efficient for farmers in this area in 2023.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2442/1/documents/frwa-06-1343344.pdf (4149 KB)
M. Piniewski, I. Jarić, D. Koutsoyiannis, and Z. W. Kundzewicz, Emerging plagiarism in peer-review evaluation reports: a tip of the iceberg?, Scientometrics, doi:10.1007/s11192-024-04960-1, 2024.
The phenomenon of plagiarism in peer-review evaluation reports remained surprisingly unrecognized, despite a notable rise of such cases in recent years. This study reports multiple cases of peer-review plagiarism recently detected in 50 different scientific articles published in 19 journals. Their in-depth analysis reveals that such reviews tend to be nonsensical, vague and unrelated to the actual manuscript. The analysis is followed by a discussion of the roots of such plagiarism, its consequences and measures that could counteract its further spreading. In addition, we demonstrate how increased availability and access to AI technologies through recent emergence of chatbots may be misused to write or conceal plagiarized peer-reviews. Plagiarizing reviews is a severe misconduct that requires urgent attention and action from all affected parties.
Additional material:
See also: https://rdcu.be/dz1ee
D. Koutsoyiannis, and C. Vournas, Revisiting the greenhouse effect—a hydrological perspective, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 69 (2), 151–164, doi:10.1080/02626667.2023.2287047, 2024.
Quantification of the greenhouse effect is a routine procedure in the framework of hydrological calculations of evaporation. According to the standard practice, this is made considering the water vapour in the atmosphere, without any reference to the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2), which, however, in the last century has escalated from 300 to about 420 ppm. As the formulae used for the greenhouse effect quantification were introduced 50-90 years ago, we examine whether these are still representative or not, based on eight sets of observations, distributed in time across a century. We conclude that the observed increase of the atmospheric CO2 concentration has not altered, in a discernible manner, the greenhouse effect, which remains dominated by the quantity of water vapour in the atmosphere, and that the original formulae used in hydrological practice remain valid. Hence, there is no need for adaptation of the original formulae due to increased CO2 concentration.
Remarks:
Free eprints: https://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/KHTD6INP6EFKXZF7V92E/full?target=10.1080/02626667.2023.2287047
Additional material:
T. Iliopoulou, P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Pluvial Flood Risk Assessment in Urban Areas: A Case Study for the Archaeological Site of the Roman Agora, Athens, Heritage, 6 (11), 7230–7243, doi:10.3390/heritage6110379, 2023.
Ancient monuments located in urbanized areas are subject to numerous short- and long-term environmental hazards with flooding being among the most critical ones. Flood hazards in the complex urban environment are subject to large spatial and temporal variability and, thus, require location-specific risk assessment and mitigation. We devise a methodological scheme for assessing flood hazard in urban areas, at the monument’s scale, by directly routing rainfall events over a fine-resolution digital terrain model at the region of interest. This is achieved using an open-source 2D hydraulic modelling software under unsteady flow conditions, employing a scheme known as ‘direct rainfall modelling’ or ‘rain-on-grid’. The method allows for the realistic representation of buildings and, thus, is appropriate for detailed storm-induced (pluvial) flood modelling in urbanized regions, within which a major stream is usually not present and conventional hydrological methodologies do not apply. As a case study, we perform a pilot assessment of the flood hazard in the Roman Agora, a major archaeological site of Greece located in the center of Athens. The scheme is incorporated within an intelligent decision-support system for the protection of monumental structures (ARCHYTAS), allowing for a fast and informative assessment of the flood risk within the monument’s region for different scenarios that account for rainfall’s return period and duration as well as uncertainty in antecedent wetness conditions.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2369/1/documents/heritage-06-00379.pdf (5102 KB)
N. Wang, F. Sun, D. Koutsoyiannis, T. Iliopoulou, T. Wang, H. Wang, W. Liu, G.-F. Sargentis, and P. Dimitriadis, How can changes in the human-flood distance mitigate flood fatalities and displacements?, Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (20), e2023GL105064, doi:10.1029/2023GL105064, 2023.
Comprehending the correlation between alterations in human-flood distance and flood fatalities (as well as displacements) is pivotal for formulating effective human adaptive strategies in response to floods. However, this relationship remains inadequately explored in existing global analyses. To address this gap, we examine 910 flood events occurring from 2000 to 2018, resulting in significant numbers of fatalities and displacements. We find that in 53% of countries, humans tend to distance from floods, particularly in the Middle East. Such distancing greatly mitigates flood fatalities and displacements. Simultaneously, in areas with increased flood protection level (FPL), humans are less likely to move away from floods. Furthermore, FPL and human-flood distance have decreased in regions affected by ice jam- and hurricane-induced floods from 2000 to 2018. Notably, regions with human-flood distance slightly below the average for a given flood type experience more severe flood fatalities.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2348/1/documents/2023GRL-Wang-ChangesInHumanFloodDistance.pdf (2069 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, C. Onof, Z. W. Kundzewicz, and A. Christofides, On hens, eggs, temperatures and CO₂: Causal links in Earth’s atmosphere, Sci, 5 (3), 35, doi:10.3390/sci5030035, 2023.
The scientific and wider interest in the relationship between atmospheric temperature (T) and concentration of carbon dioxide ([CO₂]) has been enormous. According to the commonly assumed causality link, increased [CO₂] causes a rise in T. However, recent developments cast doubts on this assumption by showing that this relationship is of the hen-or-egg type, or even unidirectional but opposite in direction to the commonly assumed one. These developments include an advanced theoretical framework for testing causality based on the stochastic evaluation of a potentially causal link between two processes via the notion of the impulse response function. Using, on the one hand, this framework and further expanding it and, on the other hand, the longest available modern time series of globally averaged T and [CO₂], we shed light on the potential causality between these two processes. All evidence resulting from the analyses suggests a unidirectional, potentially causal link with T as the cause and [CO₂] as the effect. That link is not represented in climate models, whose outputs are also examined using the same framework, resulting in a link opposite the one found when the real measurements are used.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2342/1/documents/sci-05-00035-v2.pdf (7279 KB)
Additional material:
N. Malamos, D. Koulouris, I. L. Tsirogiannis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Evaluation of BOLAM fine grid weather forecasts with emphasis on hydrological applications, Hydrology, 10 (8), 162, doi:10.3390/hydrology10080162, 2023.
The evaluation of weather forecast accuracy is of major interest in decision making in almost every sector of the economy and in civil protection. To this, a detailed assessment of Bologna Limited-Area Model (BOLAM) seven days fine grid 3 h predictions is made for precipitation, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed over a large lowland agricultural area of a Mediterranean-type climate, characterized by hot summers and rainy moderate winters (plain of Arta, NW Greece). Timeseries that cover a four-year period (2016–2019) from seven agro-meteorological stations located at the study area are used to run a range of contingency and accuracy measures as well as Taylor diagrams, and the results are thoroughly discussed. The overall results showed that the model failed to comply with the precipitation regime throughout the study area, while the results were mediocre for wind speed. Considering relative humidity, the results revealed acceptable performance and good correlation between the model output and the observed values, for the early days of forecast. Only in air temperature, the forecasts exhibited very good performance. Discussion is made on the ability of the model to predict major rainfall events and to estimate water budget components as rainfall and reference evapotranspiration. The need for skilled weather forecasts from improved versions of the examined model that may incorporate post-processing techniques to improve predictions or from other forecasting services is underlined.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2333/1/documents/hydrology-10-00162-v2pdf.pdf (8599 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Knowable moments in stochastics: Knowing their advantages, Axioms, 12 (6), 590, doi:10.3390/axioms12060590, 2023.
Knowable moments, abbreviated as K-moments, are redefined as expectations of maxima or minima of a number of stochastic variables that are a sample of the variable of interest. The new definition enables applicability of the concept to any type of variable, continuous or discrete, and generalization for transformations thereof. While K-moments share some characteristics with classical and other moments, as well as with order statistics, they also have some unique features, which make them useful in relevant applications. These include the fact that they are knowable, i.e., reliably estimated from a sample for high orders. Moreover, unlike other moment types, K-moment values can be assigned values of distribution function by making optimal use of the entire dataset. In addition, K-moments offer the unique advantage of considering the estimation bias when the data are not an independent sample but a time series from a process with dependence. Both for samples and time series, the K-moment concept offers a strategy of model fitting, including its visualization, that is not shared with other methods. This enables utilization of the highest possible moment orders, which are particularly useful in modelling extremes that are closely associated with high-order moments.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2304/1/documents/axioms-12-00590-v2.pdf (4157 KB)
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, T. Iliopoulou, A. Koukouvinos, N. Malamos, N. Mamassis, P. Dimitriadis, N. Tepetidis, and D. Markantonis, In search of climate crisis in Greece using hydrological data: 404 Not Found, Water, 15 (9), 1711, doi:10.3390/w15091711, 2023.
In the context of implementing the European Flood Directive in Greece, a large set of rainfall data was compiled with the principal aim of constructing rainfall intensity–timescale–return period relationships for the entire country. This set included ground rainfall data as well as non-conventional data from reanalyses and satellites. Given the European declaration of climate emergency, along with the establishment of a ministry of climate crisis in Greece, this dataset was also investigated from a climatic perspective using the longest of the data records to assess whether or not they support the climate crisis doctrine. Monte Carlo simulations, along with stationary Hurst–Kolmogorov (HK) stochastic dynamics, were also employed to compare data with theoretical expectations. Rainfall extremes are proven to conform with the statistical expectations under stationarity. The only notable climatic events found are the clustering (reflecting HK dynamics) of water abundance in the 1960s and dry years around 1990, followed by a recovery from drought conditions in recent years.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2287/1/documents/water-15-01711-v2.pdf (7639 KB)
Additional material:
P.E. O’Connell, G. O’Donnell, and D. Koutsoyiannis, On the spatial scale dependence of long-term persistence in global annual precipitation data and the Hurst Phenomenon, Water Resources Research, 59 (4), e2022WR033133, doi:10.1029/2022WR033133, 2023.
Precipitation deficits are the main physical drivers of droughts across the globe, and their level of persistence can be characterised by the Hurst coefficient H (0.5<H<1), with high H indicating strong long-term persistence (LTP). Previous analyses of point and gridded annual global precipitation datasets have concluded that LTP in precipitation is weak (H∼0.6) which is inconsistent with higher values of H for large river basins e.g. the Nile. Based on an analysis of gridded annual precipitation data for eight selected regions distributed across the globe, an important new finding is that H increases with the spatial scale of averaging, with mean H values at the grid and regional scale of 0.66 and 0.83, respectively. The discovery of enhanced LTP at the regional scale of averaging of precipitation has important implications for characterising the severity of regional droughts, as well as LTP in the annual flows of large rivers and recharge to major aquifers. Teleconnections with known modes of low frequency variability in the global climate system are demonstrated using correlation analysis and stepwise regression. Despite having several constituent regions exhibiting LTP, the Northern Hemisphere surprisingly has no LTP; this is shown to result from different modes of low frequency climatic variability cancelling each other out. LTP for the Southern Hemisphere is moderate, and weak for Global average precipitation. LTP in Blue Nile basin scale precipitation is shown to explain the Hurst Phenomenon in naturalised annual flows for the River Nile, more than seventy years after its discovery by Hurst.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2283/1/documents/2023WRR_OConnellEtAl.pdf (1620 KB)
Additional material:
A. Tegos, S. Stefanidis, J. Cody, and D. Koutsoyiannis, On the sensitivity of standardized-precipitation-evapotranspiration and aridity indexes using alternative potential evapotranspiration models, Hydrology, 10 (3), 64, doi:10.3390/hydrology10030064, 2023.
This paper examines the impacts of three different potential evapotranspiration (PET) models on drought severity and frequencies indicated by the standardized precipitation index (SPEI). The standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index is a recent approach to operational monitoring and analysis of drought severity. The standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index combines precipitation and temperature data, quantifying the severity of a drought as the difference in a timestep as the difference between precipitation and PET. The standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index thus represents the hydrological processes that drive drought events more realistically than the standardized precipitation index at the expense of additional computational complexity and increased data demands. The additional computational complexity is principally due to the need to estimate PET within each time step. The standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index was originally defined using the Thornthwaite PET model. However, numerous researchers have demonstrated the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index is sensitive to the PET model adopted. PET models requiring sparse meteorological inputs, such as the Thornthwaite model, have particular utility for drought monitoring in data scarce environments. The aridity index (AI) investigates the spatiotemporal changes in the hydroclimatic system. It is defined as the ratio between potential evapotranspiration and precipitation. It is used to characterize wet (humid) and dry (arid) regions. In this study, a sensitivity analysis for the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration and aridity indexes was carried out using three different PET models; namely, the Penman–Monteith model, a temperature-based parametric model and the Thornthwaite model. The analysis was undertaken in six gauge stations in California region where long-term drought events have occurred. Having used the Penman–Monteith model as the PET model for estimating the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index, our findings highlight the presence of uncertainty in defining the severity of drought, especially for large timescales (12 months to 48 months), and that the PET parametric model is a preferable model to the Thornthwaite model for both the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index and the aridity indexes. The latter outcome is worth further consideration for when climatic studies are under development in data scarce areas where full required meteorological variables for Penman–Monteith assessment are not available.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2276/1/documents/hydrology-10-00064-v2.pdf (2598 KB)
K. Kardakaris, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic simulation of wind wave parameters for energy production, Ocean Engineering, 274, 114029, doi:10.1016/j.oceaneng.2023.114029, 2023.
A combination of stochastic and deterministic models is applied for the study of ocean wind waves. Timeseries of significant wave height and mean zero up-crossing period, obtained from globally scattered floating buoys, are analyzed in order to construct a double periodic model, and select an optimal marginal distribution and dependence function for the description of the stochastic structure of wind waves. It is concluded that wind waves, in contrast to the atmospheric wind speed process, are mostly governed by the seasonal periodicity rather than the diurnal periodicity, which is often weak and can be neglected. Also, the Pareto-Burr-Feller distribution is found to be a fair selection among other common three-parameter marginal distributions. The dependence function is simulated through the Hurst-Kolmogorov (HK) dynamics using the climacogram (i.e., variance of the averaged process in the scale domain), a stochastic tool that can robustly estimate both the short-term fractal and long-range dependence behaviors both apparent at the wind wave process. To test the validity of the model, a stochastic synthesis of the wind wave process is performed through the Symmetric Moving Average scheme, focused on the explicit preservation of the probabilistic and the dependence structures. Finally, the stochastic model is applied for simulation to an offshore station southeast of Australia having one of the largest record lengths. The energy potential is also estimated through the significant wave height and the mean zero up-crossing period of both the synthetic and observed timeseries, and the effectiveness of the model is further discussed.
G.-F. Sargentis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, The function of money in water–energy–food and land nexus, Land, 12 (3), 669, doi:10.3390/land12030669, 2023.
The water–energy–food (WEF) and land nexus is a basic element of prosperity. However, the elements of WEF are not equally distributed, and the dynamics of trading drives the distribution of goods. Money controls the trading, but money is just a convention and not a stable measure. Therefore, we have used the data of gross domestic product (GDP) and the price of electricity of each country in order to convert money to stable energy units. To evaluate the role of money in the WEF nexus, we also convert all the elements of the nexus, in energy units. In addition, we observe that land is the base of WEF and is positively correlated with all of its elements. However, we find that even the richest countries are facing critical deficits in WEF. Adding the money (GDP in energy units) to the WEF nexus, the balance becomes positive and we conclude that trading is necessary for both survival and prosperity. This may be obvious, but at present, global geopolitical conflicts which use economic sanctions as a tool transform the global balance of the WEF nexus, putting the global prosperity in jeopardy.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2274/1/documents/land-12-00669-v2.pdf (3780 KB)
G.-F. Sargentis, R. Ioannidis, I. Bairaktaris, E. Frangedaki, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. D. Lagaros, Wildfires vs. sustainable forest partitioning, Conservation, 2 (1), 195–218, doi:10.3390/conservation2010013, 2022.
There is a widespread perception that every year wildfires are intensifying on a global scale, something that is often used as an indicator of the adverse impacts of global warming. However, from the analysis of wildfires that have occurred in the US, Canada, and Mediterranean countries, a trend that justifies this perception could not be identified. Arguably, instead of blaming climate change, research on the mitigation of wildfires should be re-directed to forest management policy and practices. Forests are admirable and complex natural ecosystems, and fires, albeit devastating, can be attributed to both human activity and to natural processes that contribute to their rebirth, with the latter constituting an intrinsic and perpetual process of the forest ecosystem. Other than their important ecological value, forests are, in the 21st century, also a capital resource, for many people’s livelihoods depend on them. In this study, we proposed a method for taking mitigation measures against wildfires based on the partitioning of forests, considering both the protection of the ecosystem and the inhabitants and aiming to utilize their co-dependent nature for the general protection and preservation of forests. As a case study, we analyzed the current devastating fire in Euboea (occurred in August 2021), initially in terms of the spatio-temporal progression of the actual wildfire that lasted several days and then by examining how an implementation of the proposed method in the study area could contribute to both the recovery of the ecosystem and the enhancement of the quality of life of the inhabitants as well as their long-term protection.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2281/1/documents/conservation-02-00013-v2.pdf (13186 KB)
D. Markantonis, G.-F. Sargentis, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, A. Siganou, K. Moraiti, M. Nikolinakou, I. Meletopoulos, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic Evaluation of the Investment Risk by the Scale of Water Infrastructures-Case Study: The Municipality of West Mani (Greece), World, 4 (1), 1–20, doi:10.3390/world4010001, 2022.
Social structure is based on the availability of the Water-Energy-Food Nexus. To cover these needs of society, several solutions of different scales of infrastructures coexist. The construction of infrastructure is capital-intensive; therefore, investment risk is always a consideration. In this paper, we try to evaluate the investment risk by interest rates (IR). We show that IR is a key indicator, which includes multiple parameters of prosperity expressing the political and economic status quo of the society. The selection of a particular scale influences the required capital and is thus one of the most critical decisions. Water supply infrastructure is one of the foundations of society, and the selection of the optimal scale of such infrastructure is often a great challenge in civil engineering. As a case study, we analyse three different scales of water supply infrastructures for the area of West Mani (Greece), i.e., dam, water ponds, and seawater desalination. We evaluate each case by the capital intensity by performing stochastic simulations of interest rates and identify the optimal solution as the one with the smallest median unit cost, in this case, the water ponds. In order to assess the impact of the development level of a country on the resulting unit cost stochastic properties we apply the optimal solution to various countries with different development levels and IR. We show that IR in the least developed countries, being generally higher and more variable, increases the unit cost, including its variability, which ultimately indicates higher investment risk.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2265/1/documents/world-04-00001-v2.pdf (4536 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Replacing histogram with smooth empirical probability density function estimated by K-moments, Sci, 4 (4), 50, doi:10.3390/sci4040050, 2022.
Whilst several methods exist to provide sample estimates of the probability distribution function at several points, for the probability density of continuous stochastic variables only a gross representation through the histogram is typically used. It is shown that the newly introduced concept of knowable moments (K-moments) can provide smooth empirical representations of the distribution function, which in turn can yield point and interval estimates of the density function at a large number of points or even at any arbitrary point within the range of the available observations. The proposed framework is simple to apply and is illustrated with several applications for a variety of distribution functions.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2256/1/documents/sci-04-00050-v2.pdf (4210 KB)
Additional material:
P.E. O’Connell, G. O’Donnell, and D. Koutsoyiannis, The spatial scale dependence of the Hurst coefficient in global annual precipitation data, and its role in characterising regional precipitation deficits within a naturally changing climate, Hydrology, 9 (11), 199, doi:10.3390/hydrology9110199, 2022.
Hurst’s seminal characterisation of long-term persistence (LTP) in geophysical records more than seven decades ago continues to inspire investigations into the Hurst phenomenon, not just in hydrology and climatology, but in many other scientific fields. Here, we present a new theoretical development based on stochastic Hurst–Kolmogorov (HK) dynamics that explains the recent finding that the Hurst coefficient increases with the spatial scale of averaging for regional annual precipitation. We also present some further results on the scale dependence of H in regional precipitation, and reconcile an apparent inconsistency between sample results and theory. LTP in average basin scale precipitation is shown to be consistent with LTP in the annual flows of some large river basins. An analysis of the crossing properties of precipitation deficits in regions exhibiting LTP shows that the Hurst coefficient can be a parsimonious descriptor of the risk of severe precipitation deficits. No evidence is found for any systematic trend in precipitation deficits attributable to anthropogenic climate change across the regions analysed. Future precipitation deficit risk assessments should, in the first instance, be based on stochastic HK simulations that encompass the envelope of uncertainty synonymous with LTP, and not rely exclusively on GCM projections that may not properly capture long-term natural variability in the climate. Some views and opinions are expressed on the implications for policy making in sustainable water resources management.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2253/1/documents/hydrology-09-00199.pdf (5649 KB)
G.-F. Sargentis, D. Koutsoyiannis, A. N. Angelakis, J. Christy, and A.A. Tsonis, Environmental determinism vs. social dynamics: Prehistorical and historical examples, World, 3 (2), 357–388, doi:10.3390/world3020020, 2022.
Environmental determinism is often used to explain past social collapses and to predict the future of modern human societies. We assess the availability of natural resources and the resulting carrying capacity (a basic concept of environmental determinism) through a toy model based on Hurst–Kolmogorov dynamics. We also highlight the role of social cohesion, and we evaluate it from an entropic viewpoint. Furthermore, we make the case that, when it comes to the demise of civilizations, while environmental influences may be in the mix, social dynamics is the main driver behind their decline and eventual collapse. We examine several prehistorical and historical cases of civilization collapse, the most characteristic being that of the Minoan civilization, whose disappearance c. 1100 BC has fostered several causative hypotheses. In general, we note that these hypotheses are based on catastrophic environmental causes, which nevertheless occurred a few hundred years before the collapse of Minoans. Specifically, around 1500 BC, Minoans managed to overpass many environmental adversities. As we have not found justified reasons based on the environmental determinism for when the collapse occurred (around 1100 BC), we hypothesize a possible transformation of the Minoans’ social structure as the cause of the collapse.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2247/1/documents/world-03-00020.pdf (10291 KB)
T. Iliopoulou, P. Dimitriadis, A. Siganou, D. Markantonis, K. Moraiti, M. Nikolinakou, I. Meletopoulos, N. Mamassis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and G.-F. Sargentis, Modern use of traditional rainwater harvesting practices: An assessment of cisterns’ water supply potential in West Mani, Greece, Heritage, 5 (4), 2944–2954, doi:10.3390/heritage5040152, 2022.
Water has always been a driver of human civilization. The first human civilizations thrived in places with an abundance of water, typically nearby large rivers as the Tigris–Euphrates, Yang Che and Nile. The invention and construction of hydraulic infrastructure came only later, in prehistoric times, triggered by the expansion of humanity in water-scarce areas. The ancient Greeks invented impressive hydraulic works and small-scale structures, some of which, such as cisterns, were still fully operational until the 20th century. We present a model that explains the use of cisterns in the water-scarce area of West Mani, which allows us to assess the potential of this traditional rainfall harvesting practice to support the modern water supply needs. To assess the system’s reliability, we employ a long-term simulation of a typical cistern system, using synthetic rainfall series from a stochastic model, and assuming variable water demand on a monthly scale. We show that a proper restoration of the cisterns could be sustainable as a complementary water supply source, decreasing the area’s drinking water cost and increasing the locals’ resilience against water shortages. In addition, we highlight the links between the area’s hydroclimate and its history and discuss the cultural merits of reviving and preserving this ancient, long practice.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2243/1/documents/heritage-05-00152-v3.pdf (4196 KB)
E. Rozos, J. Leandro, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Development of Rating Curves: Machine Learning vs. Statistical Methods, Hydrology, doi:10.3390/hydrology9100166, 2022.
Streamflow measurements provide valuable hydrological information but, at the same time, are difficult to obtain. For this reason, discharge records of regular intervals are usually obtained indirectly by a stage–discharge rating curve, which establishes a relation between measured water levels to volumetric rate of flow. Rating curves are difficult to develop because they require simultaneous measurements of discharge and stage over a wide range of stages. Furthermore, the shear forces generated during flood events often change the streambed shape and roughness. As a result, over long periods, the stage–discharge measurements are likely to form clusters to which different stage–discharge rating curves apply. For the identification of these clusters, various robust statistical approaches have been suggested by researchers, which, however, have not become popular among practitioners because of their complexity. Alternatively, various researchers have employed machine learning approaches. These approaches, though motivated by the time-dependent nature of the rating curves, handle the data as of stationary origin. In this study, we examine the advantages of a very simple technique: use time as one of the machine learning model inputs. This approach was tested in three real-world case studies against a statistical method and the results indicated its potential value in the development of a simple tool for rating curves suitable for practitioners.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2240/1/documents/hydrology-09-00166.pdf (2904 KB)
G.-F. Sargentis, N. D. Lagaros, G.L. Cascella, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Threats in Water–Energy–Food–Land Nexus by the 2022 Military and Economic Conflict, Land, doi:10.3390/land11091569, 2022.
The formation of societies is based on the dynamics of spatial clustering, which optimizes economies of scale in the management of the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus. Energy and food are determinant measures of prosperity. Using the WEF nexus as an indicator, we evaluate the social impacts of the current (2022) conflict and in particular the economic sanctions on Russia. As Russia and Ukraine are major global suppliers of energy sources, food, and fertilizers, new threats arise by their limitations and the rally of prices. By analyzing related data, we show the dramatic effects on society, and we note that cities, which depend on a wider area for energy and food supplies, are extremely vulnerable. This problem was substantially worsened due to the large-scale urbanization in recent decades, which increased the distance from food sources. We conjecture that the Western elites’ decision to sanction Russia dramatically transformed the global WEF equilibrium, which could probably lead to the collapse of social cohesion.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2239/1/documents/land-11-01569-v2.pdf (4700 KB)
A. Koskinas, E. Zacharopoulou, G. Pouliasis, I. Deligiannis, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Estimating the Statistical Significance of Cross–Correlations between Hydroclimatic Processes in the Presence of Long–Range Dependence, Earth, 3 (3), 1027-1041, doi:10.3390/earth3030059, 2022.
Hydroclimatic processes such as precipitation, temperature, wind speed and dew point are usually considered to be independent of each other. In this study, the cross–correlations between key hydrological-cycle processes are examined, initially by conducting statistical tests, then adding the impact of long-range dependence, which is shown to govern all these processes. Subsequently, an innovative stochastic test that can validate the significance of the cross–correlation among these processes is introduced based on Monte-Carlo simulations. The test works as follows: observations obtained from numerous global-scale timeseries were used for application to, and a comparison of, the traditional methods of validation of statistical significance, such as the t-test, after filtering the data based on length and quality, and then by estimating the cross–correlations on an annual-scale. The proposed method has two main benefits: it negates the need of the pre-whitening data series which could disrupt the stochastic properties of hydroclimatic processes, and indicates tighter limits for upper and lower boundaries of statistical significance when analyzing cross–correlations of processes that exhibit long-range dependence, compared to classical statistical tests. The results of this analysis highlight the need to acquire cross–correlations between processes, which may be significant in the case of long-range dependence behavior.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2234/1/documents/earth-03-00059-v3.pdf (5430 KB)
A. Pizarro, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, S. Manfreda, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic Analysis of the Marginal and Dependence Structure of Streamflows: From Fine-Scale Records to Multi-Centennial Paleoclimatic Reconstructions, Hydrology, 9 (7), 126, doi:10.3390/hydrology9070126, 2022.
The identification of the second-order dependence structure of streamflow has been one of the oldest challenges in hydrological sciences, dating back to the pioneering work of H.E Hurst on the Nile River. Since then, several large-scale studies have investigated the temporal structure of streamflow spanning from the hourly to the climatic scale, covering multiple orders of magnitude. In this study, we expanded this range to almost eight orders of magnitude by analysing small-scale streamflow time series (in the order of minutes) from ground stations and large-scale streamflow time series (in the order of hundreds of years) acquired from paleoclimatic reconstructions. We aimed to determine the fractal behaviour and the long-range dependence behaviour of the stream- flow. Additionally, we assessed the behaviour of the first four marginal moments of each time series to test whether they follow similar behaviours as suggested in other studies in the literature. The results provide evidence in identifying a common stochastic structure for the streamflow process, based on the Pareto–Burr–Feller marginal distribution and a generalized Hurst–Kolmogorov (HK) dependence structure.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2224/1/documents/hydrology-09-00126-v2_91IJ2Y4.pdf (1737 KB)
E. Rozos, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Montanari, KNN vs. Bluecat — Machine Learning vs. Classical Statistics, Hydrology, 9, 101, doi:10.3390/hydrology9060101, 2022.
Uncertainty is inherent in the modelling of any physical processes. Regarding hydrological modelling, the uncertainty has multiple sources including the measurement errors of the stresses (the model inputs), the measurement errors of the hydrological process of interest (the observations against which the model is calibrated), the model limitations, etc. The typical techniques to assess this uncertainty (e.g., Monte Carlo simulation) are computationally expensive and require specific preparations for each individual application (e.g., selection of appropriate probability distribution). Recently, data-driven methods have been suggested that attempt to estimate the uncertainty of a model simulation based exclusively on the available data. In this study, two data-driven methods were employed, one based on machine learning techniques, and one based on statistical approaches. These methods were tested in two real-world case studies to obtain conclusions regarding their reliability. Furthermore, the flexibility of the machine learning method allowed assessing more complex sampling schemes for the data-driven estimation of the uncertainty. The anatomisation of the algorithmic background of the two methods revealed similarities between them, with the background of the statistical method being more theoretically robust. Nevertheless, the results from the case studies indicated that both methods perform equivalently well. For this reason, data-driven methods can become a valuable tool for practitioners.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2199/1/documents/hydrology-09-00101.pdf (6832 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, C. Onof, A. Christofides, and Z. W. Kundzewicz, Revisiting causality using stochastics: 2. Applications, Proceedings of The Royal Society A, 478 (2261), 20210836, doi:10.1098/rspa.2021.0836, 2022.
In a companion paper, we develop the theoretical background of a stochastic approach to causality with the objective of formulating necessary conditions that are operationally useful in identifying or falsifying causality claims. Starting from the idea of stochastic causal systems, the approach extends it to the more general concept of hen-or-egg causality, which includes as special cases the classic causal, and the potentially causal and anti-causal systems. The framework developed is applicable to large-scale open systems, which are neither controllable nor repeatable. In this paper, we illustrate and showcase the proposed framework in a number of case studies. Some of them are controlled synthetic examples and are conducted as a proof of applicability of the theoretical concept, to test the methodology with a priori known system properties. Others are real-world studies on interesting scientific problems in geophysics, and in particular hydrology and climatology.
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, C. Onof, A. Christofides, and Z. W. Kundzewicz, Revisiting causality using stochastics: 1.Theory, Proceedings of The Royal Society A, 478 (2261), 20210835, doi:10.1098/rspa.2021.0835, 2022.
Causality is a central concept in science, in philosophy and in life. However, reviewing various approaches to it over the entire knowledge tree, from philosophy to science and to scientific and technological applications, we locate several problems, which prevent these approaches from defining sufficient conditions for the existence of causal links. We thus choose to determine necessary conditions that are operationally useful in identifying or falsifying causality claims. Our proposed approach is based on stochastics, in which events are replaced by processes. Starting from the idea of stochastic causal systems, we extend it to the more general concept of hen-or-egg causality, which includes as special cases the classic causal, and the potentially causal and anti-causal systems. Theoretical considerations allow the development of an effective algorithm, applicable to large-scale open systems, which are neither controllable nor repeatable. The derivation and details of the algorithm are described in this paper, while in a companion paper we illustrate and showcase the proposed framework with a number of case studies, some of which are controlled synthetic examples and others real-world ones arising from interesting scientific problems.
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Montanari, Climate extrapolations in hydrology: The expanded Bluecat methodology, Hydrology, 9, 86, doi:10.3390/hydrology9050086, 2022.
Bluecat is a recently proposed methodology to upgrade a deterministic model (D-model) into a stochastic one (S-model), based on the hypothesis that the information contained in a time series of observations and the concurrent predictions made by the D-model is sufficient to support this upgrade. The prominent characteristics of the methodology are its simplicity and transparency, which allow its easy use in practical applications, without sophisticated computational means. In this paper, we utilize the Bluecat methodology and expand it in order to be combined with climate model outputs, which often require extrapolation out of the range of values covered by observations. We apply the expanded methodology to the precipitation and temperature processes in a large area, namely the entire territory of Italy. The results showcase the appropriateness of the method for hydroclimatic studies, as regards the assessment of the performance of the climate projections, as well as their stochastic conversion with simultaneous bias correction and uncertainty quantification.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2192/1/documents/hydrology-09-00086.pdf (4692 KB)
N. Mamassis, S. Chrisoulaki, Aim. Bedenmaxer-Gerousis, T. Evangelou , P. Koutis, G. Peppas, P. Defteraios, N. Zarkadoulas, D. Koutsoyiannis, and E. Griva, Representing the operation and evolution of ancient Piraeus’ water supply system, Water History, doi:10.1007/s12685-022-00299-7, May 2022.
The newly excavated urban water supply system of the city of ancient Piraeus provides an excellent opportunity for the study and evaluation of the issues of sustainability, adaptability, simplicity and environmental protection, which are of main concern in modern engineering design practices. Well-digging in the area of Pireaus dates back to the city’ founding during the Classical period. However, scarcity of groundwaters stimulated development of water harvesting techniques, mainly cisterns for the collection of rain water, and to the gradual increase of their capacity in order to avoid overflows. Changes to land plot areas and the increase in water demand during the Hellenistic period affected the operation of cisterns triggering a variety of subterranean constructions that expanded the existing capacity. During the Roman period, the city’s water needs for domestic and public use skyrocketed beyond the supply capacity of the water resources of the Piraeus’ peninsula. On account of this, an aqueduct which transferred water from outside the peninsula was constructed in the 2nd century AD, while cisterns and wells were gradually abandoned. The present paper examines the operation of ancient Piraeus’ urban water supply system and its evolution across nine centuries by studying the operation and evolution of cisterns through a combination of excavation finds (from the Ephorate of Antiquities of Piraeus and the Islands) and quantitative techniques. Water consumption during several historical periods and the available water resources of the peninsula were quantified and a hydrologic model was developed to simulate the daily operation of the cisterns over an 82-year period. Various circumstances were examined by running numerous scenarios for the: (a) magnitude of collecting area, (b) annual water demand, and (c) capacity of the cisterns. For each scenario, the reliability of the hydro-system for supplying residences with water was estimated. Simulation results were then correlated with specific socio-economic characteristics of the corresponding historical periods.
Additional material:
T. Iliopoulou, N. Malamos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Regional ombrian curves: Design rainfall estimation for a spatially diverse rainfall regime, Hydrology, 9 (5), 67, doi:10.3390/hydrology9050067, 2022.
Ombrian curves, i.e., curves linking rainfall intensity to return period and time scale, are well-established engineering tools crucial to the design against stormwaters and floods. Though the at-site construction of such curves is considered a standard hydrological task, it is a rather challenging one when large regions are of interest. Regional modeling of ombrian curves is particularly complex due to the need to account for spatial dependence together with the increased variability of rainfall extremes in space. We develop a framework for the parsimonious modeling of the extreme rainfall properties at any point in a given area. This is achieved by assuming a common ombrian model structure, except for a spatially varying scale parameter which is itself modeled by a spatial smoothing model for the 24 h average annual rainfall maxima that employs elevation as an additional explanatory variable. The fitting is performed on the pooled all-stations data using an advanced estimation procedure (K-moments) that allows both for reliable high-order moment estimation and simultaneous handling of space-dependence bias. The methodology is applied in the Thessaly region, a 13 700 km² water district of Greece characterized by varying topography and hydrometeorological properties.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2188/1/documents/hydrology-09-00067-v3.pdf (9357 KB)
Additional material:
R. Ioannidis, N. Mamassis, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Reversing visibility analysis: Towards an accelerated a priori assessment of landscape impacts of renewable energy projects, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 161, 112389, doi:10.1016/j.rser.2022.112389, 2022.
Impacts to landscapes have been identified as major drivers of social opposition against renewable energy projects. We investigate how the process of mitigating landscape impacts can be improved and accelerated, through a re-conceptualization of visibility analysis. In their conventional format, visibility analyses cannot be implemented in early planning phases as they require the finalized locations of projects as input. Thus, visual impacts to landscapes cannot be assessed until late in development, when licensing procedures have already begun and projects' locations have already been finalized. In order to overcome this issue and facilitate the earlier identification of impactful projects we investigate the reversal of visibility analyses. By shifting the focus of the analyses from the infrastructure that generates visual impacts to the areas that have to be protected from these impacts, visibility analyses no longer require projects' locations as input. This methodological shift is initially investigated theoretically and then practically, in the region of Thessaly, Greece, computing Reverse - Zones of Theoretical Visibility (R-ZTVs) for important landscape elements of the region, in order to then project visual impacts to them by planned wind energy projects. It was demonstrated that reversing visibility analyses (a) enables the creation of R-ZTV-type maps that facilitate the anticipation of landscape impacts of projects from earlier planning stages and (b) discards the requirement for individual visibility analyses for each new project, thus accelerating project development. Furthermore, R-ZTV maps can be utilized in participatory planning processes or be used independently by projects' investors and by stakeholders in landscape protection.
Additional material:
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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R. Ioannidis, G.-F. Sargentis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Landscape design in infrastructure projects - is it an extravagance? A cost-benefit investigation of practices in dams, Landscape Research, doi:10.1080/01426397.2022.2039109, 2022.
Landscape design of major civil infrastructure works has often been undermined as a policy requirement or been neglected in practice. We investigate whether this is justified by technical challenges, high costs or proven lack of utility of landscape design of infrastructure, focussing on dam-design practice. Initially, we investigate global practice and identify 56 cases of dams in which landscape or architectural treatment has been applied. We then create a typology of utilised design techniques and investigate their contribution to improving landscape quality perception through literature review and through the analysis of photograph upload densities in geotagged photography databases. Finally, we investigate costs of landscape works, analysing three dam projects in detail. The results demonstrate that landscape design of civil infrastructure (a) improves landscape quality perception of infrastructures’ landscapes and (b) that its implementation can be both economically and technically feasible, especially if existing knowledge from best practices is utilised.
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Montanari, BLUECAT: Un metodo innovativo per stimare l’incertezza di previsioni di deflussi fluviali [BLUECAT: An innovative approach to assess uncertainty of river flow simulations], L'Acqua, 2022 (1), 51–58, 2022.
We present a new method for simulating and predicting hydrologic variables and in particular river flows, which is rooted in the probability theory and conceived in order to provide a reliable quantification of its uncertainty for operational applications. Our approach, which we term with the acronym "Bluecat", results from a theoretical and numerical development, and is conceived to make a transparent and intuitive use of the observations. Therefore, Bluecat makes use of a rigorous theory while at the same time proofing the concept that environmental resources should be managed by making the best use of empirical evidence and experience. We provide an open and user friendly software to apply the method to the simulation and prediction of river flows and test Bluecat's reliability for operational applications.
Additional material:
G.-F. Sargentis, E. Frangedaki, M. Chiotinis, D. Koutsoyiannis, S. Camarinopoulos, A. Camarinopoulos, and N. D. Lagaros, 3D scanning/printing: a technological stride in sculpture, Technologies, doi:10.3390/technologies10010009, 2022.
The creation of innovative tools, objects and artifacts that introduce abstract ideas in the real world is a necessary step for the evolution process and characterize the creative capacity of civilization. Sculpture is based on the available technology for its creation process and is strongly related to the level of technological sophistication of each era. This paper analyzes the evolution of basic sculpture techniques (carving, lost-wax casting and 3D scanning/printing), and their importance as a culture footprint. It also presents and evaluates the added creative capacities of each technological step and the different methods of 3D scanning/printing concerning sculpture. It is also an attempt to define the term “material poetics”, which is connected to sculpture artifacts. We conclude that 3D scanning/printing is an important sign of civilization, although artifacts lose a part of material poetics with additive manufacturing. Subsequently, there are various causes of the destruction of sculptures, leaving a hole in the history of art. Finally, this paper showcases the importance of 3D scanning/printing in salvaging cultural heritage, as it has radically altered the way we “backup” objects.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2175/1/documents/technologies-10-00009-v3.pdf (13152 KB)
A. Tegos, N. Malamos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, RASPOTION - A new global PET dataset by means of remote monthly temperature data and parametric modelling, Hydrology, 9 (2), 32, doi:10.3390/hydrology9020032, 2022.
Regional estimations of Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) are of key interest for a number of geosciences, particularly those that are water-related (hydrology, agrometeorology). Therefore, several models have been developed for the consistent quantification of different time scales (hourly, daily, monthly, annual). During the last few decades, remote sensing techniques have continued to grow rapidly with the simultaneous development of new local and regional evapotranspiration datasets. Here, we develop a novel set T maps over the globe, namely RASPOTION, for the period 2003 to 2016, by integrating: (a) mean climatic data at 4088 stations, extracted by the FAO-CLIMWAT database; (b) mean monthly PET estimates by the Penman–Monteith method, at the aforementioned locations; (c) mean monthly PET estimates by a recently proposed parametric model, calibrated against local Penman–Monteith data; (d) spatially interpolated parameters of the Parametric PET model over the globe, using the Inverse Distance Weighting technique; and (e) remote sensing mean monthly air temperature data. The RASPOTION dataset was validated with in situ samples (USA, Germany, Spain, Ireland, Greece, Australia, China) and by using a spatial Penman–Monteith estimates in England. The results in both cases are satisfactory. The main objective is to demonstrate the practical usefulness of these PET map products across different research disciplines and spatiotemporal scales, towards assisting decision making for both short- and long-term hydro-climatic policy actions.
Remarks:
The data accompanying the paper are open and available for free: https://ntuagr-my.sharepoint.com/:f:/g/personal/dkoutsog_ntua_gr/EvSuyFR7zl1Jiax1YKbPhW0BT9-swkLHdw-LuhGE4gd5Cg?e=OtYQMn
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2167/1/documents/hydrology-09-00032-v2.pdf (4154 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Montanari, Bluecat: A local uncertainty estimator for deterministic simulations and predictions, Water Resources Research, 58 (1), e2021WR031215, doi:10.1029/2021WR031215, 2022.
We present a new method for simulating and predicting hydrologic variables with uncertainty assessment and provide example applications to river flows. The method is identified with the acronym "Bluecat" and is based on the use of a deterministic model which is subsequently converted to a stochastic formulation. The latter provides an adjustment on statistical basis of the deterministic prediction along with its confidence limits. The distinguishing features of the proposed approach are the ability to infer the probability distribution of the prediction without requiring strong hypotheses on the statistical characterization of the prediction error (e.g. normality, homoscedasticity) and its transparent and intuitive use of the observations. Bluecat makes use of a rigorous theory to estimate the probability distribution of the predictand conditioned by the deterministic model output, by inferring the conditional statistics of observations. Therefore, Bluecat bridges the gaps between deterministic (possibly physically-based, or deep learning-based) and stochastic models as well as between rigorous theory and transparent use of data with an innovative and user-oriented approach. We present two examples of application to the case studies of the Arno River at Subbiano and Sieve River at Fornacina. The results confirm the distinguishing features of the method along with its technical soundness. We provide an open software working in the R environment, along with help facilities and detailed instructions to reproduce the case studies presented here.
Remarks:
The R code used in this paper can be downloaded from https://github.com/albertomontanari/hymodbluecat
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2166/1/documents/WaterResourcesResearch-2022-Koutsoyiannis-Bluecat.pdf (1850 KB)
Additional material:
P. Dimitriadis, A. Tegos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic analysis of hourly to monthly potential evapotranspiration with a focus on the long-range dependence and application with reanalysis and ground-station data, Hydrology, 8 (4), 177, doi:10.3390/hydrology8040177, 2021.
The stochastic structures of potential evaporation and evapotranspiration (PEV and PET or ETo) are analyzed using the ERA5 hourly reanalysis data and the Penman–Monteith model applied to the well-known CIMIS network. The latter includes high-quality ground meteorological samples with long lengths and simultaneous measurements of monthly incoming shortwave radiation, temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. It is found that both the PEV and PET processes exhibit a moderate long-range dependence structure with a Hurst parameter of 0.64 and 0.69, respectively. Additionally, it is noted that their marginal structures are found to be light-tailed when estimated through the Pareto–Burr–Feller distribution function. Both results are consistent with the global-scale hydrological-cycle path, determined by all the above variables and rainfall, in terms of the marginal and dependence structures. Finally, it is discussed how the existence of, even moderate, long-range dependence can increase the variability and uncertainty of both processes and, thus, limit their predictability.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2168/1/documents/hydrology-08-00177.pdf (3107 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, and G.-F. Sargentis, Entropy and wealth, Entropy, 23 (10), 1356, doi:10.3390/e23101356, 2021.
While entropy was introduced in the second half of the 19th century in the international vocabulary as a scientific term, in the 20th century it became common in colloquial use. Popular imagination has loaded “entropy” with almost every negative quality in the universe, in life and in society, with a dominant meaning of disorder and disorganization. Exploring the history of the term and many different approaches to it, we show that entropy has a universal stochastic definition, which is not disorder. Hence, we contend that entropy should be used as a mathematical (stochastic) concept as rigorously as possible, free of metaphoric meanings. The accompanying principle of maximum entropy, which lies behind the Second Law, gives explanatory and inferential power to the concept, and promotes entropy as the mother of creativity and evolution. As the social sciences are often contaminated by subjectivity and ideological influences, we try to explore whether maximum entropy, applied to the distribution of a wealth-related variable, namely annual income, can give an objective description. Using publicly available income data, we show that income distribution is consistent with the principle of maximum entropy. The increase in entropy is associated to increases in society’s wealth, yet a standardized form of entropy can be used to quantify inequality. Historically, technology has played a major role in the development of and increase in the entropy of income. Such findings are contrary to the theory of ecological economics and other theories that use the term entropy in a Malthusian perspective.
Remarks:
The extended summary is also posted in https://clintel.org/entropy-and-wealth/
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2150/1/documents/entropy-23-01356-v3.pdf (7617 KB)
Additional material:
N. Mamassis, K. Mazi, E. Dimitriou, D. Kalogeras, N. Malamos, S. Lykoudis, A. Koukouvinos, I. L. Tsirogiannis, I. Papageorgaki, A. Papadopoulos, Y. Panagopoulos, D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Christofides, A. Efstratiadis, G. Vitantzakis, N. Kappos, D. Katsanos, B. Psiloglou, E. Rozos, T. Kopania, I. Koletsis, and A. D. Koussis, OpenHi.net: A synergistically built, national-scale infrastructure for monitoring the surface waters of Greece, Water, 13 (19), 2779, doi:10.3390/w13192779, 2021.
The large-scale surface-water monitoring infrastructure for Greece Open Hydrosystem Information Network (Openhi.net) is presented in this paper. Openhi.net provides free access to water data, incorporating existing networks that manage their own databases. In its pilot phase, Openhi.net operates three telemetric networks for monitoring the quantity and the quality of surface waters, as well as meteorological and soil variables. Aspiring members must also offer their data for public access. A web-platform was developed for on-line visualization, processing and managing telemetric data. A notification system was also designed and implemented for inspecting the current values of variables. The platform is built upon the web 2.0 technology that exploits the ever-increasing capabilities of browsers to handle dynamic data as a time series. A GIS component offers web-services relevant to geo-information for water bodies. Accessing, querying and downloading geographical data for watercourses (segment length, slope, name, stream order) and for water basins (area, mean elevation, mean slope, basin order, slope, mean CN-curve number) are provided by Web Map Services and Web Feature Services. A new method for estimating the streamflow from measurements of the surface velocity has been advanced as well to reduce hardware expenditures, a low-cost ‘prototype’ hydro-telemetry system (at about half the cost of a comparable commercial system) was designed, constructed and installed at six monitoring stations of Openhi.net.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2147/1/documents/water-13-02779-v2.pdf (3567 KB)
See also: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/19/2779
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
1. | Spyrou, C., M. Loupis, N. Charizopoulos, P. Arvanitis, A. Mentzafou, E. Dimitriou, S. E. Debele, J. Sahani, and P. Kumar, Evaluating nature-based solution for flood reduction in Spercheios river basin Part 2: Early experimental evidence, Sustainability, 14(6), 10345, doi:10.3390/su141610345, 2022. |
2. | #Chrysanthopoulos, E., C. Pouliaris, I. Tsiroggianis, K. Markantonis, P. Kofakis, and A. Kallioras, Evaluating the efficiency of numerical and data driven modeling in forecasting soil water content, Proceedings of the 3rd IAHR Young Professionals Congress, 64-65, 2022. |
3. | #Samih, I., and D. Loudyi, Short-term urban water demand forecasting using Theta Models in Casablanca city, Morocco, Proceedings of the 3rd IAHR Young Professionals Congress, International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research, 2022. |
4. | Mazi, K., A. D. Koussis, S. Lykoudis, B. E. Psiloglou, G. Vitantzakis, N. Kappos, D. Katsanos, E. Rozos, I. Koletsis, and T. Kopania, Establishing and operating (pilot phase) a telemetric streamflow monitoring network in Greece, Hydrology, 10(1), 19, doi:10.3390/hydrology10010019, 2023. |
5. | Koltsida, E., N. Mamassis, and A. Kallioras, Hydrological modeling using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool in urban and peri-urban environments: the case of Kifisos experimental subbasin (Athens, Greece), Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 27, 917-931, doi:10.5194/hess-27-917-2023, 2023. |
6. | Tsirogiannis, I. L., N. Malamos, and P. Baltzoi, Application of a generic participatory decision support system for irrigation management for the case of a wine grapevine at Epirus, Northwest Greece, Horticulturae, 9(2), 267, doi:10.3390/horticulturae9020267, 2023. |
7. | Yeşilköy, S., Ö. Baydaroğlu, N. Singh, Y. Sermet, and I. Demir, A contemporary systematic review of cyberinfrastructure systems and applications for flood and drought data analytics and communication, EarthArXiv, doi:10.31223/X5937W, 2023. |
8. | Fotia, K., and I. Tsirogiannis, Water footprint score: A practical method for wider communication and assessment of water footprint performance, Environmental Sciences Proceedings, 25(1), 71, doi:10.3390/ECWS-7-14311, 2023. |
9. | Bloutsos, A. A., V. I. Syngouna, I. D. Manariotis, and P. C. Yannopoulos, Seasonal and long-term water quality of Alfeios River Basin in Greece, Water, Air and Soil Pollution, 235, 215, doi:10.1007/s11270-024-06981-1, 2024. |
10. | Kalantzopoulos, G., P. Paraskevopoulos, G. Domalis, A. Liopa-Tsakalidi, D. E. Tsesmelis, and P. E. Barouchas, The Western Greece Soil Information System (WΕSIS)—A soil health design supported by the internet of things, soil databases, and artificial intelligence technologies in Western Greece, Sustainability, 16(8), 3478, doi:10.3390/su16083478, 2024. |
11. | Pappa, D., A. Kallioras, and D. Kaliampakos, Water mismanagement in agriculture: a case study of Greece. Starting with “how” and "why", Al-Qadisiyah Journal For Agriculture Sciences, 14(1), 90-106, doi:10.33794/qjas.2024.149833.1175, 2024. |
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P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, G.-F. Sargentis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Spatial Hurst–Kolmogorov Clustering, Encyclopedia, 1 (4), 1010–1025, doi:10.3390/encyclopedia1040077, 2021.
The stochastic analysis in the scale domain (instead of the traditional lag or frequency domains) is introduced as a robust means to identify, model and simulate the Hurst–Kolmogorov (HK) dynamics, ranging from small (fractal) to large scales exhibiting the clustering behavior (else known as the Hurst phenomenon or long-range dependence). The HK clustering is an attribute of a multidimensional (1D, 2D, etc.) spatio-temporal stationary stochastic process with an arbitrary marginal distribution function, and a fractal behavior on small spatio-temporal scales of the dependence structure and a power-type on large scales, yielding a high probability of low- or high-magnitude events to group together in space and time. This behavior is preferably analyzed through the second-order statistics, and in the scale domain, by the stochastic metric of the climacogram, i.e., the variance of the averaged spatio-temporal process vs. spatio-temporal scale.
D. Koutsoyiannis, and P. Dimitriadis, Towards generic simulation for demanding stochastic processes, Sci, 3, 34, doi:10.3390/sci3030034, 2021.
We outline and test a new methodology for genuine simulation of stochastic processes with any dependence structure and any marginal distribution. We reproduce time dependence with a generalized, time symmetric or asymmetric, moving-average scheme. This implements linear filtering of non-Gaussian white noise, with the weights of the filter determined by analytical equations, in terms of the autocovariance of the process. We approximate the marginal distribu-tion of the process, irrespective of its type, using a number of its cumulants, which in turn deter-mine the cumulants of white noise, in a manner that can readily support the generation of random numbers from that approximation, so that it be applicable for stochastic simulation. The simulation method is genuine as it uses the process of interest directly, without any transformation (e.g., normalization). We illustrate the method in a number of synthetic and real-world applications, with either persistence or antipersistence, and with non-Gaussian marginal distributions that are bounded, thus making the problem more demanding. These include distributions bounded from both sides, such as uniform, and bounded from below, such as exponential and Pareto, possibly having a discontinuity at the origin (intermittence). All examples studied show the satisfactory performance of the method.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2137/1/documents/sci-03-00034-v3.pdf (3002 KB)
G.-F. Sargentis, P. Siamparina, G.-K. Sakki, A. Efstratiadis, M. Chiotinis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Agricultural land or photovoltaic parks? The water–energy–food nexus and land development perspectives in the Thessaly plain, Greece, Sustainability, 13 (16), 8935, doi:10.3390/su13168935, 2021.
Water, energy, land, and food are vital elements with multiple interactions. In this context, the concept of a water–energy–food (WEF) nexus was manifested as a natural resource management approach, aiming at promoting sustainable development at the international, national, or local level and eliminating the negative effects that result from the use of each of the four resources against the other three. At the same time, the transition to green energy through the application of renewable energy technologies is changing and perplexing the relationships between the constituent elements of the nexus, introducing new conflicts, particularly related to land use for energy production vs. food. Specifically, one of the most widespread “green” technologies is photovoltaic (PV) solar energy, now being the third foremost renewable energy source in terms of global installed capacity. However, the growing development of PV systems results in ever expanding occupation of agricultural lands, which are most advantageous for siting PV parks. Using as study area the Thessaly Plain, the largest agricultural area in Greece, we investigate the relationship between photovoltaic power plant development and food production in an attempt to reveal both their conflicts and their synergies.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2136/1/documents/sustainability-13-08935.pdf (2709 KB)
See also: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/16/8935
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
1. | Abouaiana, A., and A. Battisti, Multifunction land use to promote energy communities in Mediterranean region: Cases of Egypt and Italy, Land, 11(5), 673, doi:10.3390/land11050673, 2022. |
2. | Reasoner, M., and A. Ghosh, Agrivoltaic engineering and layout optimization approaches in the transition to renewable energy technologies: a review, Challenges, 13(2), 43, doi:10.3390/challe13020043, 2022. |
3. | Bhambare, P. S., and S. C. Vishweshwara, Design aspects of a fixed focus type Scheffler concentrator and its receiver for its utilization in thermal processing units, Energy Nexus, 7, 100103, doi:10.1016/j.nexus.2022.100103, 2022. |
4. | Padilla, J., C. Toledo, and J. Abad, Enovoltaics: Symbiotic integration of photovoltaics in vineyards, Frontiers in Energy Research, 10, 1007383, doi:10.3389/fenrg.2022.1007383, 2022. |
5. | Garcia, J. A., and A. Alamanos, Integrated modelling approaches for sustainable agri-economic growth and environmental improvement: Examples from Greece, Canada and Ireland, Land, 11(9), 1548, doi:10.3390/land11091548, 2022. |
6. | Dias, I. Y. P., L. L. B. Lazaro, and V. G. Barros, Water–energy–food security nexus—estimating future water demand scenarios based on nexus thinking: The watershed as a territory, Sustainability, 15(9), 7050, doi:10.3390/su15097050, 2023. |
7. | Goldberg, G. A., Solar energy development on farmland: Three prevalent perspectives of conflict, synergy and compromise in the United States, Energy Research & Social Science, 101, 103145, doi:10.1016/j.erss.2023.103145, 2023. |
8. | Lucca, E., J. El Jeitany, G. Castelli, T. Pacetti, E. Bresci, F. Nardi, and E. Caporali, A review of water-energy-food-ecosystems nexus research in the Mediterranean: Evolution, gaps and applications, Environmental Research Letters, 18, 083001, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ace375, 2023. |
9. | Zavahir, S., T. Elmakki, M. Gulied, H. K. Shon, H. Park, K. K. Kakosimos, and D. S. Han, Integrated photoelectrochemical (PEC)-forward osmosis (FO) system for hydrogen production and fertigation application, Journal of Environmental Chemical Engineering, 11(5), 110525, doi:10.1016/j.jece.2023.110525, 2023. |
10. | Karasmanaki, E., S. Galatsidas, K. Ioannou, and G. Tsantopoulos, Investigating willingness to invest in renewable energy to achieve energy targets and lower carbon emissions, Atmosphere, 14(10), 1471, doi:10.3390/atmos14101471, 2023. |
11. | Zhou, Z., H. Liao, H. Li, X. Gu, and M. M. Ageli, The trilemma of food production, clean energy, and water: COP27 perspective of global economy, Land Degradation and Development, 35(4), 1425-1436, doi:10.1002/ldr.4996, 2024. |
12. | Kock, S., R. Piastrellini, and A. P. Arena, Assessment of the water-energy-food nexus in the life cycle of energy products, Heliyon, doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e31961, 2024. |
13. | Sargentis, G. F., and M. Kougkia, Vulnerabilities of water-energy and food nexus in cities of digital era, Insight - Civil Engineering, 7(1), 608, doi:10.18282/ice.v7i1.608, 2024. |
14. | Chang, H., B. Zhang, J. Han, Y. Zhao, Y. Cao, J. Yao, and L. Shi, Evaluation of the coupling coordination and sustainable development of water–energy–land–food system on a 40-year scale: A case study of Hebei, China, Land, 13(7), 1089, doi:10.3390/land13071089, 2024. |
15. | Rosley, M. S. F., N. Z. Harun, J. N. Yusof, and S. R. Abdul Rahman, Empowering public participation in assessing the indicators of aesthetic value for historical landscape: a case study on Melaka, Malaysia, Cogent Arts & Humanities, 11(1), doi:10.1080/23311983.2024.2380114, 2024. |
16. | Wang, J., X. Cui, M. Zhao, T. Zheng, C. Tu, and Y. Zhang, Research on the synergy of the water–energy–food composite system in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, Water Policy, 26(9), 875-894, doi:10.2166/wp.2024.065, 2024. |
17. | Uzoechina, B. I., J. O. Ezekwike, G. A. Ekwoh, E. A. Eze, P. C. Imoagwu, and J. N. Edeh, Impact of energy consumption on life expectancy in lower-middle-income West African countries, Global Health Economics and Sustainability, 3518, doi:10.36922/ghes.3518, 2024. |
A. N. Angelakis, M. Valipour, A.T. Ahmed, V. Tzanakakis, N.V. Paranychianakis, J. Krasilnikoff, R. Drusiani, L.W. Mays, F. El Gohary, D. Koutsoyiannis, S. Khan, and L.J. Del Giacco, Water conflicts: from ancient to modern times and in the future, Sustainability, 13 (8), 4237, doi:10.3390/su13084237, 2021.
Since prehistoric times, water conflicts have occurred as a result of a wide range of tensions and/or violence, which have rarely taken the form of traditional warfare waged over water resources alone. Instead, water has historically been a (re)source of tension and a factor in conflicts that start for other reasons. In some cases, water was used directly as a weapon through its ability to cause damage through deprivation or erosion or water resources of enemy populations and their armies. However, water conflicts, both past and present, arise for several reasons; including territorial disputes, fight for resources, and strategic advantage. The main reasons of water conflicts are usually delimitation of boundaries, waterlogging (e.g., dams and lakes), diversion of rivers flow, running water, food, and political distresses. In recent decades, the number of human casualties caused by water conflicts is more than that of natural disasters, indicating the importance of emerging trends on water wars in the world. This paper presents arguments, fights, discourses, and conflicts around water from ancient times to the present. This diachronic survey attempts to provide water governance alternatives for the current and future.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2119/1/documents/sustainability-13-04237-v2.pdf (3322 KB)
S. Vavoulogiannis, T. Iliopoulou, P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Multiscale temporal irreversibility of streamflow and its stochastic modelling, Hydrology, 8 (2), 63, doi:10.3390/hydrology8020063, 2021.
We investigate the impact of time's arrow on the hourly streamflow process. Although time asymmetry, i.e., temporal irreversibility, has been previously implemented in stochastics, it has only recently attracted attention in the hydrological literature. Relevant studies have shown that the time asymmetry of the streamflow process is manifested at scales up to several days and vanishes at larger scales. The latter highlights the need to reproduce it in flood simulations of fine-scale resolution. To this aim, we develop an enhancement of a recently proposed simulation algorithm for irreversible processes, based on an asymmetric moving average (AMA) scheme that allows for the explicit preservation of time asymmetry at two or more timescales. The method is successfully applied to a large hourly streamflow time series from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) database, with time asymmetry prominent at time scales up to four days.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2116/1/documents/hydrology-08-00063-v2.pdf (2541 KB)
L. Katikas, P. Dimitriadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, T. Kontos, and P. Kyriakidis, A stochastic simulation scheme for the long-term persistence, heavy-tailed and double periodic behavior of observational and reanalysis wind time-series, Applied Energy, 295, 116873, doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116873, 2021.
Lacking coastal and offshore wind speed time series of sufficient length, reanalysis data and wind speed models serve as the primary sources of valuable information for wind power management. In this study, long-length observational records and modelled data from Uncertainties in Ensembles of Regional Re-Analyses system are collected, analyzed and modelled. The first stage refers to the statistical analysis of the time series marginal structure in terms of the fitting accuracy, the distributions’ tails behavior, extremes response and the power output errors, using Weibull distribution and three parameter Weibull-related distributions (Burr Type III and XII, Generalized Gamma). In the second stage, the co-located samples in time and space are compared in order to investigate the reanalysis data performance. In the last stage, the stochastic generation mathematical framework is applied based on a Generalized Hurst-Kolmogorov process embedded in a Symmetric-Moving-Average scheme, which is used for the simulation of a wind process while preserving explicitly the marginal moments, wind’s intermittency and long-term persistence. Results indicate that Burr and Generalized Gamma distribution could be successfully used for wind resource assessment, although, the latter emerged enhanced performance in most of the statistical tests. Moreover, the credibility of the reanalysis data is questionable due to increased bias and root mean squared errors, however, high-order statistics along with the long-term persistence are thoroughly preserved. Eventually, the simplicity and the flexibility of the stochastic generation scheme to reproduce the seasonal and diurnal wind characteristics by preserving the long-term dependence structure are highlighted.
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
P. Dimitriadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, T. Iliopoulou, and P. Papanicolaou, A global-scale investigation of stochastic similarities in marginal distribution and dependence structure of key hydrological-cycle processes, Hydrology, 8 (2), 59, doi:10.3390/hydrology8020059, 2021.
To seek stochastic analogies in key processes related to the hydrological cycle, an extended collection of several billions of data values from hundred thousands of worldwide stations is used in this work. The examined processes are the near-surface hourly temperature, dew point, relative humidity, sea level pressure, and atmospheric wind speed, as well as the hourly/daily streamflow and precipitation. Through the use of robust stochastic metrics such as the K-moments and a secondorder climacogram (i.e., variance of the averaged process vs. scale), it is found that several stochastic similarities exist in both the marginal structure, in terms of the first four moments, and in the secondorder dependence structure. Stochastic similarities are also detected among the examined processes, forming a specific hierarchy among their marginal and dependence structures, similar to the one in the hydrological cycle. Finally, similarities are also traced to the isotropic and nearly Gaussian turbulence, as analyzed through extensive lab recordings of grid turbulence and of turbulent buoyant jet along the axis, which resembles the turbulent shear and buoyant regime that dominates and drives the hydrological-cycle processes in the boundary layer. The results are found to be consistent with other studies in literature such as solar radiation, ocean waves, and evaporation, and they can be also justified by the principle of maximum entropy. Therefore, they allow for the development of a universal stochastic view of the hydrological-cycle under the Hurst–Kolmogorov dynamics, with marginal structures extending from nearly Gaussian to Pareto-type tail behavior, and with dependence structures exhibiting roughness (fractal) behavior at small scales, long-term persistence at large scales, and a transient behavior at intermediate scales.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2114/1/documents/hydrology-08-00059-v5.pdf (7374 KB)
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G.-F. Sargentis, T. Iliopoulou, P. Dimitriadis, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stratification: An entropic view of society's structure, World, 2, 153–174, doi:10.3390/world2020011, 2021.
In human societies, we observe a wide range of types of stratification, i.e., in terms of financial class, political power, level of education, sanctity, and military force. In financial, political, and social sciences, stratification is one of the most important issues and tools as the Lorenz Curve and the Gini Coefficient have been developed to describe some of its aspects. Stratification is greatly dependent on the access of people to wealth. By “wealth”, we mean the quantified prosperity which increases the life expectancy of people. Prosperity is also connected to the water‐food‐energy nexus which is necessary for human survival. Analyzing proxies of the water‐food‐energy nexus, we suggest that the best proxy for prosperity is energy, which is closely related to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and life expectancy. In order to describe the dynamics of social stratification, we formulate an entropic view of wealth in human societies. An entropic approach to income distribution, approximated as available energy in prehistoric societies, till present‐day economies, shows that stratification can be viewed as a stochastic process subject to the principle of maximum entropy and occurring when limits to the wealth of society are set, either by the political and economic system and/or by the limits of available technology.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2107/1/documents/world-02-00011-v3.pdf (10384 KB)
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Rethinking climate, climate change, and their relationship with water, Water, 13 (6), 849, doi:10.3390/w13060849, 2021.
We revisit the notion of climate, along with its historical evolution, tracing the origin of the modern concerns about climate. The notion (and the scientific term) of climate was established during the Greek antiquity in a geographical context and it acquired its statistical content (average weather) in modern times after meteorological measurements had become common. Yet the modern definitions of climate are seriously affected by the wrong perception of the previous two centuries that climate should regularly be constant, unless an external agent acts upon it. Therefore, we attempt to give a more rigorous definition of climate, consistent with the modern body of stochastics. We illustrate the definition by real-world data, which also exemplify the large climatic variability. Given this varia-bility, the term “climate change” turns out to be scientifically unjustified. Specifically, it is a pleo-nasm as climate, like weather, has been ever-changing. Indeed, a historical investigation reveals that the aim in using that term is not scientific but political. Within the political aims, water issues have been greatly promoted by projecting future catastrophes while reversing true roles and cau-sality directions. For this reason, we provide arguments that water is the main element that drives climate, and not the opposite.
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Blog discussions about this article
- Rethinking Climate, Climate Change, and Their Relationship with Water by Charles Rotter, 2020-10-05 (Watts Up With That?)
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2098/1/documents/water-13-00849-v4.pdf (5096 KB)
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Advances in stochastics of hydroclimatic extremes, L'Acqua, 2021 (1), 23–32, 2021.
The 21st century has been marked by a substantial progress in hydroclimatic data collection and access to them, accompanied by regression in methodologies to study and interpret the behaviour of natural processes and in particular of extremes thereof. The developing culture of prophesising the future, guided by deterministic climate modelling approaches, has seriously affected hydrology. Therefore, aspired advances are related to abandoning the certainties of deterministic approaches and returning to stochastic descriptions, seeking in the latter theoretical consistency and optimal use of available data.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2092/1/documents/2021_LACQUA_DK.pdf (8789 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, From mythology to science: the development of scientific hydrological concepts in the Greek antiquity and its relevance to modern hydrology, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 25, 2419–2444, doi:10.5194/hess-25-2419-2021, 2021.
Whilst hydrology is a Greek term, it has not been in use in the Classical literature but much later, during the Renaissance, in its Latin version, hydrologia. On the other hand, Greek natural philosophers created robust knowledge in related scientific areas, to which they gave names such as meteorology, climate and hydraulics. These terms are now in common use internationally. Within these areas, Greek natural philosophers laid the foundation of hydrological concepts and the hydrological cycle in its entirety. Knowledge development was brought about by search for technological solutions to practical problems, as well as by scientific curiosity to explain natural phenomena. While initial explanations belong to the sphere of mythology, the rise of philosophy was accompanied by attempts to provide scientific descriptions of the phenomena. It appears that the first geophysical problem formulated in scientific terms was the explanation of the flood regime of the Nile, then regarded as a paradox because of the spectacular difference from the river flow regime in Greece and other Mediterranean regions, i.e., the fact that the Nile flooding occurs in summer when in most of the Mediterranean the rainfall is very low. While some of the early attempts to explain it were influenced by Homer’s mythical view (archaic period), eventually, Aristotle was able to formulate a correct hypothesis, which he tested through what it appears to be the first in history scientific expedition, in the turn from the Classical to Hellenistic period. This confirms the fact that the hydrological cycle was well understood during the Classical period yet it poses the question why Aristotle’s correct explanation had not been accepted and, instead, ancient and modern mythical views had been preferred up to the 18th century.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2087/1/documents/hess-25-2419-2021.pdf (30835 KB)
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G.-F. Sargentis, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A stochastic view of varying styles in art paintings, Heritage, 4, 21, doi:10.3390/heritage4010021, 2021.
A physical process is characterized as complex when it is difficult to analyze and explain in a simple way, and even more difficult to predict. The complexity within an art painting is expected to be high, possibly comparable to that of nature. Herein, we apply a 2D stochastic methodology to images of both portrait photography and artistic portraits, the latter belonging to different genres of art, with the aim to better understand their variability in quantitative terms. To quantify the dependence structure and variability, we estimate the Hurst parameter, which is a common dependence metric for hydrometeorological processes. We also seek connections between the identified stochastic patterns and the desideratum that each art movement aimed to express. Results show remarkable stochastic similarities between portrait paintings, linked to philosophical, cultural and theological characteristics of each period.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2086/1/documents/heritage-04-00021.pdf (3242 KB)
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G.-F. Sargentis, R. Ioannidis, T. Iliopoulou, P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Landscape planning of infrastructure through focus points’ clustering analysis. Case study: Plastiras artificial lake (Greece), Infrastructures, 6 (1), 12, doi:10.3390/infrastructures6010012, 2021.
Even though landscape quality is largely a subjective issue, the integration of infrastructure into landscapes has been identified as a key element of sustainability. In a spatial planning context, the landscape impacts that are generated by infrastructures are commonly quantified through visibility analysis. In this study, we develop a new method of visibility analysis and apply it in a case study of a reservoir (Plastiras dam in Greece). The methodology combines common visibility analysis with a stochastic tool for visual-impacts evaluation; points that generate high visual contrasts in landscapes are considered Focus Points (FPs) and their clustering in landscapes is analyzed trying to answer two questions: (1) How does the clustering of Focus Points (FPs) impact the aesthetic value of the landscape? (2) How can the visual impacts of these FPs be evaluated? Visual clustering is calculated utilizing a stochastic analysis of generated Zones of Theoretical Visibility. Based on the results, we argue that if the visual effect of groups of FPs is positive, then the optimal sitting of FPs should be in the direction of faint clustering, whereas if the effect is negative, the optimal sitting of FPs should be directed to intense clustering. In order to optimize the landscape integration of infrastructure, this method could be a useful analytical tool for environmental impact assessment or a monitoring tool for a project’s managing authorities. This is demonstrated through the case study of Plastiras’ reservoir, where the clustering of positively perceived FPs is found to be an overlooked attribute of its perception as a highly sustainable infrastructure project.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2083/1/documents/infrastructures-06-00012-v2.pdf (5634 KB)
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A. Efstratiadis, I. Tsoukalas, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Generalized storage-reliability-yield framework for hydroelectric reservoirs, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 66 (4), 580–599, doi:10.1080/02626667.2021.1886299, 2021.
Although storage-reliability-yield (SRY) relationships have been widely used in the design and planning of water supply reservoirs, their application in hydroelectricity is practically nil. Here, we revisit the SRY analysis and seek its generic configuration for hydroelectric reservoirs, following a stochastic simulation approach. After defining key concepts and tools of conventional SRY studies, we adapt them for hydropower systems, which are subject to several peculiarities. We illustrate that under some reasonable assumptions, the problem can be substantially simplified. Major innovations are the storage-head-energy conversion via the use of a sole parameter, representing the reservoir geometry, and the development of an empirical statistical metric expressing the reservoir performance on the basis of the simulated energy-probability curve. The proposed framework is applied to numerous hypothetical reservoirs at three river sites in Greece, using monthly synthetic inflow data, to provide empirical expressions of reliable energy as a function of reservoir storage and geometry.
Additional material:
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
1. | Spanoudaki, K., P. Dimitriadis, E. A. Varouchakis, and G. A. C. Perez, Estimation of hydropower potential using Bayesian and stochastic approaches for streamflow simulation and accounting for the intermediate storage retention, Energies, 15(4), 1413, doi:10.3390/en15041413, 2022. |
2. | Levitin, G., L. Xing, and Y. Dai, Unrepairable system with single production unit and n failure-prone identical parallel storage units, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 222, 108437, doi:10.1016/j.ress.2022.108437, 2022. |
3. | Levitin, G., L. Xing, and Y. Dai, Minimizing mission cost for production system with unreliable storage, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 227, 108724, doi:10.1016/j.ress.2022.108724, 2022. |
4. | Levitin, G., L. Xing, and Y. Dai, Optimizing the maximum filling level of perfect storage in system with imperfect production unit, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 225, 108629, doi:10.1016/j.ress.2022.108629, 2022. |
5. | Levitin, G., L. Xing, and Y. Dai, Unrepairable system with consecutively used imperfect storage units, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 225, 108574, doi:10.1016/j.ress.2022.108574, 2022. |
6. | Ren, P., M. Stewardson, and M. Peel, A simple analytical method to assess multiple-priority water rights in carryover systems, Water Resources Research, 58(12), e2022WR032530, doi:10.1029/2022WR032530, 2022. |
7. | Santos Araújo, J. E., and A. B. Celeste, Explicit stochastic procedure for developing reservoir storage-yield-reliability-vulnerability relationships, Water Resources Management, doi:10.1007/s11269-024-03970-1, 2024. |
8. | Chanalata, B., R. Chango, K. Changoluisa, A. Ona, C. Sarango, and R. Hidalgo, Impacto de la generación de electricidad por energía hidráulica: Revisión de literatura y caso práctico, Revista Ingeniería e Innovación del Futuro, 3(2), 36-51, doi:10.62465/riif.v3n2.2024.80, 2024. |
K. Glynis, T. Iliopoulou, P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic investigation of daily air temperature extremes from a global ground station network, Stochastic Environmental Research & Risk Assessment, doi:10.1007/s00477-021-02002-3, 2021.
Near-surface air temperature is one of the most widely studied hydroclimatic variables, as both its regular and extremal behaviors are of paramount importance to human life. Following the global warming observed in the past decades and the advent of the anthropogenic climate change debate, interest in temperature’s variability and extremes has been rising. It has since become clear that it is imperative not only to identify the exact shape of the temperature’s distribution tails, but also to understand their temporal evolution. Here, we investigate the stochastic behavior of near-surface air temperature using the newly developed estimation tool of Knowable (K-)moments. K-moments, because of their property to substitute higher-order deviations from the mean with the distribution function, enable reliable estimation and an effective alternative to order statistics and, particularly for the outliers-prone distribution tails. We compile a large set of daily timeseries (30–200 years) of average, maximum and minimum air temperature, which we standardize with respect to the monthly variability of each record. Our focus is placed on the maximum and minimum temperatures, because they are more reliably measured than the average, yet very rarely analyzed in the literature. We examine segments of each timeseries using consecutive rolling 30-year periods, from which we extract extreme values corresponding to specific return period levels. Results suggest that the average and minimum temperature tend to increase, while overall the maximum temperature is slightly decreasing. Furthermore, we model the temperature timeseries as a filtered Hurst-Kolmogorov process and use Monte Carlo simulation to produce synthetic records with similar stochastic properties through the explicit Symmetric Moving Average scheme. We subsequently evaluate how the patterns observed in the longest records can be reproduced by the synthetic series.
Additional material:
G.-F. Sargentis, T. Iliopoulou, S. Sigourou, P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Evolution of clustering quantified by a stochastic method — Case studies on natural and human social structures, Sustainability, 12 (19), 7972, doi:10.3390/su12197972, 2020.
Clustering structures appearing from small to large scales are ubiquitous in the physical world. Interestingly, clustering structures are omnipresent in human history too, ranging from the mere organization of life in societies (e.g., urbanization) to the development of large-scale infrastructure and policies for meeting organizational needs. Indeed, in its struggle for survival and progress, mankind has perpetually sought the benefits of unions. At the same time, it is acknowledged that as the scale of the projects grows, the cost of the delivered products is reduced while their quantities are maximized. Thus, large-scale infrastructures and policies are considered advantageous and are constantly being pursued at even great scales. This work develops a general method to quantify the temporal evolution of clustering, using a stochastic computational tool called 2D-C, which is applicable for the study of both natural and human social spatial structures. As case studies, the evolution of the structure of the universe, of ecosystems and of human clustering structures such as urbanization, are investigated using novel sources of spatial information. Results suggest the clear existence both of periods of clustering and declustering in the natural world and in the human social structures; yet clustering is the general trend. In view of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, societal challenges arising from large-scale clustering structures are discussed.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2066/1/documents/sustainability-12-07972.pdf (8123 KB)
See also: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/19/7972/htm
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D. Koutsoyiannis, and Z. W. Kundzewicz, Atmospheric temperature and CO₂: Hen-or-egg causality?, Sci, 2 (4), 83, doi:10.3390/sci2040083, 2020.
It is common knowledge that increasing CO₂ concentration plays a major role in enhancement of the greenhouse effect and contributes to global warming. The purpose of this study is to complement the conventional and established theory that increased CO₂ concentration due to human emissions causes an increase of temperature, by considering the reverse causality. Since increased temperature causes an increase in CO₂ concentration, the relationship of atmospheric CO₂ and temperature may qualify as belonging to the category of “hen-or-egg” problems, where it is not always clear which of two interrelated events is the cause and which the effect. We examine the relationship of global temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration at the monthly time step, covering the time interval 1980–2019, in which reliable instrumental measurements are available. While both causality directions exist, the results of our study support the hypothesis that the dominant direction is T → CO₂. Changes in CO₂ follow changes in T by about six months on a monthly scale, or about one year on an annual scale. We attempt to interpret this mechanism by involving biochemical reactions, as at higher temperatures soil respiration, and hence CO₂ emission, are increasing.
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Blog discussions about this article
- New Study Finds Robust Statistical Probability Temperature Drives CO2 Changes, Upending ‘Scientific Perception’ by Kenneth Richard, 2020-10-05 (NoTricksZone)
- New Study: Strong Likelihood That Temperature Drives CO2 Changes—Reproduced #1 as #2 with comments by Kenneth Richard, 2020-10-05 (Climate Dispatch)
- Reproduced #1 in newscats.org
- Reproduced #2 in altnews.org
- Atmosfæretemperatur og CO2 by Geir Aaslid, 2020-10-11 (Klimarealistene)
- IPCC har förväxlat orsak och verkan, temperaturen driver luftens halt av CO₂ , 2020-10-13 (Klimatsans)
- Shock Study: CO2 Climate Theory Exposed During COVID Lockdown, by John O'Sullivan, 2020-10-13 (Principia Scientific)
- E’ nato prima l’uovo o la gallina?, by Donato Barone, 2020-10-20 (Climatemonitor)
- Temperature and Carbon Dioxide: Defying Alarmists, by Jack Dini, 2020-10-22 (Canada Free Press)
- Prima l’uovo o la gallina? 2.a parte: Una visione un po’ diversa, by Franco Zavatti, 2020-10-24 (Climatemonitor)
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2064/1/documents/sci-02-00083-v2.pdf (5476 KB)
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See also: https://www.mdpi.com/2413-4155/2/4/83
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R. Ioannidis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A review of land use, visibility and public perception of renewable energy in the context of landscape impact, Applied Energy, 276, 115367, doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115367, 2020.
Landscape impacts associated with aesthetics have been a persistent cause of opposition against renewable energy projects. However, the current uncertainty over the spatial extents and the rationality of reported impacts impedes the development of optimal strategies for their mitigation. In this paper, a typology of landscape impacts is formed for hydroelectric, wind and solar energy through the review of three metrics that have been used extensively for impact-assessment: land use, visibility and public perception. Additionally, a generic landscape-impact ranking is formed, based on data from realized projects, demonstrating that hydroelectric energy has been the least impactful to landscapes per unit energy generation, followed by solar and wind energy, respectively. More importantly, the analysis highlights the strengths and weaknesses of each technology, in a landscape impact context, and demonstrates that, depending on landscape attributes, any technology can potentially be the least impactful. Finally, a holistic approach is proposed for future research and policy for the integration of renewable energy to landscapes, introducing the maximum utilization of the advantages of each technology as an additional strategy in an effort to expand beyond the mitigation of negative impacts.
Remarks:
Download site: https://authors.elsevier.com/c/1bbKL15eiezzux
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Z. W. Kundzewicz, I. Pińskwar, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Variability of global mean annual temperature is significantly influenced by the rhythm of ocean-atmosphere oscillations, Science of the Total Environment, 747, 141256, doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141256, 2020.
While global warming has been evolving over several decades, in particular years there have been considerable deviations of global temperature from the underlying trend. These could be explained by climate variability patterns and, in particular, by the major interplays of atmospheric and oceanic processes that generate variations in the global climatic system. Here we show, in a simple and straightforward way, that a rhythm of the major ocean-atmosphere oscillations, such as the ENSO and IPO in the Pacific as well as the AMO in the Atlantic, is indeed meaningfully influencing the global mean annual temperature. We construct time series of residuals of the global temperature from the medium-term (5-year) running averages and show that these largely follow the rhythm of residuals of three basic ocean-atmosphere oscillation modes (ENSO, IPO and AMO) from the 5-year running averages. We find meaningful correlations between analyzed climate variability and deviations of global mean annual temperature residuals that are robust across various datasets and assumptions and explain over 70% of the annual temperature variability in terms of residuals from medium-term averages.
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G.-F. Sargentis, P. Dimitriadis, R. Ioannidis, T. Iliopoulou, E. Frangedaki, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Optimal utilization of water resources for local communities in mainland Greece (case study of Karyes, Peloponnese), Procedia Manufacturing, 44, 253–260, doi:10.1016/j.promfg.2020.02.229, 2020.
Water is the basis of our civilization and the development of society is intertwined with the exploitation of water resources in various scales, from a well dug to irrigate a garden, to a large dam providing water and energy for a large area. However, for remote mountainous areas, intermittent natural water resources and high seasonal demand the above tasks become challenging. Here we discuss various alternative management options and appropriate solutions on how to exploit water resources meeting the above restrictions under limited infrastructure budgets. As a case study we examine the area of Karyes in Peloponnese that meets the above criteria, exploring various solutions to satisfy the water demand.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2047/1/documents/1-s2.0-S2351978920308167-main.pdf (1660 KB)
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T. Iliopoulou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Projecting the future of rainfall extremes: better classic than trendy, Journal of Hydrology, 588, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125005, 2020.
Non-stationarity approaches have been increasingly popular in hydrology, reflecting scientific concerns regarding intensification of the water cycle due to global warming. A considerable share of relevant studies is dominated by the practice of identifying linear trends in data through in-sample analysis. In this work, we reframe the problem of trend identification using the out-of-sample predictive performance of trends as a reference point. We devise a systematic methodological framework in which linear trends are compared to simpler mean models, based on their performance in predicting climatic-scale (30-year) annual rainfall indices, i.e. maxima, totals, wet-day average and probability dry, from long-term daily records. The models are calibrated in two different schemes: block-moving, i.e. fitted on the recent 30 years of data, obtaining the local trend and local mean, and global-moving, i.e. fitted on the whole period known to an observer moving in time, thus obtaining the global trend and global mean. The investigation of empirical records spanning over 150 years suggests that a great degree of variability has been ever present in the rainfall process, leaving small potential for long-term predictability. The local mean model ranks first in terms of average predictive performance, followed by the global mean and the global trend, in decreasing order of performance, while the local trend model ranks last among the models, showing the worst performance overall. Parallel experiments from synthetic timeseries characterized by persistence corroborated this finding, suggesting that future long-term variability of persistent processes is better captured using parsimonious features of the past. In line with the empirical findings, it is shown that, prediction-wise, simple is preferable to trendy.
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Official site for free access (temporary): https://authors.elsevier.com/c/1b41M52cuR14A
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G.-F. Sargentis, P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Aesthetical issues of Leonardo Da Vinci’s and Pablo Picasso’s paintings with stochastic evaluation, Heritage, 3 (2), 283–305, doi:10.3390/heritage3020017, 2020.
A physical process is characterized as complex when it is difficult to analyze or explain in a simple way. The complexity within an art painting is expected to be high, possibly comparable to that of nature. Therefore, constructions of artists (e.g., paintings, music, literature, etc.) are expected to be also of high complexity since they are produced by numerous human (e.g., logic, instinct, emotions, etc.) and non-human (e.g., quality of paints, paper, tools, etc.) processes interacting with each other in a complex manner. The result of the interaction among various processes is not a white-noise behavior, but one where clusters of high or low values of quantified attributes appear in a non-predictive manner, thus highly increasing the uncertainty and the variability. In this work, we analyze stochastic patterns in terms of the dependence structure of art paintings of Da Vinci and Picasso with a stochastic 2D tool and investigate the similarities or differences among the artworks.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2043/1/documents/heritage-03-00017.pdf (9130 KB)
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Revisiting the global hydrological cycle: is it intensifying?, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 24, 3899–3932, doi:10.5194/hess-24-3899-2020, 2020.
As a result of technological advances in monitoring atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere and biosphere, as well as in data management and processing, several data bases have become freely available. These can be exploited in revisiting the global hydrological cycle with the aim, on the one hand, to better quantify it and, on the other hand, to test the established climatological hypotheses, according to which the hydrological cycle should be intensifying because of global warming. By processing the information from gridded ground observations, satellite data and reanalyses, it turns out that the established hypotheses are not confirmed. Instead of monotonic trends, there appear fluctuations from intensification to deintensification and vice versa, with deintensification prevailing in the 21st century. The water balance on land and sea appears to be lower than the standard figures of literature, but with greater variability on climatic time scales, which is in accordance with Hurst-Kolmogorov stochastic dynamics. The most obvious anthropogenic signal in the hydrological cycle appears to be the overexploitation of groundwater, which has a visible effect on sea level rise. Melting of glaciers has an equal effect, but in this case it is not known which part is anthropogenic, as studies on polar regions attribute mass loss mostly to ice dynamics.
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External reviews, comments and forum discussions about this article
- Bandwagon Of Doom Washed Away By Tidal Wave Of Data by Andrew Montford, 2020-04-02 (The Global Warming Policy Forum—GWPF)
- Bandwagon Of Doom Washed Away By Tidal Wave Of Data—Reproduced #1 as #2 with comments by Paul Homewood, 2020-04-02 (Not a Lot of People Know That)
- Bandwagon Of Doom Washed Away By Tidal Wave Of Data—Reproduced #1 as #3 with comments,, 2020-04-02 (Climate Change Dispatch)
- Bandwagon Of Doom Washed Away By Tidal Wave Of Data—Comments for #1, 2020-04-02 (Debate Politics)
- Bandwagon Of Doom Washed Away By Tidal Wave Of Data—Reproduced #1 as #5, 2020-04-02 (Before It's News)
- Bandwagon Of Doom Washed Away By Tidal Wave Of Data—Reproduced #1 as #6, 2020-04-02 (Roald J. Larsen)
- Bandwagon Of Doom Washed Away By Tidal Wave Of Data—Reproduced #1 as #7, 2020-04-02 (Iowa Climate Science Education)
- Week in review – climate science edition (with comments) by Judith Curry, 2020-04-03 (Climate Etc.)
- Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #405) by Ken Haapala, 2020-04-06 (Watts Up With That?)
- Eine Waggonladung Untergang von Daten-Flutwelle hinweg gespült—German translation of #1, 2020-04-17 (EIKE – Europäisches Institut für Klima & Energie)
- The 'Hydro-illogical cycle' by John Robson, 2020-04-15 (Climate Discussion Nexus)
- Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #406) by Ken Haapala, 2020-04-20 (Watts Up With That?)
- The Sound Of Settled Science (with comments) (Small Dead Animals)
- 観測データと気候モデルの結果が合わない / English translation: Observation data and climate model results do not match (International Environment and Economy Institute)
- Revisiting the global hydrological cycle: is it intensifying? by Charles Rotter with comments (Watts Up With That?).
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2042/1/documents/hess-24-3899-2020.pdf (16336 KB)
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G. Papacharalampous, H. Tyralis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Montanari, Quantification of predictive uncertainty in hydrological modelling by harnessing the wisdom of the crowd: A large-sample experiment at monthly timescale, Advances in Water Resources, 136, 103470, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.103470, 2020.
Predictive hydrological uncertainty can be quantified by using ensemble methods. If properly formulated, these methods can offer improved predictive performance by combining multiple predictions. In this work, we use 50-year-long monthly time series observed in 270 catchments in the United States to explore the performances provided by an ensemble learning post-processing methodology for issuing probabilistic hydrological predictions. This methodology allows the utilization of flexible quantile regression models for exploiting information about the hydrological model's error. Its key differences with respect to basic two-stage hydrological post-processing methodologies using the same type of regression models are that (a) instead of a single point hydrological prediction it generates a large number of “sister predictions” (yet using a single hydrological model), and that (b) it relies on the concept of combining probabilistic predictions via simple quantile averaging. A major hydrological modelling challenge is obtaining probabilistic predictions that are simultaneously reliable and associated to prediction bands that are as narrow as possible; therefore, we assess both these desired properties of the predictions by computing their coverage probabilities, average widths and average interval scores. The results confirm the usefulness of the proposed methodology and its larger robustness with respect to basic two-stage post-processing methodologies. Finally, this methodology is empirically proven to harness the “wisdom of the crowd” in terms of average interval score, i.e., the average of the individual predictions combined by this methodology scores no worse –usually better− than the average of the scores of the individual predictions.
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G. Papacharalampous, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Montanari, Quantification of predictive uncertainty in hydrological modelling by harnessing the wisdom of the crowd: Methodology development and investigation using toy models, Advances in Water Resources, 136, 103471, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.103471, 2020.
We introduce an ensemble learning post-processing methodology for probabilistic hydrological modelling. This methodology generates numerous point predictions by applying a single hydrological model, yet with different parameter values drawn from the respective simulated posterior distribution. We call these predictions “sister predictions”. Each sister prediction extending in the period of interest is converted into a probabilistic prediction using information about the hydrological model's errors. This information is obtained from a preceding period for which observations are available, and is exploited using a flexible quantile regression model. All probabilistic predictions are finally combined via simple quantile averaging to produce the output probabilistic prediction. The idea is inspired by the ensemble learning methods originating from the machine learning literature. The proposed methodology offers larger robustness in performance than basic post-processing methodologies using a single hydrological point prediction. It is also empirically proven to “harness the wisdom of the crowd” in terms of average interval score, i.e., the obtained quantile predictions score no worse –usually better− than the average score of the combined individual predictions. This proof is provided within toy examples, which can be used for gaining insight on how the methodology works and under which conditions it can optimally convert point hydrological predictions to probabilistic ones. A large-scale hydrological application is made in a companion paper.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Simple stochastic simulation of time irreversible and reversible processes, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 65 (4), 536–551, doi:10.1080/02626667.2019.1705302, 2020.
As time irreversibility of streamflow is marked for time scales up to several days, while common stochastic generation methods are good only for time symmetric processes, the need for new methods to handle irreversibility, particularly in flood simulations, has been recently highlighted. As a generic solution to this problem, an analytical exact method based on an asymmetric moving average (AMA) scheme is proposed. The method is studied theoretically in its general setting, as well as in its most interesting special cases, and is successfully applied to streamflow generation at hourly scale.
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eprint: https://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/7B2PCSMKFDXRMS87PJ4X/full?target=10.1080/02626667.2019.1705302
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R. Ioannidis, T. Iliopoulou, C. Iliopoulou, L. Katikas, A. Petsou, M.-E. Merakou, M.-E. Asimomiti, N. Pelekanos, G. Koudouris, P. Dimitriadis, C. Plati, E. Vlahogianni, K. Kepaptsoglou, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Solar-powered bus route: introducing renewable energy into a university campus transport system, Advances in Geosciences, 49, doi:10.5194/adgeo-49-215-2019, 2019.
We investigate the application of a solar-powered bus route to a small-scale transportation system, as such of a university campus. In particular, we explore the prospect of replacing conventional fossil fuel buses by electric buses powered by solar energy and electricity provided by the central grid. To this end, we employ GIS mapping technology to estimate the solar radiation at the university campus and, accordingly, we investigate three different scenarios for harnessing the available solar power: (1) solar panels installed on the roof of bus stop shelters, (2) solar panels installed at an unused open space in the university, and (3) solar roads, i.e. roads constructed by photovoltaic (PV) materials. For each of the three scenarios, we investigate the optimal technical configuration, the resulting energy generation, as well as the capital cost for application in the case of NTUA campus in Athens (Greece). The preliminary feasibility analysis showcases that all three scenarios contribute to satisfying transportation demand, proportionately to their size, with scenario (2) presenting the lowest capital cost in relation to energy generation. Therefore, we further explore this scenario by simulating its daily operation including the actions of buying and selling energy to the central grid, when there is energy deficit or surplus, respectively. A sensitivity analysis is carried out in order to ascertain the optimal size of the solar panel installation in relation to profit and reliability. Overall, results indicate that, albeit the high capital costs, solar-powered transportation schemes present a viable alternative for replacing conventional buses at the studied location, especially considering conventional PV panels. We note that present results heavily depend on the choice of capacity factors of PV materials, which differ among technologies. Yet, as capacity factors of PV panels are currently increasing, the studied schemes might be more promising in the future.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2016/1/documents/adgeo-49-215-2019.pdf (8167 KB)
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G. Papacharalampous, H. Tyralis, A. Langousis, A. W. Jayawardena, B. Sivakumar, N. Mamassis, A. Montanari, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Probabilistic hydrological post-processing at scale: Why and how to apply machine-learning quantile regression algorithms, Water, doi:10.3390/w11102126, 2019.
We conduct a large-scale benchmark experiment aiming to advance the use of machine-learning quantile regression algorithms for probabilistic hydrological post-processing “at scale” within operational contexts. The experiment is set up using 34-year-long daily time series of precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration and streamflow for 511 catchments over the contiguous United States. Point hydrological predictions are obtained using the Génie Rural à 4 paramètres Journalier (GR4J) hydrological model and exploited as predictor variables within quantile regression settings. Six machine-learning quantile regression algorithms and their equal-weight combiner are applied to predict conditional quantiles of the hydrological model errors. The individual algorithms are quantile regression, generalized random forests for quantile regression, generalized random forests for quantile regression emulating quantile regression forests, gradient boosting machine, model-based boosting with linear models as base learners and quantile regression neural networks. The conditional quantiles of the hydrological model errors are transformed to conditional quantiles of daily streamflow, which are finally assessed using proper performance scores and benchmarking. The assessment concerns various levels of predictive quantiles and central prediction intervals, while it is made both independently of the flow magnitude and conditional upon this magnitude. Key aspects of the developed methodological framework are highlighted, and practical recommendations are formulated. In technical hydro-meteorological applications, the algorithms should be applied preferably in a way that maximizes the benefits and reduces the risks from their use. This can be achieved by (i) combining algorithms (e.g., by averaging their predictions) and (ii) integrating algorithms within systematic frameworks (i.e., by using the algorithms according to their identified skills), as our large-scale results point out.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2001/1/documents/water-11-02126.pdf (6451 KB)
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F. Lombardo, F. Napolitano, F. Russo, and D. Koutsoyiannis, On the exact distribution of correlated extremes in hydrology, Water Resources Research, 55 (12), 10405–10423, doi:10.1029/2019WR025547, 2019.
The analysis of hydrological hazards usually relies on asymptotic results of extreme value theory (EVT), which commonly deals with block maxima (BM) or peaks over threshold (POT) data series. However, data quality and quantity of BM and POT hydrological records do not usually fulfill the basic requirements of EVT, thus making its application questionable and results prone to high uncertainty and low reliability. An alternative approach to better exploit the available information of continuous time series and non-extreme records is to build the exact distribution of maxima (i.e., non-asymptotic extreme value distributions) from a sequence of low-threshold POT. Practical closed-form results for this approach do exist only for independent high-threshold POT series with Poisson occurrences. This study introduces new closed-form equations of the exact distribution of maxima taken from low-threshold POT with magnitudes characterized by an arbitrary marginal distribution and first-order Markovian dependence, and negative binomial occurrences. The proposed model encompasses and generalizes the independent-Poisson model and allows for analyses relying on significantly larger samples of low-threshold POT values exhibiting dependence, temporal clustering and overdispersion. To check the analytical results, we also introduce a new generator (called Gen2Mp) of proper first-order Markov chains with arbitrary marginal distributions. An illustrative application to long-term rainfall and streamflow data series shows that our model for the distribution of extreme maxima under dependence takes a step forward in developing more reliable data-rich-based analyses of extreme values.
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P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, The mode of the climacogram estimator for a Gaussian Hurst-Kolmogorov process, Journal of Hydroinformatics, doi:10.2166/hydro.2019.038, 2019.
Geophysical processes are often characterized by long-term persistence. An important characteristic of such behaviour is the induced large statistical bias, i.e. the deviation of a statistical characteristic from its theoretical value. Here, we examine the most probable value (i.e. mode) of the estimator of variance to adjust the model for statistical bias. Particularly, we conduct an extensive Monte Carlo analysis based on the climacogram (i.e. variance of the average process vs. scale) of the simple scaling (Gaussian Hurst-Kolmogorov) process, and we show that its classical estimator is highly skewed especially in large scales. We observe that the mode of the climacogram estimator can be well approximated by its lower quartile (25% quantile). To derive an easy-to-fit empirical expression for the mode, we assume that the climacogram estimator follows a gamma distribution, an assumption strictly valid for Gaussian white noise processes. The results suggest that when a single timeseries is available, it is advantageous to estimate the Hurst parameter using the mode estimator rather than the expected one. Finally, it is discussed that while the proposed model for mode bias works well for Gaussian processes, for higher accuracy and non-Gaussian processes, one should perform a Monte Carlo simulation following an explicit generation algorithm.
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T. Iliopoulou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Revealing hidden persistence in maximum rainfall records, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 64 (14), 1673–1689, doi:10.1080/02626667.2019.1657578, 2019.
Clustering of extremes is critical for hydrological design and risk management and challenges the popular assumption of independence of extremes. We investigate the links between clustering of extremes and long-term persistence, else Hurst-Kolmogorov (HK) dynamics, in the parent process exploring the possibility of inferring the latter from the former. We find that (a) identifiability of persistence from maxima depends foremost on the choice of the threshold for extremes, the skewness and kurtosis of the parent process, and less on sample size; and (b) existing indices for inferring dependence from series of extremes are downward biased when applied to non-Gaussian processes. We devise a probabilistic index based on the probability of occurrence of peak-over-threshold events across multiple scales, which can reveal clustering, linking it to the persistence of the parent process. Its application shows that rainfall extremes may exhibit noteworthy departures from independence and consistency with an HK model.
See also: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02626667.2019.1657578
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G.-F. Sargentis, P. Dimitriadis, R. Ioannidis, T. Iliopoulou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic evaluation of landscapes transformed by renewable energy installations and civil works, Energies, 12 (4), 2817, doi:10.3390/en12142817, 2019.
Renewable energy (RE) installations and civil works are beneficial in terms of sustainability, but a considerable amount of space in the landscape is required in order to harness this energy. In contemporary environmental theory the landscape is considered an environmental parameter and the transformation of the landscape by RE works has received increasing attention by the scientific community and affected societies. This research develops a novel computational stochastic tool the 2D Climacogram (2D-C) that allows the analysis and comparison of images of landscapes, both original and transformed by RE works. This is achieved by a variability characterization of the grayscale intensity of 2D images. A benchmark analysis is performed for art paintings in order to evaluate the properties of the 2D-C for image analysis, and the change in variability among images. Extensive applications are performed for landscapes transformed by RE works. Results show that the 2D-C is able to quantify the changes in variability of the image features, which may prove useful in the landscape impact assessment of large-scale engineering works.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1984/1/documents/energies-12-02817.pdf (2772 KB)
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1. | Ding, L., Q. Li, J. Tang, J. Wang, and X. Chen, Linking land use metrics measured in aquatic-terrestrial interfaces to water quality of reservoir-based water sources in Eastern China, Sustainability, 11(18), 4860, doi:10.3390/su11184860, 2019. |
G.-F. Sargentis, R. Ioannidis, G. Karakatsanis, S. Sigourou, N. D. Lagaros, and D. Koutsoyiannis, The development of the Athens water supply system and inferences for optimizing the scale of water infrastructures, Sustainability, 11 (9), 2657, doi:10.3390/su11092657, 2019.
Modern organized societies require robust infrastructures, among which hydraulic projects, such as water supply and drainage systems, are most important, particularly in water-scarce areas. Athens is a unique example because it is a big city (population 3.7 million) located in a very dry area. In order to support the development of the city, large hydraulic projects had to be constructed during its history and, as a result, Athens currently has one of the largest water supply systems in the world. Could Athenians choose smaller scale infrastructures instead? Analyzing social, technical and economical historical data, we can see that large capital investments were required. In order to evaluate these investments this paper presents a technical summary of the development. An economic analysis displays historical values of these investments in present monetary values. The cost of existing infrastructure is compared to the cost of constructing smaller reservoirs and a model is created to correlate the price of water and the cost of water storage with the size of reservoirs. In particular, if more and smaller reservoirs were built instead of the large existing ones, the cost of the water would significantly increase, as illustrated by modelling the cost using local data.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1970/1/documents/sustainability-11-02657-v3.pdf (6450 KB)
See also: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/9/2657
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Time’s arrow in stochastic characterization and simulation of atmospheric and hydrological processes, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 64 (9), 1013–1037, doi:10.1080/02626667.2019.1600700, 2019.
Time’s arrow has important philosophical, scientific and technical connotations and is closely related to randomness as well as to causality. Stochastics offers a frame to explore, characterize and simulate irreversibility in natural processes. Indicators of irreversibility are different if we study a single process alone, or more processes simultaneously. In the former case, description of irreversibility requires at least third-order properties, while in the latter lagged second-order properties may suffice to reveal causal relations. Several examined data sets indicate that in atmospheric processes irreversibility is negligible at hydrologically relevant time scales, but may exist at the finest scales. However, the irreversibility of streamflow is marked for scales of several days and this highlights the need to reproduce it in flood simulations. For this reason, two methods of generating time series with irreversibility are developed, from which one, based on an asymmetric moving average scheme, proves to be satisfactory.
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1. | Brunner, M. I., A. Bárdossy, and R. Furrer, Technical note: Stochastic simulation of streamflow time series using phase randomization, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23, 3175-3187, doi:10.5194/hess-23-3175-2019, 2019. |
E. Volpi, A. Fiori, S. Grimaldi, F. Lombardo, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Save hydrological observations! Return period estimation without data decimation, Journal of Hydrology, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.02.017, 2019.
The concept of return period and its estimation are pivotal in risk management for many geophysical applications. Return period is usually estimated by inferring a probability distribution from an observed series of the random process of interest and then applying the classical equation, i.e. the inverse of the exceedance probability. Traditionally, we form a statistical sample by selecting, from the ”complete” time series (e.g. at the daily scale), those values that can reasonably be considered as realizations of independent extremes, e.g. annual maxima or peaks over a certain high threshold. Such a selection procedure entails that a large number of observations are discarded; this wastage of information could have important consequences in practical problems, where the reduction of the already small size of common hydrological records significantly affects the reliability of the estimates. Under such circumstances, it is crucial to exploit all the available information. To this end, we investigate the advantages of estimating the return period without any data decimation, by using the full data-set. The proposed procedure, denoted as Complete Time-series Analysis (CTA), exploits the property that the average interarrival time (i.e. return period) of potentially damaging events is not affected by the dependence structure of the underlying process, even for cyclo-stationary (e.g. seasonal) processes. For the sake of illustration, the CTA is compared to that based on annual maxima selection, through a simple non-parametric approach, discussing advantages and limitations of the method. Results suggest that the proposed CTA approach provides a more conservative return period estimation in an holistic implementation framework within a broader range of return period values than that pertaining to other methods, which means not only the largest extremes that are the focus of extreme value theory.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Knowable moments for high-order stochastic characterization and modelling of hydrological processes, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 64 (1), 19–33, doi:10.1080/02626667.2018.1556794, 2019.
Classical moments, raw or central, express important theoretical properties of probability distributions but can hardly be estimated from typical hydrological samples for orders beyond two. L-moments are better estimated, but they all are of first order in terms of the process of interest; while they are effective in inferring the marginal distribution of stochastic processes, they cannot characterize even secondorder dependence of processes (autocovariance, climacogram, power spectrum) and thus they cannot help in stochastic modelling. Picking from both categories, we introduce knowable (K-) moments, which combine advantages of both classical and L-moments, and enable reliable estimation from samples and effective description of high-order statistics, useful for marginal and joint distributions of stochastic processes. Further, we extend recent stochastic tools by introducing the K-climacogram and the K-climacospectrum, which enable characterization, in terms of univariate functions, of high-order properties of stochastic processes, as well as preservation thereof in simulations.
Remarks:
Free e-prints: https://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/vqPitmiKgeNpgbHXxHHR/full?target=10.1080/02626667.2018.1556794
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T. Iliopoulou, C. Aguilar , B. Arheimer, M. Bermúdez, N. Bezak, A. Ficchi, D. Koutsoyiannis, J. Parajka, M. J. Polo, G. Thirel, and A. Montanari, A large sample analysis of European rivers on seasonal river flow correlation and its physical drivers, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23, 73–91, doi:10.5194/hess-23-73-2019, 2019.
The geophysical and hydrological processes governing river flow formation exhibit persistence at several timescales, which may manifest itself with the presence of positive seasonal correlation of streamflow at several different time lags. We investigate here how persistence propagates along subsequent seasons and affects low and high flows. We define the high-flow season (HFS) and the low-flow season (LFS) as the 3-month and the 1-month periods which usually exhibit the higher and lower river flows, respectively. A dataset of 224 rivers from six European countries spanning more than 50 years of daily flow data is exploited. We compute the lagged seasonal correlation between selected river flow signatures, in HFS and LFS, and the average river flow in the antecedent months. Signatures are peak and average river flow for HFS and LFS, respectively. We investigate the links between seasonal streamflow correlation and various physiographic catchment characteristics and hydro-climatic properties. We find persistence to be more intense for LFS signatures than HFS. To exploit the seasonal correlation in the frequency estimation of high and low flows, we fit a bi-variate meta-Gaussian probability distribution to the selected flow signatures and average flow in the antecedent months in order to condition the distribution of high and low flows in the HFS and LFS, respectively, upon river flow observations in the previous months. The benefit of the suggested methodology is demonstrated by updating the frequency distribution of high and low flows one season in advance in a real-world case. Our findings suggest that there is a traceable physical basis for river memory which, in turn, can be statistically assimilated into high- and low-flow frequency estimation to reduce uncertainty and improve predictions for technical purposes.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1927/1/documents/hess-23-73-2019.pdf (6166 KB)
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A. Koskinas, A. Tegos, P. Tsira, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, P. Papanicolaou, D. Koutsoyiannis, and Τ. Williamson, Insights into the Oroville Dam 2017 spillway incident, Geosciences, 9 (37), doi:10.3390/geosciences9010037, 2019.
In February 2017, a failure occurring in Oroville Dam’s main spillway risked causing severe damages downstream. A unique aspect of this incident was the fact that it happened during a flood scenario well within its design and operational procedures, prompting research into its causes and determining methods to prevent similar events from reoccurring. In this study, a hydroclimatic analysis of Oroville Dam’s catchment is conducted, along with a review of related design and operational manuals. The data available allows for the comparison of older flood-frequency analyses to new alternative methods proposed in this paper and relevant literature. Based on summary characteristics of the 2017 floods, possible causes of the incident are outlined, in order to understand which factors contributed more significantly. It turns out that the event was most likely the result of a structural problem in the dam’s main spillway and detrimental geological conditions, but analysis of surface level data also reveals operational issues that were not present during previous larger floods, promoting a discussion about flood control design methods, specifications, and dam inspection procedures, and how these can be improved to prevent a similar event from occurring in the future.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1926/1/documents/geosciences-09-00037-2.pdf (6834 KB)
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G. Papacharalampous, H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Comparison of stochastic and machine learning methods for multi-step ahead forecasting of hydrological processes, Stochastic Environmental Research & Risk Assessment, doi:10.1007/s00477-018-1638-6, 2019.
Research within the field of hydrology often focuses on the statistical problem of comparing stochastic to machine learning (ML) forecasting methods. The performed comparisons are based on case studies, while a study providing large-scale results on the subject is missing. Herein, we compare 11 stochastic and 9 ML methods regarding their multi-step ahead forecasting properties by conducting 12 extensive computational experiments based on simulations. Each of these experiments uses 2000 time series generated by linear stationary stochastic processes. We conduct each simulation experiment twice; the first time using time series of 100 values and the second time using time series of 300 values. Additionally, we conduct a real-world experiment using 405 mean annual river discharge time series of 100 values. We quantify the forecasting performance of the methods using 18 metrics. The results indicate that stochastic and ML methods may produce equally useful forecasts.
Remarks:
Supplementary information: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.7092824.v1
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P. Dimitriadis, K. Tzouka, D. Koutsoyiannis, H. Tyralis, A. Kalamioti, E. Lerias, and P. Voudouris, Stochastic investigation of long-term persistence in two-dimensional images of rocks, Spatial Statistics, 29, 177–191, doi:10.1016/j.spasta.2018.11.002, 2019.
Determining the geophysical properties of rocks and geological formations is of high importance in many fields such as geotechnical engineering. In this study, we investigate the second-order dependence structure of spatial (two-dimensional) processes through the statistical perspective of variance vs. scale (else known as the climacogram) instead of covariance vs. lag (e.g. autocovariance, variogram etc.) or power vs. frequency (e.g. power spectrum, scaleogram, wavelet transform etc.) which traditionally are applied. In particular, we implement a two-dimensional (visual) estimator, adjusted for bias and for unknown process mean, through the (plot of) variance of the space-averaged process vs. the spatial scale. Additionally, we attempt to link the climacogram to the type of rocks and provide evidence on stochastic similarities in certain of their characteristics, such as mineralogical composition and resolution. To this end, we investigate two-dimensional spatial images of rocks in terms of their stochastic microstructure as estimated by the climacogram. The analysis is based both on microscale and macroscale data extracted from grayscale images of rocks. Interestingly, a power-law drop of variance vs. scale (or else known as long-term persistence) is detected in all scales presenting a similar power-exponent. Furthermore, the strengths and limitations of the climacogram as a stochastic tool are discussed and compared with the traditional tool in spatial statistics, the variogram. We show that the former has considerable strengths for detecting the long-range dependence in spatial statistics.
Remarks:
Share Link: https://authors.elsevier.com/c/1YJjr7su79fMuR
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G. Papacharalampous, H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Univariate time series forecasting of temperature and precipitation with a focus on machine learning algorithms: a multiple-case study from Greece, Water Resources Management, 32 (15), 5207–5239, doi:10.1007/s11269-018-2155-6, 2018.
We provide contingent empirical evidence on the solutions to three problems associated with univariate time series forecasting using machine learning (ML) algorithms by conducting an extensive multiple-case study. These problems are: (a) lagged variable selection, (b) hyperparameter handling, and (c) comparison between ML and classical algorithms. The multiple-case study is composed by 50 single-case studies, which use time series of mean monthly temperature and total monthly precipitation observed in Greece. We focus on two ML algorithms, i.e. neural networks and support vector machines, while we also include four classical algorithms and a naïve benchmark in the comparisons. We apply a fixed methodology to each individual case and, subsequently, we perform a cross-case synthesis to facilitate the detection of systematic patterns. We fit the models to the deseasonalized time series. We compare the one- and multi-step ahead forecasting performance of the algorithms. Regarding the one-step ahead forecasting performance, the assessment is based on the absolute error of the forecast of the last monthly observation. For the quantification of the multi-step ahead forecasting performance we compute five metrics on the test set (last year’s monthly observations), i.e. the root mean square error, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, the ratio of standard deviations, the coefficient of correlation and the index of agreement. The evidence derived by the experiments can be summarized as follows: (a) the results mostly favour using less recent lagged variables, (b) hyperparameter optimization does not necessarily lead to better forecasts, (c) the ML and classical algorithms seem to be equally competitive.
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T. Iliopoulou, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Montanari, Characterizing and modeling seasonality in extreme rainfall, Water Resources Research, 54 (9), 6242–6258, doi:10.1029/2018WR023360, 2018.
A comprehensive understanding of seasonality in extreme rainfall is essential for climate studies, flood prediction and various hydrological applications such as scheduling season‐specific engineering works, intra‐annual management of reservoirs, seasonal flood risk mitigation and stormwater management. To identify seasonality in extreme rainfall and quantify its impact in a theoretically consistent yet practically appealing manner, we investigate a dataset of 27 daily rainfall records spanning at least 150 years. We aim to objectively identify periods within the year with distinct seasonal properties of extreme rainfall by employing the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Optimal partitioning of seasons is identified by minimizing the within‐season variability of extremes. The statistics of annual and seasonal extremes are evaluated by fitting a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to the annual and seasonal block maxima series. The results indicate that seasonal properties of rainfall extremes mainly affect the average values of seasonal maxima and their variability, while the shape of their probability distribution and its tail do not substantially vary from season to season. Uncertainty in the estimation of the GEV parameters is quantified by employing three different estimation methods (Maximum Likelihood, Method of Moments and Least Squares) and the opportunity for joint parameter estimation of seasonal and annual probability distributions of extremes is discussed. The effectiveness of the proposed scheme for seasonal characterization and modeling is highlighted when contrasted to results obtained from the conventional approach of using fixed climatological seasons.
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N. Malamos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Field survey and modelling of irrigation water quality indices in a Mediterranean island catchment: A comparison between spatial interpolation methods, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 63 (10), 1447–1467, doi:10.1080/02626667.2018.1508874, 2018.
A biannual survey of physico-chemical quality indices of 104 irrigation-water wells located in a cultivated plain of a Mediterranean island catchment was conducted using a multi-parameter probe. The campaign was planned so as to differentiate between the dry and wet seasons. The acquired data constituted the test bed for evaluating the results and the features of four spatial interpolation methods, i.e. ordinary kriging, universal kriging, inverse distance weighted and nearest neighbours, against those of the recently introduced bilinear surface smoothing (BSS). In several cases, BSS outperformed the other interpolation methods, especially during the two-fold cross-validation procedure. The study emphasizes the fact that both in situ measurements and good mathematical techniques for studying the spatial distribution of water quality indices are pivotal to agricultural practice management. In the specific case studied, the spatio-temporal variability of water quality parameters and the need for monitoring were evident, as low irrigation water quality was encountered throughout the study area.
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G. Koudouris, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A stochastic model for the hourly solar radiation process for application in renewable resources management, Advances in Geosciences, 45, 139–145, doi:10.5194/adgeo-45-139-2018, 2018.
Since the beginning of the 21st century, the scientific community has made huge leaps to exploit renewable energy sources, with solar radiation being one of the most important. However, the variability of solar radiation has a significant impact on solar energy conversion systems, such as in photovoltaic systems, characterized by a fast and nonlinear response to incident solar radiation. The performance prediction of these systems is typically based on hourly or daily data because those are usually available at these time scales. The aim of this work is to investigate the stochastic nature and time evolution of the solar radiation process for daily and hourly scale, with the ultimate goal of creating a new cyclostationary stochastic model capable of reproducing the dependence structure and the marginal distribution of hourly solar radiation via the clearness index KT .
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1867/1/documents/adgeo-45-139-2018.pdf (4911 KB)
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N. Quinn, G. Blöschl, A. Bardossy, A. Castellarin, M. Clark, C. Cudennec, D. Koutsoyiannis, U. Lall, L. Lichner, J. Parajka, C.D. Peters-Lidard, G. Sander, H. H. G. Savenije, K. Smettem, H. Vereecken, A. Viglione, P. Willems, A. Wood, R. Woods, C.-Y. Xu, and E. Zehe, Invigorating hydrological research through journal publications, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 63 (8), 1113–1117, doi:10.1080/02626667.2018.1496632, 2018.
Editors of several journals in the field of hydrology met during the General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union—EGU in Vienna in April 2017. This event was a follow-up of similar meetings held in 2013 and 2015. These meetings enable the group of editors to review the current status of the journals and the publication process, and to share thoughts on future strategies. Journals were represented at the 2017 meeting by their editors, as shown in the list of authors. The main points on invigorating hydrological research through journal publications are communicated in this joint editorial published in the above journals
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The Joint Editorial has been published in:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1865/1/documents/2018_HSJ_InvigoratingHydrologicalResearch.pdf (122 KB)
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E. Klousakou, M. Chalakatevaki, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, R. Ioannidis, G. Karakatsanis, A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, R. Tomani, E. Chardavellas, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A preliminary stochastic analysis of the uncertainty of natural processes related to renewable energy resources, Advances in Geosciences, 45, 193–199, doi:10.5194/adgeo-45-193-2018, 2018.
The ever-increasing energy demand has led to overexploitation of fossil fuels deposits, while renewables offer a viable alternative. Since renewable energy resources derive from phenomena related to either atmospheric or geophysical processes, unpredictability is inherent to renewable energy systems. An innovative and simple stochastic tool, the climacogram, was chosen to explore the degree of unpredictability. By applying the climacogram across the related timeseries and spatial-series it was feasible to identify the degree of unpredictability in each process through the Hurst parameter, an index that quantifies the level of uncertainty. All examined processes display a Hurst parameter larger than 0.5, indicating increased uncertainty on the long term. This implies that only through stochastic analysis may renewable energy resources be reliably manageable and cost efficient. In this context, a pilot application of a hybrid renewable energy system in the Greek island of Astypalaia is discussed, for which we show how the uncertainty (in terms of variability) of the input hydrometeorological processes alters the uncertainty of the output energy values.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1864/1/documents/adgeo-45-193-2018.pdf (559 KB)
See also: https://www.adv-geosci.net/45/193/2018/
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1. | Kaps, C., S. Marinesi, and S. Netessine, When should the off-grid sun shine at night? Optimum renewable generation and energy storage investment, Management Science, 69(12), 7633-7650, doi:10.1287/mnsc.2021.04129, 2023. |
2. | Adewumi, A., C. E. Okoli, F. O. Usman, K. A. Olu-lawal, and O. T. Soyombo, Reviewing the impact of AI on renewable energy efficiency and management, International Journal of Science and Research Archive, 11(01), 1518–1527, doi:10.30574/ijsra.2024.11.1.0245, 2024. |
3. | #Awudu, S., A. K. Yeliawati, and M. Sari, Unveiling the green tapestry: Exploring the influence of green budget tagging on the nexus of fiscal policy sustainability and green budgeting practices in metropolitan municipal and district assemblies in Ghana, Proceedings of the 8th Global Conference on Business, Management, and Entrepreneurship (GCBME 2023), 186-192, Atlantic Press, 2024. |
I. Tsoukalas, C. Makropoulos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Simulation of stochastic processes exhibiting any-range dependence and arbitrary marginal distributions, Water Resources Research, 54 (11), 9484–9513, doi:10.1029/2017WR022462, 2018.
Hydrometeorological processes are typically characterized by temporal dependence, short‐ or long‐range (e.g., Hurst behavior), as well as by non‐Gaussian distributions (especially at fine time scales). The generation of long synthetic time series that resemble the marginal and joint properties of the observed ones is a prerequisite in many uncertainty‐related hydrological studies, since they can be used as inputs and hence allow the propagation of natural variability and uncertainty to the typically deterministic water‐system models. For this reason, it has been for years one of the main research topics in the field of stochastic hydrology. This work presents a novel model for synthetic time series generation, termed Symmetric Moving Average (neaRly) To Anything (SMARTA), that holds out the promise of simulating stationary univariate and multivariate processes with any‐range dependence and arbitrary marginal distributions, provided that the former is feasible and the latter have finite variance. This is accomplished by utilizing a mapping procedure in combination with the relationship that exists between the correlation coefficients of an auxiliary Gaussian process and a non‐Gaussian one, formalized through the Nataf's joint distribution model. The generality of SMARTA is stressed through two hypothetical simulation studies (univariate and multivariate), characterized by different dependencies and distributions. Furthermore, we demonstrate the practical aspects of the proposed model through two real‐world cases, one that concerns the generation of annual non‐Gaussian streamflow time series at four stations, and another that involves the synthesis of intermittent, non‐Gaussian, daily rainfall series at a single location.
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1. | Brunner, M. I., A. Bárdossy, and R. Furrer, Technical note: Stochastic simulation of streamflow time series using phase randomization, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23, 3175-3187, doi:10.5194/hess-23-3175-2019, 2019. |
2. | Cheng, Y., P. Feng, J. Li, Y. Guo, and P. Ren, Water supply risk analysis based on runoff sequence simulation with change point under changing environment, Advances in Meteorology, 9619254, doi:10.1155/2019/9619254, 2019. |
3. | #Elsayed, H., S. Djordjević, and D. Savić, The Nile water, food and energy nexus – A system dynamics model, 7th International Computing & Control for the Water Industry Conference, Exeter, United Kingdom, 2019. |
G. Papacharalampous, H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Predictability of monthly temperature and precipitation using automatic time series forecasting methods, Acta Geophysica, 66 (4), 807–831, doi:10.1007/s11600-018-0120-7, 2018.
We investigate the predictability of monthly temperature and precipitation by applying automatic univariate time series forecasting methods to a sample of 985 40-year long monthly temperature and 1552 40-year long monthly precipitation time series. The methods include a naïve one based on the monthly values of the last year, as well as the random walk (with drift), AutoRegressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA), exponential smoothing state space model with Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components (BATS), simple exponential smoothing, Theta and Prophet methods. Prophet is a recently introduced model inspired by the nature of time series forecasted at Facebook and has not been applied to hydrometeorological time series before, while the use of random walk, BATS, simple exponential smoothing and Theta is rare in hydrology. The methods are tested in performing multi-step ahead forecasts for the last 48 months of the data. We further investigate how different choices of handling the seasonality and non-normality affect the performance of the models. The results indicate that (a) all the examined methods apart from the naïve and random walk ones are accurate enough to be used in long-term applications, (b) monthly temperature and precipitation can be forecasted to a level of accuracy which can barely be improved using other methods, (c) the externally applied classical seasonal decomposition results mostly in better forecasts compared to the automatic seasonal decomposition used by the BATS and Prophet methods and (d) Prophet is competitive, especially when it is combined with externally applied classical seasonal decomposition
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G. Papacharalampous, H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, One-step ahead forecasting of geophysical processes within a purely statistical framework, Geoscience Letters, 5, 12, doi:10.1186/s40562-018-0111-1, 2018.
The simplest way to forecast geophysical processes, an engineering problem with a widely recognized challenging character, is the so-called “univariate time series forecasting” that can be implemented using stochastic or machine learning regression models within a purely statistical framework. Regression models are in general fast-implemented, in contrast to the computationally intensive Global Circulation Models, which constitute the most frequently used alternative for precipitation and temperature forecasting. For their simplicity and easy applicability, the former have been proposed as benchmarks for the latter by forecasting scientists. Herein, we assess the one-step ahead forecasting performance of 20 univariate time series forecasting methods, when applied to a large number of geophysical and simulated time series of 91 values. We use two real-world annual datasets, a dataset composed by 112 time series of precipitation and another composed by 185 time series of temperature, as well as their respective standardized datasets, to conduct several real-world experiments. We further conduct large-scale experiments using 12 simulated datasets. These datasets contain 24,000 time series in total, which are simulated using stochastic models from the families of AutoRegressive Moving Average and AutoRegressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average. We use the frst 50, 60, 70, 80 and 90 data points for model-ftting and model-validation, and make predictions corresponding to the 51st, 61st, 71st, 81st and 91st respectively. The total number of forecasts produced herein is 2,177,520, among which 47,520 are obtained using the real-world datasets. The assessment is based on eight error metrics and accuracy statistics. The simulation experiments reveal the most and least accurate methods for long-term forecasting applications, also suggesting that the simple methods may be competitive in specifc cases. Regarding the results of the realworld experiments using the original (standardized) time series, the minimum and maximum medians of the absolute errors are found to be 68 mm (0.55) and 189 mm (1.42) respectively for precipitation, and 0.23 °C (0.33) and 1.10 °C (1.46) respectively for temperature. Since there is an absence of relevant information in the literature, the numerical results obtained using the standardized real-world datasets could be used as rough benchmarks for the one-step ahead predictability of annual precipitation and temperature
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1834/1/documents/s40562-018-0111-1.pdf (3083 KB)
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H. Tyralis, P. Dimitriadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, P.E. O’Connell, K. Tzouka, and T. Iliopoulou, On the long-range dependence properties of annual precipitation using a global network of instrumental measurements, Advances in Water Resources, 111, 301–318, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2017.11.010, 2018.
The long-range dependence (LRD) is considered an inherent property of geophysical processes, whose presence increases uncertainty. Here we examine the spatial behaviour of LRD in precipitation by regressing the Hurst parameter estimate of mean annual precipitation instrumental data which span from 1916-2015 and cover a big area of the earth’s surface on location characteristics of the instrumental data stations. Furthermore, we apply the Mann-Kendall test under the LRD assumption (MKt-LRD) to reassess the significance of observed trends. To summarize the results, the LRD is spatially clustered, it seems to depend mostly on the location of the stations, while the predictive value of the regression model is good. Thus when investigating for LRD properties we recommend that the local characteristics should be considered. The application of the MKt-LRD suggests that no significant monotonic trend appears in global precipitation, excluding the climate type D (snow) regions in which positive significant trends appear.
Remarks:
Supplementary information files are hosted at: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.4892447.v1
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P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic synthesis approximating any process dependence and distribution, Stochastic Environmental Research & Risk Assessment, 32 (6), 1493–1515, doi:10.1007/s00477-018-1540-2, 2018.
An extension of the symmetric-moving-average (SMA) scheme is presented for stochastic synthesis of a stationary process for approximating any dependence structure and marginal distribution. The extended SMA model can exactly preserve an arbitrary second-order structure as well as the high order moments of a process, thus enabling a better approximation of any type of dependence (through the second-order statistics) and marginal distribution function (through statistical moments), respectively. Interestingly, by explicitly preserving the coefficient of kurtosis, it can also simulate certain aspects of intermittency, often characterizing the geophysical processes. Several applications with alternative hypothetical marginal distributions, as well as with real world processes, such as precipitation, wind speed and grid-turbulence, highlight the scheme’s wide range of applicability in stochastic generation and Monte-Carlo analysis. Particular emphasis is given on turbulence, in an attempt to simulate in a simple way several of its characteristics regarded as puzzles.
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Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
1. | Park, J., C. Onof, and D. Kim, A hybrid stochastic rainfall model that reproduces some important rainfall characteristics at hourly to yearly timescales, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23, 989-1014, doi:10.5194/hess-23-989-2019, 2019. |
P. Kossieris, C. Makropoulos, C. Onof, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A rainfall disaggregation scheme for sub-hourly time scales: Coupling a Bartlett-Lewis based model with adjusting procedures, Journal of Hydrology, 556, 980–992, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.07.015, 2018.
Many hydrological applications, such as flood studies, require the use of long rainfall data at fine time scales varying from daily down to 1 minute time step. However, in the real world there is limited availability of data at sub-hourly scales. To cope with this issue, stochastic disaggregation techniques are typically employed to produce possible, statistically consistent, rainfall events that aggregate up to the field data collected at coarser scales. A methodology for the stochastic disaggregation of rainfall at fine time scales was recently introduced, combining the Bartlett-Lewis process to generate rainfall events along with adjusting procedures to modify the lower-level variables (i.e., hourly) so as to be consistent with the higher-level one (i.e., daily). In the present paper, we extend the aforementioned scheme, initially designed and tested for the disaggregation of daily rainfall into hourly depths, for any sub-hourly time scale. In addition, we take advantage of the recent developments in Poisson-cluster processes incorporating in the methodology a Bartlett-Lewis model variant that introduces dependence between cell intensity and duration in order to capture the variability of rainfall at sub-hourly time scales. The disaggregation scheme is implemented in an R package, named HyetosMinute, to support disaggregation from daily down to 1-minute time scale. The applicability of the methodology was assessed on a 5-minute rainfall records collected in Bochum, Germany, comparing the performance of the above mentioned model variant against the original Bartlett-Lewis process (non-random with 5 parameters). The analysis shows that the disaggregation process reproduces adequately the most important statistical characteristics of rainfall at wide range of time scales, while the introduction of the model with dependent intensity-duration results in a better performance in terms of skewness, rainfall extremes and dry proportions.
Remarks:
Temporary free access: https://authors.elsevier.com/c/1WHlB52cuBmT2
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.07.015
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Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
1. | Shrestha, A., M. S. Babel, S. Weesakul, and Z. Vojinovic, Developing intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves under climate change uncertainty: The case of Bangkok, Thailand, Water, 9(2), 145, doi:10.3390/w9020145, 2017. |
2. | Li, X., A. Meshgi, X. Wang, J. Zhang, S. H. X. Tay, G. Pijcke, N. Manocha, M. Ong, M. T. Nguyen, and V. Babovic, Three resampling approaches based on method of fragments for daily-to-subdaily precipitation disaggregation, International Journal of Climatology, doi:10.1002/joc.5438, 2018. |
3. | Papalexiou, S. M., Y. Markonis, F. Lombardo, A. AghaKouchak, and E. Foufoula‐Georgiou, Precise temporal Disaggregation Preserving Marginals and Correlations (DiPMaC) for stationary and non‐stationary processes, Water Resources Research, doi:10.1029/2018WR022726, 2018. |
4. | Park, J., C. Onof, and D. Kim, A hybrid stochastic rainfall model that reproduces some important rainfall characteristics at hourly to yearly timescales, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23, 989-1014, doi:10.5194/hess-23-989-2019, 2019. |
5. | Onof, C., and L.-P. Wang, Modelling rainfall with a Bartlett–Lewis process: New developments, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, doi:10.5194/hess-2019-406, 2019. |
T. Iliopoulou, S.M. Papalexiou, Y. Markonis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Revisiting long-range dependence in annual precipitation, Journal of Hydrology, 556, 891–900, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.04.015, 2018.
Long-range dependence (LRD), the so-called Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour, is considered to be an intrinsic characteristic of most natural processes. This behaviour manifests itself by the prevalence of slowly decaying autocorrelation function and questions the Markov assumption, often habitually employed in time series analysis. Herein, we investigate the dependence structure of annual rainfall using a large set, comprising more than a thousand stations worldwide of length 100 years or more, as well as a smaller number of paleoclimatic reconstructions covering the last 12,000 years. Our findings suggest weak long-term persistence for instrumental data (average H = 0.59), which becomes stronger with scale, i.e. in the paleoclimatic reconstructions (average H = 0.75).
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.04.015
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N. Malamos, I. L. Tsirogiannis, A. Tegos, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Spatial interpolation of potential evapotranspiration for precision irrigation purposes, European Water, 59, 303–309, 2017.
Precision irrigation constitutes a breakthrough for agricultural water management since it provides means to optimal water use. In recent years several applications of precision irrigation are implemented based on spatial data from different origins, i.e. meteorological stations networks, remote sensing data and in situ measurements. One of the factors affecting optimal irrigation system design and management is the daily potential evapotranspiration (PET). A commonly used approach is to estimate the daily PET for the representative day of each month during the irrigation period. In the present study, the implementation of the recently introduced non-parametric bilinear surface smoothing (BSS) methodology for spatial interpolation of daily PET is presented. The study area was the plain of Arta which is located at the Region of Epirus at the North West Greece. Daily PET was estimated according to the FAO Penman-Monteith methodology with data collected from a network of six agrometeorological stations, installed in early 2015 in selected locations throughout the study area. For exploration purposes, we produced PET maps for the Julian dates: 105, 135, 162, 199, 229 and 259, thus covering the entire irrigation period of 2015. Also, comparison and cross validation against the calculated FAO Penman-Monteith PET for each station, were performed between BSS and a commonly used interpolation method, i.e. inverse distance weighted (IDW). During the leave-one-out cross validation procedure, BSS yielded very good results, outperforming IDW. Given the simplicity of the BSS, its overall performance is satisfactory, providing maps that represent the spatial and temporal variation of daily PET.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1776/1/documents/EW_2017_59_41_2HOxTxv.pdf (4259 KB)
See also: http://ewra.net/ew/pdf/EW_2017_59_41.pdf
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1. | Ndiaye, P. M., A. Bodian, L. Diop, A. Deme, A. Dezetter, K. Djaman, and A. Ogilvie, Trend and sensitivity analysis of reference evapotranspiration in the Senegal river basin using NASA meteorological data, Water, 12(7), 1957, doi:10.3390/w12071957, 2020. |
2. | Ndiaye, P. M., A. Bodian, L. Diop, A. Dezetter, E. Guilpart, A. Deme, and A. Ogilvie, Future trend and sensitivity analysis of evapotranspiration in the Senegal River Basin, Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 35, 100820, doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100820, 2021. |
3. | Dimitriadou S., and K. G. Nikolakopoulos, Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) methods implemented as ArcMap models with remote-sensed and ground-based inputs, examined along with MODIS ET, for Peloponnese, Greece, ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 10(6), 390, doi:10.3390/ijgi10060390, 2021. |
4. | #Dimitriadou, S., and K. G. Nikolakopoulos, Development of GIS models via optical programming and python scripts to implement four empirical methods of reference and actual evapotranspiration (ETo, ETa) incorporating MODIS LST inputs, Proc. SPIE 11856, Remote Sensing for Agriculture, Ecosystems, and Hydrology XXIII, 118560K, doi:10.1117/12.2597724, 2021. |
5. | Dimitriadou, S., and K. G. Nikolakopoulos, Evapotranspiration trends and interactions in light of the anthropogenic footprint and the climate crisis: A review, Hydrology, 8(4), 163, doi:10.3390/hydrology8040163, 2021. |
6. | Dimitriadou, S., and K. G. Nikolakopoulos, Artificial neural networks for the prediction of the reference evapotranspiration of the Peloponnese Peninsula, Greece, Water, 14(13), 2027, doi:10.3390/w14132027, 2022. |
7. | Fotia, K., G. Nanos, N. Malamos, M. Giannelos, P. Mpeza, and I. Tsirogiannis, Water footprint and performance assessment of a table olive cultivar (Olea europaea L. “Konservolea”) under various irrigation strategies, Acta Horticulturae, 1373, 57-64, doi:10.17660/ActaHortic.2023.1373.9, 2023. |
G. Papacharalampous, H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Forecasting of geophysical processes using stochastic and machine learning algorithms, European Water, 59, 161–168, 2017.
We perform an extensive comparison between four stochastic and two machine learning (ML) forecasting algorithms by conducting a multiple-case study. The latter is composed by 50 single-case studies, which use time series of total monthly precipitation and mean monthly temperature observed in Greece. We apply a fixed methodology to each individual case and, subsequently, we perform a cross-case synthesis to facilitate the detection of systematic patterns. The stochastic algorithms include the Autoregressive order one model, an algorithm from the family of Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average models, an Exponential Smoothing State Space algorithm and the Theta algorithm, while the ML algorithms are Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines. We also use the last observation as a Naïve benchmark in the comparisons. We apply the forecasting methods to the deseasonalized time series. We compare the one-step ahead as also the multi-step ahead forecasting properties of the algorithms. Regarding the one-step ahead forecasting properties, the assessment is based on the absolute error of the forecast of the last observation. For the comparison of the multi-step ahead forecasting properties we use five metrics applied to the test set (last twelve observations), i.e. the root mean square error, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, the ratio of standard deviations, the index of agreement and the coefficient of correlation. Concerning the ML algorithms, we also perform a sensitivity analysis for time lag selection. Additionally, we compare more sophisticated ML methods as regards to the hyperparameter optimization to simple ones.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1768/1/documents/EW_2017_59_22.pdf (1163 KB)
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Entropy production in stochastics, Entropy, 19 (11), 581, doi:10.3390/e19110581, 2017.
While the modern definition of entropy is genuinely probabilistic, in entropy production the classical thermodynamic definition, as in heat transfer, is typically used. Here we explore the concept of entropy production within stochastics and, particularly, two forms of entropy production in logarithmic time, unconditionally (EPLT) or conditionally on the past and present having been observed (CEPLT). We study the theoretical properties of both forms, in general and in application to a broad set of stochastic processes. A main question investigated, related to model identification and fitting from data, is how to estimate the entropy production from a time series. It turns out that there is a link of the EPLT with the climacogram, and of the CEPLT with two additional tools introduced here, namely the differenced climacogram and the climacospectrum. In particular, EPLT and CEPLT are related to slopes of log-log plots of these tools, with the asymptotic slopes at the tails being most important as they justify the emergence of scaling laws of second-order characteristics of stochastic processes. As a real-world application, we use an extraordinary long time series of turbulent velocity and show how a parsimonious stochastic model can be identified and fitted using the tools developed.
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A. Tegos, N. Malamos, A. Efstratiadis, I. Tsoukalas, A. Karanasios, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Parametric modelling of potential evapotranspiration: a global survey, Water, 9 (10), 795, doi:10.3390/w9100795, 2017.
We present and validate a global parametric model of potential evapotranspiration (PET) with two parameters which are estimated through calibration, using as explanatory variables temperature and extraterrestrial radiation. The model and the parameters estimation approach were tested over the globe, using the FAO CLIMWAT database that provides monthly averaged values of meteorological inputs at 4300 locations worldwide. A preliminary analysis of these data allowed explaining the major drivers of PET over the globe and across seasons. Next, we developed an automatic optimization software tool to calibrate the model and provide point PET estimations against the given Penman-Monteith values. We also employed extended analysis of model inputs and outputs, including the production of global maps of optimized model parameters and associated performance metrics. Also, we employed interpolated values of the optimized parameters to validate the predictive capacity of our model against monthly meteorological time series, at several stations worldwide. The results were very encouraging, since even with the use of abstract climatic information for model calibration and the use of interpolated parameters as local predictors, the model generally ensures reliable PET estimations. In few cases the model performs poorly in estimating the reference PET, due to irregular interactions between temperature and extraterrestrial radiation, as well as because the associated processes are influenced by additional drivers, e.g. relative humidity and wind speed. However, the analysis of the residuals showed that the model is consistent in terms of parameters estimation and model validation. The provided parameters maps allow the direct use of the parametric model wherever in the world, providing PET estimates in case of missing data, that can be further improved even with a short term acquisition of meteorological data.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1738/2/documents/water-09-00795.pdf (6428 KB)
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See also: http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/9/10/795
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Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
1. | Elferchichi, A., G. A. Giorgio, N. Lamaddalena, M. Ragosta, and V. Telesca, Variability of temperature and its impact on reference evapotranspiration: the test case of the Apulia region (Southern Italy), Sustainability, 9(12), 2337, doi:10.3390/su9122337, 2017. |
2. | Li, M., R. Chu, S. Shen, and A. R. T. Islam, Quantifying climatic impact on reference evapotranspiration trends in the Huai River Basin of Eastern China, Water, 10(2), 144, doi:10.3390/w10020144, 2018. |
3. | Yan, N., F. Tian, B. Wu, W. Zhu, and M. Yu, Spatiotemporal analysis of actual evapotranspiration and its causes in the Hai basin, Remote Sensing, 10(2), 332; doi:10.3390/rs10020332, 2018. |
4. | Li, M., R. Chu, A.R.M.T. Islam, and S. Shen, Reference evapotranspiration variation analysis and its approaches evaluation of 13 empirical models in sub-humid and humid regions: A case study of the Huai River Basin, Eastern China, Water, 10(4), 493, doi:10.3390/w10040493, 2018. |
5. | Hao, X., S. Zhang, W. Li, W. Duan, G. Fang, Y. Zhang , and B. Guo, The uncertainty of Penman-Monteith method and the energy balance closure problem, Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres, 123(14), 7433-7443, doi:10.1029/2018JD028371, 2018. |
6. | Giménez, P. O., and S. G. García-Galiano, Assessing Regional Climate Models (RCMs) ensemble-driven reference evapotranspiration over Spain, Water, 10(9), 1181, doi:10.3390/w10091181, 2018. |
7. | Storm, M. E., R. Gouws, and L. J. Grobler, Novel measurement and verification of irrigation pumping energy conservation under incentive-based programmes, Journal of Energy in Southern Africa, 29(3), 10–21, doi:10.17159/2413-3051/2018/v29i3a3058, 2018. |
8. | Tam, B. Y., K. Szeto, B. Bonsal, G. Flato, A. J. Cannon, and R. Rong, CMIP5 drought projections in Canada based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Canadian Water Resources Journal, 44(1), 90-107, doi:10.1080/07011784.2018.1537812, 2019. |
9. | Dalezios, N. R., N. Dercas, A. Blanta, and I. N. Faraslis, Remote sensing in water balance modelling for evapotranspiration at a rural watershed in Central Greece, International Journal of Sustainable Agricultural Management and Informatics, 4(3-4), 306-337, doi:10.1504/IJSAMI.2018.099219, 2019. |
10. | Gan, G., Y. Liu, X. Pan, X. Zhao, M. Li, and S. Wang, Testing the symmetric assumption of complementary relationship: A comparison between the linear and nonlinear advection-aridity models in a large ephemeral lake, Water, 11(8), 1574, doi:10.3390/w11081574, 2019. |
11. | Zhang, T., Y. Chen, and K. Tha Paw U, Quantifying the impact of climate variables on reference evapotranspiration in Pearl River Basin, China, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 64(16), 1944-1956, doi:10.1080/02626667.2019.1662021, 2019. |
12. | Hua, D., X. Hao, Y. Zhang, and J. Qin, Uncertainty assessment of potential evapotranspiration in arid areas, as estimated by the Penman-Monteith method, Journal of Arid Land, 12, 166–180, doi:10.1007/s40333-020-0093-7, 2020. |
13. | Shirmohammadi-Aliakbarkhani, Z., and S. F. Saberali, Evaluating of eight evapotranspiration estimation methods in arid regions of Iran, Agricultural Water Management, 239, 106243, doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106243, 2020. |
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18. | Dos Santos, A. A., J. L. M. de Souza, and S. L. K. Rosa, Evapotranspiration with the Moretti-Jerszurki-Silva model for the Brazilian subtropical climate, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 66(16), 2267-2279, doi:10.1080/02626667.2021.1988610, 2021. |
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E. Moschos, G. Manou, P. Dimitriadis, V. Afendoulis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and V. Tsoukala, Harnessing wind and wave resources for a Hybrid Renewable Energy System in remote islands: a combined stochastic and deterministic approach, Energy Procedia, 125, 415–424, doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2017.08.084, 2017.
Wind and wave resources enclose an important portion of the planet’s energy potential. While wind energy has been effectively harnessed through the last decades to substitute other forms of energy production, the utilization of the synergy between wind and wave resource has not yet been adequately investigated. Such a hybrid energy system could prove efficient in covering the needs of non-connected remote islands. A combined deterministic and stochastic methodology is presented in a case study of a remote Aegean island, by assessing a 100-year climate scenario incorporating uncertainty parameters and exploring the possibilities of fully covering its energy demands.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1737/1/documents/wave_procedia.pdf (2296 KB)
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G. Koudouris, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Investigation on the stochastic nature of the solar radiation process, Energy Procedia, 125, 398–404, 2017.
A detailed investigation of the variability of solar radiation can be proven useful towards more efficient and sustainable design of renewable resources systems. In this context, we analyze observations from Athens, Greece and we investigate the marginal distribution of the solar radiation process at a daily and hourly step, the long-term behavior based on the annual scale of the process, as well as the double periodicity (diurnal-seasonal) of the process. Finally, we apply a parsimonious double-cyclostationary stochastic model to generate hourly synthetic time series preserving the marginal statistical characteristics, the double periodicity and the dependence structure of the process.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1736/1/documents/solar_procedia.pdf (804 KB)
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K. Mavroyeoryos, I. Engonopoulos, H. Tyralis, P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Simulation of electricity demand in a remote island for optimal planning of a hybrid renewable energy system, Energy Procedia, 125, 435–442, doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2017.08.095, 2017.
Here we simulate the electrical energy demand in the remote island of Astypalaia. To this end we obtain information regarding the local socioeconomic conditions and energy demand needs. The available hourly demand load data are analyzed at various time scales (hourly, weekly, daily, seasonal). The cross-correlations between the electricity demand load and the mean daily temperature are computed. An exploratory data analysis including all variables is performed to find hidden relationships. Finally, the demand is simulated. The simulation time series will be used in the development of a framework for planning of a hybrid renewable energy system in Astypalaia.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1735/1/documents/energy_demand_procedia.pdf (1370 KB)
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G. Karakatsanis, D. Roussis, Y. Moustakis, N. Gournari, I. Parara, P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Energy, variability and weather finance engineering, Energy Procedia, 125, 389–397, doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2017.08.073, 2017.
Weather derivatives comprise efficient financial tools for managing hydrometeorological uncertainties in various markets. With ~46% utilization by the energy industry, weather derivatives are projected to constitute a critical element for dealing with risks of low and medium impacts –contrary to standard insurance contracts that deal with extreme events. In this context, we design and engineer -via Monte Carlo pricing- a weather derivative for a remote island in Greece -powered by an autonomous diesel-fuelled generator- resembling to a standard call option contract to test the benefits for both the island’s public administration and a bank -as the transaction’s counterparty.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1734/1/documents/weather_finance_procedia.pdf (872 KB)
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M. Chalakatevaki, P. Stamou, S. Karali, V. Daniil, P. Dimitriadis, K. Tzouka, T. Iliopoulou, D. Koutsoyiannis, P. Papanicolaou, and N. Mamassis, Creating the electric energy mix in a non-connected island, Energy Procedia, 125, 425–434, doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2017.08.089, 2017.
As the electric energy in the non-connected islands is mainly produced by oil-fueled power plants, the unit cost is extremely high due to import cost. The integration of renewable resources in the energy mix is essential for reducing the financial and environmental cost. In this work, various energy resources (renewable and fossil fuels) are evaluated using technical, environmental and economic criteria with an emphasis to biomass, pumped hydro storage and replacement of oil power plants. Finally, a synthesis is presented as a toy-model in an Aegean island that satisfies the electric energy demand including base and peak electric loads.
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Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1733/1/documents/electric_mix_energy_procedia.pdf (1118 KB)
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1. | Bakanos, P. I., and K. L. Katsifarakis, Optimizing operation of a large-scale pumped storage hydropower system coordinated with wind farm by means of genetic algorithm, Global Nest Journal, 2019. |
2. | Giudici, F., A. Castelletti, E. Garofalo, M. Giuliani, and H. R. Maier, Dynamic, multi-objective optimal design and operation of water-energy systems for small, off-grid islands, Applied Energy, 250, 605-616, doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.05.084, 2019. |
K. Papoulakos, G. Pollakis, Y. Moustakis, A. Markopoulos, T. Iliopoulou, P. Dimitriadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Efstratiadis, Simulation of water-energy fluxes through small-scale reservoir systems under limited data availability, Energy Procedia, 125, 405–414, doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2017.08.078, 2017.
We present a stochastic approach accounting for input uncertainties within water-energy simulations. The stochastic paradigm, which allows for quantifying the inherent uncertainty of hydrometeorological processes, becomes even more crucial in case of missing or inadequate information. Our scheme uses simplified conceptual models which are subject to significant uncertainties, to generate the inputs of the overall simulation problem. The methodology is tested in a hypothetical hybrid renewable energy system across the small Aegean island of Astypalaia, comprising a pumped-storage reservoir serving multiple water uses, where both inflows and demands are regarded as random variables as result of stochastic inputs and parameters.
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Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1732/1/documents/energy_proc_paper.pdf (2324 KB)
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1. | Pouliasis, G., G. A. Torres-Alves, and O. Morales-Napoles, Stochastic modeling of hydroclimatic processes using vine copulas, Water, 13(16), 2156, doi:10.3390/w13162156, 2021. |
2. | Louloudis, G., E. Louloudis, C. Roumpos, E. Mertiri, G. Kasfikis, and K. Chatzopoulos, Forecasting development of mine pit lake water surface levels based on time series analysis and neural networks, Mine Water and the Environment, 41, 458–474, doi:10.1007/s10230-021-00844-5, 2022. |
C. Pappas, M.D. Mahecha, D.C. Frank, F. Babst, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Ecosystem functioning is enveloped by hydrometeorological variability, Nature Ecology & Evolution, 1, 1263–1270, doi:10.1038/s41559-017-0277-5, 2017.
Terrestrial ecosystem processes, and the associated vegetation carbon dynamics, respond differently to hydrometeorological variability across timescales, and so does our scientific understanding of the underlying mechanisms. Long-term variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle is not yet well constrained and the resulting climate–biosphere feedbacks are highly uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive overview of hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability from hourly to decadal timescales integrating multiple in situ and remote-sensing datasets characterizing extra-tropical forest sites. We find that ecosystem variability at all sites is confined within a hydrometeorological envelope across sites and timescales. Furthermore, ecosystem variability demonstrates long-term persistence, highlighting ecological memory and slow ecosystem recovery rates after disturbances. However, simulation results with state-of-the-art process-based models do not reflect this long-term persistent behaviour in ecosystem functioning. Accordingly, we develop a cross-time-scale stochastic framework that captures hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability. Our analysis offers a perspective for terrestrial ecosystem modelling and paves the way for new model–data integration opportunities in Earth system sciences.
Remarks:
View-only version of the paper can be accessed using the following SharedIt link: http://rdcu.be/vayo
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H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, On the prediction of persistent processes using the output of deterministic models, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 62 (13), 2083–2102, doi:10.1080/02626667.2017.1361535, 2017.
A problem frequently met in engineering hydrology is the forecasting of hydrologic variables conditional on their historical observations and the hindcasts and forecasts of a deterministic model. On the contrary, it is a common practice for climatologists to use the output of general circulation models (GCMs) for the prediction of climatic variables despite their inability to quantify the uncertainty of the predictions. Here we apply the well-established Bayesian Processor of Forecasts (BPF) for forecasting hydroclimatic variables using stochastic models through coupling them with GCMs. We extend the BPF to cases where long-term persistence appears, using the Hurst-Kolmogorov process (HKp, also known as fractional Gaussian noise) and we investigate analytically its properties. We apply the framework to calculate the distributions of the mean annual temperature and precipitation stochastic processes for the time period 2016-2100 in the United States of America conditional on historical observations and the respective output of GCMs.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1727/1/documents/2017HSJ_OnTthePredictionOfPersistentProcesses.pdf (3152 KB)
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Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
1. | Kundzewicz, Z. W., Quo vadis, hydrology?, Hydrological Sciences Journal, doi:10.1080/02626667.2018.1489597, 2018. |
F. Lombardo, E. Volpi, D. Koutsoyiannis, and F. Serinaldi, A theoretically consistent stochastic cascade for temporal disaggregation of intermittent rainfall, Water Resources Research, 53 (6), 4586–4605, doi:10.1002/2017WR020529, 2017.
Generating fine-scale time series of intermittent rainfall that are fully consistent with any give coarse-scale totals is a key and open issue in many hydrological problems. We propose a stationary disaggregation method that simulates rainfall time series with given dependence structure, wet/dry probability, and marginal distribution at a target finer (lower-level) time scale, preserving full consistency with variables at a parent coarser (higher-level) time scale. We account for the intermittent character of rainfall at fine time scales by merging a discrete stochastic representation of intermittency and a continuous one of rainfall depths. This approach yields a unique and parsimonious mathematical framework providing general analytical formulations of mean, variance, and autocorrelation function (ACF) for a mixed-type stochastic process in terms of mean, variance, and ACFs of both continuous and discrete components, respectively. To achieve the full consistency between variables at finer and coarser time scales in terms of marginal distribution and coarse-scale totals, the generated lower-level series are adjusted according to a procedure that does not affect the stochastic structure implied by the original model. To assess model performance, we study rainfall process as intermittent with both independent and dependent occurrences, where dependence is quantified by the probability that two consecutive time intervals are dry. In either case, we provide analytical formulations of main statistics of our mixed-type disaggregation model and show their clear accordance with Monte Carlo simulations. An application to rainfall time series from real world is shown as a proof of concept.
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A. Tegos, H. Tyralis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and K. H. Hamed, An R function for the estimation of trend signifcance under the scaling hypothesis- application in PET parametric annual time series, Open Water Journal, 4 (1), 66–71, 6, 2017.
We present an R function for testing the significant trend of time series. Te function calculates trend significance using a modified Mann-Kendall test, which takes into account the well-known physical behavior of the Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics. Te function is tested at 10 stations in Greece, with approximately 50 years of PET data with the use of a recent parametric approach. A significant downward trend was detected at two stations. Te R software is now suitable for extensive use in several fields of the scientific community, allowing a physical consistent of a trend analysis.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1703/1/documents/2017OW_An_R_FunctionForTrendSignificance.pdf (326 KB)
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See also: http://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/openwater/vol4/iss1/6/
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H. Tyralis, A. Tegos, A. Delichatsiou, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A perpetually interrupted interbasin water transfer as a modern Greek drama: Assessing the Acheloos to Pinios interbasin water transfer in the context of integrated water resources management, Open Water Journal, 4 (1), 113–128, 12, 2017.
Interbasin water transfer is a primary instrument of water resources management directly related with the integrated development of the economy, society and environment. Here we assess the project of the interbasin water transfer from the river Acheloos to the river Pinios basin which has intrigued the Greek society, the politicians and scientists for decades. Te set of criteria we apply originate from a previous study reviewing four interbasin water transfers and assessing whether an interbasin water transfer is compatible with the concept of integrated water resources management. In this respect, we assess which of the principles of the integrated water resources management the Acheloos to Pinios interbasin water transfer project does or does not satisfy. While the project meets the criteria of real surplus and deficit, of sustainability and of sound science, i.e., the criteria mostly related to the engineering part, it fails to meet the criteria of good governance and balancing of existing rights with needs, i.e., the criteria associated with social aspects of the project. Te non-fulfillment of the latter criteria is the consequence of chronic diseases of the Greek society, which become obvious in the case study
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1702/1/documents/2017OW_AcheloosToPiniosInterbasinWaterTransfer.pdf (2744 KB)
See also: http://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/openwater/vol4/iss1/11/
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I. Deligiannis, P. Dimitriadis, Ο. Daskalou, Y. Dimakos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Global investigation of double periodicity οf hourly wind speed for stochastic simulation; application in Greece, Energy Procedia, 97, 278–285, doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2016.10.001, 2016.
The wind process is considered an important hydrometeorological process and one of the basic resources of renewable energy. In this paper, we analyze the double periodicity of wind, i.e., daily and annual, for numerous wind stations with hourly data around the globe and we develop a four-parameter model. Additionally, we apply this model to several stations in Greece and we estimate their marginal characteristics and stochastic structure best described by an extended-Pareto marginal probability function and a Hurst-Kolmogorov process, respectively.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1671/1/documents/1-s2.0-S187661021630947X-main.pdf (3319 KB)
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Y. Markonis, S. C. Batelis, Y. Dimakos, E. C. Moschou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall over Greece, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, doi:10.1007/s00704-016-1878-7, 2016.
Recent studies have showed that there is a significant decrease in rainfall over Greece during the last half of the pervious century, following an overall decrease of the precipitation at the eastern Mediterranean. However, during the last decade an increase in rainfall was observed in most regions of the country, contrary to the general circulation climate models forecasts. An updated high-resolution dataset of monthly sums and annual daily maxima records derived from 136 stations during the period 1940 – 2012 allowed us to present some new evidence for the observed change and its statistical significance. The statistical framework used to determine the significance of the slopes in annual rain was not limited to the time independency assumption (Mann-Kendall test), but we also investigated the effect of short- and long-term persistence through Monte Carlo simulation. Our findings show that (a) change occurs in different scales; most regions show a decline since 1950, an increase since 1980 and remain stable during the last 15 years, (b) the significance of the observed decline is highly dependent to the statistical assumptions used; there are indications that the Mann-Kendall test may be the least suitable method and (c) change in time is strongly linked with the change in space; for scales below 40 years relatively close regions may develop even opposite trends, while in larger scales change is more uniform.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1878-7
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Y. Markonis, A. N. Angelakis, J. Christy, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Climatic variability and the evolution of water technologies in Crete, Hellas, Water History, 8 (2), 137–157, doi:10.1007/s12685-016-0159-9, 2016.
The Greek island of Crete is one of the southernmost regions of Europe with a long and rich history, which begins as early as ca. 3200 BC with the onset of the Minoan civilization. The archeological findings of well-designed water supply and sewerage systems in the Minoan Palaces and other settlements, with impressive architecture and high-level functionality, suggest a good degree of understanding of the basic water management techniques well before the scientific achievements of our times. Here we document characteristic examples of the ancient hydraulic works and the related hydro-technologies throughout the history of Crete. We summarize the pressures on the water resources in Crete in connection with climatic variability and investigate how and what could be learned from the past using recent findings and paleoclimatology. The reconstructions of the Eastern Mediterranean and more specifically of the Cretan climate using different proxy data (e.g. sediment, pollen, and historical archives) demonstrate a series of alternating periods with varying climatic characteristics with fluctuation lengths spanning from a few decades to many centuries. The synthesis of the on-going research on past climate offers the opportunity to create a picture of the Cretan climatic regime for the last 10,000 years, which could be useful to both hydrologists and archeologists. As the past is the key to the future, the information provided could help in developing modern integrated and sustainable water management plans.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12685-016-0159-9
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Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
1. | Angelakis, A. N., G. Antoniou, K. Voudouris, N. Kazakis, N. Delazios, and N. Dercas, History of floods in Greece: causes and measures for protection, Natural Hazards, doi:10.1007/s11069-020-03898-w, 2020. |
S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A global survey on the seasonal variation of the marginal distribution of daily precipitation, Advances in Water Resources, 94, 131–145, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2016.05.005, 2016.
To characterize the seasonal variation of the marginal distribution of daily precipitation, it is important to find which statistical characteristics of daily precipitation actually vary the most from month-to-month and which could be regarded to be invariant. Relevant to the latter issue is the question whether there is a single model capable to describe effectively the nonzero daily precipitation for every month worldwide. To study these questions we introduce and apply a novel test for seasonal variation (SV-Test) and explore the performance of two flexible distributions in a massive analysis of approximately 170,000 monthly daily precipitation records at more than 14,000 stations from all over the globe. The analysis indicates that: (a) the shape characteristics of the marginal distribution of daily precipitation, generally, vary over the months, (b) commonly used distributions such as the Exponential, Gamma, Weibull, Lognormal, and the Pareto, are incapable to describe “universally” the daily precipitation, (c) exponential-tail distributions like the Exponential, mixed Exponentials or the Gamma can severely underestimate the magnitude of extreme events and thus may be a wrong choice, and (d) the Burr type XII and the Generalized Gamma distributions are two good models, with the latter performing exceptionally well.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2016.05.005
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D. Koutsoyiannis, G. Blöschl, A. Bardossy, C. Cudennec, D. Hughes, A. Montanari, I. Neuweiler, and H. H. G. Savenije, Joint Editorial: Fostering innovation and improving impact assessment for journal publications in hydrology, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61 (7), 1170–1173, doi:10.1080/02626667.2016.1162953, 2016.
The Joint Editorial was published in:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1603/1/documents/2016Joint_editorial_Fostering_innovation.pdf.pdf (235 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2016.1162953
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D. Koutsoyiannis, M. Acreman, A. Castellarin, H. H. G. Savenije, C. Cudennec, G. Blöschl, G. Young, A. Montanari, and F. Watkins, Should auld acquaintance be forgot? Comment on “Farewell, HSJ!—address from the retiring editor” by Z.W. Kundzewicz, Hydrological Sciences Journal, doi:10.1080/02626667.2016.1150032, 2016.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1602/1/documents/2016HSJ_ShouldAuldAcquaintanceBeForgot.pdf (72 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2016.1150032
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P. Dimitriadis, A. Tegos, A. Oikonomou, V. Pagana, A. Koukouvinos, N. Mamassis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Efstratiadis, Comparative evaluation of 1D and quasi-2D hydraulic models based on benchmark and real-world applications for uncertainty assessment in flood mapping, Journal of Hydrology, 534, 478–492, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.01.020, 2016.
One-dimensional and quasi-two-dimensional hydraulic freeware models (HEC-RAS, LISFLOOD-FP and FLO-2d) are widely used for flood inundation mapping. These models are tested on a benchmark test with a mixed rectangular-triangular channel cross section. Using a Monte-Carlo approach, we employ extended sensitivity analysis by simultaneously varying the input discharge, longitudinal and lateral gradients and roughness coefficients, as well as the grid cell size. Based on statistical analysis of three output variables of interest, i.e. water depths at the inflow and outflow locations and total flood volume, we investigate the uncertainty enclosed in different model configurations and flow conditions, without the influence of errors and other assumptions on topography, channel geometry and boundary conditions. Moreover, we estimate the uncertainty associated to each input variable and we compare it to the overall one. The outcomes of the benchmark analysis are further highlighted by applying the three models to real-world flood propagation problems, in the context of two challenging case studies in Greece.
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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